AADP sig?

[Zero2Cool]

Ted Thompson is lying when he says he draft based on 'best pick available'. History shows he drafts based on the 'best player available' at the BIGGEST POSITION OF NEED.

I'm sure you've elaborated on this already so could you link me to the post that supports the statement? (I'm trying to see if I can figure out the direction our draft will go, any opinion or thought can help lol)

 

[longtimefan]

Could it just be that AJ was the best player rated on their board at the time, and it also happened to be one of the greatest needs at the time as well?

I would say they drafted based on NEED more so then what the bpa was when they picked up Rodgers..( this is based on my opinion, they figured Brett was done after the 2005 season)

 

[all about da packers]

Well let me clarify the sig isn't meant to state my hate of TT, rather it came about after reading an article someone posted (I think it was Heather) in which Ted said something like we'll draft the best player available, even if it happens to be an OL at 16 because I've done that before.

I think history provides a different picture:

05 draft (You can argue either way for Rodgers, so I won't include him in my analysis):
- 2nd round pick: Nick Collins (Sharper released, we have a need at safety - other players available included OT Khalif Barnes and CB Darrent Williams)
- 2nd round pick: Terrance Murphy (Walker saga was in full effect, complete with him threatening to hold out so we effectively have only Ferrgie and Driver as reliable targets - other players available included CB Dan McFadden and RB Frank Gore)
- 4th round pick: Marviel Underwood (Roman is our returning SS, and he had been terrible at best the season before)

In 05, we lost Rivera and Whale. Our first OL picked was in the 7th round. I find it hard to believe that an OL was the best player available when we picked only in the 7th round. I think it's more to do with Ted thinking he had solved the problem with a couple of 'under the radar' signings at O-line.


06 draft:
- 1st round: AJ Hawk (Barnett is returning, along with an injured Poppinga that has no definitive date of return, and Taylor is added to the mix. Since Poppinga is injured, we only have two starting LBs - and I'm sure you can talk about other players such as Vernon Davis that could have been had)
- 2nd round: Greg Jennings AND Daryn Colledge(T-Murph and Walker gone no replacements, and our G play was a disaster)
- 3rd round: Jason Spitz (our G play was a disaster, consequently we don't sign any G in the off-season)


Now perhaps I should clarify that I don't mean TT drafts 'best player available' based on need in every round, but I think in the early rounds (day 1) he usually targets the positions that we have a biggest need at.

05 - we didn't sign anyone to replace Sharper, protect ourselves against Walker sitting out for a certain time period, or anyone to compete with the incumbent (yet terrible) Mark Roman.

06 - we sign 1 player to solve needs at 2 positions (given the unknown timeline of Popp's return). We don't sign any WR to fill a gap for us, nor do we sign any Guards this time around knowing that Klemm isn't the answer, and we have a new scheme that requires different types of guards. We draft at these positions on day 1.


I just think when TT says things like "I'll take an OT at 16 if he's the best player available", the journalist should comment on how that is unlikely given his history.

Going by the above, he'll draft RB and TE on the first day for sure because he didn't sign anyone to fill those needs. I don't think that is wrong, but I do think people (especially TT) constantly seeming to suggest that he always draft the best player available regardless of position is a stretch.

 

[vikesrule]

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[Zero2Cool]

Neat, thanks for the in depth response.

 

[Greg C.]

So the signature should say "best player available," not "best pick available." Anyway, what Thompson says is no different than what every other GM says. They have to pretend they will take the best player available, because that will give them more value for the pick if they decide to trade down. They don't want other GM's to feel too secure in knowing that they will pass up certain players because it is not their area of need.

 

[cheesey]

I personally don't see it as "lying", i see it more as protecting yourself by not giving out important info that might mess up your draft. It's better then him saying to whoever is asking "It's none of your business what i'm gonna do!"

 

[Lare]

I'm guessing most GM's, TT included, take the best player available far less often than they'd like us to believe. In this day and age there's just too much pressure to succeed to take players that don't produce for several years because they have a better player ahead of them.

Case in point, Aaron Rodgers. For all the millions of dollars he's earning without producing anything on the playing field, it's possible he won't be a starter until after TT is gone. If that's the case, I'd bet TT would like to have that draft pick back and get somebody that would have contributed to the team's success while he was here.

 

[OregonPackFan]

Why all this polarizing, a GM weighs in both the team needs and the players abillities and then picks the player he thinks is the best pick.

 

[Zero2Cool]

Why all this polarizing, a GM weighs in both the team needs and the players abillities and then picks the player he thinks is the best pick.

NO! A GM reads forums that are pertaining to the franchise he works for and uses the advice of the posters to make his picks!!

 

[all about da packers]

I agree with Greg, Lare, and cheesey, I don't think what TT is doing in this regard is wrong; I get extremely annoyed when journalists covering the Packers write full blown articles building up the notion that we'll take the best player available without really doing a bit of research to see if the notion is really true or not.

I'd seriously be ticked off if TT told us an a tell-all interview "I plan to take X in the first round, or otherwise Y. If there gone, we'll be in **** because I intended to upgrade those positions early in the draft and focus on other areas later on..."

I'm sure a lot of us would be wondering how on earth TT got the job in the first place.

 

[all about da packers]

NO! A GM reads forums that are pertaining to the franchise he works for and uses the advice of the posters to make his picks!!

:lol:

I gotta admit though, the thought that TT decided to take 66's advice and fire Sherman seems very troubling to me. :|

 

[warhawk]

Is there going to be someone sitting there so good by the 16th pick that selecting say Meachem or Lynch would be stupid? I doubt it but if there is that guy out there I wouldn't doubt that TT would take him over a NEED positon pick. Blowing the theory that need prevails.

The reason "best player available" and "need" match up so often is simply because it can. It's all perception early on and draft picks can hit or miss whether they are high or low.

There is justification for at least fifty or sixty guys that the Pack can select in the first two rounds. Might as well get what you need. More often than not the GM will have several options with any pick at hand. VERY seldom will there be a player sitting there that is obviously and, without reservation, better than any other player on the board.

 

[cheesey]

Journalists always want to be the one with the "scoop". So if they don't get one, they make it up. Then, if they end up guessing right, then they crow about it.

 

[CaliforniaCheez]

I think AADP's first post in the thread gives the counter argument to his quotation that Zero2Cool quoted.

Everyone is entitled to his opinion no matter how wrong it is. We can provide information to persuade the person to change the opinion but the AADP quote can remain until he realizes that his opinion is not the consensus opinion.

 

[Zero2Cool]

I think AADP's first post in the thread gives the counter argument to his quotation that Zero2Cool quoted.

Everyone is entitled to his opinion no matter how wrong it is. We can provide information to persuade the person to change the opinion but the AADP quote can remain until he realizes that his opinion is not the consensus opinion.

The tiny problem I have with it, is hes stating things he doesnt know. I don't mean that as an insult, I don't know either. But we don't know how each player was ranked on his board. He may very well be picking the best player available and we just piece it as need since we have so many. Kind of like that whole numbers thing.
Ever notice how whenever something massively bad happens people start flinging numbers around as if we should have known it was going to happen because this plus this minus this divided by this carry this equals this, therefore we should have known?

I think we do draft the guy who Ted feels is the best player available also mixes into the equation that the player could be taken later and takes someone he feels is a major talent, but thinks someone else will take him if he doesnt.

Kind of like when the Ravens called the Packers an said congrats on Nick Collins because they were going to pick him on their next pick.

 

[all about da packers]

The tiny problem I have with it, is hes stating things he doesnt know. I don't mean that as an insult, I don't know either. But we don't know how each player was ranked on his board. He may very well be picking the best player available and we just piece it as need since we have so many. Kind of like that whole numbers thing.

I agree with you there. I mean I'm taking the view that TT's lack of signings at positions we of need in the past to mean that he targets players at specific needs, when the exact opposite can also account for that: TT identifies the BPA, and then going by the positions of the BPA, he doesn't try to fill it through Free Agency.

I'd say most of the stuff on forums is opinion, and little of the stuff can be agreed upon as fact. I certainly think this way, which can be right or wrong. I just happened to be ticked off with the constant parading of "TT will choose BPA" in the media without a decent effort to take a look at the other side, when I decided to change my sig. The whole "TT blames impotency on rap music thing" had run its course.