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BPA, BVA, and Tiers of Talent in the Draft

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by TJV, Feb 26, 2012.

  1. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

    Sep 27, 2010
    Nice work!

    Was Carriker really a bust? Seems to me we got a few years out of him.

    (Btw Mossy was not picked by the Packers)
  2. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

    Dec 7, 2011
    Carriker probably should be moved out of the bust category. As for Cade, I know that the Chargers drafted him but I list him because the Packers traded away their first round pick in '86 (and I think a lesser pick maybe in '87) to get Cade. In my database it's listed as a trade but I just listed him here as a pick for brevity.
  3. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

    Feb 22, 2011
    Rather than try to get Arrigo's thread on Thompson's draft methodology back on track I thought I'd resurrect this thread since the draft is fast approaching. I'd be interested in Joe's take on this since as I posted in that thread I didn't see him advance a methodology Thompson uses other than to say it's not BPA.

    To summarize what I was trying to advance as Thompson's methodology: In the opening post I advanced the idea that Thompson uses best value available instead of best player available and departs from a purely BPA methodology in two basic ways. The first part of that process is to construct his draft board based upon how they calculate players will fit the schemes the Packers run and of course how they think players will fit into the locker room. I believe they also take into account their current depth as they rank players on their draft board.

    IMO Thompson's second departure from BPA is evidenced by his many trade-downs during the drafts he's conducted. They indicate to me that he uses talent tiers in an attempt to maximize the greatest value from any particular draft. I think his trade down in the 2007 draft is very good evidence of this: he traded the Packers second round pick, #47 for picks #63, #89, and #191 to the Jets (he also traded his 7th rounder #235). IMO Thompson clearly passed up the "best" player available on his board because of the slim probability that player would be available one-half a round later. IOW, the difference between the player on top of his board at the time of the trade and the player(s) likely to be available at pick #63 was not significant: They occupied the same tier.

    I also made the point that of course the draft is more art than science since it involves flawed human beings evaluating the uncertain future of other flawed human beings. And I've made this point before so pardon me for repeating it: What I find absolutely astounding about Thompson's success in the draft is that when he became GM (as far as I know) he didn't make a single change in personnel in the front office or scouting staff. That tells me two things: First its evidence against the idea that he has a huge ego since such a person would want to throw his weight around and bring in "his people". Second it shows the importance of having someone in the GM job who has trained for the position. It wasn't Mike Sherman's fault he became the GM but he was utterly unprepared to do that job.

    With regard to the upcoming draft, I heard a discussion in which the draft expert was saying the top talent tier is comprised of 6 players.
    • Agree Agree x 1

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