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Amish 53rd Annual Draft Contest

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by AmishMafia, Feb 17, 2019.

  1. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    In math it is known as complementary probability. The calculation works as follows:

    1-(190/200 - the chance of getting the first one incorrect)*(189/199 - 2nd one incorrect)*(188/198)*(187/197)*(186/196)*(185/195)*(184*194)*(183/193)*(182/192)*(181/191 - 10th incorrect as well)

    You have to multiple the result times 100 to get the percentage.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    you guys need me to come clear up some math discrepancies?
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  3. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I'd take Oliver. There's plenty 3 technique in this defense for him to do a lot of damage while Daniels has shown decline and is in his contract year.

    I'm not convinced the Packers would not take Hockenson; LaFleur has used multiple TEs in his offense while Graham likely won't be back next season.

    I'm also not convinced Gutekunst would not trade down since the demand for these players at that spot would be pretty high. He'd be in position to ask quite a bit.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  4. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Is it just me or has D.K. Metcalf's stock seemingly fallen back down to earth, after it reached the heavens post combine?

    I remember seeing Mocks where he was going top 10 and now I am seeing Mocks where he isn't even being taken in the first round.

    Another thought on the draft, Kevin King. King was the only member of the Packers not to take part in their voluntary minicamp practice on Wednesday. I think its pretty obvious that King shouldn't be counted on to start at CB for the Packers. Does this force Gute to spend yet another high pick on the position?
     
  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Do you know about the reason King missed the practice???
     
  6. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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  8. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    No doubt. But I still don't think Gute and the Packers can really be too comfortable relying on him to be on the field. In 2 years he has taken part in 684 snaps. Tramon Williams was on the field for 1059 last year alone.
     
  9. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    As I've mentioned above there's definitely reason to be concerned about King being able to stay on the field.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    According to one report, King was at practice but was seen doing only light jogging:

    https://www.packersnews.com/story/s...ain-ending-season-injured-reserve/2218473002/

    There must be some kind of medical issue involved even if it is precautionary. I have not seen a report as to whether he had right shoulder surgery this offseason as was the case with the left shoulder the previous offseason. That second surgery would be a possible explanation. Or maybe he pulled his hamstring or groin again working out.
     
  11. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    Thanks again to Amish for hosting this event for the 53rd consecutive year! The golf outing and lunch following it this afternoon was amazing! Having Aaron Rodgers, Lady Gaga and Mr. Ed in my foursome, is something I will never forget!

    I wish everybody good luck with their entries and may the $1 Million Dollar winner enjoy the money, as well as the all expense paid 2 week private Cruise with Erin Andrews!

    Go Pack Go!
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
    • Winner Winner x 1
  12. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Super Moderator Moderator

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    Back open. I don't have time to do the math. Think I got the TE in the wrong round.
     
  13. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I did the same, I mean wait...we can edit?....I was a perfect 8 for 8! :cool:
     
  14. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Well I did bad
     
  15. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Scanning through the picks, I don't think anybody got any names right except for Savage and Sternberger.

    Jetfixer wins? We await the final tally.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    There's a "last edited" day and time stamp (or date stamp if the edit is more than a week old) that appears in the lower right hand corner of edited posts.

    So, yeah, you could go 8 for 8 but you would be disqualified. :tdown:
     
  17. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    You telling me I am going to need my DeLorean to pull this off?

    [​IMG]
     
  18. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    All the flux capacitors in the world won't solve Einstein's backward time travel paradox which is indirectly a central theme of the movie. If you could go back in time and then kill your father before you were conceived, perhaps by accidental flux capacitor explosion into a nuclear mushroom cloud (who can trust a thing that runs on banana peels?), then you would have never existed to go back in time in the first place.

    In case Einstein was wrong, I've already taken a screen shot of your picks. ;)
     
    • Funny Funny x 2
  19. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    [​IMG]
     
  20. DoURant

    DoURant Cheesehead

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    I think there were 2 guys who scored the same. they both had Sternberger in the 3rd for 6 pts and both had Savage in wrong round for 3. Jetfixer and Favre>Rodgers259
     
  21. PackFan2

    PackFan2 Cheesehead

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    I wasn't even close :roflmao::roflmao::roflmao:
     
  22. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    I think I counted
    2 posters with 9 pts Sternberger n Savage (2-way)
    3 posters with 6pts....Sternberger (2nd place 3-way)
    Everyone else zero

    Last year we had pick #101 and I picked Ian Thomas round 4. We traded to get Burks and Ian went #101! There’s some irony there (Right pick exactly..but wrong team) but stuff happens. :confused:

    It was hit or miss this year, no in between ​
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2019
    • Optimistic Optimistic x 1
  23. DoURant

    DoURant Cheesehead

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    I know I had 3 pts with Savage, I mocked him in the 2nd
     
  24. Pokerbrat2000

    Pokerbrat2000 Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.

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    I had Paris Campbell in the 7th, what did I win? :cool:
     
    • Winner Winner x 2
  25. DoURant

    DoURant Cheesehead

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    Not many of us were, I had Savage, but that's it. Gute didn't look at our picks this year...or he did and gave us the big one finger salute. ;)
     
    • Funny Funny x 1

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