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Aaron Rodgers won't have as good of a season as he did last year
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<blockquote data-quote="TJV" data-source="post: 448460" data-attributes="member: 4300"><p>In the likely event Rodgers doesn’t duplicate those stellar stats from last year, I would “blame” it on a statistical concept called “reversion to the mean” (or “regression to the mean”).</p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Here’s Rodgers’ line from the 2011 regular season. He started 15 games:</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Passing: 343/504 for a 68.3% completion rate. 4,643 total yards passing for 9.2 yds/attempt average and a 122.5 QB rating. 45 TDs, 6 INTs.</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Rushing: 60 rushes for 257 yards for a 4.3yd average, 3 TDs. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Here are his stats for his four seasons as a starter. He has averaged 15.5 games/season over that time:</span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Passing: 336.5/513.5 for a 65.5% completion rate. 4,259 total yards passing for 8.3 yds/attempt average and a 105.2 QB rating. 33 TDs, 9 INTs. (I just averaged the passer rating for the four years.) </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Rushing: 59.5 rushes for 284 yards for a 4.8yd average, 4 TDs. </span></span></p><p> </p><p><span style="color: #000000"><span style="font-family: 'Tahoma'">Because 2008 dragged his mean stats as a starter down some and because he and the players surrounding him are more experienced in the offense or more in sync with him, I expect his reversion to the mean to exceed the numbers above. So if he completes 66-68% of his passes for over 4,300 yards for a QB rating of more than 105 and he throws for more than 35 TDs or so with 8-10 INTs, I’m just going to have to learn to live with that, even though it would fall short of last years’ numbers! </span></span></p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="TJV, post: 448460, member: 4300"] In the likely event Rodgers doesn’t duplicate those stellar stats from last year, I would “blame” it on a statistical concept called “reversion to the mean” (or “regression to the mean”). [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Here’s Rodgers’ line from the 2011 regular season. He started 15 games:[/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Passing: 343/504 for a 68.3% completion rate. 4,643 total yards passing for 9.2 yds/attempt average and a 122.5 QB rating. 45 TDs, 6 INTs.[/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Rushing: 60 rushes for 257 yards for a 4.3yd average, 3 TDs. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Here are his stats for his four seasons as a starter. He has averaged 15.5 games/season over that time:[/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Passing: 336.5/513.5 for a 65.5% completion rate. 4,259 total yards passing for 8.3 yds/attempt average and a 105.2 QB rating. 33 TDs, 9 INTs. (I just averaged the passer rating for the four years.) [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Rushing: 59.5 rushes for 284 yards for a 4.8yd average, 4 TDs. [/FONT][/COLOR] [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Tahoma]Because 2008 dragged his mean stats as a starter down some and because he and the players surrounding him are more experienced in the offense or more in sync with him, I expect his reversion to the mean to exceed the numbers above. So if he completes 66-68% of his passes for over 4,300 yards for a QB rating of more than 105 and he throws for more than 35 TDs or so with 8-10 INTs, I’m just going to have to learn to live with that, even though it would fall short of last years’ numbers! [/FONT][/COLOR] [/QUOTE]
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Aaron Rodgers won't have as good of a season as he did last year
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