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Amish Mafia Draft Predictions.

Discussion in '2011 Draft Archive' started by AmishMafia, Apr 18, 2011.

  1. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    PACKER PREDICTIONS
    1. There will be at least 2 "What the Hell?" moments in the Packer Draft. Followed by "Why didn't he take XXXXX?" or "Who is that?" or "He's not even on my list!"

    2. Packers will make at least 1 trade.

    3. The Packers will take a DL in the first 2 picks.

    4. The Pack will add a OL, CB, and a WR.

    5. Some will still rip on TT for a bad pick - but these people are few and far between these days.

    6. There are players who are developing on the team that are ready to make a step forward. TT is very patient with players he believes will develop. Therefore, positions that we think need to be upgraded, TT may already see as a position of strength. ie: OLB. We have Jones, Walden, and Zombo who have all shown flashes. Remember the dissappointed fans last season that no CB was taken early? Well, we didn't need to.

    NFL PREDICTIONS
    7. There will be at least 40 players picked AFTER round 1 which who will be described as 'he was considered a first rounder but was injured' or 'was a first round prospect going into the season'; or 'was considered by many to be a first rounder'. All in all that makes about 72 players who either did or should have gone in the first round.

    8. This always amazes me. Analysts/writers/draftnicks will study the draft. They will watch gametape, youtube videos, the combine, any and all interviews. They will read every mock draft, analyst, on-line draft chats, player interview, article, that disects a player or a teams needs. They will spend countless hours scouring the internet looking for any tangible tidbit on anything related to the draft and or a particular prospect. They will create their own mock draft and analysis. Then, after the draft, they will make the stupidest statement in all of sports: "Its foolish to give out draft grades until 3 or 5 years after, because there is no way of knowing how these guys will do." To which I think: A. Why did you publish or comment on anything about players if you have no idea? B. If there is no way of knowing (or at least making an educated guess), why do teams bother scouting?

    The height of stupidity was when a full time ESPN analyst in a recent year, who commented on every single pick - ripping the team or praising the team, made the statement at the end of the first round when asked how he would grade the teams. "No way to tell, we need to wait 5 years". No kidding - my sister can figure it out by then. I'm waiting for other commentators to expand upon this logic. Soon, at the beginning of the season you will hear: "No way of telling who the best team in the NFL is, I will wait till after the Superbowl, to make a comment."


    (feel free to add your own)
     
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  2. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Oh, we needed to. We desperately needed to.
    Lucky us, we found an UDFA in Sam Shields that was able to play as a seasoned pro.
    Look no further than the SB, when both him and Woodson went down. Roethlisberger out of the blue started ripping our D.
    It's not exclusive.

    It IS incredibly dumb to post grades before 3 to 5 years. Because teams don't draft players based solely on talent. They a lot of times project players, guys that were injuried, or had off-field trouble, or simply didn't achieve his potential in college.

    So an analyst takes a look at the Chargers' 2005 draft, and grades it A, with Merriman being the top pick. And even after 3 years, it's still graded that way.

    But now, looking back, it wasn't a good pick. He's out of the Chargers, and he has had only 4 sacks in the last 3 years...

    There really isn't a sure way to say if a team had a good or a bad draft right after it has happened.
    What one can say is if the draft adressed immediate needs or not, if it was a risky draft or not...

    Well, one can grade based on reach or value. That way, even if the guy pans out or not, it's a correct grade.
    Picking Cam Newton with the 1st pick is a reach, so it's a bad move. Regardless if he pans out or not, because there are too many questions with him.
    Now, picking him in the bottom of the 1st is a great value, regardless if he pans or not, because his upside is tremenduous.
     
  3. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Somewhat agree. There is risk reward with every pick.

    Of course our opinions change as we get additional information. But the truly savvy talent evaluator would be able to make a decision and either standby it or cower.

    Take the ESPN guy. Every pick he would either praise or slander the GM. Why would he do that if he later admits he didn't have a clue if its a good pick or not? I am looking for opinions and thoughts not absolute truth because everyone knows that is to be decided. Thats why we are here on the Message board, and thats why I watch commentators on TV. To get their expert opinion giving an evaluation of something that hasn't happened.

    In the summer we will discuss who is the strongest team, we will not wait till after the superbowl to decide. Before the Packer opener, we will discuss how many TDs the Packers will embarrass the Bears by. We won't wait till after the game to know the Packers are a superior team.
     
  4. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    I understand what you're saying, but those ESPN guys have no clue how good/bad a player is. All they know is from SOME film study (they don't have acess to coaches tape) and rumors they hear from insider contacts.

    The ones that really know about the players are the team evaluators. And even then, there are only a handful of competent ones.

    What you get from "analysis" are provided by the absolute bottom feeders.

    The good evaluators are on good teams
    The bad are on bad teams
    And the really crappy ones are out of the league and providing analysis on TV...

    (there are, of course, exceptions to this. I think)
     
  5. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I agree. But every pick that comes up and they ask "who should team xxxx take?" He should respond "I don't know. There's no way for me to
    Tell how these players will do. Please ask me in 5 years."
     
  6. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Oh yeah, it's incredibly hypocritical to say that x player should be taken, and then say that they don't know if the draft was a good or a bad one.
     
  7. DergaSmash

    DergaSmash Cheesehead

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    I agree for the most part. Yet I think the reason there is all the analyzing, mock drafts, and talk about picks or good fits or whatever, is because of a few reasons.
    1. It is free advertising for the NFL. It gets the fans excited when there is no football. Fans are reminded about the excitement of football so they buy jerseys or coffee mugs or whatever.
    2. Its fun. I love the draft. One of the reasons I watch college football is so I can see who might have a shot in the NFL. Watching game footage, the combine or other workouts, and reading about the players is fun.
    3. What else are the NFL, the players, and the media going to talk about? Draft talk, and the hype of who the next big superstar is going to be sells magazines/newspapers, and gets ratings on tv. For the most part, the average American football fan isn't interested in the philanthropy of the small amount of players who actually give a damn and do it properly.
     
  8. DergaSmash

    DergaSmash Cheesehead

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    As for grading drafts or picks, or saying who fits where, or what would be a good choice for a certain team at a certain time, it is a bit iffy. There are a lot of variables to account for. Yet I don't think its bad or wrong really.

    The only big difference between the average football fan and the average football media guy is a degree in journalism and/or broadcasting. Most football fans played football in high school, and even in college. Sure, some analysts played pro, coached in college/pros, or even scouted at one or both levels. The two important things to consider are the analysts resume, and their track record. Let's take Todd McShay for an example.

    He played college football until a back injury forced him to give up playing. He cut game film for the University of Richmond while as an intern for Gary Horton, who is a big name in scouting. He then worked for Horton's "The War Room," and while he was there it became a go to source of information for 16 NFL team's scouting departments. He then became the director of the the program after it was bought by ESPN, and renamed ESPN Scouts Inc. That is a pretty hefty resume. Sure his track record isn't perfect, but no one is going to correctly predict and pick every draft or every player. And like all people, he can be wrong or make mistakes. I'm pretty sure the average sports writer/analyst doesn't have same kind of resume.

    So I look at the analysis as an educated guess. The individual analyst's resume and track record do strengthen or weaken the specific analysis in my eyes, at least a little bit. So all of these analysts take a bunch of information in the form of NFL scouts' scouting reports/workout numbers/game footage/player interviews/coaching interviews/NFL teams draft position/team needs/GM or Coach's draft history/etc, and they make a prediction based on that information. You can't take it as gospel, even if the conventional wisdom says its a lock. There are always other variables that cannot be accounted for that may come into play. So I think taking a mock draft as a rock-solid, for sure prediction is silly. The analyst is just making a theoretical prediction based on his take of the information he has. At least that is how I see it.
     
  9. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Well put Derga.

    The biggest variable is the one us fans cannot determine and that is commitment. The player can be extremely committed in college, but what is going to happen when some NFL team hands him a check for $12M? Or even $300k for that matter.

    Many of these kids grew up lower income and suddenly a world of opportunity will open to them. They can now travel, buy great cars, have lavish parties, get a great home with a pool, etc. And what impoverished person would not want to show off at least a little when they suddenly 'make it'? And all of these things will take them away from working out. How will they react? Trick is finding the kids who have the work ethic and the love for the game. Money is a very small benefit when compared to the opportunity to play and compete. These are the kids that are going to continue physically pushing themselves and committing themselves to study.

    Jamarcus Russell could have been the greatest QB of all time. He had off the chart physical attributes. Problem is: he didn't really care to be the best. He cashed in and that was that.
     
  10. Riley82

    Riley82 Cheesehead

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    I used to dislike/dis trust ted but i do not anymore i have complete faith in him i think he will draft a LT,olb,cb,wr,dl, and maybe a kR, i can see him also picking up players undrafted a dl at least.
    I can see him getting a few dline men as picket is injury/age jenkins is gone (most probably) jolly in the nick, harrell i have never ever seen this guy play (i am being sarcastic).

    just a question of topic what personality is TT like?
    is he a strict man or soft man he looks like a strict man to me any second he will hit the roof.

    Packers fans are awesome!!

    English packers fan
     
  11. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Only humans have personality...
     
  12. DergaSmash

    DergaSmash Cheesehead

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    LoL. Only humans indeed!
     
  13. Riley82

    Riley82 Cheesehead

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    Cheers guys i just asked if he was a strick gm or a soft gm.
    I want the packers to play at wembley for once instead of the bucs constantly
     
  14. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    It was just a joke on how TT is bland and dull in every interview. Some people think he's a robot...
     
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  15. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I do have some sympathy for commentators on NFL draft shows. That's an awful lot of time to fill. The foolishness for me comes when one of them says something like Amish Mafia relates. Of course we won't know how any of the draftees will adapt to, and perform in the NFL. The example of Jamarcus Russell makes the point: No one can measure another's heart. And of course a lot of what is said during the show is worthless blather to fill the time. But it's foolish to so remind those who have chosen to watch it.

    Here's my prediction for the first round of the draft:

    At least one poster on every Packers board will make the comment that the World Champion Packers are not getting much mention or respect. The excitement of Packers fans will build during the last third of the first round. Posters will speculate about whether or not Thompson will trade up to select a certain player. One player many Packers fans covet will fall farther than expected but will be taken a few picks before #32. As the long night reaches its conclusion the anticipation will be palpable. Once the Packers are FINALLY on the clock arguments favoring one of the three or four of the "best" available will heat up. Then with a couple of minutes left on the clock, the announcement we all have been waiting for happens: "We have a trade of the 32nd pick. The Packers send that pick to …" That'll make day two of the draft that much more interesting.

    - - -

    Riley82, Jason Wilde talked about Thompson yesterday during his segment on Steve (the Homer) True's radio show. Wilde has interviewed Thompson before and of course has been able to question him during press conferences. He's also talked to others in the front office about him, so while they aren't friends, he is better positioned to evaluate him than almost any Packers fan. He pretty much confirms what we see: Thompson is awkward in social situations and prefers not to be in the spotlight. However, he is assertive and "in charge" during meetings but listens to everyone's opinion. The most interesting thing Wilde said IMO (I've heard him say it before) is Thompson doesn't have much of an ego. During the Favre fiasco, some misguided Packers fans - many of whom said they hated Thompson - threw that accusation at Thompson saying he wanted to dump Favre because his ego was so large he wanted only "his" players and didn't want to share the spotlight with a legend. I never believed that and after watching him after the Super Bowl I think it has become obvious he doesn't have a big ego.

    As to whether he's a strict or soft GM, I would bet he does not lose his temper often but is more reasoned and measured. We know he's disciplined and sticks to his plan so it appears he does not let his emotions rule his decisions. He knows the NFL is a business and as much as he may personally like a player I think he's shown an ability to objectively evaluate even those players and do what he views as what's best for the Packers.

    The most remarkable thing about Thompson to me is the difference one man makes. He used the same scouting department and front office personnel that Sherman as GM did and look at how starkly better his results are. That's just remarkable. The one thing we know for certain in the upcoming draft is Thompson, even if he sees a big need on the team, won't overreact or "reach" to fill it. He'll stick to his plan. And at this point, why the hell wouldn't he?
     
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  16. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    I always hear / read about the 3-5 year wait to grade a draft, but I can't seem to recall ever seeing it done. If the 2007 draft were redone, how would it go? Who were the "winners"? If last years draft were redone this month would Sam Shields go undrafted? Would Bulaga have gotten to the Packers?
     
  17. PackersRS

    PackersRS Cheesehead

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    Yeah...

    I've seen plenty of draft do-overs, but not grading them per se.

    But NFL.COM is attributing winners and losers to past drafts...
    NFL.com news: In hindsight, decision at top highlighted volatile '08 draft
     
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  18. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Well put - and I like the first prediction.

    As far as 1 man making a difference - think about Mayhew in Detroit. He was the head scout in Detroit, he just got a promotion. With Millen running the show, they where awful. Now that he is guiding the organization, they look like a quickly ascending team.
     
  19. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    The results.
     
  20. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    One other opinion on BPA. Okay, you're the GM of a team. You obviously put a tackle up higher if it's a greater need than WR on the same board. So if both are considered blue chippers, your board would reflect that greater need and a higher grade. Really, talent in this year's draft was so close, you'd have to think the Packers chose Randall Cobb as the highest rated player because they needed a returner and a receiver and a running back. No knock on Green or House, but they had him graded higher because of need.
    Consider, if you have a limited staff to revaluate, are you gonna spend alot of time on a QB heavy draft looking at QB? No, you'll send those scouts to look over other players. SO BPA is BPA with team need, else why are you scouting them.
    That's what bothers me about the draft experts, how can they imply they know how happy one team is with their OL or LB corps? They don't. So Green Bay has a perceived need and OLB and in fact they don't go after it for two years.
    I like to think Brooks Reed was everybody's favorite pick for the Pack but they saw Elmore with more production across from Reed and figured a late pick is better for the more productive player, regardless of need. It's just how you perceive your needs.
     

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