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Barnwell at ESPN defends Pack draft BUT says we take a step back
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<blockquote data-quote="garyhogeboomsghost" data-source="post: 875042" data-attributes="member: 15085"><p><a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29113276/2020-nfl-draft-surprises-why-did-packers-eagles-draft-quarterbacks-jordan-love-jalen-hurts" target="_blank">https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29113276/2020-nfl-draft-surprises-why-did-packers-eagles-draft-quarterbacks-jordan-love-jalen-hurts</a></p><p></p><p>^^Barnwell defends the Love selection against all of the critics who have been lambasting us. Full article above. He does, however, say that we are one of the prime candidates to take a significant step back from our record last season. He predicts no better than 9-7 or 10-6 for the Pack this year. Here is a fair use snippet of what he had to say:</p><p></p><p><span style="font-size: 18px"><strong>Green Bay is not one receiver away from winning a Super Bowl.</strong></span></p><p><em><strong></strong></em></p><p><em><strong>I know it's tempting for Packers fans to look at what happened in 2019 and think they're a break or two away from a title. The Packers went 13-3 in coach Matt LaFleur's first season with the team and made it to <a href="https://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=401131045" target="_blank">the NFC Championship Game</a>. They have every right to expect to be in the mix again this season, given that they'll return just about every key player from last year's team. We all know that Rodgers is capable of just about anything if the Packers get into the playoffs.</strong></em></p><p><em><strong></strong></em></p><p><em><strong>All of those facts about 2019 are true, but upon closer inspection, it's tough to expect Green Bay to win with the same formula in 2020. I write about this every year over the summer when I look at the teams that are most likely to improve or decline, and I'll get to that as we get closer to the NFL season, but this team is arguably the league's most likely to decline next season.</strong></em></p><p><em><strong></strong></em></p><p><em><strong>Start with that 13-3 record. The Packers outscored their opponents by a total of 63 points. We can use their Pythagorean expectation to estimate that a team with that sort of point differential typically wins about 9.7 games, and we can use history to find that the vast majority of teams with that sort of difference between their actual win total and expected win total almost always decline. By that measure alone, we would expect the Packers to drop off to about 9-7 or 10-6 in 2020.</strong></em></p><p><em><strong></strong></em></p><p> <em><strong>They outperformed their point differential and DVOA because they went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer and had two additional wins by eight points. History tells us that teams which win that % of one score games in one season always regress toward the mean in one score games the next season. In other words, it is irrational to believe that the Packers will once again win just about every single close football game they play in 2020, as they did in 2019.</strong></em></p><p><em><strong></strong></em></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="garyhogeboomsghost, post: 875042, member: 15085"] [URL]https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/29113276/2020-nfl-draft-surprises-why-did-packers-eagles-draft-quarterbacks-jordan-love-jalen-hurts[/URL] ^^Barnwell defends the Love selection against all of the critics who have been lambasting us. Full article above. He does, however, say that we are one of the prime candidates to take a significant step back from our record last season. He predicts no better than 9-7 or 10-6 for the Pack this year. Here is a fair use snippet of what he had to say: [SIZE=5][B]Green Bay is not one receiver away from winning a Super Bowl.[/B][/SIZE] [I][B] I know it's tempting for Packers fans to look at what happened in 2019 and think they're a break or two away from a title. The Packers went 13-3 in coach Matt LaFleur's first season with the team and made it to [URL='https://www.espn.com/nfl/game?gameId=401131045']the NFC Championship Game[/URL]. They have every right to expect to be in the mix again this season, given that they'll return just about every key player from last year's team. We all know that Rodgers is capable of just about anything if the Packers get into the playoffs. All of those facts about 2019 are true, but upon closer inspection, it's tough to expect Green Bay to win with the same formula in 2020. I write about this every year over the summer when I look at the teams that are most likely to improve or decline, and I'll get to that as we get closer to the NFL season, but this team is arguably the league's most likely to decline next season. Start with that 13-3 record. The Packers outscored their opponents by a total of 63 points. We can use their Pythagorean expectation to estimate that a team with that sort of point differential typically wins about 9.7 games, and we can use history to find that the vast majority of teams with that sort of difference between their actual win total and expected win total almost always decline. By that measure alone, we would expect the Packers to drop off to about 9-7 or 10-6 in 2020. They outperformed their point differential and DVOA because they went 6-1 in games decided by seven points or fewer and had two additional wins by eight points. History tells us that teams which win that % of one score games in one season always regress toward the mean in one score games the next season. In other words, it is irrational to believe that the Packers will once again win just about every single close football game they play in 2020, as they did in 2019. [/B][/I] [/QUOTE]
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Barnwell at ESPN defends Pack draft BUT says we take a step back
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