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<blockquote data-quote="FrankRizzo" data-source="post: 453903" data-attributes="member: 2232"><p>By the way, in case u were wondering who was ahead of us, here:</p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>1. <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/ne/new-england-patriots" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">New England Patriots</span></u></a></strong></span></p><p></p><p> </p><p>Truth be told, our statistical analysis last year said the Patriots had the best 25-and-under talent in 2011, but we went with our gut instead. Lesson learned. New England had 15 significant contributors last season who qualify this season as well, but we really need only to discuss the three who helped produce the No. 3 offensive DVOA in the league. If you can believe it, tight ends <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13229/rob-gronkowski" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Rob Gronkowski</span></u></a> and <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13230/aaron-hernandez" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Aaron Hernandez</span></u></a> are still only 23 years old. Whether we look at standard or advanced stats, Gronkowski had a record-setting season: He was the first tight end ever to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, and also had the best receiving DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) for any tight end since 1991. To put the latter in perspective, the second-through-fourth-best tight end seasons were clustered at 357 or 358 DYAR; Gronkowski beat that by about 100 (459).</p><p>Of course, lest we forget Hernandez in New England's double-shot of matchup nightmares; he led all tight ends by breaking 21 tackles and he actually carried the ball 11 times in the team's final five games. <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13964/nate-solder" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Nate Solder</span></u></a> (24) helped make huge tight end seasons possible by giving up only 2.5 blown-block sacks in his rookie year. With the retirement of <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2596/matt-light" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Matt Light</span></u></a>, Solder will switch from right tackle to left tackle, further increasing his value.</p><p> </p><p>Finally, the Patriots added LB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14933/dont'a-hightower" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Dont'a Hightower</span></u></a> (22) and DE <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14927/chandler-jones" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Chandler Jones</span></u></a> (22) in the draft, both of whom should contribute this season and in the future.</p><p> </p><p>Times are good in New England.</p><p> </p><p>[ATTACH=full]10750[/ATTACH]</p><p> </p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>2. <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/det/detroit-lions" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Detroit Lions</span></u></a></strong></span></p><p></p><p> </p><p>Last year, Detroit was ranked only fifth on this list mostly because of concerns about QB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12483/matthew-stafford" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Matthew Stafford</span></u></a>'s throwing shoulder. Well, Stafford put those concerns to rest, finishing 2011 in the top 10 in both DVOA and DYAR, so here the Lions sit at No. 2. Although <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/10447/calvin-johnson" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Calvin Johnson</span></u></a> is the obvious lynchpin, the growth of second-year slot receiver <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14034/titus-young" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Titus Young</span></u></a> (23) and the return of injured running backs <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13205/jahvid-best" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Jahvid Best</span></u></a> (23) and <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14052/mikel-leshoure" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Mikel Leshoure</span></u></a> (22) should allow Detroit's offense to maintain -- if not improve -- its No. 10 DVOA from last season. First-round tackle <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14930/riley-reiff" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Riley Reiff</span></u></a> is the Lions' left tackle of the future but is talented enough to beat out the underwhelming <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11251/gosder-cherilus" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Gosder Cherilus</span></u></a> for Detroit's starting right tackle job this season.</p><p> </p><p>Most of the Lions' 25-and-under talent on defense is involved heavily in the running game, which is one reason the unit improved from 27th to 18th in run defense DVOA. DT <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13234/ndamukong-suh" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Ndamukong Suh</span></u></a> (25) needs no introduction, but less-heralded youngsters like LB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12682/deandre-levy" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">DeAndre Levy</span></u></a> (25) and in-the-box safeties <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12528/louis-delmas" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Louis Delmas</span></u></a> (25) and <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13297/amari-spievey" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Amari Spievey</span></u></a> (24) each contributed their fair share. As a center fielder in pass defense, Delmas doesn't get his hands on too many balls (three passes defensed and zero interceptions the past two seasons), but he also doesn't get beat deep. His value was on full display in the last six games of last season, when the Lions' pass defense basically fell apart without him.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>[ATTACH=full]10751[/ATTACH]</p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>3. <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-bengals" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Cincinnati Bengals</span></u></a></strong></span></p><p></p><p> </p><p>QB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14012/andy-dalton" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Andy Dalton</span></u></a> (25) and WR <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13983/aj-green" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">A.J. Green</span></u></a> (24) didn't disappoint in their rookie seasons. The former was the only other player besides Newton to garner votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the latter made the Pro Bowl. Dalton played his best on third downs (38.9 percent DVOA) and in the red zone (28.0 percent DVOA), while Green had a 57 percent catch rate and dropped only two passes all year despite having 39 percent of his targets come 16 or more yards downfield. Cincinnati also has two other young pieces in the pass offense with TE <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13228/jermaine-gresham" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Jermaine Gresham</span></u></a> (24) and RT <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12622/andre-smith" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Andre Smith</span></u></a> (25).</p><p> </p><p>The Bengals' run defense improved from 25th to 16th in DVOA thanks in large part to the play of middle linebacker <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12455/rey-maualuga" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Rey Maualuga</span></u></a> (25) and DT <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13311/geno-atkins" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Geno Atkins</span></u></a> (24), the latter of whom also led the team in sacks. DE <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13274/carlos-dunlap" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Carlos Dunlap</span></u></a> (23) was a force as a situational pass-rusher, producing a team-leading 13 quarterback hits and 20.5 hurries to go along with his four sacks. Cincinnati's pass defense ranked 18th in DVOA despite the front seven finishing 10th in adjusted sack rate, which spoke to problems on the back end. To help remedy that, the Bengals selected CB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14940/dre-kirkpatrick" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Dre Kirkpatrick</span></u></a> in the first round of April's draft.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>[ATTACH=full]10752[/ATTACH]</p><p><span style="font-size: 15px"><strong>4. <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-buccaneers" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</span></u></a></strong></span></p><p></p><p> </p><p>The 2011 Buccaneers were a cautionary tale for those of us who take pride in these rankings. Tampa Bay was our No. 1 team last year, but virtually every youngster we cited ended up playing worse than advertised. Franchise QB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12473/josh-freeman" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Josh Freeman</span></u></a> (24) threw 16 more interceptions than he did in 2010 and fell from inside the top 10 in DYAR and DVOA to outside the top 30. Freeman's No. 1 target, WR <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13489/mike-williams" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Mike Williams</span></u></a> (25), had nearly 200 fewer receiving yards and eight fewer touchdowns than in 2010 despite an identical number of catches (65). RB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13213/legarrette-blount" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">LeGarrette Blount</span></u></a> (26), though not a qualifier this year, lost his job thanks to a case of fumblitis. Hey, it's not all bad. Rookie <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14885/doug-martin" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Doug Martin</span></u></a>, who had the fourth-highest speed score among this year's backs, replaces Blount in the starting lineup.</p><p> </p><p>On defense, it was the same story. CB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12633/ej-biggers" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">E.J. Biggers</span></u></a> (24) allowed 4.4 yards per pass more than he did in 2010 and dropped from 13th to 76th in success rate. DE <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14046/da'quan-bowers" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Da'Quan Bowers</span></u></a> (22) finished third on the team in quarterback hurries despite limited playing time for most of the season, but he tore his Achilles tendon two months ago. LB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11409/geno-hayes" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Geno Hayes</span></u></a> (25) was solid against the run once again, but he took his talents to the Windy City this offseason.</p><p> </p><p>Defensive tackle <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13240/gerald-mccoy" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Gerald McCoy</span></u></a> (24) tore his biceps (again) and ended up starting only six games. If there was any silver lining to the Buccaneers' black cloud last year, it was the promising play of young starters DE <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13965/adrian-clayborn" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Adrian Clayborn</span></u></a> (24), DT <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13293/brian-price" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Brian Price</span></u></a> (23) and LB <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14023/mason-foster" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Mason Foster</span></u></a> (24). Add in first-round strong safety <a href="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14932/mark-barron" target="_blank"><u><span style="color: #0066cc">Mark Barron</span></u></a> and the situation seems even less depressing.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="FrankRizzo, post: 453903, member: 2232"] By the way, in case u were wondering who was ahead of us, here: [SIZE=4][B]1. [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/ne/new-england-patriots'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]New England Patriots[/COLOR][/U][/URL][/B][/SIZE] Truth be told, our statistical analysis last year said the Patriots had the best 25-and-under talent in 2011, but we went with our gut instead. Lesson learned. New England had 15 significant contributors last season who qualify this season as well, but we really need only to discuss the three who helped produce the No. 3 offensive DVOA in the league. If you can believe it, tight ends [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13229/rob-gronkowski'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Rob Gronkowski[/COLOR][/U][/URL] and [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13230/aaron-hernandez'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Aaron Hernandez[/COLOR][/U][/URL] are still only 23 years old. Whether we look at standard or advanced stats, Gronkowski had a record-setting season: He was the first tight end ever to lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns, and also had the best receiving DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) for any tight end since 1991. To put the latter in perspective, the second-through-fourth-best tight end seasons were clustered at 357 or 358 DYAR; Gronkowski beat that by about 100 (459). Of course, lest we forget Hernandez in New England's double-shot of matchup nightmares; he led all tight ends by breaking 21 tackles and he actually carried the ball 11 times in the team's final five games. [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13964/nate-solder'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Nate Solder[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) helped make huge tight end seasons possible by giving up only 2.5 blown-block sacks in his rookie year. With the retirement of [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/2596/matt-light'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Matt Light[/COLOR][/U][/URL], Solder will switch from right tackle to left tackle, further increasing his value. Finally, the Patriots added LB [URL="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14933/dont'a-hightower"][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Dont'a Hightower[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (22) and DE [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14927/chandler-jones'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Chandler Jones[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (22) in the draft, both of whom should contribute this season and in the future. Times are good in New England. [ATTACH=full]10750[/ATTACH] [SIZE=4][B]2. [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/det/detroit-lions'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Detroit Lions[/COLOR][/U][/URL][/B][/SIZE] Last year, Detroit was ranked only fifth on this list mostly because of concerns about QB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12483/matthew-stafford'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Matthew Stafford[/COLOR][/U][/URL]'s throwing shoulder. Well, Stafford put those concerns to rest, finishing 2011 in the top 10 in both DVOA and DYAR, so here the Lions sit at No. 2. Although [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/10447/calvin-johnson'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Calvin Johnson[/COLOR][/U][/URL] is the obvious lynchpin, the growth of second-year slot receiver [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14034/titus-young'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Titus Young[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (23) and the return of injured running backs [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13205/jahvid-best'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Jahvid Best[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (23) and [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14052/mikel-leshoure'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Mikel Leshoure[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (22) should allow Detroit's offense to maintain -- if not improve -- its No. 10 DVOA from last season. First-round tackle [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14930/riley-reiff'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Riley Reiff[/COLOR][/U][/URL] is the Lions' left tackle of the future but is talented enough to beat out the underwhelming [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11251/gosder-cherilus'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Gosder Cherilus[/COLOR][/U][/URL] for Detroit's starting right tackle job this season. Most of the Lions' 25-and-under talent on defense is involved heavily in the running game, which is one reason the unit improved from 27th to 18th in run defense DVOA. DT [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13234/ndamukong-suh'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Ndamukong Suh[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25) needs no introduction, but less-heralded youngsters like LB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12682/deandre-levy'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]DeAndre Levy[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25) and in-the-box safeties [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12528/louis-delmas'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Louis Delmas[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25) and [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13297/amari-spievey'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Amari Spievey[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) each contributed their fair share. As a center fielder in pass defense, Delmas doesn't get his hands on too many balls (three passes defensed and zero interceptions the past two seasons), but he also doesn't get beat deep. His value was on full display in the last six games of last season, when the Lions' pass defense basically fell apart without him. [ATTACH=full]10751[/ATTACH] [SIZE=4][B]3. [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-bengals'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Cincinnati Bengals[/COLOR][/U][/URL][/B][/SIZE] QB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14012/andy-dalton'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Andy Dalton[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25) and WR [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13983/aj-green'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]A.J. Green[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) didn't disappoint in their rookie seasons. The former was the only other player besides Newton to garner votes for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and the latter made the Pro Bowl. Dalton played his best on third downs (38.9 percent DVOA) and in the red zone (28.0 percent DVOA), while Green had a 57 percent catch rate and dropped only two passes all year despite having 39 percent of his targets come 16 or more yards downfield. Cincinnati also has two other young pieces in the pass offense with TE [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13228/jermaine-gresham'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Jermaine Gresham[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) and RT [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12622/andre-smith'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Andre Smith[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25). The Bengals' run defense improved from 25th to 16th in DVOA thanks in large part to the play of middle linebacker [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12455/rey-maualuga'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Rey Maualuga[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25) and DT [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13311/geno-atkins'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Geno Atkins[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24), the latter of whom also led the team in sacks. DE [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13274/carlos-dunlap'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Carlos Dunlap[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (23) was a force as a situational pass-rusher, producing a team-leading 13 quarterback hits and 20.5 hurries to go along with his four sacks. Cincinnati's pass defense ranked 18th in DVOA despite the front seven finishing 10th in adjusted sack rate, which spoke to problems on the back end. To help remedy that, the Bengals selected CB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14940/dre-kirkpatrick'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Dre Kirkpatrick[/COLOR][/U][/URL] in the first round of April's draft. [ATTACH=full]10752[/ATTACH] [SIZE=4][B]4. [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-buccaneers'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/COLOR][/U][/URL][/B][/SIZE] The 2011 Buccaneers were a cautionary tale for those of us who take pride in these rankings. Tampa Bay was our No. 1 team last year, but virtually every youngster we cited ended up playing worse than advertised. Franchise QB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12473/josh-freeman'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Josh Freeman[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) threw 16 more interceptions than he did in 2010 and fell from inside the top 10 in DYAR and DVOA to outside the top 30. Freeman's No. 1 target, WR [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13489/mike-williams'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Mike Williams[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25), had nearly 200 fewer receiving yards and eight fewer touchdowns than in 2010 despite an identical number of catches (65). RB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13213/legarrette-blount'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]LeGarrette Blount[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (26), though not a qualifier this year, lost his job thanks to a case of fumblitis. Hey, it's not all bad. Rookie [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14885/doug-martin'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Doug Martin[/COLOR][/U][/URL], who had the fourth-highest speed score among this year's backs, replaces Blount in the starting lineup. On defense, it was the same story. CB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/12633/ej-biggers'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]E.J. Biggers[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) allowed 4.4 yards per pass more than he did in 2010 and dropped from 13th to 76th in success rate. DE [URL="http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14046/da'quan-bowers"][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Da'Quan Bowers[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (22) finished third on the team in quarterback hurries despite limited playing time for most of the season, but he tore his Achilles tendon two months ago. LB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/11409/geno-hayes'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Geno Hayes[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (25) was solid against the run once again, but he took his talents to the Windy City this offseason. Defensive tackle [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13240/gerald-mccoy'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Gerald McCoy[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24) tore his biceps (again) and ended up starting only six games. If there was any silver lining to the Buccaneers' black cloud last year, it was the promising play of young starters DE [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13965/adrian-clayborn'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Adrian Clayborn[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24), DT [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/13293/brian-price'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Brian Price[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (23) and LB [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14023/mason-foster'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Mason Foster[/COLOR][/U][/URL] (24). Add in first-round strong safety [URL='http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/_/id/14932/mark-barron'][U][COLOR=#0066cc]Mark Barron[/COLOR][/U][/URL] and the situation seems even less depressing. [/QUOTE]
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