Brees versus Rodgers by the Numbers

[longtimefan]

Rodgers is breaking the passer rating record...Yardage is more a combo of the Wr and QB

 

[morningwood]

Of course, San Diego and NO have exactly the same field. Neither have any wind and it never rains on either field .

Last time I checked, Philip Rivers took that Brees team through quite a few playoff trips so I don't think it was loaded with rejects. The first year Brees arrived at NO he went over 4000 yards and never below it. He never topped 4000 in his years at SD. Also, except for 1, his complete pct has been higher in each year than any at SD.

I like Brees and he is good, but he doesn't deserve it over Rodgers this year or even over Brady for that matter.

So, you think the primary factor was the weather in San Diego as opposed to the difference between Marty Ball and a Sean Payton directed offense?

 

[GeeDogWarrior]

that first game this season is like ....idk, an example or whatever that word I can't think of...

Rodgers lights it up for 3 qts, huge 4th qt lead, hands it off to his HBs so we could run out the clock and put the pressure on the other team.

Brees is trailing all game long, padding his stats in the 4th qt against a prevent D and all of a sudden
(according to skip bayless), "Brees outplayed Rodgers in that game!" (other than the whole "losing" part) smh.

 

[morningwood]

LOL at remembering what Skip the Troll Bayless said in September.

 

[weeds]

Know what? I'd take either of those guys on my team without hesitation....I'm not big into the 'homer' stuff, "our" guy versus "their" guy. The only award I'm interested in is that big ol' shiny, sterling silver thing with the football on top of it.

 

[morningwood]

Know what? I'd take either of those guys on my team without hesitation....I'm not big into the 'homer' stuff, "our" guy versus "their" guy. The only award I'm interested in is that big ol' shiny, sterling silver thing with the football on top of it.

Amen brother. I think selecting among these top QB's is splitting hairs, the bottom line is we are all fortuntae enough to watch some of the best QB play ever -- with several playing at an unreal level at the same time. You Packers' fans are fortunate to have one of the elites. As a Saint fan I know how lucky I currently am to have one of the best in the game. I also know that it's entirely possible to go decades without finding another. Enjoy the ride.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

The Rodgers vs. Brees argument is just dumb. Brees has the lead in yardage and a slight lead in completion percentage, but also has 120 more attempts. 120 attempts is roughly 3-4 GAMES worth of passing. And let's not forget that the Packers beat the Saints in Week 1. Rodgers > Brees

 

[weeds]

Yeah...but that was in September - and I didn't think it was a 'decisive' victory. Therefore, I'm not talkin' sh**, haha...... and a great game it was to watch at Lambeau. The Saints fans I met in Curley's Pub were fantastic folks.

 

[Hype]

...is it wrong that i don't want to see A-Rodge win the MVP only cause i know he will play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder

 

[morningwood]

...is it wrong that i don't want to see A-Rodge win the MVP only cause i know he will play with an even bigger chip on his shoulder

I won't judge whether that is wrong, but the thought has crossed my mind. When you think about it Rodgers, Brees and Brady are all driven by chips on their shoulders.

 

[morningwood]

The Rodgers vs. Brees argument is just dumb. Brees has the lead in yardage and a slight lead in completion percentage, but also has 120 more attempts. 120 attempts is roughly 3-4 GAMES worth of passing. And let's not forget that the Packers beat the Saints in Week 1. Rodgers > Brees

I am not sure I follow, are you giving examples of the types of arguments which make this debate dumb?

Does it follow that Kyle Orton is a better QB than Rodgers?

 

[greenandgold]

Too many people worrying about Brees. If the Packers take care of business and win a second straight Championship, how could Rodgers NOT get the MVP?

 

[neilfii]

MVP is regular season only, so the Championship will not even come into play. (At least that is my understanding).

 

[GreenBlood]

I am not sure I follow, are you giving examples of the types of arguments which make this debate dumb?

Does it follow that Kyle Orton is a better QB than Rodgers?

No, it follows that to accurately compare Rodgers and Brees, you have to compensate for number of attempts (which is purely a result of coaching decisions) by extrapolating Rodgers' statistics out as if he had the same number of attempts. Only when you do that are you comparing apples to apples and when you do that, Rodgers destroys Brees. You can try that with Orton too, but his numbers will remain abysmal.

The only efficiency stat that Brees has over Rodgers is completion %, by a little over 2 points. Every single other measure of efficiency (tds/attempt, td:int, int/attempt) is overwhelmingly in Rodgers' favor. That's just the fact of the matter. Sure, you can say this is a dumb argument and either team would be happy to have either QB, but that's not what is being debated here. The MVP voters have to make a decision and after all factors are considered, I think they will overwhelmingly vote for Rodgers based on the stats and wins.

It's also not going to hurt Rodgers if he sits this week. They won't penalize him for taking care of business early enough to not be needed in Week 17.

 

[morningwood]

by extrapolating Rodgers' statistics out as if he had the same number of attempts.

I think with this new way of calculating stats Junior Galette leads the league in sacks.

 

[Ceodore]

No, it follows that to accurately compare Rodgers and Brees, you have to compensate for number of attempts (which is purely a result of coaching decisions) by extrapolating Rodgers' statistics out as if he had the same number of attempts. Only when you do that are you comparing apples to apples and when you do that, Rodgers destroys Brees. You can try that with Orton too, but his numbers will remain abysmal.

The only efficiency stat that Brees has over Rodgers is completion %, by a little over 2 points. Every single other measure of efficiency (tds/attempt, td:int, int/attempt) is overwhelmingly in Rodgers' favor. That's just the fact of the matter.

To show the other side of this argument, Brees completion % is more significant BECAUSE he has thrown so many more passes. He has a completion % and more passes making him even more consistent.

Granted the type of pass comes into play as well. A lot of Brees' passes are dump passes which he should complete a higher percentage of while AR throws a lot more bombs.

 

[bozz_2006]

I think with this new way of calculating stats Junior Galette leads the league in sacks.

Funny. But for QBs this is not new. AP voters have actually been discussing this very thing on NFLN today.

 

[morningwood]

Funny. But for QBs this is not new. AP voters have actually been discussing this very thing on NFLN today.

Hah, I know -- and I can tell you that you know what I said was tounge in cheek. But at the same time, it does sound funny to hear someone basically say, "if you toy with the numbers enough, Rodgers absolutely destroys Drew -- it's not even close." I just don't see how anyone can look at the play of these two QB's and say one is clearly above the other. The differences in the numbers are meaningless IMO. They are both great QB's and the numbers are so close that if one is better than the other, you are not going to find it in the stats.

 

[neilfii]

Stats do matter. That is why they keep them. Your response is the response of one whose "pony" is losing in the stats. In all the statistical categories that matter Rodgers leads Brees. Total yards are meaningless as is evidenced by the fact that our defense has given up total yards in droves and yet we are 14-1. TD's, Int's, those are the most critical, and in those Rodgers leads.
That being said, I do think Brees is playing lights out as well, and that the distance between Rodgers and Brees is not nearly so great as some would believe. I don't think Rodgers blows Brees out of the water, but I do believe Rodgers edges him out, and if we didn't have Rodgers I would be ecstatic to have Brees; he is a great quarterback.

 

[GreenBlood]

I think with this new way of calculating stats Junior Galette leads the league in sacks.

It's nothing new. Statisticians do it all the time to make accurate comparisons. The only requirement is that both players have a statistically significant number of attempts (sample size).

 

[GreenBlood]

Hah, I know -- and I can tell you that you know what I said was tounge in cheek. But at the same time, it does sound funny to hear someone basically say, "if you toy with the numbers enough, Rodgers absolutely destroys Drew -- it's not even close."

It's called "statistical analysis", not "toying with the numbers."

They are both great QB's and the numbers are so close that if one is better than the other, you are not going to find it in the stats.

You most certainly are. I'll try to put in in layman's terms for you. Here is what each of them has done for every 100 pass attempts they have had this year:

Rodgers: 9 touchdowns, 1.2 interceptions, 928 yards.

Brees: 6.6 touchdowns, 1.97 interceptions, 770 yards.

These are the kind of stats the MVP voters will look at to help with their decisions. Add to that Rodgers' 20 game winning streak and the Packers' superior record and there's simply no way an objective person doesn't give the MVP to Rodgers. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

 

[weeds]

Amen brother. I think selecting among these top QB's is splitting hairs, the bottom line is we are all fortuntae enough to watch some of the best QB play ever -- with several playing at an unreal level at the same time. You Packers' fans are fortunate to have one of the elites. As a Saint fan I know how lucky I currently am to have one of the best in the game. I also know that it's entirely possible to go decades without finding another. Enjoy the ride.

Packers fans have been particularly fortunate in that since the early 90's we've had a lock Hall of Famer (now known as TOG, or "the other guy") followed up by Rodgers. If you go back in Packer annals though, names like Scott Hunter...Jerry Tagge...Don Horn...kind of grab you by the throat and make you puke a little bit into your mouth. Haha... I'd go along with the argument that the defenses being as hamstrung as they are by rule changes over the last few years have changed the complexion of the game sooooooooo much, that these guys have a distinct advantage over QB's past. I'm not a real big proponent of today's game because it really has become a matter of "pitch and catch and tackle (maybe)"...but, I know the younger fans love it. So be it...that's what we have.

 

[weeds]

It's called "statistical analysis", not "toying with the numbers."



You most certainly are. I'll try to put in in layman's terms for you. Here is what each of them has done for every 100 pass attempts they have had this year:

Rodgers: 9 touchdowns, 1.2 interceptions, 928 yards.

Brees: 6.6 touchdowns, 1.97 interceptions, 770 yards.

These are the kind of stats the MVP voters will look at to help with their decisions. Add to that Rodgers' 20 game winning streak and the Packers' superior record and there's simply no way an objective person doesn't give the MVP to Rodgers. Sorry if that hurts your feelings.

Unfortunately, "statistical analysis" is all that can be used to compare unrelated physical activity. This type of comparison would hold some validity in reality IF...both teams played the same opponents AT THE SAME TIME. Not possible, to be sure, heck, the two teams don't even play the same opponents in the same season. I've been in banking for 28 years and I can promise you that I can make numbers dance a Texas Two-Step for me if that's what I need at any given moment. Just sayin' ... not criticizing.

 

[GreenBlood]

Unfortunately, "statistical analysis" is all that can be used to compare unrelated physical activity. This type of comparison would hold some validity in reality IF...both teams played the same opponents AT THE SAME TIME. Not possible, to be sure, heck, the two teams don't even play the same opponents in the same season. I've been in banking for 28 years and I can promise you that I can make numbers dance a Texas Two-Step for me if that's what I need at any given moment. Just sayin' ... not criticizing.

We're not talking about obtaining accurate numbers regarding the effectiveness of a new drug here. We're simply talking about how to properly calculate which QB has done his job more efficiently. That's not a "Texas Two-Step".

 

[weeds]

You're entitled to your opinion. By and large, stats only show where you WERE.