All duds panthers

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Such large upsets where the underdog wins outright are extremely rare in the NFL, historically occurring in less than 5% of games where the spread is greater than 14 points. The largest point spread upset since 1985 remains Washington's 24-17 victory at Dallas in 1995, when Washington was a 17.5-point underdog.

Sometimes the ball bounces your way and sometimes it doesn’t. Also some opponents just match up well. The Panthers have a good pair of RB’s. Running the ball well is the near perfect antidote for settling GB. If GB makes just 1 or 2 mistakes you hold us to 1 score. GB had just THREE possessions across an entire Half. We made 2 critical mistakes. A Fumble in the Redzone and a Missed 43 yard FG. They had the ideal game plan to run and churn the clock. Again I give credit to Carolina they played us like a fiddle.

#1 When you get limited possession and it’s a low scoring game..Always take the points if it’s inside 1 possession and there’s adequate time to get the ball back. Such as over 5:00 in regulation with 2+ timeouts. Here we had 11:00 minutes! That’s easily 2 possessions for us. Our failure to use common sense and close the gap to 4 points is mind boggling. Added to that. The 4th and 8 wasn’t even necessarily points! because we had just lost -5 yards so it’s not 4th n Goal! Anything outside 4th n 4 area is a big no no if there’s plenty of time left. If it’s 4th n 3 or 4th n 1.5 I get it, because we at worst leave Carolina at the 1 yard line. Then for them 1st down is an automatic run up the gut. So they’d lose a down and also risk a turnover or safety etc.

#2#missing FG’s consecutive weeks is becoming concerning. Understandable past 50 yards or so. A 43 yarder is a 90%+ Kick around the league. Gotta make those or you’ll flat out lose closer, lower scoring games (which it was 100% clear this was). Teams is becoming unreliable too regularly.
 

Magooch

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One other thing we may note:

Carolina's defense finished with -5.28 total defensive EPA (pass defense+rush defense+defensive penalties)
Green Bay's defense finished with -6.92 total defensive EPA by the same measure

Parse it out a bit further and you find that Carolina's pass defense was AWFUL (-9.9) and rush defense pretty solid (+3.33) while our pass defense came in at +0.77 and a poor showing from the rush defense at -8.75
(The inverse of these can also be read as the opposite team's offense, i.e. GB +9.9 pass EPA, -3.33 rush EPA, and so on)

Special teams was again a net negative for us at -1.36 (Panthers again the inverse, +1.36), once again largely influenced by terrible punt returns and mediocre kick coverage. And at the end of the day Carolina finished on +3 EPA compared to us, and won the game by....3. So there you have it lol

And ultimately, they finished with 50-50 time of possession, same number of offensive drives (7 each) and averaged 5 yards per play on offense. IMO if you approached Dave Canales ahead of the game and said "You'll split TOP, split drives, average 5 ypp, and be in position to attempt a game winning field goal at the end," he would HAPPILY take that outcome, make or miss lol
 
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longtimefan

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Difference being today there was 11:00 min in 4th quarter. That’s an eternity.

Also in the NFC game 8 yards should’ve never happened. We had FOUR chances to get 8 yards IF it’s 4thh n short. So we had THREE chances to get 6 yards in actuality.

Also. Here a 1st down in NOT guaranteed points. Recall we lost -5 on the last play. We were at the Car13. In the NFC we were at the Tam8.

Sometimes the ball bounces your way and sometimes it doesn’t. Also some opponents just match up well. The Panthers have a good pair of RB’s. Running the ball well is the near perfect antidote for settling GB. If GB makes just 1 or 2 mistakes you hold us to 1 score. GB had just THREE possessions across an entire Half. We made 2 critical mistakes. A Fumble in the Redzone and a Missed 43 yard FG. They had the ideal game plan to run and churn the clock. Again I give credit to Carolina they played us like a fiddle.

#1 When you get limited possession and it’s a low scoring game..Always take the points if it’s inside 1 possession and there’s adequate time to get the ball back. Such as over 5:00 in regulation with 2+ timeouts. Here we had 11:00 minutes! That’s easily 2 possessions for us. Our failure to use common sense and close the gap to 4 points is mind boggling. Added to that. The 4th and 8 wasn’t even necessarily points! because we had just lost -5 yards so it’s not 4th n Goal! Anything outside 4th n 4 area is a big no no if there’s plenty of time left. If it’s 4th n 3 or 4th n 1.5 I get it, because we at worst leave Carolina at the 1 yard line. Then for them 1st down is an automatic run up the gut. So they’d lose a down and also risk a turnover or safety etc.

#2#missing FG’s consecutive weeks is becoming concerning. Understandable past 50 yards or so. A 43 yarder is a 90%+ Kick around the league. Gotta make those or you’ll flat out lose closer, lower scoring games (which it was 100% clear this was). Teams is becoming unreliable too regularly.
I think McManus is still hurting
 

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I guess when the Packers defense finds themselves in a game like yesterday, Hafley needs to figure out how to stop those outside runs, while still maintaining the pass rush. Another question that I have. Was the loss of Clark and now Wyatt's injury so big that Walker and Cooper are not get clean tackling lanes for inside runs?

That's the kind of thing I'd need All-22 to answer. What I thought I saw was us doing well on the initial read and then the running back finding the perfect cutback opening. If we won inside, he'd bounce out. If we won outside, he'd win inside.

To my eye, Dowdle is a great back and he got significantly more yards than what was blocked.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Could he be lying about his injury
Well that lie shouldn't last much longer, if he keeps missing.

He is only 3 of 8 from 40 and beyond this season. With what they just paid him, that isn't acceptable, healthy or not. One of those was blocked due to poor blocking, but that still makes him a 50% from 40 and out, not good.
 

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I agree, which makes me ask the question....WTF is he out there? Havrisik is still on the 53, the last time I checked. If McManus is healthy, why is Havrisik still on the 53?
The handling of that situation has really baffled me too. If you don't think McManus is 100%, why is he active on the gameday roster and not Havrisik?
If he is...how long are you going to stash Havrisik for?

Even if McManus is lying...do kickers just not practice throughout the week? Maybe I'm naive but I'd like to think the coaches and medical staff who have observed these guys day in and day out would be able to pick up if a guy's trying to mask an injury.

Of course we did get this gem from MLF just a few days ago regarding McManus... "He looked good. I didn't ask him how he felt. I don't talk to kickers. I would assume he felt OK."

And went on to say on Monday, when asked about McManus' health... "Kickers miss kicks. That's what I can tell you." And as I recall McManus was limited in Wednesday practice, but still gets the start come Sunday... Nothing about it smells right IMO.
 
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The handling of that situation has really baffled me too. If you don't think McManus is 100%, why is he active on the gameday roster and not Havrisik?
If he is...how long are you going to stash Havrisik for?

Even if McManus is lying...do kickers just not practice throughout the week? Maybe I'm naive but I'd like to think the coaches and medical staff who have observed these guys day in and day out would be able to pick up if a guy's trying to mask an injury.

Of course we did get this gem from MLF just a few days ago regarding McManus... "He looked good. I didn't ask him how he felt. I don't talk to kickers. I would assume he felt OK."

And went on to say on Monday, when asked about McManus' health... "Kickers miss kicks. That's what I can tell you." And as I recall McManus was limited in Wednesday practice, but still gets the start come Sunday... Nothing about it smells right IMO.
Where is his coach and explaining what happened
 

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That's the kind of thing I'd need All-22 to answer. What I thought I saw was us doing well on the initial read and then the running back finding the perfect cutback opening. If we won inside, he'd bounce out. If we won outside, he'd win inside.

To my eye, Dowdle is a great back and he got significantly more yards than what was blocked.

My thought on the Packers current defense and why Hafley is kind of handcuffed with what he does. The DB's, especially the CB's, he has to work with are not very good. Therefore, he doesn't have the freedom to run a lot of stunts and blitzes, for fear that his secondary will just get carved up. So how do you attack a predictable defense like that? You run the ball outside or right at them. You throw quick short passes. Packer linebackers are being asked to help in coverage, so that means they are on the balls of their feet, instead of leaning forward and playing the run.
 

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My thought on the Packers current defense and why Hafley is kind of handcuffed with what he does. The DB's, especially the CB's, he has to work with are not very good. Therefore, he doesn't have the freedom to run a lot of stunts and blitzes, for fear that his secondary will just get carved up. So how do you attack a predictable defense like that? You run the ball outside or right at them. You throw quick short passes. Packer linebackers are being asked to help in coverage, so that means they are on the balls of their feet, instead of leaning forward and playing the run.

I think some of this right, some of the conclusions are not.

If you're in zone, the entire back 7 has their eyes in the backfield. That should help your run defense, at the expense at being more vulnerable to play action--if everyone gets sucked up by the play fake, they're out of position against the pass. Similarly, stunts usually hurt in the run game. T-E games can take a man right out of the play.

Linebackers do have a hard job, but they are more often than not coverage players on pass plays. A blitz rate (5 or more rushers) of 30% is normally high, though that does fluctuate a little year to year. The Panthers ran 20 pass plays. Assuming the rate held, we should expect have sent extra rushers on 6 plays. The other 14, the linebackers are playing coverage. And if we only send one of Cooper and Quay, the other has coverage responsibilities.

I do agree the CBs are a weakness and that limits the games Hafley can play in coverage.
 

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I think some of this right, some of the conclusions are not.

If you're in zone, the entire back 7 has their eyes in the backfield. That should help your run defense, at the expense at being more vulnerable to play action--if everyone gets sucked up by the play fake, they're out of position against the pass. Similarly, stunts usually hurt in the run game. T-E games can take a man right out of the play.

Linebackers do have a hard job, but they are more often than not coverage players on pass plays. A blitz rate (5 or more rushers) of 30% is normally high, though that does fluctuate a little year to year. The Panthers ran 20 pass plays. Assuming the rate held, we should expect have sent extra rushers on 6 plays. The other 14, the linebackers are playing coverage. And if we only send one of Cooper and Quay, the other has coverage responsibilities.

I do agree the CBs are a weakness and that limits the games Hafley can play in coverage.

Good explanation thanks. Like I have admitted to before, I am not much of an X and O's guy. That said and given your explanation of our defense, why is it that we don't see many tackles by our DB's at, behind or near the LOS? I just get the impression that whether there are 4 or 5 of them out there, they are so hell bent on trying to play pass defense against the 3-4 guys that might be running routes, that we are left with not enough guys near the LOS to limit run plays to short yardage, unless a LB is freed up.
 

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Bingo!

Pretty much summed up my feeling as we drove home from the game. Not sure if my feelings were influenced by the fans in the stands, more than what you get on the TV. However, if you didn't hear it at home, Love and the offense and probably MLF, got booed pretty loudly as they were coming off the field after the 4th and 8 play. As a matter of fact, quite a few people left the stadium. I have not heard or seen that in quite awhile. There were 10 minutes left and the Packers were only down 7! How do these people leave right now was my only thought (as I boo'd MLF's decision to go for it on 4th and 8).

Those ********** don't deserve to ever have tickets again....
 

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The Packers added Micah Parsons and it sure looks like they're not a better team. That's hard to do. To match last year's win total, the Packers would need to go 6-3 the rest of the way. With games at Detroit, Minneapolis and Denver and tough home games against the Ravens, Eagles and Vikings that will be very unlikely. Given the knack for losing to bad teams, the chances of losing one or more to the Giants and Bears is high.
 

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The Packers added Micah Parsons and it sure looks like they're not a better team. That's hard to do. To match last year's win total, the Packers would need to go 6-3 the rest of the way. With games at Detroit, Minneapolis and Denver and tough home games against the Ravens, Eagles and Vikings that will be very unlikely. Given the knack for losing to bad teams, the chances of losing one or more to the Giants and Bears is high.

Our defense is incredibly better and Parsons is for sure a factor in that.

Defense is tied for the 6th fewest points given up on the year, 4th lowest yards against total, second best in yards/play, 6th best in passing yards given up, 5th best in rushing yards given up.
 

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Those ********** don't deserve to ever have tickets again....
Agree. I mean if it is THAT important to beat traffic and get home 20 minutes earlier, than stay home and watch it on TV. It was the kind of booing and mass exodus that you see when a team is down by 3 or more scores with 10 minutes left. I think too many fans saw this as a blowout game and a day at the park, that being down 7, felt like 37.
 

mradtke66

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That said and given your explanation of our defense, why is it that we don't see many tackles by our DB's at, behind or near the LOS? I just get the impression that whether there are 4 or 5 of them out there, they are so hell bent on trying to play pass defense against the 3-4 guys that might be running routes, that we are left with not enough guys near the LOS to limit run plays to short yardage, unless a LB is freed up.

At a high level, DBs shouldn't be responsible for making tackles at the LOS all that often. Maybe a safety depending on any particular play. Most NFL defenses are single-gap defenses. The linemen often align in a gap and they are responsible for runs to that gap. The linebackers are filled in based on offensive and defensive alignment. An easy example, in a 4-3, you often have a one DT as a 1 technique, one in a 3. The 1, outside shoulder of the center, is considered to be in one A gap. The middle linebacker, Mike, is normally responsible for the other A gap. The 3 technique is aligned on the outside shoulder of the guard and is considered to be responsible for that B gap.

To stop the run against base offense, you're hoping your Mike or your Will can scrape fast enough to be able stop the run with only 7 men in the box. It does require the defense to play well because they have 8 people to account for: 5 linemen, 1 TE, 1 FB, and the ball carrier. This is why defenses will bring the SS into the box on obvious running down and distances: 1 man to 1 man against the run. And in turn, this is why quarterback runs work as well as they do--they break run blocking math. Of course the risk it getting the QB hurt, but its all a trade off.

Going further down the rabbit hole, every defense aspires to rushing 4 and dropping 7. The reality is you need to play games in order to win, but it helps to start with the basics.

In every offensive scheme, there are 5 eligible receivers (exception: if the quarterback is shotgun, he can also catch a pass, but normally there is trickery happening and a different eligible receiver is now throwing). To run Man-2, ie, man to man w/ safeties deep, both CBs and all three linebackers have a man. In almost all situations, 1WR = 1CB, leaving the linebackers to deal with the HB, FB, and TE.

Cover-2 or Tampa-2 requires all 7 to drop in zone. The safeties have deep halves, just like in Man-2, the corners have the flats, the linebackers have the medium under-zones, 1/3 each.

In cover-3, the FS and CBs each have a deep 3rd, the SS and the linebackers have the medium zones, 1/4 each.

Cover-4 has the FS, SS, and CBs each with a deep quarter (ergo the secondary name, quarters) and the linebackers have the medium zones, 1/3 each.

If you're following along, Cover-N tells you how many "safeties" the coverage has. And you can tell a lot about what is probably going to happen on any play by finding the safeties and then watching if/how the roll after the ball is snapped.

Cover-1, single high safety, is usually a man coverage and 1 extra rusher or a spy.

Cover-0 is straight man and you're rushing 6. Extremely high risk--if the offense can block it well enough, someone is going to get open. If can be as easy take snap, take one step, ball is out. The defense is hoping to disrupt the patterns and have that ball fall harmlessly to the turf, but if you have a player that can win off the line (think D. Adams) and a quarterback who can get the ball out on target and on time, the defense has lost before the ball is even snapped.

Regardless of the coverage being ran, the secondary can elect to press, play "regular", or play off. Cover-2 normally wants to press to help cover up the natural holes in the zones. Seattle happily pressed out of cover-3 w/the LOB, though now we're getting into the weeds about how coverage is ran.
 

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Maybe those fans don't like to pay high prices to watch ****** football?

The prices for tickets will continue rise. If people hate spending the money on them, don't buy them, there are plenty of people willing to shell out $500+ for a Packer ticket.

I did have to laugh. The daughter of the regular season ticket holder, that sits right next to "my" seat (its my friends tickets), showed up to the game. In the last 10 years or more that I have been going, I have NEVER seen her or her mother. It is always someone that buys them in the secondary market and usually someone that had it on their bucket list to go to a Packer game. I asked the daughter of the ticket holder why she doesn't go to more games. She said, "I would love to, but my Mom makes a lot of money off these tickets, I'm only here because she doesn't want to lose her tickets." BTW.....her and her husband were 2 of the people that left after the 4th and 8 play.
 

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At a high level, DBs shouldn't be responsible for making tackles at the LOS all that often. Maybe a safety depending on any particular play. Most NFL defenses are single-gap defenses. The linemen often align in a gap and they are responsible for runs to that gap. The linebackers are filled in based on offensive and defensive alignment. An easy example, in a 4-3, you often have a one DT as a 1 technique, one in a 3. The 1, outside shoulder of the center, is considered to be in one A gap. The middle linebacker, Mike, is normally responsible for the other A gap. The 3 technique is aligned on the outside shoulder of the guard and is considered to be responsible for that B gap.

To stop the run against base offense, you're hoping your Mike or your Will can scrape fast enough to be able stop the run with only 7 men in the box. It does require the defense to play well because they have 8 people to account for: 5 linemen, 1 TE, 1 FB, and the ball carrier. This is why defenses will bring the SS into the box on obvious running down and distances: 1 man to 1 man against the run. And in turn, this is why quarterback runs work as well as they do--they break run blocking math. Of course the risk it getting the QB hurt, but its all a trade off.

Going further down the rabbit hole, every defense aspires to rushing 4 and dropping 7. The reality is you need to play games in order to win, but it helps to start with the basics.

In every offensive scheme, there are 5 eligible receivers (exception: if the quarterback is shotgun, he can also catch a pass, but normally there is trickery happening and a different eligible receiver is now throwing). To run Man-2, ie, man to man w/ safeties deep, both CBs and all three linebackers have a man. In almost all situations, 1WR = 1CB, leaving the linebackers to deal with the HB, FB, and TE.

Cover-2 or Tampa-2 requires all 7 to drop in zone. The safeties have deep halves, just like in Man-2, the corners have the flats, the linebackers have the medium under-zones, 1/3 each.

In cover-3, the FS and CBs each have a deep 3rd, the SS and the linebackers have the medium zones, 1/4 each.

Cover-4 has the FS, SS, and CBs each with a deep quarter (ergo the secondary name, quarters) and the linebackers have the medium zones, 1/3 each.

If you're following along, Cover-N tells you how many "safeties" the coverage has. And you can tell a lot about what is probably going to happen on any play by finding the safeties and then watching if/how the roll after the ball is snapped.

Cover-1, single high safety, is usually a man coverage and 1 extra rusher or a spy.

Cover-0 is straight man and you're rushing 6. Extremely high risk--if the offense can block it well enough, someone is going to get open. If can be as easy take snap, take one step, ball is out. The defense is hoping to disrupt the patterns and have that ball fall harmlessly to the turf, but if you have a player that can win off the line (think D. Adams) and a quarterback who can get the ball out on target and on time, the defense has lost before the ball is even snapped.

Regardless of the coverage being ran, the secondary can elect to press, play "regular", or play off. Cover-2 normally wants to press to help cover up the natural holes in the zones. Seattle happily pressed out of cover-3 w/the LOB, though now we're getting into the weeds about how coverage is ran.

Thank you. I am going to have to read that another 5 times, to absorb it all. :D

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The Packers added Micah Parsons and it sure looks like they're not a better team. That's hard to do. To match last year's win total, the Packers would need to go 6-3 the rest of the way. With games at Detroit, Minneapolis and Denver and tough home games against the Ravens, Eagles and Vikings that will be very unlikely. Given the knack for losing to bad teams, the chances of losing one or more to the Giants and Bears is high.
Granted as I've said before I think we have a tendency to play down to bad things...and also an ability to play up above and beyond good ones. So how the season will shake out is anyone's guess, but yeah, it's concerning. *On paper* at least, Carolina was one of the worst teams left on our schedule...

Remaining schedule: Eagles, Giants, Vikings (2), Lions, Bears (2), Broncos, Ravens

Including the Panthers for comparison's sake, current offensive EPA/play:

8. Eagles
9. Lions
10. Bears
14. Broncos
16. Giants
19. Ravens
23. Panthers
28. Vikings

and current defensive EPA/play:
4. Broncos
6. Lions
11. Vikings
16. Eagles
19. Bears
20. Panthers
25. Ravens
30. Giants

6-3 is certainly doable but it will be tough. We will probably drop (at least) one to a team that we "should" beat and probably win a game that many would expect us to lose. Who knows.

what is puzzling too is that in additions to Parsons and the defense, we have arguably improved offensively this year on a per game/per play basis. I'm not sure what that tells us - were we a bit lucky last season, or just unlucky this season? Hard for me to say...
 

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Our defense is incredibly better and Parsons is for sure a factor in that.

Defense is tied for the 6th fewest points given up on the year, 4th lowest yards against total, second best in yards/play, 6th best in passing yards given up, 5th best in rushing yards given up.
For comparison though last season we were:

6th in points allowed
5th in yards allowed
7th in yards per play
13th in passing yards allowed
7th in rush yards allowed

And in defensive EPA, last year we were:
4th in total defensive EPA/play (-0.066)
28th in pass defense success rate
4th in dropback EPA/play
9th in rush defense success rate
8th in rush EPA/play

Compared with this year:
15th in total defensive EPA/play (+0.012)
8th in pass defense success rate
14th in dropback EPA/play
20th in rush defense success rate
17th in rush EPA/play

In other words, thus far we have appreciably improved in passing defense, declined in rushing defense, a very slight improvement in production allowed, and a noticeable decline in defensive EPA allowed. I don't know if I would call that incredibly better just yet...
 
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