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A Thought on QB Development
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<blockquote data-quote="ARPackFan" data-source="post: 896196" data-attributes="member: 9355"><p>I fundamentally agree with what you are saying but the flaw in your premise is that you are taking the #1 pick at that position against the field even if is just the the other 1st round QBs. The process of evaluating collage talent that is going to translate into the NFL is performed by people that in many instance buy into the same hype/emotions surrounding the player as the fan base. Trevor Lawrence is viewed as the upcoming #1 pick but is taking him the right move? If the Jaguars trade down to get more picks and instead draft Trey Lance (QB - N. Dakota State) in addition to another player or two in the first two rounds is that the smart play? The fan base and maybe even the owner would be upset and don't you think the people making this choice realize this? The upside of this move is that the team has increased their odds of finding a great player even if is not the QB. I agree that the evaluation process is flawed in that it includes both subjective (opinion) and objective (fact based) evidence and in many instance I think many GMs/Scouting Staffs make one to protect their career. </p><p></p><p></p><p>Having the #1 draft pick in most cases does not work out. Take a look at the list below of #1 picks since 1980 and tell me how many of them where one of the best at their position in the NFL.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.theringer.com/2020/4/16/21222905/nfl-draft-20-years-number-1-draft-picks-joe-burrow" target="_blank">https://www.theringer.com/2020/4/16/21222905/nfl-draft-20-years-number-1-draft-picks-joe-burrow</a></p><p></p><p>2020: Joe Burrow</p><p>2019: Kyler Murray</p><p>2018: Baker Mayfield</p><p>2017: Myles Garrett</p><p>2016: Jared Goff</p><p>2015: Jameis Winston</p><p>2014: Jadeveon Clowney</p><p>2013: Eric Fisher</p><p>2012: Andrew Luck</p><p>2011: Cam Newton</p><p>2010: Sam Bradford</p><p>2009: Matthew Stafford</p><p>2008: Jake Long</p><p>2007: JaMarcus Russell</p><p>2006: Mario Williams</p><p>2005: Alex Smith</p><p>2004: Eli Manning</p><p>2003: Carson Palmer</p><p>2002: David Carr</p><p>2001: Michael Vick</p><p>2000: Courtney Brown</p><p>1999: Tim Couch</p><p>1998: Peyton Manning</p><p>1997: Orlando Pace</p><p>1996: Keyshawn Johnson</p><p>1995: Ki-Jana Carter</p><p>1994: Dan Wilkinson</p><p>1993: Drew Bledsoe</p><p>1992: Steve Emtman</p><p>1991: Russell Maryland</p><p>1990: Jeff George</p><p>1989: Troy Aikman</p><p>1988: Aundray Bruce</p><p>1987: Vinny Testaverde</p><p>1986: Bo Jackson</p><p>1985: Bruce Smith</p><p>1984: Irving Fryar</p><p>1983: John Elway</p><p>1982: Kenneth Sims</p><p>1981: George Rogers</p><p>1980: Billy Sims</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="ARPackFan, post: 896196, member: 9355"] I fundamentally agree with what you are saying but the flaw in your premise is that you are taking the #1 pick at that position against the field even if is just the the other 1st round QBs. The process of evaluating collage talent that is going to translate into the NFL is performed by people that in many instance buy into the same hype/emotions surrounding the player as the fan base. Trevor Lawrence is viewed as the upcoming #1 pick but is taking him the right move? If the Jaguars trade down to get more picks and instead draft Trey Lance (QB - N. Dakota State) in addition to another player or two in the first two rounds is that the smart play? The fan base and maybe even the owner would be upset and don't you think the people making this choice realize this? The upside of this move is that the team has increased their odds of finding a great player even if is not the QB. I agree that the evaluation process is flawed in that it includes both subjective (opinion) and objective (fact based) evidence and in many instance I think many GMs/Scouting Staffs make one to protect their career. Having the #1 draft pick in most cases does not work out. Take a look at the list below of #1 picks since 1980 and tell me how many of them where one of the best at their position in the NFL. [URL]https://www.theringer.com/2020/4/16/21222905/nfl-draft-20-years-number-1-draft-picks-joe-burrow[/URL] 2020: Joe Burrow 2019: Kyler Murray 2018: Baker Mayfield 2017: Myles Garrett 2016: Jared Goff 2015: Jameis Winston 2014: Jadeveon Clowney 2013: Eric Fisher 2012: Andrew Luck 2011: Cam Newton 2010: Sam Bradford 2009: Matthew Stafford 2008: Jake Long 2007: JaMarcus Russell 2006: Mario Williams 2005: Alex Smith 2004: Eli Manning 2003: Carson Palmer 2002: David Carr 2001: Michael Vick 2000: Courtney Brown 1999: Tim Couch 1998: Peyton Manning 1997: Orlando Pace 1996: Keyshawn Johnson 1995: Ki-Jana Carter 1994: Dan Wilkinson 1993: Drew Bledsoe 1992: Steve Emtman 1991: Russell Maryland 1990: Jeff George 1989: Troy Aikman 1988: Aundray Bruce 1987: Vinny Testaverde 1986: Bo Jackson 1985: Bruce Smith 1984: Irving Fryar 1983: John Elway 1982: Kenneth Sims 1981: George Rogers 1980: Billy Sims [/QUOTE]
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