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Aaron Rodgers: Mr. Irrelevant in fourth quarter

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by ivo610, Jul 16, 2012.

  1. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    That wide open Jennings play in OT against the cards still haunts me.
     
  2. Alex

    Alex Cheesehead

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    Could have been becuase our defense "couldn't stop a nose bleed" last year. I was a little bothered when Clay said in a post game interview, "When you have an offense this good it's ok to make some mistakes on defense." I hope they all don't seriously think that. Especially after looking back on last year.
     
  3. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Me too. That was a golden signature historical play right there for him to grab. To end a historical game.
    And he overfired (or Jennings couldn't find that extra gear to go get it).
    Then right afterwards, the historical gaffe to end the game.

    Now on a positive note to deflect the 4th quarter criticism of Rodgers:
    Tiger Woods has NEVER, not even once, won a major when he didn't already have the lead, or share of the lead, heading into the 4th quarter. Or 4th & final round in this case, as they call them in the game of golf.

    Every single one of Tiger's majors (I think 14), he's had the lead heading into Sunday's final rounds.
    Now that's a front-runner.
     
  4. weeds

    weeds Cheesehead

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    The stats are what the stats are and the writer certainly is entitled to his opinion. My feelings are that the writer stumbled across that particular set of statistics and decided to write a story that supports a belief that he held prior to actually sitting down at his keyboard.

    I'm not one to put a whole lot of stock in obscure numbers that are bent, twisted and shaped to support a presupposition because I deal with numbers and stats on a daily basis. I am proud to say that I can sandbag line-item budgeting with the best of 'em (I'll just keep saying that because it justifies my existence and because I keep saying it, it just HAS to be true).

    Seems as though Jack Vainisi always beats me to the punch, which is a good thing because he's a helluva lot more fluent than I, but I'd like to add that THIS particular gripe against Rodgers is not new. I recall vividly the '08 Carolina game where Rodgers couldn't bring the Pack back for a THIRD time in the fourth quarter -- and the Green Bay/Appleton and Milwaukee beat writers were going to town on him. I recall telling my son on the way home from the game almost exactly what was going to be in the morning papers.

    Rodgers is at the top of his position ... now starts the systematic disassembly of the player. They (mainstream media and now, the proverbial blogosphere) need something to write and by gawd, if it's on the internet, it just has to be accurate ... right?

    Incorporating last years' two losses as failed 4th quarter comeback opportunities is almost as ludicrous and it is laughable - in that in both games ... the Packers were defeated by teams that played better and were better prepared to play that day...and make no mistake, they were beat both times. They didn't lose...they were beat.

    In summation, my opinion is this: An article based on the writer's personal presupposition/observation with selective supporting stats doesn't make an idea correct. It only makes for an interesting "read" and good topic for discussion - which is always good.
     
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  5. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Numbers lie, stats can be very misleading, especially in the wrong or lack of context
     
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  6. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Tiger Woods, again, failed to make a 4th quarter rally today, and now has won a total of zero majors in his life when starting the 4th round not leading.

    But Ernie Els made a great comeback for the British Open win.
    Meanwhile Rodgers, and now Sterling Sharpe, just made birdies in Tahoe at the #AAC, the great celebrity golf tournament.
     
  7. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Well, they lied again today then because Rodgers had the ball in his hands TWO times in the 4th quarter needing to score to TIE, and he did not come thru either time. That is a fact.

    The fact is the first time it was 100% his fault with a Brian Brohm-like Int right to Navarro Bowman.
    The second time it was mostly the offensive line's fault, primarily Bulaga and then TJ Lang. Rodgers had no prayer with those 2 failing like they did on the final series.

    Rodgers had a nice drive until that point and might have led us to a score if not for Bulaga and Lang letting Ahmad Brooks get right in after Rodgers.

    Combined those 2, and we had another 1 in the "L" column of this particular study that they had showed us.
     
  8. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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  9. Jules

    Jules The Colts Fan

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    I think Aaron will someday have his big drive in the postseason to shut people up about this stuff.
     
  10. Croak

    Croak Terminally twisted.

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    But, but, how can anyone blame a "system Quarterback" for a lack of 4th quarter comebacks??? Wouldn't the blame rest on the "system" and not the QB? :whistling:
     
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  11. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Teams win, teams lose. Starr is mentioned by many as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, QBs of all time ONLY because his teams won 5 Championships. No. 4 is mentioned not because of Championships, but because of personal stats, which resulted in his teams winning one Championship. I'd like to see Rogers more on the Starr side of ranking than the fantasy side. Time will tell.
     
  12. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    All these negative points being brought up about the guy...Shheeesh....C'mon guys, it's not like we have Kevin Kolb as our starting QB. Cut the man some damn slack here.

    He is an MVP QB.
    He helped win us a superbowl
    He is an efficiant passer
    He set an all time record for QB rating
    He was voted #1 player in the NFL by his peers
    He is a generally nice guy, not some c0ck sucker like Brady
    He is generous by passing the ball to everyone, not bias like some QB's
    He takes blame for mistakes, does not pass the buck

    Stop trashing the guy and just BE GLAD HE IS ON OUR TEAM.
     
  13. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    I didnt see anyone trashing him, more or less just looking at the facts. The record in the 4th isnt great but hopefully should turn around.

    Manning has the most though and only has 1 ring...
     
  14. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Rodgers +1
     
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  15. IamAthimble

    IamAthimble Cheesehead

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    Yeah, let's just give attention to jealous, butthurt morons that can't stand Rodgers success and are grasping at straws trying to find criticism against him. He won us a Superbowl. Got us to 15-1 last year. He threw for 4 TD's yesterday.

    Seriously, shutup already. He's the most talented QB in the league, and will keep GB in contention for years to come. I'm so sick of these people that are obviously so desperate to find something wrong with Rodgers that they come up with these pathetic little critiques. Stuff it, people.
     
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  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I find it amusing myself. The 4th. quarter comeback stat is a dubious proposition, to be sure. The data samples are small to begin with, and it helps to be trailing by a small margin in the 4th. quarter with regularity, which is obviously not the objective. The king of FQCs in recent years is Matt Ryan (another one yesterday), and he has not won squat yet. FQCs are dramatic, they're good for business, good for the highlight reels, and give the analysts something to chatter about.
     
  17. peteralan71

    peteralan71 Cheesehead

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    I thought back to this stupid article immediately. I also thought back to it when the Fail Mary call gave him another -1 instead of +1.
     
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  18. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Bringing this back as it was a 4th q comeback
     
  19. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    We are so lucky to have AR.
     
  20. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Actually, DET was Rodgers' 4th. comeback in the 4th. quarter this season. Unfortunately, we did not hold that lead in 2 of them.

    SEA: 16 plays, 82 yards, 1 yd. TD run by Benson with 8:44 left on clock
    NO: 7 plays, 57 yards, 11 yd. TD pass to Nelson with 7:00 left on clock
    IND: 2 plays, 49 yards, 8 yd. TD pass to Jones with 4:30 left on clock
    DET: 6 plays, 83 yards, 22 yd. TD pass to Cobb with 1:55 left on clock

    This microcosm illustrates the several meaningful flaws in the 4th. quarter comeback WIN stat:

    1. Opportunity: In order to rack up a lot of 4th. quarter comeback wins, you need to be trailing in the 4th. quarter with some regularity. This is clearly not the objective of the first 3+ quarters of play. Further, the deficit needs to be manageable...that deficit going into the 4th. needs to be narrow on a regular basis to rack up those wins.

    Rodgers has had opportunities this season. Last season the Pack held the lead going into the 4th. in all 15 of Rodgers' starts. So, you need to have a good enough team to keep you close (2012 Packers), but no so explosive as to consistently hold the lead into the 4th. (2011 Packers).

    2. QB is not the only player on the field: In the IND comeback drive, 41 of those yards came on Green's scamper. You have to give Rodgers credit for getting the ball in the end zone, but it's not quite the same thing as a sustained passing drive.

    3. QB does not Play D: IND goes 13 plays, 81 yards to take back the lead with 0:34 left on the clock. This fact, oddly, goes underappreciated. Having a clutch D that holds late leads gets you the W.

    4. Sh*t Happens, to the Good: NO's Hartley misses a 48 yd. FG to take back the lead with 2:49 left on the clock.

    5. Sh*t Happens, to the Bad: Seattle.

    In the final analysis, the sample size is too small and the circumstances of each game having enough peculiarities to render the bare stats meaningless. The only way to make sense of this stat is to look at each game individually and establish a QB point system to allocate QB responsibility for wins and losses in those circumstances. That would be so highly subjective as to have little credibility, and game tape review so time consuming as to render it nearly impossible.

    QB Rating, on the other hand, takes in 1000's of plays over a career for a meaningful sample size, and has a demonstrated high correlation to winning.

    This is not to say leading a 4th. quarter winning drive is meaningless; only that career stats measuring this are meaningless.

    Nobody is going to remember Matt Ryan's gaudy comeback stats over the last few seasons since it did not buy a single playoff win. Everybody remembers "The Catch".

    And which would you rather have...a 19 game winning streak without trailing in the 4th. quarter or Ryan's comeback stats?
     
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  21. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    The 4th quarter comeback stat is largely one of the biggest jokes in all of sports stats. To me it's relatively meaningless. So, what, Eli Manning is somehow better than Rodgers because he's led more 4th quarter comebacks? He doesn't get dinged for playing badly the first three quarters? Rodgers doesn't get credit for not having to lead a 4th quarter comeback most of the time? And how about all of the 2nd and 3rd quarter comeback victories Rodgers' has led? No credit for that either?

    Given a choice, I'll take winning in the 2nd and 3rd quarter over having to come from behind in the 4th to get the win.
     
  22. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    I did some surfing prior to the Lions game and I saw it in several posts that Stafford had the best 4th quarter QB rating. Lions fans were hanging their hats on that. I get it but it sure doesn't mean much does it?
    Stats are nice to look at but they sure as heck aren't useful for forecasting future play. If they were - everybody with a calculator would win in Vegas.
    I'll take the best quarterback rating in the history of the league over a 4th quarter rating all day.
    That's a joke of course. Would anybody take any other QB in the NFL over this Rodgers?
    It's 60 minutes of game time. you have to produce in all of them to be the best.
     
  23. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    In my opinion, having a bunch of 4th qtr comebacks is not a good stat at all. It means that for the first 3 qtrs you couldn't get it done well enough to have a lead going into the 4th. While I know sometimes sh!t happens outside of the QB's control and you have to try to play catch up, but a stat like Eli has that says he is the king of 4th qtr comebacks is just like the stat for Favre having the most INT's, neither are a good stat....to me that is.
     
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  24. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    OK...I found it. Rodgers now has five games this season with a 4th. quarter drive that took the lead; the D failed to hold the lead in two of them. I'll update the list for future reference:

    DET: 7 plays, 41 yards., 14 yard TD run by Harris with 10:45 left on the clock.
     
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  25. Grave

    Grave Cheesehead

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    Pretty stoooooopid article. Obviously AR needs to throw more picks in the early part of games so he can qualify for more comebacks. And then he must play more safety to defend our lead.
     

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