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Bill Polian on Ted Thompson: "Fans should applaud him"

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Shawnsta3, Mar 24, 2013.

  1. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    http://m.jsonline.com/sports/packer...ents-for-a-good-reason-rq97qfd-199716801.html

    Interesting article where former GM Bill Polian shows praise for Ted Thompson and explains why his and Ted's philosophy has worked and how they work to retain key players.


    "Fans in Green Bay should not go crazy," Polian said. "They should applaud Ted."

    Polian might be right. He says Thompson is doing the right thing by emphasizing extensions to Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews and B.J. Raji above signing any player from any other team. A rewind look at last year's free-agent class supports Thompson's propensity to tiptoe through March.

    But as far as spending big in general goes, Thompson's restraint keeps the Packers out of trouble. Over a six-year study, Polian determined that 50% of free-agent signings panned out. Or, as he put it, the same rate as (much) cheaper, smart NFL draft picks.

    The article also goes on to highlight recent free agent signings by teams and how they panned out ( hint not good)

    Said Polian, "Teams that draft well - and Ted has drafted exceptionally well in his time - always have to re-sign their own. Why would you let good players go?"
     
  2. bozz_2006

    bozz_2006 Cheesehead

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    I agree; Ted supporter from the word go. Give the guy a chance; I did. Win; he DID! So how could you NOT be behind him?

    But, and to be clear this isn't me, I think many of the fans who are cranky fixate on some of Ted's early round picks that didn't become the NFL players that those fans wanted them to be. Even if its because of early-career injuries.
     
  3. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    Here's the best quote:
    “I always saw free agency as the price teams pay for not drafting well,” Gil Brandt said.
    People who rant for FA rolls of the dice are nuts. I'd rather have Clay and Rodgers over any other FA on the market. You gotta take care of your franchise.
     
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  4. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Packers are near the top of the league in win % during TTs time.
     
  5. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Pass the Kool Aid.
     
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  6. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    So if Polian's 50% success rate in Free Agency is correct, you've got to factor in costs as well. You pay a premium for those guys in the market. If your draft success is at 50% as well, you would pay much less on the rookie pay scale for those players than those on the FA market.

    I've described my model to folks in the past so I won't dwell on the details, but the Packers success rate in the draft according to my analysis has been:

    32% Pre-Ron Wolf 1980-91
    47% Ron Wolf 1992-01
    24% Mike Sherman 2002-04
    52% Ted Thompson 2005-2010

    So for Wolf and Thompson, their drafting success means that it is more fiscally responsible to stay out of the free agent market because players from the draft are cheaper than players from free agency.

    They didn't have free agency before Ron Wolf, but had that been in place we would have needed to spend in FA to put decent teams together. Since we couldn't do that, the Packers sucked in the 1980s (1989 the lone exception). However, Mike Sherman was the worst at drafting and therefore played the FA market the most. He also sucked at finding good free agents - I suspect his success rate in free agency was well short of the 50% average. In any case, Sherman's lack of success as a GM overshadowed his success as a HC which led to a lack of talent on the Packers roster by 2005 and 2006.
     
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  7. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    That's right! Who the hell does Bill Polian think he is??!! He hasn't 'done it' in the NFL like you and me!!
     
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  8. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    You'd think a guy who had it all figured out like Polian would have won more than 1 Super Bowl.
     
  9. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Come on now, it's unfair for you to compare all your Super Bowl titles to his - or anyone elses for that matter!
     
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  10. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Where did I compare? I just can't figure out how such a presumed authority didn't win but one Super Bowl in 14 years at the helm of the Colts.
     
  11. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    Ron Wolf only won one SB too. SB trophies are a bit of luck too. Injuries, schedules, weather all factor in. To be competitive each and every year is enough for me. I'm shocked that fans don't get this. Green Bay is the envy of fans all over. I talked with a Lions fan once and he asked "How the hell can the Packer be good year in and year out when we're just hoping for one year and a chance.
    If your team is in the playoffs you have a chance. Bittersweet as it is, I'm proud to tell anybody I'm a Packer fan as I'm sure it is for Colts, Saints, Ravens, Patriots or Steeler fans. You are not going to win it every year.
     
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  12. Spanish Rose

    Spanish Rose Cheesehead

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    Another gm casualty that had one of the greatest qbs of all time but could only muster 1 ring because he refused to put the talent on defense to build around Peyton. Another gm who relied on his qbs arm to win EVERY game..what's the difference between over spending for your own players and over spending for others?.. Isn't it all the same? Over spending is overspending.. Brad jones 4 mill a year proves the point that TT is stubborn and will not accept players who weren't his draft picks.. He feels himself a little too much
     
  13. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Agree to a point. Ron Wolf didn't have the length at Green Bay Polian had at Indy. My point is it seems that Polian's word is being offered as a "How to Do It" in the NFL. I question why so? His track record is no better and maybe worse than some others that did it different ways. There, I've now made a comparison.
     
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  14. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    Which ILB in this year's FA class was a better deal?
     
  15. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    You don't have to agree at all 13. I'm not trying to debunk you but it's common knowledge that Bill Polian is respected as an expert in this area. You can go to stats if you like, many do, but it doesn't diminish his success in fielding a playoff team consistently.
    If you measure success with SBs only I suppose you'd think Dan Marino and Dan Fouts were losers. SB wins is the singularly worst indicator of individual NFL careers. It's a team game.
     
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  16. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    No thanks Bill. Altho i do applaud you for deciding on Manning over Leaf haha.
     
  17. Spanish Rose

    Spanish Rose Cheesehead

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    None.. But with 7ilb on the roster, TT just overspent
     
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  18. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Exactly.
     
  19. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Well the record speaks for itself, I think. Have you read anything on Polian? He's pretty full of himself. Some say he's full of crap. He may be a lightning rod for some but not for me.

    And there you go dragging the lame Marino thing in. :roflmao:
     
  20. Darth Garfunkel

    Darth Garfunkel Cheesehead

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    I'd rather have 1 ring and a solid contender every year than a team that spends to contend for 2 years and then falls into a decade of obscurity once the bill comes due.

    Both TT and Polian have/had teams that made a run at a title virtually every year. Few other teams can say that. I am baffled by the criticism of that success. Maybe we really are spoiled.
     
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  21. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    ??? relevancy to my post? :confused:
     
  22. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    sorry replied to the wrong person lol
     
  23. Shawnsta3

    Shawnsta3 Cheesehead

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    The difference is overspending on your own players at least guarantees they fit your system. The Packers overspent on A.J Hawk and while he was overpaid it wasn't a disaster because he fit our system and we knew what we would get out of him. The Eagles overspent on Nnamdi Asomghua and he was a disaster signing because not only was he overpaid, but he didn't fit their system.

    Ted gave contract extensions to guys like Woodson, Pickett and Driver who were also not his picks.
     
  24. Forderick

    Forderick Cheesehead

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    and another GM job right away too.

    Look at how many super bowls the patriots have been in, 3 wins what 5 or 6 appearances. They draft well and use free agency and don't break the bank doing so. And are always a contender no matter what. They plug holes, with trades, free agents etc. But for some reason this is the totally wrong way of doing it?

    Bill polian was overall a pretty good GM but really 1 super bowl and we think because he says Ted should be applauded we should just do that? I am glad that Ted doesn't spend a ton of money on the higher rated free agents but there are deals to be made for a decent and fair price. Brad Jones at 4 million(to me) is a waste of that 4 million.
    Reggie bush signed for that, wouldn't he have been a pretty nice fit in this offence? I sure think so.

    you can't build a team through free agency but you sure can make it better with some key signings and plugging some holes with some proven talent. Rookies are not the only answer.
     
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  25. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Chillar all over again. We FINALLY fix Hawk's contract, only to find out they gave that money to Jones
     

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