All Things Defense

[OldSchool101]

In an effort to keep things interesting without narrowing the scope of the material. Defensive News, Defense rumors Defense what you got?? Some analysts expect GB to regress, but I don’t see it.
What are your thoughts or predictions or concerns?

Something I thought interesting.
I’m not really sure what to make of it.

Defensive rankings By Qtr 2024 in scoring allowed:

Qtr1 #1
Qtr2 #28
Qtr3 #20
Qtr4 #1

 

[OldSchool101]

Total Yards per Play allowed 2024
#5 (5.2yds,4-way Tie GB, TN, SF, Balt)

Yards per Rushing attempt:
#1 Baltimore 3.6
#2 Denver 3.9
#3 GB 4.0

Rushing TD Allowed
#10 (13TD tie GB, TB, KC)

Actually a pretty Stout Run D in 2024
Now factor we lost 2 players that will have any real effect on that group
1. TJ Slaton (39% 427 snaps)

The battle to eat TJ’s portion inside (no pun!) will likely include:
Wooden, Stackhouse, Brinson
While none are proven at the NFL level at iDL, the Winner will likely see the Bulk of interior Snaps allowed by Slatons wake.

 

[OldSchool101]

2. Eric Wilson (51% 558 snaps).
37 targets 31 rec 83.8%
10.1 yards per, 106% Passer rating

So I think Edgerrin (55% 491 snaps) will be more involved. He only played like 27 snaps Week1-2 until they slowly ramped him then he missed 3 weeks back half of the season. I suspect if healthy he’ll finish more in that 600-700 snaps area and eat up a portion of Wilson’s duties.

Then there will likely be a battle between Simmons and Hopper for those bulk of what could be 300-400 snaps leftover. IMO, Simmons will have the upper edge due to pure years of experience. Hopper offers a solid history of Pass coverage and mixed with pass rush prowess also, so he might push for a bigger role. Yet he’s the most unproven at this juncture. He’ll need to prove his case convincingly in Camp and Preseason if he’ll possibly be relegated to Teams or mop up duty.

I do understand why our FO brought Simmons into the fold. Eric brought a thorough level of experience that will be missed. Hopper is likely too green to be expected to be that guy this early. His primary negative coming into the NFL was size against bigger Pro level players. He’s a little slight in the lower half for a LB in that 232lb at 6’2”. He may need 1 more year to fill out and that’s fine.

 

[Voyageur]

Interesting batch of stats. I too ask what happens in the 2nd & 3rd quarters?

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting batch of stats. I too ask what happens in the 2nd & 3rd quarters?

and maybe it’s that porpoise feel for our D showing up/not showing up that has some speculative that 2024 was a fluke? Again, I’m not suggesting I agree we’re due for a regression. We only had 2 areas where we lost a player with meaning snaps. LB/iDL
The core of this Defense is still intact.

 

[Voyageur]

and maybe it’s that porpoise feel for our D showing up/not showing up that has some speculative that 2024 was a fluke? Again, I’m not suggesting I agree we’re due for a regression. We only had 2 areas where we lost a player with meaning snaps. LB/iDL
The core of this Defense is still intact.

It's difficult predicting how a team will play year after year. New faces, player growth, player decline, concept changes due to often minor personnel changes. It all adds to the mystery. That's why they play the entire season. It's like Sally Fields in Forrest Gump. "It's like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

 

[El Guapo]

Losing Slaton will hurt our run D unless someone really steps up.

 

[Thirteen Below]

Something I thought interesting.
I’m not really sure what to make of it.

Defensive rankings By Qtr 2024 in scoring allowed:

Qtr1 #1
Qtr2 #28
Qtr3 #20
Qtr4 #1

I'm not sure what to make of it either, but I think that is a jawdropping data point. I'm really impressed with the way you keep coming up with these statistical "deep dives"; and I think this one is really significant.

Something ain't right there. There's a huge problem in those numbers.
It looks like one of two things are happening - that the way our D is playing in Q2 and Q3 is very different than they are playing in Q1 and Q4 - or, the way opponents are playing us in Q2 and Q3 is very different than they are playing us in Q1 and Q4.

One thing I'm sure of is that if you spotted that, the Green Bay staff spotted it too. From what I've seen of Hafley the past year, i am pretty confident that he and his people are breaking it down and figuring out why this pattern has been repeating over an 18-week season. I have faith that whatever this is, Hafley is going to have an answer for it.

 

[Voyageur]

I'm not sure what to make of it either, but I think that is a jawdropping data point. I'm really impressed with the way you keep coming up with these statistical "deep dives"; and I think this one is really significant.

Something ain't right there. There's a huge problem in those numbers.
It looks like one of two things are happening - that the way our D is playing in Q2 and Q3 is very different than they are playing in Q1 and Q4 - or, the way opponents are playing us in Q2 and Q3 is very different than they are playing us in Q1 and Q4.

One thing I'm sure of is that if you spotted that, the Green Bay staff spotted it too. From what I've seen of Hafley the past year, i am pretty confident that he and his people are breaking it down and figuring out why this pattern has been repeating over an 18-week season. I have faith that whatever this is, Hafley is going to have an answer for it.

I wonder if a lot of that drop off is due to rotations on the DL and LB. If the depth isn't there, and you're playing first line players more at the beginning and end of games, it could indicate that in the two middle quarters you're giving the starters a lot less field time.

That statistic would have to focus not only on how much time each player spends on the field, the combinations of who they are, and when those times are during the game.

It would probably be something along the lines of the newer basketball stat where they keep track of the plus and minus scoring for a team with each player in the rotation on the floor. It can give you a striking amount of information on just how effective the team is with each player although not a purely accurate reading.

Another area that I'd consider would be the defensive calls being made. We've all talked about how the Packers will try to sit on a small lead with their offense and it has caused the opposition to get back in games. Is it the defensive calls are more conservative during the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Like you said, Hafely ain't no dummy so he's going to be all over those stats and figuring it out with the help of all the analytics and coaching info they can muster.

 

[OldSchool101]

I wonder if a lot of that drop off is due to rotations on the DL and LB. If the depth isn't there, and you're playing first line players more at the beginning and end of games, it could indicate that in the two middle quarters you're giving the starters a lot less field time.

That statistic would have to focus not only on how much time each player spends on the field, the combinations of who they are, and when those times are during the game.

It would probably be something along the lines of the newer basketball stat where they keep track of the plus and minus scoring for a team with each player in the rotation on the floor. It can give you a striking amount of information on just how effective the team is with each player although not a purely accurate reading.

Another area that I'd consider would be the defensive calls being made. We've all talked about how the Packers will try to sit on a small lead with their offense and it has caused the opposition to get back in games. Is it the defensive calls are more conservative during the 2nd and 3rd quarters.

Good points. I like your idea about Starter rotation factoring. It jumps off the page at me because it seems logical we’d start our best lineup and finish with our best lineup.

I remember a period of time that our Defensive response in Quarter 3 was noticeably good. It might’ve been earlier Dom Capers frame or slightly before, someone in here might recall.

I’m most impressed with our 4th Quarter Defense. That seems like it would be a really positive sign going forward. I’d try to replicate more of the 4th Qtr scheme or rotation earlier.

 

[OldSchool101]

Something ain't right there. There's a huge problem in those numbers.
It looks like one of two things are happening - that the way our D is playing in Q2 and Q3 is very different than they are playing in Q1 and Q4 - or, the way opponents are playing us in Q2 and Q3 is very different than they are playing us in Q1 and Q4.

Good points. One reason (it’s not the only one) an opponent would change the way they play Offense in QTR4 Is with a big lead. So I scanned the Games. There were only 2 potential games where opponents could’ve taken their foot off the gas that I could find. Really more like one, I’ll show that below.

Week4: Minnesota 28-7 end of Q3,
but Tucker Kraft scored at Q4 10:16 left Score 22-28, so I’m going to throw that one out after review. It’s definitely not one of those run the clock out games.

That leaves 1 contest where it IS likely WEEK8: Detroit 24-6 end of Q3 took their foot off the gas and ran clock starting at 3:49 of Q4 and thus affected our D scoring. So after quick review we’re pretty much a legit #1 QTR4 Defense. Personally if I had to chose any Qtr to rank #1 in scoring allowed I’d likely take Qtr4 when it often matters.

I’m really impressed with Coach Hafley. He’s somehow found way to finish games at the highest level in the NFL. I’m hoping this is a sign that when the pressure is at its peak, Hafley responds with placing players in positions to bring out peak performance. We shall get a better feel in Season #2 with our DC

 

[Voyageur]

I think a lot of it could also come down to the offense. If the offense cooks in the 1st and 4th they control the ball. Not so much in the 2nd & 3rd and the defense gets worn down and spends more time on the field.

The #1 priority in a football game is to control the football. When you have it in your possession it's very difficult for the defense to score against you unless someone messes up or they get lucky.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think a lot of it could also come down to the offense. If the offense cooks in the 1st and 4th they control the ball. Not so much in the 2nd & 3rd and the defense gets worn down and spends more time on the field.

that’s exactly what I think happened to many Dom Capers Defenses. They’d get left on the field too much. With this current Offense we are running so much more. The most since Ahman Green suited up.
I wonder if some of the Run game last season was to protect Love also

 

[milani]

that’s exactly what I think happened to many Dom Capers Defenses. They’d get left on the field too much. With this current Offense we are running so much more. The most since Ahman Green suited up.
I wonder if some of the Run game last season was to protect Love also

Good to see the running game taking a return to the NFL. Mobile QBs are a part of it. No team wants their QB throwing 30-40 times a game anymore. Barkley had a great year. But today I think you cannot expect one guy to take all the carries. Amazed at how Frank Gore survived so long.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It's difficult predicting how a team will play year after year. New faces, player growth, player decline, concept changes due to often minor personnel changes. It all adds to the mystery. That's why they play the entire season. It's like Sally Fields in Forrest Gump. "It's like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

Those are all good reasons why every season, even for teams with few changes, can be so different. And it holds true for the playoffs. On another thread we were discussing the 2008 SB win by the Giants *by way of GB) over an undefeated Patriots' team. And the unlikely SB run GB made in 2010-2011 when they ran the table from the 6th, and last, seed.

It makes Brady's seven SB rings all the more amazing. It's hard enough to get one - ask Favre, Rodgers, Brees - much less seven.

 

[Heyjoe4]

In an effort to keep things interesting without narrowing the scope of the material. Defensive News, Defense rumors Defense what you got?? Some analysts expect GB to regress, but I don’t see it.
What are your thoughts or predictions or concerns?

Something I thought interesting.
I’m not really sure what to make of it.

Defensive rankings By Qtr 2024 in scoring allowed:

Qtr1 #1
Qtr2 #28
Qtr3 #20
Qtr4 #1

Thanks for the research OS, very interesting. I never would have guessed the D played that lopsided from QTR to QTR.

What I most look forward to, with anticipation, are the pressures/sacks/INTs/pass breakups delivered by this D. At DT/DE/Edge Gluten is pretty much bringing back last year's gang. He sees something I certainly can't see. At the same time, I trust him.

 

[OldSchool101]

Thanks for the research OS, very interesting. I never would have guessed the D played that lopsided from QTR to QTR.

What I most look forward to, with anticipation, are the pressures/sacks/INTs/pass breakups delivered by this D. At DT/DE/Edge Gluten is pretty much bringing back last year's gang. He sees something I certainly can't see. At the same time, I trust him.

These are observations that might’ve at least partially impacted our Pass Rush. It’s not excuses, but reasoning that we might not have reached anywhere close to our ceiling.

1. Clark spoke to the fact he played the bulk (if not all) of the 2024 season with a Toe injury. An injury that was serious enough to go under the knife once the season concluded. WHEN did this occur? Game 1 San Paola

Pack's Clark underwent foot surgery in January

Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark revealed Tuesday after an OTA practice that he underwent surgery in January shortly after the season to fix a problem with his right foot that he said started in Brazil.

www.espn.com

2. Lukas Van Ness
We may or may not recall that LVN was in a system at Iowa that awarded its most experienced players playing time. He was used in a rotation that peaked around 50% D snaps. Lukas did not start a game in College and still was awarded 2nd-Team All Conference. The talent has always been there, the time needed to develop was not. Many scouts thought he should’ve stayed in College in 2023, instead he declared as a Sophomore. Lukas was a Consensus Day 1 NFL selection as a Sophomore. Which speaks volumes in itself.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10055070-lukas-van-ness-nfl-draft-2023-scouting-report-for-iowa-edge

In 2024 his snap count increased from 33% to 39%, but he dealt with a Broken thumb for a significant portion of the season. WHEN did this injury occur?? 2024 OTA’s

What I did not know was not only did he flip systems, he was referred to exclusively lining up over LT.
Who is the best player on the bulk of OL in the NFL? LT
The Scheme change is by itself a major adjustment. Which imo is why Preston had such difficulty transitioning also.

How Much Did Lukas Van Ness' Thumb Injury Impact His Quiet Second Season? - Zone Coverage

The noise surrounding Lukas Van Ness has been quiet this offseason relative to how much he’ll mean to the Green Bay Packers' defense this upcoming season.

zonecoverage.com

Van Ness 2024
First10 games
1 Sack
2 QB hits
4 QB Press
1 QB Knockdown

Last7 games
2 Sacks
4 QB hits
6 QB Press
2 QB knockdowns

 

[OldSchool101]

Just for the record. I know I’ve seen all these articles pop up about how horrible our GB pass rush was in 2024. Just because we didn’t post flashy individual numbers does not imply we were bad.

Blitz QB pressure rate
#1 Packers (48.3%)
#2 Jets (48.2%)
#3 KC Chiefs (45.2%)

Blitz Pass Rush Win Rate
#3 Packers

Total Sacks #8 tied

from PFF
The Packers led the NFL in pressure rate and ranked third in pass-rush win rate. A significant part of that success came from rookie linebacker Edgerrin Cooper, who earned a 90.0 pass rush grade, and cornerback Keisean Nixon, who posted a 92.7 grade on his blitzes.

​

 

[OldSchool101]

2024 QB Hurries

#1 Detroit Lions (87)
#2 Dallas Cowboys (79)
#3 Tampa Bay-New Orleans (63) TIED
#5 Green Bay-Minnesota-K.C. (62)

NFL Pressure Rate Leaders: Stunts​

Los Angeles Rams	51.4%
Cleveland Browns	48.6%
Minnesota Vikings	48.6%
Chicago Bears	48.6%
Green Bay Packers	46.7%

Seems to me if GB has any kind of notable improvement in 2025, they’d easily be one of the Elite Defenses in the NFL. The expectation is ALWAYS to be #1. However we are not the only team with that mentality.

 

[OldSchool101]

2025 “Pass Rush” player - losses:

LB Eric Wilson (2024)
2 Sacks
4 QB hits
7 QB pressures

2025 “Pass Rush” + additions:

LB Isaiah Simmons FA
DE Barryn Sorrell 4th Rd
DE Colin Oliver 5th Rd
DT Warren Brinson 6th

DE Brenton Cox Jr. ((I’m adding him honorable mention to be more involved because he really did miss much (10 games) of last season)).

 

[Thirteen Below]

Van Ness 2024
First10 games
1 Sack
2 QB hits
4 QB Press
1 QB Knockdown

Last7 games
2 Sacks
4 QB hits
6 QB Press
2 QB knockdowns

The last 7 games were the games where he finally got the full cast off.

There were a lot of things in that article that I was not aware of; I think most of us fans were unaware of many of those things. Many of us were also puzzled that Gukekunst was so excited about Van Ness in this coming season.

But in retrospect, it's obvious that Gute had a clear understanding of the whole picture, that article may contain the answer to that mystery. Extrapolate those numbers from the last 7 games out over a 17-game season, and Van Ness would have had a pretty respectable sophomore year.

 

[Voyageur]

The last 7 games were the games where he finally got the full cast off.

There were a lot of things in that article that I was not aware of; I think most of us fans were unaware of many of those things. Many of us were also puzzled that Gukekunst was so excited about Van Ness in this coming season.

But in retrospect, it's obvious that Gute had a clear understanding of the whole picture, that article may contain the answer to that mystery. Extrapolate those numbers from the last 7 games out over a 17-game season, and Van Ness would have had a pretty respectable sophomore year.

This is what I spoke about with Van Ness. Don't become bogged down by what's perceived as not so great stats because if look at the pressure he applied to QBs playing opposite arguably the best offensive linemen on the opposition, he did not do a bad job. Add on his injury and it tells a much different story.

Like I said, normal stats don't really tell the whole story on the play of individuals. Often you have to lift the hood and look inside.

 

[OldSchool101]

This is what I spoke about with Van Ness. Don't become bogged down by what's perceived as not so great stats because if look at the pressure he applied to QBs playing opposite arguably the best offensive linemen on the opposition, he did not do a bad job. Add on his injury and it tells a much different story.

Like I said, normal stats don't really tell the whole story on the play of individuals. Often you have to lift the hood and look inside.

This is why guys rise and fall on draft boards also. The stats have to be validated with knowing the full story of player. Who would’ve ever guessed Shedur would be available in Round 5. Shedur had impressive stats for Colorado but something obviously spooked GM’s or there’s no way he slides into Round 5.
Heck the other year, I would’ve drafted TE Darnell Washington using a 2nd Rounder feeling good about it. Nobody took him until #93 overall.

 

[Heyjoe4]

These are observations that might’ve at least partially impacted our Pass Rush. It’s not excuses, but reasoning that we might not have reached anywhere close to our ceiling.

1. Clark spoke to the fact he played the bulk (if not all) of the 2024 season with a Toe injury. An injury that was serious enough to go under the knife once the season concluded. WHEN did this occur? Game 1 San Paola

Pack's Clark underwent foot surgery in January

Packers defensive tackle Kenny Clark revealed Tuesday after an OTA practice that he underwent surgery in January shortly after the season to fix a problem with his right foot that he said started in Brazil.

www.espn.com

2. Lukas Van Ness
We may or may not recall that LVN was in a system at Iowa that awarded its most experienced players playing time. He was used in a rotation that peaked around 50% D snaps. Lukas did not start a game in College and still was awarded 2nd-Team All Conference. The talent has always been there, the time needed to develop was not. Many scouts thought he should’ve stayed in College in 2023, instead he declared as a Sophomore. Lukas was a Consensus Day 1 NFL selection as a Sophomore. Which speaks volumes in itself.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10055070-lukas-van-ness-nfl-draft-2023-scouting-report-for-iowa-edge

In 2024 his snap count increased from 33% to 39%, but he dealt with a Broken thumb for a significant portion of the season. WHEN did this injury occur?? 2024 OTA’s

What I did not know was not only did he flip systems, he was referred to exclusively lining up over LT.
Who is the best player on the bulk of OL in the NFL? LT
The Scheme change is by itself a major adjustment. Which imo is why Preston had such difficulty transitioning also.

How Much Did Lukas Van Ness' Thumb Injury Impact His Quiet Second Season? - Zone Coverage

The noise surrounding Lukas Van Ness has been quiet this offseason relative to how much he’ll mean to the Green Bay Packers' defense this upcoming season.

zonecoverage.com

Van Ness 2024
First10 games
1 Sack
2 QB hits
4 QB Press
1 QB Knockdown

Last7 games
2 Sacks
4 QB hits
6 QB Press
2 QB knockdowns

Thanks for those stats OS. Yeah it sounds like Clark played with "turf toe" the entire season. "Turf toe" doesn't sound like much but it affects the big toe, can be very painful, and requires a lot of rest, if not surgery, to heal. That accounts for some of Clark's regression last year, but I still think his best days are now passed.

As for LVN, yeah I'm aware of the lame system Iowa uses to determine playing time. So GB has a #12 pick who never started a college game. I don't think that's the problem with LVN.

LVN's problem is his flexibility - his inability to bend at the waist. It makes it very hard for him to get around or underneath an OT. He is frequently pushed away and behind the QB on passing downs.

That's not something that can be easily changed. He certainly looks like a star Edge player. I hope the new DL/Edge coach can show him some techniques to make up for his lack of bend. It's too soon to say he is a bust - but this year will determine his future in GB, maybe in the NFL. He has a lot of pressure to deal with and I hope he succeeds. Hugely.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm kind of hoping they give him a go on the interior like they said. Just to see how well he can play from there.