Forums
New posts
Search forums
What's new
New posts
New media
New media comments
New resources
Latest activity
Media
New media
New comments
Search media
Resources
Latest reviews
Search resources
Members
Current visitors
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
New posts
Search forums
Menu
Log in
Register
Install the app
Install
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Challenging conventional wisdom (Cowboys/Giants finish)
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Reply to thread
Message
<blockquote data-quote="adambr2" data-source="post: 623005" data-attributes="member: 7277"><p>I'll assign some (I think fair) odd values to assess chances of a certain event happening when a choice is made. Obviously, very rough and arbitrary estimates.</p><p></p><p>Converting 4th and goal from the 1: 50%</p><p>Winning the game if you convert 4th and goal: 100%</p><p>Making chip shot FG/XP: 100%</p><p>Dallas driving 70 yards in hurry up offense in 1:30: 30%</p><p>Dallas driving 99 yards in hurry up offense in 1:30: 10%</p><p>Bailey making FG of 40+: 80%</p><p>Giants win in OT: 50%</p><p></p><p>At these estimates, the Giants have about a 90% chance of winning the game if they decide to go for it on 4th down. In 100 scenarios, they will immediately win 50 by converting. In 5 of the remaining 50, they will lose in regulation. Of the remaining 45, they will successfully stop about 32 of these. 13 will come down to a FG, and Bailey will covert 11 of these, so 11 will go to overtime, and the Cowboys will win 5-6 in addition to the 5 they already won in regulation by going 99 yards, giving the Giants about an 89.5% chance of winning if they decide to go for the 4th down.</p><p></p><p>By kicking the FG, it's simple, they have a 30% chance of losing the game. Congratulations Giants, you reduced your chances of winning from 90% to 70% by MAKING a field goal!</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 623005, member: 7277"] I'll assign some (I think fair) odd values to assess chances of a certain event happening when a choice is made. Obviously, very rough and arbitrary estimates. Converting 4th and goal from the 1: 50% Winning the game if you convert 4th and goal: 100% Making chip shot FG/XP: 100% Dallas driving 70 yards in hurry up offense in 1:30: 30% Dallas driving 99 yards in hurry up offense in 1:30: 10% Bailey making FG of 40+: 80% Giants win in OT: 50% At these estimates, the Giants have about a 90% chance of winning the game if they decide to go for it on 4th down. In 100 scenarios, they will immediately win 50 by converting. In 5 of the remaining 50, they will lose in regulation. Of the remaining 45, they will successfully stop about 32 of these. 13 will come down to a FG, and Bailey will covert 11 of these, so 11 will go to overtime, and the Cowboys will win 5-6 in addition to the 5 they already won in regulation by going 99 yards, giving the Giants about an 89.5% chance of winning if they decide to go for the 4th down. By kicking the FG, it's simple, they have a 30% chance of losing the game. Congratulations Giants, you reduced your chances of winning from 90% to 70% by MAKING a field goal! [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Verification
Post reply
Members online
Catamount1971
Todd Princl
edensmage
Packer Fan in SD
weeds
Latest posts
2024 draft discussion thread
Latest: Todd Princl
4 minutes ago
Draft Talk
2024 Draft-- Media Stuff
Latest: Todd Princl
7 minutes ago
Draft Talk
Posting draft picks
Latest: lambeaulambo
34 minutes ago
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
The 11th Annual Amish Draft Contest 2024
Latest: Dantés
Today at 5:09 PM
Draft Talk
2024 Draft Prospect Discussions
Latest: thequick12
Today at 4:34 PM
Draft Talk
Forums
Open Football Discussion
Green Bay Packers Fan Forum
Challenging conventional wisdom (Cowboys/Giants finish)
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
Accept
Learn more…
Top