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Building through the draft AND ADDING key pieces via Free agency

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by rodell330, Jan 22, 2014.

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  1. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    It's cool, the season is over and alot of us are board. If you think it's crazy now wait a couple months haha.
     
  2. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    You act like this is my 1st year here smh
     
  3. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Wolf has a better record 92-52 to TT's 85-75-1. They both have 1 SB. Right now, after 9 years, TT has the Packers in a much better situation than Wolf's 2001 Packers. Wolf's team was getting old and didn't have much depth. One has to wonder if not signing so many FAs would have prolonged the Packer success under Wolf. All and all, I would say that Thompson is the better GM.

    Some will point out that the defense was much better under Wolf, and that is difficult to argue against. One can also point out that Thompson's offense is better than anything Wolf put together.
     
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  4. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I agree it's an excellent cap site, one I've referenced many times.

    Regarding the $28 million in cap space:

    1. First, about $10 mil of that is carryover of unused 2013 cap. We can't spend up to the $136 mil cap limit because of the inevitable hangover in subsequent years when we drop down to $126 mil (plus any annual bumps).

    2. There's the cost of the rookie class less the cost of the guys whose places they take...around $2 million.

    3. Some money needs to be held in reserve for mid-year injury replacement signings.

    4. We've got Nelson, Cobb and Bulaga coming up for free agency in 2015...that's a very large amount.

    These points are highlighted in the cap cost scouting report you referenced, which I agree is an interesting piece and mostly spot on.

    However, the writer argues that EDS should be our priority FA signing, expecting to cost $4 mil per year with a mid-tier center contract. At the same time, he pegs Shields for Arrington money, also about $4 million per year.

    I think even the most ardent EDS fans would agree Shields presents much greater relative value. And if the Packers are offering Arrington money, then it's no surprise they're having trouble getting him signed. I think the amounts the writer attached to these two players are meaningfully out of line.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
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  5. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Jordy and Cobb will cost a lot as each is a special talent.
    Bulaga better not be anywhere near their range.
    The guy has played for 4 seasons and missed about half the time.
    He was far from a franchise OT when in there. Against Seattle last year, he looked a lot like.... well..... Marshall Newhouse.

    Bulaga should be affordable.

    But that's right, the point is the Packers are fiscally conservative and they don't blow all their cap space ahead of time.... they will be in decent-good shape next year and the year after, because they are prudent now.

    That's why I forecasted us to painfully lose Shields. He's great and a rare talent, about a top-10 cover corner and young.
    He's far harder to replace than EDS will be.

    It's like replacing Nick Collins.
    Sure we put guys in his shoes. Teddy drafted his diamond in the rough Jerron McMillian, reaching way up high for an undrafted graded guy..... but you cannot adequately replace a rare talent like Shields, with that speed and those ball skills.
    Just like Collins.

    I still think Shields has about a 55% chance of bolting for higher dollars elsewhere.
     
  6. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    amen frank...jordy and cobb are both the real deal. this coming year has the makings of a special season.
     
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Frank -

    You underrate Bulaga. While his brain-fart, 3-sack first half against Seattle was surely dreadful, it was notable as a rank exception. He was among the best RT's in the league in 2011, and excepting the Seattle game again in 2012 up to the injury. He has played exceptionally well when healthy.

    MM said he graded out as an All Pro after 2012. That's an overstatement but it gives you some idea of how he's valued.

    If he returns to form, he will cost a goodly sum of money. And if he returns to form on the left side, add that much more.

    If one assumes we must keep either Shields or Williams at a minimum, the idea of letting Shields walk vs. dumping Williams to pick up $7.5 million in cap space borders on unconscionable. The odds, in the end, are that TT blinks and gets Shields signed.
     
    Last edited: Jan 22, 2014
  8. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    No, you want us to trade 3 1st round picks and several 2s for a top 5 draft pick. Then you want us to make a major splash in FA. Then I get to read you bashing ted because we didnt have any $ to sign Cobb and Nelson to extensions.

    You wanna discuss if TT is good at what he does or isnt? Ok, go look around the league and see his "GM tree". Its starting to resemble Holmgrens coaching tree (which comes from Paul Brown but I digress).
     
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  9. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I'm a very big Bulaga fan. A lot of that can be attributed to the play-calling in the first half of that Seattle game. The Packers ran the ball something like 5 times. Seattle was able to pin their ears back and just rush the passer all game.
     
  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Injury replacements won´t increase the cap because they will earn less than the guys they have to replace.

    There´s no way I want EDS back if he´s asking for $4 million a year. On the other hand I would be excited to get Shields for $4 million, but that won´t happen.
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I think it´s possible to keep Shields and Williams, which contract has to be restructured for that to happen though.
     
  12. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Finding a quality player to fill a hole in the defense hardly qualifies as a splash. I wouldnt mind bringing in a guy like Bernard Pollard. If i said orakpo then yes that would be a splash but i'm not saying spend booku money on free agents.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2014
  13. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    It's my understanding that under the new CBA the guys on IR count toward the cap during the league year. Once the league year ends, only the top 51 count.

    On second glance, the overthecap.com numbers cited previously exclude Bulaga and Heyward from their cap numbers which include the top 51 non-IR players. Those 2 guys will count about $2.9 mil against the cap in 2014. If you reckon those two guys will bump a couple of the young minimum salary guys out of the top 51, then the available cap amount previously cited is overstated by about $2 mil.
     
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  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I don't think there's any excuse for that first half against Seattle. But that's neither here nor there. You don't crap on talent based on one bad half.
     
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  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Those guys are better characterized as coming out of the "Ron Wolf tree".
     
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  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I´m sorry, I was wrong about that. A player on IR still counts against the cap, the only way that number is reduced is if that players signed a split contract (which would only apply for late-round to undrafted rookie contracts and veteran-minimum guys).
     
  17. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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  18. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    well there you go?
     
  19. dchen46

    dchen46 Cheesehead

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    I thought that EDS did pretty well this season. 4 million isn't too much for a center either
     
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  20. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    It is when you can save it...don't be shocked if Lang is moved to center and Tretter to guard with Bulaga or Bahk occupying RT. We need all the money we can save as Shields and Jones are higher priorities to re-sign then EDS in my opinion.
     
  21. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Perfect. You suggest moving Tretter to guard without having seen him play a single snap. He's practiced a few weeks. No one knows anything about this guy. But, it's an easy move for you to suggest flippantly now.

    If he doesn't pan out, though, you will shred TT apart for failing in drafting him, failing to resign and/or being cheap in not resigning EDS, and/or failing to sign a veteran C to man the important C spot on the offense.

    Love it.

    Aside from this logic, I disagree with this assessment. EDS is more valuable than JJ. Our line has the chance to be very good next year if Bulaga returns to form and can stay healthy for us at RT. EDS has Rodgers' trust and has shown that he's more than capable in manning that spot. And just as importantly, he's a young guy, with only one full year of starting at C, that is bound to improve. JJ is on the wrong side of 30 and we have Boykin, who reminds me an awful lot of JJ. Plus, we have to resign Cobb and Jordy next year.
     
  22. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    You are entitled to your opinion :) besides i've seen film on Tretter coming out and i like the guy...i think he's going to be a good linemen. Have a nice day.
     
  23. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Because players that looked good on film have always panned out. Come on, Man!

    I hope you're right. But if not and that is the starting O-Line, that means we have Lang playing a position he's not comfortable and best at playing, and then an untested commodity at guard that is not playing up to par. The line would be a huge sieve then. Can't take that risk.
     
  24. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Justin Harrell looked great on film coming out as well.
     
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I don't care what Barnwell says. Check the bios for these guys. They got their starts and earned their chops under Wolf long before TT took the reins. When TT says, "we're just doing what Ron Wolf taught us", that's not just false modesty.

    Barnwell obliquely makes this point, contradicting himself somewhat by saying, "Reggie McKenzie (Oakland) and John Schneider (Seattle) emanating from the same Green Bay scouting department that birthed Thompson. That department, under the auspices of legendary personnel man Ron Wolf...."

    McKenzie started in scouting with Wolf in 1994 only two years after TT started in scouting...11 years under Wolf before TT took the reins. Enough said there.

    Dorsey started in scouting with Wolf in 1991, a year before TT. He was Director of Player Personnel in Seattle for Holmgren as far back as 1999.

    Schneider got his start in scouting over 20 years ago. He spent about 10 years working for Wolf polishing his trade, then went off to Cleveland. By the time he came back to the Packers he was already an established, well regarded personnel man. While Schneider is much younger than TT, he started in scouting in 1993 at age 22, one year after TT. TT didn't get started until 1992 at age 39.

    All of these guys are TT's professional contemporaries, not his products.

    TT doesn't have a tree yet. Ironically, the highest guy on his sapling is Eliot Wolf. Other than Ball, you have to go down to the area scout level to find a player personnel guy that TT has hired.

    TT's mentoring legacy will eventually reside with some of the guys who are currently in the personnel department, not the guys who have already left. Even then, most of the guys who were recently promoted up to the front office from the scouting ranks were Wolf hires.
     
    Last edited: Jan 23, 2014
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