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Barry Sanders...
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<blockquote data-quote="mradtke66" data-source="post: 358485" data-attributes="member: 4199"><p>TMQ always has some interesting stats at seaons end, and one of them is always seems to be a riff on, "This team lead NFL in rushing attempts/yards/yards per carry/TDs and did not even qualify for the playoffs."</p><p></p><p>I have a hypothesis to explain why and some conclusions that I've drawn from it.</p><p></p><p>Getting a great running back too early in rebuilding is actually worse for your franchise. Follow me here....</p><p></p><p>With the 12th pick in the 2011 NFL draft (ie, you finished in the bottom half of the NFL last year, but not in the basement) you select Stud Ballcarrier, Junion Running Back from Somestate Tech.</p><p></p><p>Now, S. Ballcarrier is an awesome back, 4.4 40 yard dash, just under 220 pounds, shifty, doesn't fumble, etc. And he'll help cover up that your QB is a 32 year old journyman and your o-line is a bit leaky.</p><p></p><p>And look at that! He does! Your team is much better now, a nice consistent 9-10 wins each season for the next 6 years. You haven't made the playoffs yet (or you were 1 and done) but your team is better! </p><p></p><p>But of course, you haven't gotten that really high draft pick to draft a top flight QB, so you sign a different 32 year old journeyman QB or two.</p><p></p><p>So it's been 6 years of solid running from S. Ballcarrier and he's about 28, or where most RBs start to wear down, especially ones with lots of carries on a run-first team. So your team slips a little, and you end up at 8-8. Thats okay, you can still get better! 7 years in....and still not drafting higher than 16....</p><p></p><p>It's now year 10 of S. Ballcarriers career. He's 32 and ancient as far as running backs are concerned. And he's done. He still starts, carries and runs, but he finishes the season with 700-ish years, 3.2ypc, and less than 5 TDs. Team finishes 4-12, he retires, and now with a top 5 pick can select a top-flight QB next year.</p><p></p><p>Thoughts:</p><p></p><p>-A good running game can cover passing weaknesses, until the playoffs, giving you an average-ish offense.</p><p></p><p>-Without a high draft pick, it's harder to get top-flight talent at certain positions, LT and QB.</p><p></p><p>-Thus, you need to get worse (lose) to get better (high draft picks). This is the very idea of the draft pick ordering.</p><p></p><p>Evidence:</p><p></p><p>Look at AP, Tomlinson, Chris Johnson, and any other super-elete running backs still active: They haven't done anything in the post season without a top-flight QB. And then look at the Lions with Barry Sanders.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="mradtke66, post: 358485, member: 4199"] TMQ always has some interesting stats at seaons end, and one of them is always seems to be a riff on, "This team lead NFL in rushing attempts/yards/yards per carry/TDs and did not even qualify for the playoffs." I have a hypothesis to explain why and some conclusions that I've drawn from it. Getting a great running back too early in rebuilding is actually worse for your franchise. Follow me here.... With the 12th pick in the 2011 NFL draft (ie, you finished in the bottom half of the NFL last year, but not in the basement) you select Stud Ballcarrier, Junion Running Back from Somestate Tech. Now, S. Ballcarrier is an awesome back, 4.4 40 yard dash, just under 220 pounds, shifty, doesn't fumble, etc. And he'll help cover up that your QB is a 32 year old journyman and your o-line is a bit leaky. And look at that! He does! Your team is much better now, a nice consistent 9-10 wins each season for the next 6 years. You haven't made the playoffs yet (or you were 1 and done) but your team is better! But of course, you haven't gotten that really high draft pick to draft a top flight QB, so you sign a different 32 year old journeyman QB or two. So it's been 6 years of solid running from S. Ballcarrier and he's about 28, or where most RBs start to wear down, especially ones with lots of carries on a run-first team. So your team slips a little, and you end up at 8-8. Thats okay, you can still get better! 7 years in....and still not drafting higher than 16.... It's now year 10 of S. Ballcarriers career. He's 32 and ancient as far as running backs are concerned. And he's done. He still starts, carries and runs, but he finishes the season with 700-ish years, 3.2ypc, and less than 5 TDs. Team finishes 4-12, he retires, and now with a top 5 pick can select a top-flight QB next year. Thoughts: -A good running game can cover passing weaknesses, until the playoffs, giving you an average-ish offense. -Without a high draft pick, it's harder to get top-flight talent at certain positions, LT and QB. -Thus, you need to get worse (lose) to get better (high draft picks). This is the very idea of the draft pick ordering. Evidence: Look at AP, Tomlinson, Chris Johnson, and any other super-elete running backs still active: They haven't done anything in the post season without a top-flight QB. And then look at the Lions with Barry Sanders. [/QUOTE]
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