Are people really being overpaid this year?

[PackerGeek]

Okay now I actually mean this as a serious question so please try not to mock it too much. But, I have been watching all week as people complain about all these players being overpaid and it got me wondering if it was true. So if you consider that the salary cap went up from $85.5 mill by 17 million to $102.5 Mill the increase comes to about a roughly 19%. Would we not ( due to laws of supply and demand) expect roughly the same increase in salaries? If you consider that Charles Woodson got a 7 year 52 Mill contract last year as the best free agent corner available and Nate Clements contract is 8 years 80 Million it comes out to an increase of about 26%, A little high but maybe not completely out of line depending on how you see the drop off to the second best corner in FA. Thomas got less as the most coveted Line backer then Arrington got last year although he got a lot more in guaranteed money. I realize it's not always apples to apples because many things other than just salary effect how "Good" a contract is (Contract length relative to players age, Guarantees, etc). But it does make me wonder if a great deal of the increase in salaries isn't just the effect of the cap increase and not "overspending by crazy GM's"

 

[Pack93z]

Good first Post, welcome

I seen a suggestion some place the past day or so and it was a decent Idea... it would stop the madness to a point. Instead of paying a player a set $ salary, pay them a percentage of the cap per year. That would ensure them a "quote" fair raise in accordance to the cap.

 

[Greg C.]

Welcome to the board, Geek. You make a very good point. I think you are right about the top players this year not being paid too far out of line compared to last year's top players. I do think, however, that there is probably some truth to the charges that many players who are not all that good or are coming off injuries or bad seasons are being overpaid. Most people seem to agree that this year's free agent class is weaker than last year's overall. But it would be interesting to see a statistical analysis of the entire free agent class, once the season gets underway. (There is a lot more of free agency to go. Woodson was signed in May last year.)

 

[cheesey]

First off.......WELCOME GEEK!!!
I think there are teams that over pay every year. And it seems that if the FA pool is weaker then normal, teams pay even more crazy amounts of money to the players available. I think we are seeing that this year.
Like Ahman Green for example. I love what the guy did here, but in my view he was WAY overpaid. Time will tell if i am right or if the Texans were right.

 

[PWT36]

I heard or saw a comment for the reason there is overpaying of average or below average free Agents this year is because of that is what the market dictated. Not because of the fact, they are worth the big money. If the teams wanted the player, they had to outbid other teams in order to get the player.

 

[bavpb]

First of all:

Servus and happy posting!

As Cheesey said, time will tell.
On the other hand, a difference of not quite a fifth to more than a quarter imo is a rather huge step (thinking of my own salary :wink: ).

 

[trippster]

I am not sure where you got your numbers. When I did the calulations on Woodson vs. clements these are the percentages I got.

ave/year total
Woodson 7.42m 52
Clements 10m 80
Increase % 34% 53.8

 

[PackerGeek]

Your right I divided by the Clements salary instead of Woodson like I should have. The 34 percent is more accurate. I guess his numbers are a little higher than I guess I would expect from such a large increase in cap money. Although since most teams probably have have half of their players under contract for the next couple of years that salary cap increase is really only being spread around to a protion of their players I still don't know that the increases are completely out of line. I actually think the amount of guaranteed money is the most shocking thing. It seems to me that a larger portion of these contracts are being garuanteed or earned in the first couple of years. It seems to me I used to see these high dollar contracts and think that most of that money would never be seen anyway becasue they are so back loaded, but now it seems like much of it will be paid out.

 

[warhawk]

These numbers are going to create problems and those problems are going to get bigger as the numbers grow.

The Woodson example is a good one. Harris immediately started complaining about his deal being outdated and, rightfully so, wanted more money.

As these signings grow in dollar amounts so will the problem of dealing with players whose numbers are better than the player signed but are making half the money.

While this has been the case in the past with FA it is hitting new levels that is GOING TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. Current FA contracts are creating an unfairness in the pay scale. This unfairness will rear it's ugly head.

I think TT has done a fantastic job extending and resigning players but just watch what it takes to keep Barnett. This craziness in FA is going to make it extremely difficult to negotiate and hold onto core players which is a staple of all franchises.

Hitting the FA gold mine is far too attractive and will cause rippling affects amongst the players to a much greater degree than seen in the past.

Fan loyalty in the NFL is unbelievable but getting more difficult since FA began creating a "revolving door" syndrome that is going to become even more crazy with the availability of money under the cap.

"Identifying" with a team creates loyalty and I just wonder what kind of hit this will take over the next 10 years and how new fans coming on board will stack up loyalty wise.

 

[PackerGeek]

You bring up some very good points. I would expect some major increases in salary next year as well becasue I think the cap increases just as much next year so I'm sure a couple of our players are going to want a piece of that. The other thing that will be intersting is what happens when these major cap increases settle back to normal. After a couple years of double digit increases players are going to expect that continue. I remember what it felt like back when the econmy crashed in 2001 and my pay raises went from 10% down to 3% per year, even though I knew why it was happening it sure didn't feel good.

 

[Bobby Roberts]

Re: Are people really being overpaid this year? - yes

Your right I divided by the Clements salary instead of Woodson like I should have. The 34 percent is more accurate. I guess his numbers are a little higher than I guess I would expect from such a large increase in cap money. Although since most teams probably have have half of their players under contract for the next couple of years that salary cap increase is really only being spread around to a protion of their players I still don't know that the increases are completely out of line. I actually think the amount of guaranteed money is the most shocking thing. It seems to me that a larger portion of these contracts are being garuanteed or earned in the first couple of years. It seems to me I used to see these high dollar contracts and think that most of that money would never be seen anyway becasue they are so back loaded, but now it seems like much of it will be paid out.

Actually your numbers are off by more than that. The salary cap for 2005 was $85.5 million. For 2006 it was $102 million. This year it is $109 million. So the increase between this year and last is 6.9%, which is no where close to the 34.7% increase between Woodson and Clements.

Of course one could argue that Woodson is toward the end of his career and had a history of injury problems. While Clements is still young and possibly improving. But that's a different argument entirely.

I think the real reason behind the huge increase in FA salaries is money to spend. With the cap at $85.5 million there were a ton of teams scrapping to stay under. These teams improved their cap management, while at the same time the cap dramatically increased (85.5 to 109 is a 27.5% increase in only 2 years).

This led to more teams having a large amount of cap space, which makes the bidding war for top FAs go up fast. It's obvious that in these bidding wars we see some average players being signed to ridiculous contracts.

 

[PackerTraxx]

In a nutshell, players are being paid "what the market bears". Free agency will always be like that. If a team feels it is worthwhile to spend the money to upgrade a position they will probably have to over pay the player to do so because with 32 teams it's more than likely 1 or more other teams have a similar need. Hence, I feel it is most important to determine if the money paid will get the team upgrade you desire. Don't worry about the player so much because common sense dictates he will be overpaid for his individual talent considering the climate presently in the NFL. The best part, the NFL's system is infinitly better than baseball or basketball-Thank God!

 

[porky88]

Derrick Dockery signed the same contract that Steve Hutchinson got last year. Those two shouldn't be in the same sentence let alone having the same pay check. Leonard Davis signed for more money than Hutchinson. Davis is one of the biggest draft busts of this decade so far. Drew Bennett who has ONE 1,000 yard season signed for big money as well. So yes a lot of players are getting overpaid. Nate Clements being one of them. Sometimes it is wise to overpay for a position of great need. Much like Seattle did with Deon Grant. Yes he’s overpaid but it’s a huge need and he has the potential to live up to the deal. Dockery, Clements, Bennett, and Davis will never live up to their contracts in my opinion. Busts are inevitable when it comes to big name free agent signings.

 

[OregonPackFan]

The players are indeed overpaid this year, as the realsalaries of the players have increased.

This is because the demand for quality FAs is much higher than the supply.

 

[PackerGeek]

I guess when I think of someone being overpaid it indicates that eventually the market will eventually drop to a level that's more realistic. In this case I'm not sure it will ever "drop" significantly. The NFL isn't exactly a complete free market, there's a limited amount money (salary cap ) vying for a limited amount of talent. (roster limits) so I guess I see both sides to the argument
Since Steve Hutchinson was a free agent last year, he had less total money to bargain away from teams then Leonard Davis had this year. Therfore the advantage goes to Davis only because of timing not because of talent. So in that sense Davis is overpaid.
On the other hand Davis was able to negotiate exactly what the current going rate is for a free agent Offensive Lineman this year. Because, the amount of money available increased but the amount of players that will eventually share the pile money remained the same. If Hutchinson had been available he would probably been able to negotiate more than either of these two.

I guess this kind of thing is the devil you dance with when you try to have a level playing field.

 

[cheesey]

Thats the problem...........a guy signs a contract that he's happy with, then next year some guy gets MORE then him, so now he pouts cause some guy is making MORE then him. He was satisfied when he signed it, now he feels "dissed".
I WISH the NFL could go to a salary where a player got paid week to week, for what he DID on the field each week. You score a TD, you make more. You fumble, you gat paid less. Thats how the REAL world works.......pay for performance.
I know it will never happen, but it's nice to think about.