Cobb Replacement?

[HardRightEdge]

There's not much in the way of slot receivers on the current roster if Cobb departs.

Has anybody mentioned Tyler Lockett yet?

At 5'10", 182 lbs. he'll need to bulk up...that's about 10 lbs. under Cobb's Combine's weight at about 1/2" shorter height. The other question mark is his small hands...8 3/8" (compared to Cobb at 9 3/8"). His slight-ish build projects him as a 3rd. - 4th. round pick. He might go lower with the ton of receivers this year projected 3rd. round and higher.

Weight and hand size aside, he's a polished route runner, shows soft hands, ran a 4.40 and posted an impressive 35.5" vertical. In fact, he outperformed all of Cobb's workout numbers except the 225 bench press; I don't see a number for Lockett so I presume he did not lift.

Here's some tape:

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I was especially impressed with the 2 plays beginning around 1:45...the swim under the CB and the double move jock strap hanger. The punt return at 3:15 sliding off the tackles is an encouraging indication he might play bigger than his size.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Well, I'd rather not think about this unless it happens, but that move around 2 minutes in was ridiculous!

 

[7thFloorRA]

He is packer material too. I have heard great things about the young man.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I didn't even look at his stats until now:

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tyler-lockett-1/splits/2014/

Highly productive; all-time K-State receiving yardage leader. The more I look at this guy the more I like him. Even if Cobb is signed and he's still around in the 4th. round, I wouldn't mind seeing him taken for 4 and 5 wide sets and kick returns.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would actually prefer Philipp Dorsett out of Miami if we really would have to find a replacement for Cobb.

 

[Vrill]

Repeat after me "Cobb is staying"

Hes not going anywhere folks.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I would actually prefer Philipp Dorsett out of Miami if we really would have to find a replacement for Cobb.

Dorsett looks more explosive...I see a lot of vertical routes and bubble screens where Miami wanted him with the ball in space. He throws the ball too. More the Harvin-type multi-tool. Lockett is more Cobb-like as the more polished route runner. They both have put numbers in the return game. Both, interestingly, they both like to block despite their small stature.

I wouldn't mind seeing either guy taken in the 3rd. - 4th. even if Cobb is signed and other immediate needs are met.

However, if Cobb walks I'd prefer Lockett as a guy who'd contribute sooner in the offense as we know it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Repeat after me "Cobb is staying"

Hes not going anywhere folks.

We'd certainly hope so.

Agents can begin FA negotiations on March 7. If there's no deal by then, Cobb will be testing the market. Cobb may simply be asking for more than Thompson is willing to pay. Maybe Thompson doesn't blink this time as he did with Shields? Maybe he sticks by the offer on the table as with Jennings? We'll have a better idea in two weeks time; I would consider a deal likely but hardly a lock.

I hate to say it, but addressing the defensive holes is a greater priority. That may prove to be rather expensive. Bulaga is a priority as well. The #2 and #3 QB positions need to be addressed, adding a couple milion to the cap. The draftees are another couple million against the cap. And frankly, there's not much depth across the roster making veteran cuts to free cap space unlikely. The only vet still on the chopping block is Hawk, and a decent vet replacement would eat that up that cap space.

$30 mil in cap space could go pretty quickly, and Thompson likes to keep at least $5 mil in cap in reserve, which is prudent. Guys who go to IR count against cap; if you spend up to the cap there's little wiggle room to bring a replacement.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Dorsett looks more explosive...I see a lot of vertical routes and bubble screens where Miami wanted him with the ball in space. He throws the ball too. More the Harvin-type multi-tool. Lockett is more Cobb-like as the more polished route runner. They both have put numbers in the return game. Both, interestingly, they both like to block despite their small stature.

I wouldn't mind seeing either guy taken in the 3rd. - 4th. even if Cobb is signed and other immediate needs are met.

However, if Cobb walks I'd prefer Lockett as a guy who'd contribute sooner in the offense as we know it.

I agree that Lockett is the more polished route runner but I'm a little concerned about his lack of size and the ability to beat press coverage in the NFL.

But overall I wouldn't mind spending a mid-round pick on him either.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

We'd certainly hope so.

Agents can begin FA negotiations on March 7. If there's no deal by then, Cobb will be testing the market. Cobb may simply be asking for more than Thompson is willing to pay. Maybe Thompson doesn't blink this time as he did with Shields? Maybe he sticks by the offer on the table as with Jennings? We'll have a better idea in two weeks time; I would consider a deal likely but hardly a lock.

I hate to say it, but addressing the defensive holes is a greater priority. That may prove to be rather expensive. Bulaga is a priority as well. The #2 and #3 QB positions need to be addressed, adding a couple milion to the cap. The draftees are another couple million against the cap. And frankly, there's not much depth across the roster making veteran cuts to free cap space unlikely. The only vet still on the chopping block is Hawk, and a decent vet replacement would eat that up that cap space.

$30 mil in cap space could go pretty quickly, and Thompson likes to keep at least $5 mil in cap in reserve, which is prudent. Guys who go to IR count against cap; if you spend up to the cap there's little wiggle room to bring a replacement.

It's possible to structure contracts in a certain way though to not absord a huge cap hit during the first few years of a deal. $30 million in cap space should be more than enough to re-sign Cobb and Bulaga and still have some wiggle room to address other positions of need.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I agree that Lockett is the more polished route runner but I'm a little concerned about his lack of size and the ability to beat press coverage in the NFL.

But overall I wouldn't mind spending a mid-round pick on him either.

Dorsett measured at 5' 9 5/8", 185 lbs. Lockett measured the exact same height, 182 lbs. There's nothing to differentiate them on size.

Dorsett did 13 lifts; Lockett didn't lift...something about a lingering shoulder injury.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Dorsett measured at 5' 9 5/8", 185 lbs. Lockett measured the exact same height, 182 lbs. There's nothing to differentiate them on size.

Dorsett did 13 lifts; Lockett didn't lift...something about a lingering shoulder injury.

Oh well, I took the numbers from CBS and it seems they still had the pre-combine measurements on it with Dorsett being two inches taller than Lockett. Dorsett (9 3/8) hands are significantly bigger than Lockett´s (8 3/8) though.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Oh well, I took the numbers from CBS and it seems they still had the pre-combine measurements on it with Dorsett being two inches taller than Lockett. Dorsett (9 3/8) hands are significantly bigger than Lockett´s (8 3/8) though.

Yeah, I noted the hand size earlier. It's a bit of a concern. But Lockett shows soft hands and good hand strength; K-State's QB is zipping some balls in those clips and I don't see any bobble in his catches.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It's possible to structure contracts in a certain way though to not absord a huge cap hit during the first few years of a deal. $30 million in cap space should be more than enough to re-sign Cobb and Bulaga and still have some wiggle room to address other positions of need.

Sure, deferring the cap hit in a contract with a big signing bonus is a tried and true method of deferring a cap squeeze. But it's a deferral. It is not a get-out-of-jail-free card; more like a balloon loan. It's how teams like SF get themselves in the pickle they're in.

A couple of mil for the draft picks and $5 mil in reserve effectively takes the number down to around $23 mil.

We're also talking about a couple of cover corners, a couple of D-Linemen, a couple of ILBs, a couple of backup QBs...you can't get close to getting that done in the draft.

The best argument in favor of getting it all done is that there's only one core player hitting FA in 2016 (Daniels), so year two of whatever current deals get done could be a little heftier than otherwise avoiding big hits down the road.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Sure, deferring the cap hit in a contract with a big signing bonus is a tried and true method of deferring a cap squeeze. But it's a deferral. It is not a get-out-of-jail-free card; more like a balloon loan. It's how teams like SF get themselves in the pickle they're in.

A couple of mil for the draft picks and $5 mil in reserve effectively takes the number down to around $23 mil.

We're also talking about a couple of cover corners, a couple of D-Linemen, a couple of ILBs, a couple of backup QBs...you can't get close to getting that done in the draft.

The best argument in favor of getting it all done is that there's only one core player hitting FA in 2016 (Daniels), so year two of whatever current deals get done could be a little heftier than otherwise avoiding big hits down the road.

The Packers are backloading contracts as well, just take a look in the increased cap hit after either one or two years with Rodgers, Matthews, Shields and Nelson.

Last season the team had a lot of luck with injuries so they didn't need any additional cap space for replacements. But I agree you can't count on that to happen every single year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers are backloading contracts as well, just take a look in the increased cap hit after either one or two years with Rodgers, Matthews, Shields and Nelson.

Last season the team had a lot of luck with injuries so they didn't need any additional cap space for replacements. But I agree you can't count on that to happen every single year.

Rodgers cap is relatively flat for the duration given it's a $20 mil per year deal...$17.5 mil in 2014 ramping gradually to $21.1 in 2019. Successively, each of those other deals are progressively more back loaded, with Nelson going from $4.6 mil in 2014 to $12.5 mil in 2018. Back loading is not a problem now, but it can turn into a slippery slope.

It would be unreasonable to expect a repeat of the low injury count last year. Aside from Raji, missed starts were very low.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Rodgers cap is relatively flat for the duration given it's a $20 mil per year deal...$17.5 mil in 2014 ramping gradually to $21.1 in 2019. Successively, each of those other deals are progressively more back loaded, with Nelson going from $4.6 mil in 2014 to $12.5 mil in 2018. Back loading is not a problem now, but it can turn into a slippery slope.

Rodgers signed his extension in the 2013 offseason and counted only $12 million against the cap that year, so there's a pretty steep increase in his deal as well.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Rodgers signed his extension in the 2013 offseason and counted only $12 million against the cap that year, so there's a pretty steep increase in his deal as well.

Water under the bridge.