Breaking Down the NFC North, 2022 Edition

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I believe most feel that Watson's drops are more of the concentration variety rather than a hands issue.
You’ll often see as part of his evaluation. To be fair, imagine if he cleans those up and gets more targets.
Lucky for us. It’s the main reason he wasn’t drafted before our #22 or #28 selection.
 
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kevans74

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As I do every year after the draft, I want to rank the various positions groups within the division to see where the Packers stack up.

Quarterback: The top two are pretty simple. The Packers have the two time reigning MVP, the Vikings have a good starting QB. But the last two are hard to stack-- you're weighing Goff's floor vs. Fields' ceiling. I went with Goff, but I would not argue either way. However, given how wretched Fields' supporting cast is, I don't think he will look better even if, in a vacuum, he is better.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

Running Back:
This is a really good position across the entire division. I like all four teams at this spot. But GB is #1 for me because both Jones and Dillon are very good, lead back quality players. Dalvin Cook might be better than either, but the Vikings' top 2 isn't on par. I gave the nod to the Bears because Montgomery is more established than Swift, but I don't think there's a big gap.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Tight End:
If you look at the primary TE's across the board, it becomes clear who the top two teams are at this position. Hockenson is emerging as one of the premier players at tight end in the entire league, and he's a complete player. Quietly, Cole Kmet isn't that far behind him. On the bottom end, I gave the nod to GB over Minnesota because the Packers have decent role players at all three spots (Y, H, and F), though Minnesota could have a nice option in Irv Smith Jr. if he comes back healthy in 2022.

1. Lions
2. Bears
3. Packers
4. Vikings

Wide Receiver:
The Vikings easily deserve the top spot here with Jefferson being one of the league's elite young receivers in front of the still useful Adam Thielen and the emerging K.J. Osborn. The emergence of St. Brown in the slot for Detroit helps them a lot here, and they have built around him with Chark and now Jameson Williams. The Packers are #3 for two reasons, one lesser and one greater. The lesser: they have youth and potential on the roster, even if they don't have a ton of proven talent. The greater: the Bears have the worst receiving corps in football.

1. Vikings
2. Lions
3. Packers
4. Bears

Offensive Line:
It goes a little overlooked because the Lions are so bad, but they have a great offensive line. Left to right, Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Vaitai, and Sewell are all proven quality. I love the Packers on the line too, but they are counting more on growth, whereas the Lions have guys who are a year or two ahead of their Packer counterparts. Minnesota has a huge range of outcomes on the line, depending on how well Darrisaw, Bradbury, and Ingram play. They could be above average or horrible. And the Bears have a small range of outcomes: horrible.

1. Lions
2. Packers
3. Vikings
4. Bears

Interior Defense Line:
Kenny Clark has needed help, and he got it. Jarran Reed is a useful veteran who will be better with fewer snaps, Dean Lowry is still capable as a rotational guy, and they're adding the draft's best interior rusher. The Vikings are respectable, able to field a good trio in Tomlinson, Phillips, and Watts. But the Lions and the Bears are both really weak here. Detroit has Brockers and then youngsters who aren't there yet, and the Bears have... no one.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

Edge Rusher:
Green Bay features a high quality starting duo of Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, and they will hope that backups like Garvin, Ramsey, and Enagbare can give them quality snaps as spell players. The Vikings are similar, though I would say with a step down in terms of certainty and ability seeing as how the healthy of Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter is an open question. The Lions could be making a move up this list in a hurry if rookies Hutchinson and Paschal hit. The Bears have an aging Robert Quinn and... ?

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

Linebacker:
If Campbell is even in the neighborhood of the player he was in 2021, then adding Quay Walker could give GB the best duo in the NFL. The Vikings also have a nice group in Kendricks, Hicks, and rookie Asamoah, but Kendricks is starting to fade. The Bears have a high quality player here in Roquan Smith, but very little else (they should trade him). The Lions are nursing along young players who are still in over their heads.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Cornerback:
Given that players take their biggest leaps between years 1 and 2, I think there's a good chance the Green Bay's top 3 at cornerback will be the best in the NFL. There's a steep drop-off after that. The Vikings have Dantzler, who is good, and they added Booth, Evans, and Chandon Sullivan. The Bears have a quality player in Jaylon Johnson and they added that cute ballerina to the lineup. The Lions are a mess at this position, largely because Okudah has not materialized, though they may have something in Oruwariye if he continues to progress.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Safety:
This was a tough call at the top because I still think Harrison Smith is the single best safety in the division, but overall I think Amos-Savage is a better tandem in 2022 than Smith and a rookie Lewis Cine. The Bears could be decent here as they added Brisker, their best draft pick of the weekend, to the position along with the decent but overrated Eddie Jackson. The Lions aren't quite as messy here as at corner or linebacker, but they still aren't very talented.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Overall (Lower is better):
If you think about this division from a broader perspective, this rings true. The Vikings still have a lot of quality pieces, but they're the same quality pieces that couldn't overtake the Packers previously, so they're probably stuck in the same purgatory of being a winning team that cusps between missing the playoffs and losing early in the playoffs. There's an outside chance that Pettine makes them worse than that even. The Lions are on the come, but there are still too many spots (QB, LB, CB, S) where they're really bad for them to compete at this point. And the Bears are in competition with Atlanta for the worst roster in the league. Don't be shocked if they win two games and pick #1 overall next year.

1. Packers: 15
2. Vikings: 22
3. Lions: 29
4. Bears: 34


Spot.on. You could flip WR for Lions and Packers if we signed Julio. It's about even, especially since we signed Watkins, who IS proven too but oft injured

Everything else looks great
 

captainWIMM

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You’ll often see as part of his evaluation. To be fair, imagine if he cleans those up and gets more targets.
Lucky for us. It’s the main reason he wasn’t drafted before our #22 or #28 selection.

I guess Watson playing for an FCS school which runs the ball on nearly 75% of the time was the main reason he wasn't selected in the first round.

Spot.on. You could flip WR for Lions and Packers if we signed Julio. It's about even, especially since we signed Watkins, who IS proven too but oft injured

Everything else looks great

I don't think there's any argument to be made that the Packers have a better receiving corps than the Lions, even if they end up signing Julio.
 

tynimiller

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I don't think there's any argument to be made that the Packers have a better receiving corps than the Lions, even if they end up signing Julio.

I am not sure about that...

Lions have one WR on their team that has had a 1,000 yard season ever before - DJ Chark, who has done it once and is coming off a 2021 season only playing 4 games and putting up 154 yards, in 2020 he put up 706 in Jax. Their second most productive WR from last year Kalif Raymond put up 576 yards and before that has been a journeyman for 4 other teams before even Detroit never having more than 200 yards in any season and less than 15 from 2016-2018 seasons. What they do have is a young guy heading into his sophomore season that did well his rookie year (which kinda had to given the roster around him) and that is Amon-Ra St. Brown who put up 912 yards.

Lions main 6 as of now appears to be:

Amon-Ra - 912 yards over one season
Jameson Williams - Rookie - arguably if healthy the best WR in the draft...ACL return health of course concern.
DJ Chark - 2,042 yards over four seasons and has only played more than 13 games once.
Josh Reynolds - 1,846 yards over 5 seasons (best year 618 yards Rams 2020).
Kalif Raymond - 945 yards over 5 seasons in the league.
Quintez Cephus - 553 yards over two seasons (only saw 5 games last year)

vs GB

Sammy Watkins - 5,059 yards over 8 seasons has played over 13 games 3 times *one 1,000 yard season and one 18 yards shy.
Randall Cobb - 7,168 yards over 11 seasons has played over 13 games 6 times *one 1,000 yard season and one 954
Allen Lazard - 1448 over three seasons (yes four but he played 1 game that first year)
Christian Watson - Highly regarded rookie, healthy with drop issues.
Amari Rodgers - Second year guy coming off a limited 166 yard season
Romeo Doubs - Rookie (two 1,000 yard seasons before coming out)


Overall the difference is between what was and what might become. Lions don't have hardly any "proven" or "partially" proven NFL WR other than Chark. Amon-Ra appears to be that however, but Watkins looked like a WR1 for two seasons putting up nearly 2,000 yards in his first two...so again what might become. We have Watkins, Cobb and Lazard - which honestly the most consistent and most likely to produce each week being the Lizard due to he is still ascending in production, has an excellent efficiency in catch percentage and is a first down machine (great sign of trust from AR). The Lions potential ceiling is high however, if Cephus comes back healthy was doing well as a young guy, Williams could be electric and if Amon-Ra builds another year it is possible they turn into a better WR room by seasons end...but I think there is merit to say GB has them beat barely and are similar in the youthful what might be.
 
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tynimiller

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Health is a factor for both of them.

Correct, hence the end of the comment you quoted that I typed. Cobb has had healthy issues and given his slot over the middle role sees some of his own issues however he normally sees the field for 70% of the season his games per season over his years 15,15,6,16,16,13,15,9,15,10,12
 

Schultz

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I am not sure about that...

Lions have one WR on their team that has had a 1,000 yard season ever before - DJ Chark, who has done it once and is coming off a 2021 season only playing 4 games and putting up 154 yards, in 2020 he put up 706 in Jax. Their second most productive WR from last year Kalif Raymond put up 576 yards and before that has been a journeyman for 4 other teams before even Detroit never having more than 200 yards in any season and less than 15 from 2016-2018 seasons. What they do have is a young guy heading into his sophomore season that did well his rookie year (which kinda had to given the roster around him) and that is Amon-Ra St. Brown who put up 912 yards.

Lions main 6 as of now appears to be:

Amon-Ra - 912 yards over one season
Jameson Williams - Rookie - arguably if healthy the best WR in the draft...ACL return health of course concern.
DJ Chark - 2,042 yards over four seasons and has only played more than 13 games once.
Josh Reynolds - 1,846 yards over 5 seasons (best year 618 yards Rams 2020).
Kalif Raymond - 945 yards over 5 seasons in the league.
Quintez Cephus - 553 yards over two seasons (only saw 5 games last year)

vs GB

Sammy Watkins - 5,059 yards over 8 seasons has played over 13 games 3 times *one 1,000 yard season and one 18 yards shy.
Randall Cobb - 7,168 yards over 11 seasons has played over 13 games 6 times *one 1,000 yard season and one 954
Allen Lazard - 1448 over three seasons (yes four but he played 1 game that first year)
Christian Watson - Highly regarded rookie, healthy with drop issues.
Amari Rodgers - Second year guy coming off a limited 166 yard season
Romeo Doubs - Rookie (two 1,000 yard seasons before coming out)


Overall the difference is between what was and what might become. Lions don't have hardly any "proven" or "partially" proven NFL WR other than Chark. Amon-Ra appears to be that however, but Watkins looked like a WR1 for two seasons putting up nearly 2,000 yards in his first two...so again what might become. We have Watkins, Cobb and Lazard - which honestly the most consistent and most likely to produce each week being the Lizard due to he is still ascending in production, has an excellent efficiency in catch percentage and is a first down machine (great sign of trust from AR). The Lions potential ceiling is high however, if Cephus comes back healthy was doing well as a young guy, Williams could be electric and if Amon-Ra builds another year it is possible they turn into a better WR room by seasons end...but I think there is merit to say GB has them beat barely and are similar in the youthful what might be.
IMO. I break it down a little differently.
1. Youngins. I would definitely prefer Amon-Ra & Jameson over Watson and Doubs.
2. What has been. Admittedly I am higher on Reynolds than most and lower on Watkins than most which is why I give Chark-Reynolds the slight edge over Cobb-Watson.
3. Lazard is good enough to flip the overall edge in favor of the Pack.
But then I says to myself. Self I says, What if Goff was throwing to the Packer WRs and AR was throwing to the Lions WRs? Ooopsy daisy me now thinks the Detroit WR room has the slight edge over GB.
 
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tynimiller

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Cannot throw Amon Ra in with two rookies, not fair as he at least for one year showed up in the league.

Otherwise fair. Again to me it so close I’m not going to claim either way as right or wrong truly. It is CLOSE
 
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I guess Watson playing for an FCS school which runs the ball on nearly 75% of the time was the main reason he wasn't selected in the first round.
Yes. It’s another way of looking at it. Had he played for Ohio State or Alabama he could’ve had that same stat production and easily went Day1. He could’ve also doubled his targets and finished 1,600+ yardage and in 2022 draft he likely goes top 20. Maybe maybe top 15 area.
 

captainWIMM

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What they do have is a young guy heading into his sophomore season that did well his rookie year (which kinda had to given the roster around him) and that is Amon-Ra St. Brown who put up 912 yards.

Amon-Ra seems to be a talented receiver who didn't solely put up those numbers because of a lack of talent around him. If that's actually how it works the Packers should be in pretty shape having added several rookie receivers.

DJ Chark - 2,042 yards over four seasons and has only played more than 13 games once.

That's kind of a strange way to look at Chark's numbers. He's proven to be a decent receiver in 2019 and '20 combining for 126 catches for 1,714 yards and 13 TDs in 28 games. That's significantly better than any receiver on the Packers has done lately.

Sammy Watkins - 5,059 yards over 8 seasons has played over 13 games 3 times *one 1,000 yard season and one 18 yards shy.
Randall Cobb - 7,168 yards over 11 seasons has played over 13 games 6 times *one 1,000 yard season and one 954

Once again, those numbers don't accurately show the potential of Watkins and Cobb at this point in their careers. Cobb and Watkins haven't come close to putting up 1,000 receiving yards in a season since 2014 and '15 respectively.

Overall the difference is between what was and what might become. Lions don't have hardly any "proven" or "partially" proven NFL WR other than Chark. Amon-Ra appears to be that however, but Watkins looked like a WR1 for two seasons putting up nearly 2,000 yards in his first two...so again what might become. We have Watkins, Cobb and Lazard - which honestly the most consistent and most likely to produce each week being the Lizard due to he is still ascending in production, has an excellent efficiency in catch percentage and is a first down machine (great sign of trust from AR). The Lions potential ceiling is high however, if Cephus comes back healthy was doing well as a young guy, Williams could be electric and if Amon-Ra builds another year it is possible they turn into a better WR room by seasons end...but I think there is merit to say GB has them beat barely and are similar in the youthful what might be.

Don't get me wrong, I would love to see the Packers receiving corps doing better than the Lions' one but I don't see it happening.
 

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As I do every year after the draft, I want to rank the various positions groups within the division to see where the Packers stack up.

Quarterback: The top two are pretty simple. The Packers have the two time reigning MVP, the Vikings have a good starting QB. But the last two are hard to stack-- you're weighing Goff's floor vs. Fields' ceiling. I went with Goff, but I would not argue either way. However, given how wretched Fields' supporting cast is, I don't think he will look better even if, in a vacuum, he is better.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

Running Back:
This is a really good position across the entire division. I like all four teams at this spot. But GB is #1 for me because both Jones and Dillon are very good, lead back quality players. Dalvin Cook might be better than either, but the Vikings' top 2 isn't on par. I gave the nod to the Bears because Montgomery is more established than Swift, but I don't think there's a big gap.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Tight End:
If you look at the primary TE's across the board, it becomes clear who the top two teams are at this position. Hockenson is emerging as one of the premier players at tight end in the entire league, and he's a complete player. Quietly, Cole Kmet isn't that far behind him. On the bottom end, I gave the nod to GB over Minnesota because the Packers have decent role players at all three spots (Y, H, and F), though Minnesota could have a nice option in Irv Smith Jr. if he comes back healthy in 2022.

1. Lions
2. Bears
3. Packers
4. Vikings

Wide Receiver:
The Vikings easily deserve the top spot here with Jefferson being one of the league's elite young receivers in front of the still useful Adam Thielen and the emerging K.J. Osborn. The emergence of St. Brown in the slot for Detroit helps them a lot here, and they have built around him with Chark and now Jameson Williams. The Packers are #3 for two reasons, one lesser and one greater. The lesser: they have youth and potential on the roster, even if they don't have a ton of proven talent. The greater: the Bears have the worst receiving corps in football.

1. Vikings
2. Lions
3. Packers
4. Bears

Offensive Line:
It goes a little overlooked because the Lions are so bad, but they have a great offensive line. Left to right, Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Vaitai, and Sewell are all proven quality. I love the Packers on the line too, but they are counting more on growth, whereas the Lions have guys who are a year or two ahead of their Packer counterparts. Minnesota has a huge range of outcomes on the line, depending on how well Darrisaw, Bradbury, and Ingram play. They could be above average or horrible. And the Bears have a small range of outcomes: horrible.

1. Lions
2. Packers
3. Vikings
4. Bears

Interior Defense Line:
Kenny Clark has needed help, and he got it. Jarran Reed is a useful veteran who will be better with fewer snaps, Dean Lowry is still capable as a rotational guy, and they're adding the draft's best interior rusher. The Vikings are respectable, able to field a good trio in Tomlinson, Phillips, and Watts. But the Lions and the Bears are both really weak here. Detroit has Brockers and then youngsters who aren't there yet, and the Bears have... no one.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

Edge Rusher:
Green Bay features a high quality starting duo of Preston Smith and Rashan Gary, and they will hope that backups like Garvin, Ramsey, and Enagbare can give them quality snaps as spell players. The Vikings are similar, though I would say with a step down in terms of certainty and ability seeing as how the healthy of Za'Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter is an open question. The Lions could be making a move up this list in a hurry if rookies Hutchinson and Paschal hit. The Bears have an aging Robert Quinn and... ?

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Lions
4. Bears

Linebacker:
If Campbell is even in the neighborhood of the player he was in 2021, then adding Quay Walker could give GB the best duo in the NFL. The Vikings also have a nice group in Kendricks, Hicks, and rookie Asamoah, but Kendricks is starting to fade. The Bears have a high quality player here in Roquan Smith, but very little else (they should trade him). The Lions are nursing along young players who are still in over their heads.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Cornerback:
Given that players take their biggest leaps between years 1 and 2, I think there's a good chance the Green Bay's top 3 at cornerback will be the best in the NFL. There's a steep drop-off after that. The Vikings have Dantzler, who is good, and they added Booth, Evans, and Chandon Sullivan. The Bears have a quality player in Jaylon Johnson and they added that cute ballerina to the lineup. The Lions are a mess at this position, largely because Okudah has not materialized, though they may have something in Oruwariye if he continues to progress.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Safety:
This was a tough call at the top because I still think Harrison Smith is the single best safety in the division, but overall I think Amos-Savage is a better tandem in 2022 than Smith and a rookie Lewis Cine. The Bears could be decent here as they added Brisker, their best draft pick of the weekend, to the position along with the decent but overrated Eddie Jackson. The Lions aren't quite as messy here as at corner or linebacker, but they still aren't very talented.

1. Packers
2. Vikings
3. Bears
4. Lions

Overall (Lower is better):
If you think about this division from a broader perspective, this rings true. The Vikings still have a lot of quality pieces, but they're the same quality pieces that couldn't overtake the Packers previously, so they're probably stuck in the same purgatory of being a winning team that cusps between missing the playoffs and losing early in the playoffs. There's an outside chance that Pettine makes them worse than that even. The Lions are on the come, but there are still too many spots (QB, LB, CB, S) where they're really bad for them to compete at this point. And the Bears are in competition with Atlanta for the worst roster in the league. Don't be shocked if they win two games and pick #1 overall next year.

1. Packers: 15
2. Vikings: 22
3. Lions: 29
4. Bears: 34
Good analysis. I think we have to pay attention to the fact that the Bears and Vikings have new head coaches. That can have an effect.
 

tynimiller

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Amon-Ra seems to be a talented receiver who didn't solely put up those numbers because of a lack of talent around him. If that's actually how it works the Packers should be in pretty shape having added several rookie receivers.



That's kind of a strange way to look at Chark's numbers. He's proven to be a decent receiver in 2019 and '20 combining for 126 catches for 1,714 yards and 13 TDs in 28 games. That's significantly better than any receiver on the Packers has done lately.



Once again, those numbers don't accurately show the potential of Watkins and Cobb at this point in their careers. Cobb and Watkins haven't come close to putting up 1,000 receiving yards in a season since 2014 and '15 respectively.



Don't get me wrong, I would love to see the Packers receiving corps doing better than the Lions' one but I don't see it happening.

Eh...I was very fair to Amon-Ra but honest. Last year he clearly excelled in a team that saw a promising second year guy then (Cephus) go down and some others they were planning on. The field opened up in front of him in a way not many rookies see happen - especially for a fourth rounder. This would be like Lazard and Watkins both going down for the year and Watson by nature is shoved out there for twice the number of snaps he probably would have been had that not happened.

Chark is an excellent WR, and I advocated for him to come here, not sure I get the "odd" way comment because I was merely sharing production over careers and just like Watkins and Cobbs numbers illustrate injury issues his do as well, HOWEVER unlike Watkins and Cobb - he is young (four years) and still has posted SOLID figures.
 

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we had wide open spots for WR's to step last year too, but none really did. We've had that for multiple years. Amon-Ra stepped right up and performed. I'd take him on this team right now if we could. I think his talent is real.
 

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we had wide open spots for WR's to step last year too, but none really did. We've had that for multiple years. Amon-Ra stepped right up and performed. I'd take him on this team right now if we could. I think his talent is real.

I'd push back on that some. No truly was relied on or called on much because of the ridiculously good WR1 threat and the two RBs we had. However, MVS and Lazard both continued to produce just as they have. When you have a connection that was as productive week in and week out as Rodgers to Adams was, I truly don't believe it mattered unless it was a massive nameplate guy, Adams was eating up the majority of WR targets plain and simple.
 

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Even so, for the past 3 seasons, we've had pretty big opportunities for someone to step up and run with it. Nobody really has. A good game now and again from Lazard or MVS but other than that? nothing. I think Amon-Ra would have had at least 50-60 catches here as a rookie, even with Adams. Why? Because he performed whenever he was given an opportunity and was consistent about it
 

tynimiller

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That's only like one more reception a game or less than Lazard had last season, and he missed two games even. None of this is to discredit Amon Ra, I said all along the dude was a second round worthy prospect all day long...but until he stacks a second or third good season together I'm not christening him anything. It will be curious with a healthy Cephus, Chark there and when Williams gets healthy just how much of a focus St. Brown is.
 

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At the end of the day, if the Lions called us up and said "We'll trade you our entire WR room for your entire WR room"...would you say no? I think I'd probably take that deal...
 

tynimiller

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At the end of the day, if the Lions called us up and said "We'll trade you our entire WR room for your entire WR room"...would you say no? I think I'd probably take that deal...

If we were starting a new regime at QB without Rodgers I see it as a coin toss with possibly them over us solely because of guys under rookie deals yet (if Lazard was signed reasonably for a year or two more no).

With Rodgers, absolutely not. He has Cobb a best friend and Lazard a guy he has strongly come to trust already here.
 

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If we were starting a new regime at QB without Rodgers I see it as a coin toss with possibly them over us solely because of guys under rookie deals yet (if Lazard was signed reasonably for a year or two more no).

With Rodgers, absolutely not. He has Cobb a best friend and Lazard a guy he has strongly come to trust already here.
Well I think that's blurring lines a bit. If the context (as has been throughout this thread) is "Rank these teams position groups" then evaluating our WR room vs theirs with respect to who Rodgers would prefer or has a better bond with or whatever...I think that's kinda outside the scope/spirit of the discussion. If I ask "Which WR room is better" and the response is "Rodgers trusts our guys more" that doesn't really answer that question and just serves to muddy the waters, IMO

So again I would ask: Solely with regards to which position group is better - which I again think was the original spirit/purpose of the thread - in a vacuum, how many would prefer our choice of WRs ahead of theirs?
Maybe framing it as a "trade" was misleading but the point is...to say nothing of fit/friends/etc, who would you take just on the basis of talent/potential/upside/overall quality/etc?
 

tynimiller

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Well I think that's blurring lines a bit. If the context (as has been throughout this thread) is "Rank these teams position groups" then evaluating our WR room vs theirs with respect to who Rodgers would prefer or has a better bond with or whatever...I think that's kinda outside the scope/spirit of the discussion. If I ask "Which WR room is better" and the response is "Rodgers trusts our guys more" that doesn't really answer that question and just serves to muddy the waters, IMO

So again I would ask: Solely with regards to which position group is better - which I again think was the original spirit/purpose of the thread - in a vacuum, how many would prefer our choice of WRs ahead of theirs?
Maybe framing it as a "trade" was misleading but the point is...to say nothing of fit/friends/etc, who would you take just on the basis of talent/potential/upside/overall quality/etc?

You didn't read my whole post. I literally said and I quote - without Rodgers factor I see it as a coin flip.

I would take our group right now for this year without blinking. If I was thinking future, the rookie contract deals would be the deciding factor and really it is tough without having any knowledge really of our four (Amari, Watson, Doubs and Toure) yet vs the knowledge of somewhat of Amon-Ra and Cephuz
 
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Here's how I think about our WR corps vs Detroit's.

Their top receiver is Amon-Ra St. Brown-- do the Packers have someone who you can fairly say is as good or better? I don't think so. In his last 6 games he came up with 51/560/5. That is a 17 game pace of 145/1587/14. I'm not saying you can just extrapolate 6 games, but even if you took 75% of those numbers, it would be impressive. Frankly, if the Packers had a rookie in 2021 who did that down the stretch, we'd all be extremely optimistic about him, and rightfully so. On top of that, players take the biggest jumps in year 2.

So at the top, they have that distinct edge. Then you have D.J. Chark vs. Sammy Watkins. That's close to a wash, but I still think the edge goes to the Lions because you're talking about a 25 year old entering season five vs. a 29 year old entering season nine.

Then you have the rookies to compare-- Jameson Williams vs. Christian Watson. You could argue that Watson is actually the better player in 2022 because Williams is probably starting the season on the PUP, but the counter to that is that if you had polled fans before the draft as to which of those two rookies they'd rather have with all else equal, they'd have almost universally wanted Williams.

After that, you're really splitting hairs. Maybe you argue that Cobb and Lazard are a better duo than any other pair they have down their depth chart, but even if you made that case I don't think it outweighs the difference among the guys that I expect to play the most.

So my opinion is that there's a clear edge in the Lions' favor. Which is fine-- the Packers are still a dramatically better team.
 

Magooch

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You didn't read my whole post. I literally said and I quote - without Rodgers factor I see it as a coin flip.

I would take our group right now for this year without blinking. If I was thinking future, the rookie contract deals would be the deciding factor and really it is tough without having any knowledge really of our four (Amari, Watson, Doubs and Toure) yet vs the knowledge of somewhat of Amon-Ra and Cephuz
No, I read the whole thing, it's just that you immediately followed that bit ("Without Rodgers") with "With Rodgers" which was not really germane to the original topic at hand, IMO.

I just don't think there's any point in discussing "who's position group is better" if we start bringing in that type of thing. As before I think the original intent/spirit of the discussion was to evaluate the particular position groups purely on their own merits.

And for me I don't think it's much of a "coin flip" at all.

Think of it like this: You're building a team from scratch. You have zero players on your roster, not a single confirmed contract. You are given the choice between the Lions' current WR group (and let's just assume with roughly their current contracts) or the Packers' current WR group (with their current contracts too, of course). Which group would you pick?

Which grouping would 32 NFL GMs pick? I would wager (pretty confidently) that the majority of GMs would pick the Lions' group and I don't think it would be particularly close.

Like Dantes said, we have a much better team overall, but I think it's hard to make much of a case for us having a better WR room, unless we're going back to assuming that all of our current WRs will be able to stay healthy and replicate their career-best seasons this year.
 

tynimiller

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Think of it like this: You're building a team from scratch. You have zero players on your roster, not a single confirmed contract. You are given the choice between the Lions' current WR group (and let's just assume with roughly their current contracts) or the Packers' current WR group (with their current contracts too, of course). Which group would you pick?
I answered that in my original comment. Lions most likely.

I also would not do that trade if Lions called us up today and explained why.
 
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