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covid will trash the 2021 cap.
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 879456"><p>I'm not sure either which is why I said "might". I do recall an Olympics some ways back, maybe in the 1990's, where the TV ratings were particularly bad. I don't recall the year or circumstances. The network rebated a portion of the ad revenue to the advertisers and ended up taking a bath on the broadcasts. I don't recall if the IOC ended up rebating the network.</p><p></p><p>The point being, whether an Olympics deal or a long term NFL TV deal, a network is buying into content over which it has little control extending far into the future. I would expect networks to negotiate in advance some adjustments to NFL rights payments based on a minimum ratings threshold. If so, I would expect the NFL to negotiate an upward tilt to rights payments if ratings came in above some benchmark.</p><p></p><p>I wouldn't expect adjustments made week-to-week, but it would stand to reason that particularly good or bad ratings in one season would be reflected in ad costs and flow through to NFL revenue the next season.</p><p></p><p>That's a speculation. I base that on what would make sense. It may not be the case.</p><p></p><p></p><p>As you know, I share your side of the argument that Rodgers is still an elite QB regardless of what the superficial stats may say. That said, I think your proposal is a bridge too far, piling more dead cap into more out years. It makes 2021 more palatable but 2022 is already a problem in a year where the cap should be expected to be flat, give or take, relative to this year with this spread of losses over 4 years.</p><p></p><p>Before Covid-19, we might have expected the cap to go up $20-$30 mil in the mean time going into 2022, not so now. I think you'd have to do something with his 2022 numbers as well, but you'd then be pushing a lot of dead cap into years where he'd be turning 41 and 42 years of age.</p><p></p><p>Alternatively, more risk can be taken on with other players, more backloading than would otherwise be prudent in a Clark second contract or extensions/renegotiations with other players such as Adams in a contract year with a $12 mil base salary.</p><p></p><p>One thing's for sure. Under a $175 mil 2021 cap, if that's where it lands, pain and/or excessive risk cannot be avoided. The "good" news is most teams are in the same boat to one degree or another. Of course Belichick has only $124 mil in contract commitments for 2021. He might be able to snap up a bunch of decent guys on cheap deals who can't find work on the usual terms. <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/whistling.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":whistling:" title="Whistling :whistling:" data-shortname=":whistling:" /></p><p></p><p>On thing's for sure. If stacking good players on cheap rookie deals, stacking drafts, was critical to winning before, it is now essential.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 879456"] I'm not sure either which is why I said "might". I do recall an Olympics some ways back, maybe in the 1990's, where the TV ratings were particularly bad. I don't recall the year or circumstances. The network rebated a portion of the ad revenue to the advertisers and ended up taking a bath on the broadcasts. I don't recall if the IOC ended up rebating the network. The point being, whether an Olympics deal or a long term NFL TV deal, a network is buying into content over which it has little control extending far into the future. I would expect networks to negotiate in advance some adjustments to NFL rights payments based on a minimum ratings threshold. If so, I would expect the NFL to negotiate an upward tilt to rights payments if ratings came in above some benchmark. I wouldn't expect adjustments made week-to-week, but it would stand to reason that particularly good or bad ratings in one season would be reflected in ad costs and flow through to NFL revenue the next season. That's a speculation. I base that on what would make sense. It may not be the case. As you know, I share your side of the argument that Rodgers is still an elite QB regardless of what the superficial stats may say. That said, I think your proposal is a bridge too far, piling more dead cap into more out years. It makes 2021 more palatable but 2022 is already a problem in a year where the cap should be expected to be flat, give or take, relative to this year with this spread of losses over 4 years. Before Covid-19, we might have expected the cap to go up $20-$30 mil in the mean time going into 2022, not so now. I think you'd have to do something with his 2022 numbers as well, but you'd then be pushing a lot of dead cap into years where he'd be turning 41 and 42 years of age. Alternatively, more risk can be taken on with other players, more backloading than would otherwise be prudent in a Clark second contract or extensions/renegotiations with other players such as Adams in a contract year with a $12 mil base salary. One thing's for sure. Under a $175 mil 2021 cap, if that's where it lands, pain and/or excessive risk cannot be avoided. The "good" news is most teams are in the same boat to one degree or another. Of course Belichick has only $124 mil in contract commitments for 2021. He might be able to snap up a bunch of decent guys on cheap deals who can't find work on the usual terms. :whistling: On thing's for sure. If stacking good players on cheap rookie deals, stacking drafts, was critical to winning before, it is now essential. [/QUOTE]
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