AZ Game Notes

[HardRightEdge]

McMillan had a -0,6 grade. -0.4 against the run, -0.2 for coverage



I just checked Vince Young had -1.1 (was 0,9, they probably corrected one play or something), Colemann -0,8, Harell -0,5.



Perry had 1.4 run defense grade and a 0 pass rush and coverage grade.

You are correct 9 guys scored over +1 versus the run, only one guy (Daniels, +1.5) scored over +1 rushing the passer, and one guy scored over 1 for coverage (Bush, +1.2).

These grades are indeed just grades for one game. An as you pointed out many guys played just against second and third stringers so they might have scored better grades, than they would have scored versus first stringers. Moreover, the fact that the Arizona O-line isn't that great might have helped the grades of the defense. The fact that our O-line failed to create holes, might have hurt th RB grades. As pointed in another forum these grades are not perfect. They give however some impression of who played well, and who did not play well.

But to be honest I still view Bakhtiari as the bright spot of the game. And it seems like guys like Bob McGinn, Tom Silverstein and Vic Ketchman like him as well. Actually Zach Kruse made a play by play breakdown of Bakhtiari's play, and he was very positive.

You could pretty much tell after about 3 pass plays that Bakhtiari had the job. In the pass game, he's loose and fluid, good feet and hips, good balance and pad position, nice hand work. Then, when you take your eyes off him to watch something else, nothing bad is happening on that side. He's a rookie...somewhere along the line some Pro Bowl stud rusher will blow him up for 2 or 3 sacks or set Rodgers arunnin' for his life, or he'll miss some adjustments on blitz pick-ups and some guy will run free on his tab. That should be expected, then you watch to see if he's learned anything. He'll be tested right quick in week 1 against a couple of the best in the business. Newhouse always looks studied to me...he knows the moves but they don't look particularly natural...there are natural dancers and then there are Arthur Murray dances. And the guy just loses focus; I think he ends up on the bench.

I would give McMillan a lower grade than -0.2 in pass coverage. Besides the early burn (incomplete), he let that TE get open underneath too far down the field in what looked like zone to think it was acceptable. McMillan did chop the guy down, helping him drop it , but I'd give a minus for that one for being late. Maybe PFF gave him minus for coverage and plus for the hit, but you don't often see a guy get pulled out of the game in preseason week #1, but it seems to be more than cooincidence. Also, it has been reported that he's been running a lot of smack in practice and scolded for it by Sitton to no affect...perhaps a point was being made.

So the question remains, does PFF mark guys down for getting beat in coverage when the QB misfires? Who knows. It remains a black box.

You make a couple of excellent points there...do they adjust a TBs number up to compensate for poor O-Line numbers? I don't see how they could. You cannot assume a TB would hit a hole had there in fact been one, or what he might have done once he got there. Conversely, what if a TB made a long run but several D guys got -2 on the play? Do they take points away from the TB? Can't see how they could do that either...too much woulda, shoulda, coulda in that kind of adjustment as well. Or when they grade down a team's unit do they then grade down the opponent's opposite unit? Same problem.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Agreed. I heard that Bakh played mistake-free football outside of a single missed block on one of our run plays.

With LTs, it seems like the pass blocking score should be weighted more toward the final grade since the LT's primary responsibility is to keep his QB upright and the NFL has become such a passing league...

I did not see that. Any examples?

I saw Shields on Fitzgerald in Williams' #1 CB spot. Other than the 17 yard gainer I don't think they threw Shields' way. Fitzgerald was a non-factor in the game, unlike the UFA rookie, from Southern no less, for gosh sakes.

Which brings me to a digression, if I may. Shields led the league in fewest targets per snap last season. I observed over and over last season that teams don't like throwing at him, which left little impression, but the measurable stats bear that out. There was a 3 game stretch last season where I don't think he was thrown on more than 3 times total. How would PFF measure that for a game grade? There's nothing to measure. The ultimate in cover corner performance is to stop guys from getting open, being involved in no plays, and generate nothing to measure.

As for the other DBs, they were getting beat by guys named Jaron Brown and Charles Hawkins, guys who have never taken an NFL snap. DBs who want to lay claim to starting jobs should handle those guys better one-on-one than what we saw.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

You could pretty much tell after about 3 pass plays that Bakhtiari had the job. In the pass game, he's loose and fluid, good feet and hips, good balance and pad position, nice hand work. Then, when you take your eyes off him to watch something else, nothing bad is happening on that side. He's a rookie...somewhere along the line some Pro Bowl stud rusher will blow him up for 2 or 3 sacks or set Rodgers arunnin' for his life, or he'll miss some adjustments on blitz pick-ups and some guy will run free on his tab. That should be expected, then you watch to see if he's learned anything. He'll be tested right quick in week 1 against a couple of the best in the business. Newhouse always looks studied to me...he knows the moves but they don't look particularly natural...there are natural dancers and then there are Arthur Murray dances. And the guy just loses focus; I think he ends up on the bench.

I would give McMillan a lower grade than -0.2 in pass coverage. Besides the early burn (incomplete), he let that TE get open underneath too far down the field in what looked like zone to think it was acceptable. McMillan did chop the guy down, helping him drop it , but I'd give a minus for that one for being late. Maybe PFF gave him minus for coverage and plus for the hit, but you don't often see a guy get pulled out of the game in preseason week #1, but it seems to be more than cooincidence. Also, it has been reported that he's been running a lot of smack in practice and scolded for it by Sitton to no affect...perhaps a point was being made.

So the question remains, does PFF mark guys down for getting beat in coverage when the QB misfires? Who knows. It remains a black box.

You make a couple of excellent points there...do they adjust a TBs number up to compensate for poor O-Line numbers? I don't see how they could. You cannot assume a TB would hit a hole had there in fact been one, or what he might have done once he got there. Conversely, what if a TB made a long run but several D guys got -2 on the play? Do they take points away from the TB? Can't see how they could do that either...too much woulda, shoulda, coulda in that kind of adjustment as well. Or when they grade down a team's unit do they then grade down the opponent's opposite unit? Same problem.

Some of your points are accurate in that there is a black box,however a few are off base. Runners are graded on missed tackles and yards after contact amongst other things. Total yardage isn't the only indicator. If a running back has a poor line but makes guys miss and gains yard anyway he'll get a higher grade than a guy with an awesome line who just runs straight ahead and falls at first contact, even if the second guy gets more yards. As for the scenario of a RB score if the defenders are negative, what if the negative is because the RB made them miss the tackle? PFF didn't penalize AD last year because he hit to play Walden twice, they just grade plays, no weighting fit who they play. If you wanted weighted grades, Football Outsiders did that, but only for teams, not individual players.

Also, the PFF guys are all on Twitter and very responsive, if you have questions feel free to ask them.

 

[Poppa San]

Did anybody else notice that Capers seemed to be purposely calling to put the DB's in REALLY tough spots?

I seen it or heard it said (can't recall) that Capers specifically puts his defenders mano-a-mano in the preseason. He his evaluating the players not the scheme. If he used a scheme to cover his perceived weak links, he'd never know who to keep.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Sounds reasonable. It also makes the stats non-comparable from team-to-team and player-to-player.

"As for the scenario of a RB score if the defenders are negative, what if the negative is because the RB made them miss the tackle?"

Exactly my point.

And if there are no good lines and only contact, the PFF scores don't tell you much about the player, though it might tell you a little something about his fantasy value, which are far from the same thing.

These stats are popular among fans who want to compare players they know little or nothing about. That is followed by the leap into thinking the player with the better grade is the better player, which may or may not be true...and we all know "may or may not" leaves you nowhere.

I don't do twitter for the obvious reasons. I'll leave that to those who wish to defend boiling a performance down to a single number by people who don't know what the assignments are.

If anybody wants to query PFF about their definition of "pressure", let me know.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I seen it or heard it said (can't recall) that Capers specifically puts his defenders mano-a-mano in the preseason.

Or against the 49ers in the playoffs.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Some of your points are accurate in that there is a black box,however a few are off base.

I forgot to ask...exactly what did I say that is off base? I see nothing in what I said that contradicts your comments.

Besides...black boxes are bad things.

 

[jaybadger82]

I did not see that. Any examples?

Just relaying what I'd read here, about a single missed block on a run play. I'm no offensive line guru but Bakh definitely looked solid during the part of the game that I watched.

Which brings me to a digression, if I may. Shields led the league in fewest targets per snap last season. I observed over and over last season that teams don't like throwing at him, which left little impression, but the measurable stats bear that out. There was a 3 game stretch last season where I don't think he was thrown on more than 3 times total. How would PFF measure that for a game grade? There's nothing to measure. The ultimate in cover corner performance is to stop guys from getting open, being involved in no plays, and generate nothing to measure.

A bit like Nnamdi Asomugha back in his heyday. His numbers in Oakland looked so pedestrian because nobody was throwing at him. I'm sure teams look at how often a CB is getting picked on, though.

If anybody wants to query PFF about their definition of "pressure", let me know.

Wouldn't mind seeing this either. I imagine the criteria are met when a defender is in such proximity to the QB that the QB must relocate or throw the football. Might include contact with the QB immediately after getting rid of the ball. Whatever the precise criteria, this strikes me as fairly straight-forward way to evaluate who's getting after the passer.

IMO, there's a big difference between using a fixed set of criteria to record a statistic like pressures and attempting to reduce a player's entire game performance to a single number, which- I agree- seems gimmicky.

 

[Einstein McFly]

I seen it or heard it said (can't recall) that Capers specifically puts his defenders mano-a-mano in the preseason. He his evaluating the players not the scheme. If he used a scheme to cover his perceived weak links, he'd never know who to keep.

But...but...but...the sky is falling because our scheme didn't win us the game! It's important to win everything and not use the worthless preseason to better evaluate your players! That's why this team's win/loss record is so horrible the last three seasons and we never win the division title!

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I forgot to ask...exactly what did I say that is off base? I see nothing in what I said that contradicts your comments.

Besides...black boxes are bad things.

The tail end of the post, questioning the TB adjustments. You asked how they would adjust for a poor offensive line and seemed as though thr implication was that they didn't and that was a problem.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If anybody wants to query PFF about their definition of "pressure", let me know.

From the PFF site; "A pressure, as we define it, is any hit, hurry, or sack..."

Seems pretty clear to me. Get around the QB and make him do something he wasn't planning on doing. Even if it 's only sliding to his left, that still makes the QB uncomfortable and more likely to do something poorly.

 

[HardRightEdge]

From the PFF site; "A pressure, as we define it, is any hit, hurry, or sack..."

Seems pretty clear to me. Get around the QB and make him do something he wasn't planning on doing. Even if it 's only sliding to his left, that still makes the QB uncomfortable and more likely to do something poorly.

What's a "hurry"? How do you know the QB in uncomfortable sliding to his left? Just playing quarterback might be one pesky uncomfortability after another for some quarterbacks, beginning with sighting a J.J. Watt on the other side of the line to not recognizing a defensive package pre-snap. Rodgers on the other hand, with his stats out of the pocket, seems to savor the opportunity to throw the ball. Others savor the opportunity to run.

And if you "hurry" Brady or Brees causing him to step up in the pocket, if you're not collapsing the front of the packet they will eat your lunch all day.

I find the "hurry" to be entirely too subjective in your terms. A "hurry" should have an adverse result, otherwise it's worthless. Sacks are measurable, hits are evident. The "hurry" strikes me as perhaps a junk stat without precise clarification. As you can see, these kinds of questions cannot be asked or answered in 140 bytes.

By the way, do you have a link to their definitions and instructional guidelines?

 

[longtimefan]

I think a q/b hurry would be different for everyone you ask..More of an opinion...

To measure it as a stat, I think it has to be consistent by the author's definition...We see it all the time on games..Sacked, hurried, rushed etc...

 

[HardRightEdge]

Just relaying what I'd read here, about a single missed block on a run play. I'm no offensive line guru but Bakh definitely looked solid during the part of the game that I watched.



A bit like Nnamdi Asomugha back in his heyday. His numbers in Oakland looked so pedestrian because nobody was throwing at him. I'm sure teams look at how often a CB is getting picked on, though.



Wouldn't mind seeing this either. I imagine the criteria are met when a defender is in such proximity to the QB that the QB must relocate or throw the football. Might include contact with the QB immediately after getting rid of the ball. Whatever the precise criteria, this strikes me as fairly straight-forward way to evaluate who's getting after the passer.

IMO, there's a big difference between using a fixed set of criteria to record a statistic like pressures and attempting to reduce a player's entire game performance to a single number, which- I agree- seems gimmicky.

Here's the thing. I know what I think a pressure is and I can count, so I could come up with a number. As do you. But that doesn't mean our counts will be similar. Look at the refs. They're schooled in what to look for, they're given tape to study of what is and is not an infraction, and many have been in the pros for many years. Yet there are considerable inconsistencies to the extent that teams scout officiating crews for tendencies. If the refs can't agree on what's what in their subjective evaluations, why assume anonymous black box purveyors are better?

Justice Stewart famously said about ***********, "I know it when I see it". It took some decades, but the absurdity of that statement is now acknowledged in law.

One never "knows it when they see it", whatever "it" might be, just because they say so.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think a q/b hurry would be different for everyone you ask..More of an opinion...

To measure it as a stat, I think it has to be consistent by the author's definition...We see it all the time on games..Sacked, hurried, rushed etc...

There is no author...there are authors. It would take several analysts within any one organization to review that much tape. I could see having to rerun certain plays many times to come to a conclusion on a hurry according to my subjective evaluation. My partner doing another game, if he had my assignment, might conclude differently.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The tail end of the post, questioning the TB adjustments. You asked how they would adjust for a poor offensive line and seemed as though thr implication was that they didn't and that was a problem.

First, those were questions not statements. Second, I answered those questions by saying there was no way to adjust for quality of competition. I think you mistook my skepticism about the project for disagreement over PFF's methods.

 

[longtimefan]

There is no author...there are authors. It would take several analysts within any one organization to review that much tape. I could see having to rerun certain plays many times to come to a conclusion on a hurry according to my subjective evaluation. My partner doing another game, if he had my assignment, might conclude differently.

You never seen a game where they put down the hurries as a stat?

 

[HardRightEdge]

Might include contact with the QB immediately after getting rid of the ball.

One would assume those are "hits", otherwise I wouldn't know what a "hit" that isn't a "sack" would look like. I suppose you could "hit" a QB, he bounces off of it, then throws a TD or runs to daylight, but I sure wouldn't count it. If the result is not factored in I don't see the point...it's just business as usual. I would say over the years there have been enough inconsequential hits on Roethlisberger to make the point. The worst thing a defense could do against Favre is hit him in the first series...all that accomplished was jarring loose his gyroscope.

I'd be disinclined to score a hit unless it was particularly violent or the QB is visibly rattled. I'm reminded of the QB (I wish I could remember who it was) who wandered into the defenses huddle after getting drilled. I want to say Rivers but that could be wrong. Now that's a hit.

If the intended direction of the pass is not altered in some obvious way or the QB is not taken hard to the ground, I wouldn't call it a hit. But what does PFF count, and do they do it consistently from analyst to analyst? Who knows?

What do the purveyors of these stats say it is? A shove, a glancing blow, an arm tackle resulting in a flop? That's just business as usual. Guys who are affected by that are on the bench or out of the league in short order. Correct that...they get cut in college. The point is, we don't know what they count.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If it's not already clear, I'm not picking on PFF specifically. The same skepticism applies to STATS or any other purveyor of black box subjective stats.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You never seen a game where they put down the hurries as a stat?

By "put down" do you mean quote them or discredit them? I should hope they discredit them, for the reasons I stated, though I can't say I've heard a TV analyst do so. I have heard TV analysts quote them.

PFF uses them in their scoring.

 

[Luca]

If it's not already clear, I'm not picking on PFF specifically. The same skepticism applies to STATS or any other purveyor of black box subjective stats.

Well those stats of PFF are opinions not facts. So these grade are definitely not perfect. They have procedures to make these grades as objective as possible, but they always will be subjective. You should not use the PFF stats as a religion. But usually give u a nice view who plays well, and who doesn't. Together with my own observations, and opinions of guys of other media, as for example JS it helps you to form an opinion on who is worthy of a spot on the 53.

At the same time I have some doubts PFF. I for example feel that they are particularly harsh on Finley, who nearly always has lower grades than for example DJ Williams. Obviously defenses are more scared for Finley than Williams, and I think Finley usually plays better than Williams. Guys at PFF disagree.

Another example, that does not involve the Packers, is Rivers (this guy was top five in 2008, 2009, 2010). The guy had no O-line last year, no running game, his pro bowl TE was hurt all year and his best receiver was an undrafted rookie. Basically Rivers was under pressure all the time and had no one to throw to. They graded Rivers near the bottom, while I think the rest of this poor team is to blame. So PFF says their grades do not depend on the O-line, but they do (at least I think they do). You could actually reverse this argument for Smith and Kaepernick.

Well in short: "You should use statistics as a drunken man uses lamp-posts...for support rather than illumination."

 

[Luca]

So the question remains, does PFF mark guys down for getting beat in coverage when the QB misfires? Who knows. It remains a black box.

According to their guidelines they should still deduct points from that guy, for not covering well. Take for example those 2 plays (the bad snap en bad hand-off) from Pittsburgh vs Giants. These offensive guys probably get pretty bad. But I don't think defense gets much points for that, unless they beat their guy.

Or when they grade down a team's unit do they then grade down the opponent's opposite unit? Same problem.

They say they rate players in depend of each other. Sure its never really independent, a CB and WR are against each other for example. So a good move by WR may cost DB points. But that may not be the case. I guess this is a subjective part.

Actually, results and grades are not essentially linked. The offense was the 4th ranked offense this weekend without scoring points, which seems weird (stats are not made for simple sum, so basically I am abusing their stats now). They do however grade down QB's (-3.7). Point is, according to Green Bay did a good job pass blocking (+8.4). To me, it still seems like they have been too nice for our guys this weekend. Actually what is notable this weekend, is that only 5 teams score a positive grade on offense and only 8 teams scored a negative grade on defense. So according to PFF second string D's are better than second string O's. Also in a pre-season weekend, with all the second stringers and the mistakes you would expect an average grad far below zero. The average are below 0, but not as much as I expect. This may support the point that grading is not really independent.

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

I wasnt going to read all three pages of this thread, but I do have a question for those that saw the game since I only got about 1 min. of highlights from ESPN. After James Jones caught that 50+ yard long ball and was close to the AZ endzone, how the hell did we not score? Or at the least hit a FG. Was there a turn over?

And before anyone shoots me, I know it is the pre-season and the bugs are getting worked out, but damn....we laid a goose egg against AZ and couldn't even put up a single point. SF has to be licking their chops right about know.

 

[FrankRizzo]

I wasnt going to read all three pages of this thread, but I do have a question for those that saw the game since I only got about 1 min. of highlights from ESPN. After James Jones caught that 50+ yard long ball and was close to the AZ endzone, how the hell did we not score? Or at the least hit a FG. Was there a turn over?

Jones caught a deep go along the left sideline..... DB tried to trip him up after he caught it, diving for him... he did trip JJ, who tried to keep his balance by putting a hand down to keep from falling, going fast... lost his balance and went down at like the 3 or 4 yard line.

--1st down a run to about the 2 yard line.

--2nd down, Rodgers throws to Jones who was wide left, with another WR to the inside of him, trying to run a pick to get Jones to immediately run a sharp slant and an instand pass to him at the goalline. Rodgers thru it too far to the inside believing Jones would be able to run right thru the traffic. That should have been an easy TD.

--3rd down and Rodgers throws an immediate pass to J-Mike on the right slot who just ran straight and turned right and the ball was coming.... butthe DB was tight and got his arm in there the same time the ball came. The pass needed to be a split-second earlier. I still wonder if J-Mike could have caught this one.

--4th down was the run to Starks where there was no hole and he disappeared in a mass of bodies. But while still up (knee was not down), you could barely but clearly see him briefly reach that ball across and it was 100% to the whole goalline. It only had to reach the tip of the goalline and it reached the back of the goalline, if just briefly. But it did. That was a TD and if a real game, we'd have been furious.

 

[Oshkoshpackfan]

why throw twice in that short of yardage, pound the rock.