A tale of two NFC North Cities

[Packerlifer]

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2...ngs-gm-rick-spielmans-trade-up-2016-nfl-draft

 

[El Guapo]

An interesting article. Spielman has been uncanny in hitting on those 1st rounders that he's traded up to land. Trading back in 2012 to get Harrison Smith, in 2013 for Xavier Rhodes, and in 2014 for Teddy Bridgewater. In 2013 he did reach for Cordarelle Patterson, who has been a giant bust.

The upside is obviously huge if you hit on one of the guys, but statistically you are more likely to miss. Looking at the 2012-14 drafts, only 1/4 of the first round picks ever made a Pro Bowl so 75% of first rounders have been busts for their teams:
2012 - 10 of 32 (both Viking picks made PB: M. Kalil, H. Smith)
2013 - 9 of 32 (1 of 3 Viking picks made PB: C. Patterson)
2014 - 8 of 32 (both Viking picks made PB: A. Barr, T. Bridgewater)

 

[AmishMafia]

The upside is obviously huge if you hit on one of the guys, but statistically you are more likely to miss. Looking at the 2012-14 drafts, only 1/4 of the first round picks ever made a Pro Bowl so 75% of first rounders have been busts for their teams:
2012 - 10 of 32 (both Viking picks made PB: M. Kalil, H. Smith)
2013 - 9 of 32 (1 of 3 Viking picks made PB: C. Patterson)
2014 - 8 of 32 (both Viking picks made PB: A. Barr, T. Bridgewater)

Certainly you cant be saying that a player picked is a bust if he doesn't make the pro bowl in his rookie year?

 

[El Guapo]

Nope, never said that.

 

[jrock645]

Minnesota has taken a completely different approach to rebuilding that team than GB has gone about. Only question is if it's sustainable. Can they keep doing it?

Either way, despite them being a division rival, the staff and team they've put together I respect a lot, unlike the rest of the division. That FO has done one heck of a job in hiring an under the radar HC and making some aggressive draft decisions.

 

[bigbubbatd]

An interesting article. Spielman has been uncanny in hitting on those 1st rounders that he's traded up to land. Trading back in 2012 to get Harrison Smith, in 2013 for Xavier Rhodes, and in 2014 for Teddy Bridgewater. In 2013 he did reach for Cordarelle Patterson, who has been a giant bust.

The upside is obviously huge if you hit on one of the guys, but statistically you are more likely to miss. Looking at the 2012-14 drafts, only 1/4 of the first round picks ever made a Pro Bowl so 75% of first rounders have been busts for their teams:
2012 - 10 of 32 (both Viking picks made PB: M. Kalil, H. Smith)
2013 - 9 of 32 (1 of 3 Viking picks made PB: C. Patterson)
2014 - 8 of 32 (both Viking picks made PB: A. Barr, T. Bridgewater)

Bridgewater making the pro bowl was a joke. Spielman hit on Smith for sure. Rhodes has been up and down. Patterson is a huge bust and Bridgewater isn't very good in my opinion. Not sure what he has shown in two years to really make him a hit. Barr looks like a great pick aND kendricks looks solid too. Spielman has done well for sure. He is the opposite of trying. He is great at drafting defensive players but has struggled on offense.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Either way, despite them being a division rival, the staff and team they've put together I respect a lot, unlike the rest of the division. That FO has done one heck of a job in hiring an under the radar HC and making some aggressive draft decisions.

There´s no doubt the Vikings defense is a pretty good one featuring elite players in Linval Joseph, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith. The offense is mediocre at best. With Peterson getting up their in age and their passing game struggling the overall talent level on this team is way overrated. I fully expect the Packers to win the division in 2016 once again.

 

[Poppa San]

So they did it one year. Big deal. Let's see them #1 or #2 in the division for half a dozen years and I'll reconsider.

 

[El Guapo]

Nobody has proclaimed them perennial champs, so cool your engines.

I will say though, Bridgewater is better than his stats. I've watched a lot of him due to being here in Minnesota. His biggest problem is that the front office has neglected the offensive line and has never come close to finding a #1 receiver. At best, Bridgewater has had a bunch of #2 and #3 grade receivers while he's running for his life from pass rushers. So he ***** and dunks to avoid pressure. He has the ability may show it if Alex Boone and Andre Smith live up to the billing, and they get a solid WR in the draft. Lots of ifs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I will say though, Bridgewater is better than his stats. I've watched a lot of him due to being here in Minnesota. His biggest problem is that the front office has neglected the offensive line and has never come close to finding a #1 receiver. At best, Bridgewater has had a bunch of #2 and #3 grade receivers while he's running for his life from pass rushers. So he ***** and dunks to avoid pressure. He has the ability may show it if Alex Boone and Andre Smith live up to the billing, and they get a solid WR in the draft. Lots of ifs.

Disagree on Bridgewater. While I agree that the offensive line and receivers have lacked talent he played in a **** and dunk offense at Louisville as well and struggles mightily when throwing the ball downfield. The Vikings offense would be even worse if not having the best running back in the league.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Nobody has proclaimed them perennial champs, so cool your engines.

I will say though, Bridgewater is better than his stats. I've watched a lot of him due to being here in Minnesota. His biggest problem is that the front office has neglected the offensive line and has never come close to finding a #1 receiver. At best, Bridgewater has had a bunch of #2 and #3 grade receivers while he's running for his life from pass rushers. So he ***** and dunks to avoid pressure. He has the ability may show it if Alex Boone and Andre Smith live up to the billing, and they get a solid WR in the draft. Lots of ifs.

Not sure how you can watch Bridgewater and not put significant blame on his weak arm for his struggles. Maybe he hasn't hadone a number 1 but he has had the best running back in football so he is facing 8 in the box all the time. Give him a number 1 but take AP away and he is still going to struggle.

 

[El Guapo]

Was their offense significantly worse in 2014 when they didn't have AP?

 

[bigbubbatd]

Was their offense significantly worse in 2014 when they didn't have AP?

Well it wasn't good either year but last year seemed better. They have a good offensive coordinator but very little production.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Was their offense significantly worse in 2014 when they didn't have AP?

Well, they scored 40 points more last season than they did without Peterson in 2014. I don't know if that qualifies for a significant improvement but it's pretty obvious their passing game struggled as they had the NFL's rushing champion but only finished 16th in points scored.

 

[JBlood]

Last season Minnesota's offensive line ranked 10th in run blocking and 29th in pass blocking by DVOA and Zimmer fired the offensive line coach. The Packers' offensive line was 25th in run blocking and 23rd in pass blocking--giving up 47 sacks to Minnesota's 45; and McCarthy sticks with Campen for the 11th year in a row. It's clear he feels it's up to Rogers to overcome poor offensive line play year after year after year. Curious.

 

[mradtke66]

Last season Minnesota's offensive line ranked 10th in run blocking and 29th in pass blocking by DVOA and Zimmer fired the offensive line coach. The Packers' offensive line was 25th in run blocking and 23rd in pass blocking--giving up 47 sacks to Minnesota's 45; and McCarthy sticks with Campen for the 11th year in a row. It's clear he feels it's up to Rogers to overcome poor offensive line play year after year after year. Curious.

Problem there is just how broken up we were across the line last year. How many guys missed games? I seem to recall a game when we had 4 (!) backups playing on our line.

I'm having trouble finding the stats, but I seem to recall that the 3 games Bhak missed due to injury resulted in 2x the sacks per game vs. the games he did play.

PFF puts the Packers line at 4th best in 2014. FO puts them at 8th in run, 13th in pass protection in 2014 with the same guys.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Problem there is just how broken up we were across the line last year. How many guys missed games? I seem to recall a game when we had 4 (!) backups playing on our line.

I'm having trouble finding the stats, but I seem to recall that the 3 games Bhak missed due to injury resulted in 2x the sacks per game vs. the games he did play.

PFF puts the Packers line at 4th best in 2014. FO puts them at 8th in run, 13th in pass protection in 2014 with the same guys.

Surprisingly PFF ranked the Packers offensive line as the seventh best in the league in 2015 (5th in pass protection, 17th in run blocking, 24th in penalties). Here´s their reasoning behind it:

It almost feels odd that Green Bay would rank so high, given some of the struggles they had. But spearheaded by one of the best interiors in the league, they still did a remarkably good job. Of course, the problems at tackle when David Bakhtiari went down can’t be ignored, and it prevented a good line finishing higher.

It´s true the Packers gave up way more sacks with Bakhtiari out (15 in three games for an average of 5) compared to 34 of the 15 games he played in (2.27 average)

 

[El Guapo]

Last season Minnesota's offensive line ranked 10th in run blocking and 29th in pass blocking by DVOA and Zimmer fired the offensive line coach. The Packers' offensive line was 25th in run blocking and 23rd in pass blocking--giving up 47 sacks to Minnesota's 45; and McCarthy sticks with Campen for the 11th year in a row. It's clear he feels it's up to Rogers to overcome poor offensive line play year after year after year. Curious.

The Vikings' offensive line has stunk for years. Starting a rookie at right tackle all season didn't help. Their offensive line is the root cause for many of the Vikings' problems, with or without AP.

The Packers had one of the best o-lines in 2014 and injuries destroyed it in 2015....and for JBlood that's the reason to fire the coach.

 

[JBlood]

The Packers had one of the best o-lines in 2014 and injuries destroyed it in 2015....and for JBlood that's the reason to fire the coach.

I would have replaced Campen about 5 years ago. That's right: the Championship year. That line ranked 23rd in run blocking, 21st in pass blocking. I suspect it was Philbin that turned around the o line at the end of 2010, not Campen. Campen's lines have been consistently poor. Final DVOA rankings on the 2015 offensive line has our Packers at no. 25th in run blocking; 23rd in pass blocking. Worse than Campen's previous 8 lines that have averaged 17 in run blocking and 19 in pass blocking. That "one of the best" o lines in 2014 ranked 8th in run blocking; 13th in pass blocking. So it was one of Campen's best, but hardly elite in the NFL. Meanwhile Rogers gets another year older. Zimmer won't stand for it; MM seems just fine with it. I'm tired of it.

 

[JBlood]

PFF puts the Packers line at 4th best in 2014. FO puts them at 8th in run, 13th in pass protection in 2014 with the same guys.

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
I believe FO is the only site that uses DVOA, which I imagine accounts for the differences among stat sites.

 

[mradtke66]

DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
I believe FO is the only site that uses DVOA, which I imagine accounts for the differences among stat sites.

My point was not that PFF and FO disagree, but rather that both had the 2014 line graded significantly higher than 2015. With the same players.

 

[bigbubbatd]

It is safe to assume our line also loses a little in the pass blocking ranking because Rodgers is willing at extending plays. At times that will result in him being hit, hurried, or sacked. Do these stats look at that

 

[JBlood]

our line also loses a little in the pass blocking ranking because Rodgers is willing at extending plays.

Good one. Rogers "extends plays" because he's under pressure about a nanosecond after getting the ball.

 

[Mondio]

I think for every hit or sack Rodgers has taken over the years for "holding the ball too long" he's avoided 5 others because of his ability to move. Without even considering stats, I think Rodgers has consistently made this line look better than they've played. For a half or slightly better if a year 2 seasons ago this line looked really pretty good. Outside of that, they'd have looked much worse with anybody else under center imo

 

[bigbubbatd]

I am about as big of Rodgers fan as there is but there is no doubt he does should some blame for sack numbers. Although last year I won have put more blame on the slowest wrs to ever play together. The amount of time he had to wait for those guys to get separation was insane.