What surprised me on the Nixon pic - I think all of the CBs and Ss were on guys they weren't assigned to. That can certainly happen from inside the 10. Anyway the D played very well on that key down, preventing the Bears from scoring.
I think it was the only time in the game that Williams rolled left. The D was tired but still ready for anything.
On his post-game interview, Evan Williams admitted that he should have been covering the TE. Nixon recognized the open receiver and dropped back to cover the more immediate threat. Nixon made a smart football play.
I re-watched that decisive play several times after hearing that podcast and noticed the following:
- Colston Loveland #84 goes in motion from (offensive) left to right, causing Cooper, Williams, and McKinney to all shift towards the motion
- McKinney is responsible for covering the WR, Loveland, and stays with him
- Valentine stays put to cover Olamide Zaccheaus #14
- Quay Walker appears to have the responsibility of covering the RB, D'Andre Swift #4, from the LB position
- When Cooper shifts with the motion, he also appears to cover the RB but may have been the spy on Caleb Williams. It's hard to tell because of how he reacts after the snap
- Evan Williams is responsible for covering Cole Kmet #85, who is lined up tight with the left tackle
- Nixon is the farthest defender to the (offensive) right. He is lined up over WR DJ Moore #2
- There is no safety help because Evans is on Kmet and McKinney is on Loveland
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- When the ball is snapped, TE Loveland continues the motion to the right side of the endzone, taking McKinney out of the play
- WR Zaccheaus fails miserably at trying to block Engbare at the line, but Valentine stays on WR Zaccheaus to ensure he doesn't leak out
- Evan Williams gets caught up in traffic and mistakenly covers RB Swift instead of TE Kmet
- Cooper and Walker cover RB Swift as well, with Cooper maybe the spy on the QB. Cooper does turn towards the QB to deter a scramble
- Nixon, lined up on the 10yd line, mirrors WR Moore as he runs behind the line to the left. Moore gave Caleb Williams a second receiving target in addition to Swift.
*****THIS IS WHERE IT GETS GOOD*****
- As Nixon crosses mid-field, he sees Kmet cross in front of him. At this point, Kmet is wide open and Caleb Williams sees it. The QB has three receiving targets (Swift shallow, Moore should be in intermediate but slows down, and Kmet deep) plus the option to run for the 1st down.
- RB Swift is covered by three Packers, so the option is eliminated
- WR Moore doesn't try to block, doesn't try hard to get open, or do anything. He is a waste of a football player so the option is eliminated
- QB Williams had no chance of scrambling because he was 6yds behind the line of scrimmage with Cooper coming at him
- TE Kmet is the only option and he is wide open
- However, when Nixon sees TE Kmet cross in front of him he broke off his coverage to cover Kmet
- The QB inexplicably held the ball for a long second before floating it to the middle of the endzone. This gave Nixon just enough time to drop back 15yds for the INT. He dropped from the 10yd line to the middle of the endzone.
- Had the QB thrown the ball immediately when he saw Kmet, or even thrown it to the back of the endzone, Nixon likely would not have had the opportunity to pick off the pass.
That was a boneheaded mistake by Evan Williams, but an equally elite play by Nixon to see the wide-open player and make the smart decision to cover the biggest threat.