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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 495968"><p>I think you've made a poor assumption that the salary cap will double again in the next 12 years. The NFL has exploited nearly all of the TV opportunities and big seat price increases the market can bear. There are not a lot of unexploited revenue sources left. I think we can also expect going forward an increasing portion of the player pie going to pension and benefits as we saw in this last CBA. If the league has to start paying extended disability benefits for brain trauma, the entire business model could be compromised.</p><p> </p><p>Goodell's latest hobby horse is how to get people to continue to pay for ever more expensive seats when they can watch at home in high def on big screens. His current efforts focus on finding ways to build unique "content" into the stadium experience. His most recent initiative is requiring all teams to broadcast the locker room to the stadium score board; this feed will be stadium only. No, that's not a joke. Moves like this do not paint a picture of an enterprise with an unlimited revenue growth horizon.</p><p> </p><p>Their best idea for another revenue jump is the 18 game schedule...but that should continue to be a non-starter with the union. International expansion has gone nowhere; maybe they should try flag football in Europe. Legalized on-line gambling might spark another leg up in interest, but the negative byproducts may be unreconcilable.</p><p> </p><p>There should be a bump in salary cap in 2015 with the new TV contracts, at least that's what we're led to believe, but there's no indication the NFL's revenue "golden age" of the last 2 decades can continue at the same pace. ESPN is loaded up to the gills now with NFL coverage; the NFL Network is in place now with 24/7 coverage; the available days of the week that make sense for broadcast are mostly saturated. At the same time, 1/3 of the teams are having trouble selling out from time to time...for a few it's a weekly struggle.</p><p> </p><p>Assuming your 10 year / $258 mil is fairly clean without a lot of gimmicks and outs, I hope Rodgers is not asking for that kind of deal because he shouldn't get it, and he won't get it. The only way anything like those numbers works is if it has gimmick $30 mil+ base salaries in the out years, or some like back load mechanism, whereby that money will never be paid but looks pretty on paper.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 495968"] I think you've made a poor assumption that the salary cap will double again in the next 12 years. The NFL has exploited nearly all of the TV opportunities and big seat price increases the market can bear. There are not a lot of unexploited revenue sources left. I think we can also expect going forward an increasing portion of the player pie going to pension and benefits as we saw in this last CBA. If the league has to start paying extended disability benefits for brain trauma, the entire business model could be compromised. Goodell's latest hobby horse is how to get people to continue to pay for ever more expensive seats when they can watch at home in high def on big screens. His current efforts focus on finding ways to build unique "content" into the stadium experience. His most recent initiative is requiring all teams to broadcast the locker room to the stadium score board; this feed will be stadium only. No, that's not a joke. Moves like this do not paint a picture of an enterprise with an unlimited revenue growth horizon. Their best idea for another revenue jump is the 18 game schedule...but that should continue to be a non-starter with the union. International expansion has gone nowhere; maybe they should try flag football in Europe. Legalized on-line gambling might spark another leg up in interest, but the negative byproducts may be unreconcilable. There should be a bump in salary cap in 2015 with the new TV contracts, at least that's what we're led to believe, but there's no indication the NFL's revenue "golden age" of the last 2 decades can continue at the same pace. ESPN is loaded up to the gills now with NFL coverage; the NFL Network is in place now with 24/7 coverage; the available days of the week that make sense for broadcast are mostly saturated. At the same time, 1/3 of the teams are having trouble selling out from time to time...for a few it's a weekly struggle. Assuming your 10 year / $258 mil is fairly clean without a lot of gimmicks and outs, I hope Rodgers is not asking for that kind of deal because he shouldn't get it, and he won't get it. The only way anything like those numbers works is if it has gimmick $30 mil+ base salaries in the out years, or some like back load mechanism, whereby that money will never be paid but looks pretty on paper. [/QUOTE]
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