tynimiller
Cheesehead
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- May 2, 2012
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So last year slowly but surely it seemed Stokes had a chance to reach us, but it surely didn't start out with that that....then Newsome just kept measuring incredibly well. Draft day came and a rush and swirl of motions happened snagging three QBs early and not to mention three skill positions following (Pitts, Chase, Waddle)...this caused a shift some and is it unfolded it looked more and more likely Newsome OR Stokes was going to fall to us. The rest is history and Stokes is a Packer.
So who are 5 prospects I could see something similar happening and slipping to us that IMO shouldn't...of course this cannot include the surefire top guys like Hutchinson or say Ekwonu....but who is arguably that "surefire" Top 20 guy(s) that should they slip you couldn't blame Gute for drafting them - even if they don't address a glaring need:
In no specific order...
Trent McDuffie - Cornerback - Washington - 5'11' 195lbs
Cornerback is a position of immense depletion (Jaire, Stokes, SJC and Ento is whats on the shelf) BUT our top two spots are strong, and if Rasul is signed before the draft this pick would make even less sense BUT as described in the above, this is a guy that shouldn't make it to us HOWEVER, should more QBs than many think warrant it get picked above us and a small run happens on WRs or even the limited PREMIERE defensive lineman shift things a bit McDuffie is that Top 5 CB that could drop like Stokes did. People would be quite upset if this would play out (IF Rasul is signed) BUT at the same time we know how immensely important DBs are in this passing league and we would instantly IMO have a candidate for the best cornerback room in the entire league.
George Karlaftis - DE/DL/EDGE - Purdue - 6'4' 275lbs
Karlaftis to many is the #3 "edge" guy behind just Kayvon and Aidan...others argue his hybrid body type makes him a little lessor of an unknown - will he add a few pounds to play inside more or perhaps shed some and play edge more? Either way Karlaftis is a man amongst boys and made a 2021 campaign filled with tape of him beating offensive lineman in every possible way imagineable, handling double teams without giving up ground and even defeating them at times. I've heard the following pitching analogy used for Karlaftis which I think fits him amazingly well...."Of the edge guys in this draft he may not have the best pitches, but he very well may have the most." His technician like approach has led him to attacking not in the way he prefers but what is going to win out in that matchup based on tape. His role regardless if standing up on edge or sliding down and in is a position of need for the Packers, so this is where like Stokes a surprise drop could intersect with a need. Same thing as above needs to happen (run on QBs...) but also for Jermaine Johnson, David Ajabo and most likely Travon Walker to all "leap frog" Karlaftis, which isn't out of the realm of possibility. IMO he is the biggest fall out of my five listed...some may disagree but this is my list LOL
Devin Lloyd OR Nakobe Dean - ILBs - Utah (Lloyd) Georgia (Dean)
I put both of them because it won't be a situation where both fall to us, I'll write that down as impossible personally...however there is a chance one of them is there at our pick and similar to the McDuffie pick even if Campbell is retained and ERFA Barnes is back too....it would be vastly too difficult for Gute to ignore the skillset and offerings of either of these two ILB options. Just athletic, aggressive and diversely skilled linebackers that are IMO and many others the CLEAR top two and only two LBs worthy of a first round pick. This option is the opposite of the Karlaftis one, this holds the most likely chance of occurring out of the five listed.
Chris Olave - Wide Receiver - Ohio State - 6'1' 188lbs
Many remember me mocking Olave to the Packers before official declaration deadline for draft passed LAST YEAR...which ultimately of course couldn't happen as he returned to Ohio State. Honestly, I have him as the #2 WR in the draft for the Packers...would be #3 if Jameson Williams didn't have his injury. Burks is the only other receiver I have ranked above Olave....BUT numerous others believe his teammate Garrett Wilson is, and Drake London appears to be there as well. Factor in Jahan Dotson is a unique homerun weapon type WR that could cause a team to go his route over the more finesse and nuanced route runner that is Chris Olave. That all happens and some of the things talked about already Olave could be setting there available to be picked and honestly at that point it would be IMPOSSIBLE for me as a GM (IF I WERE) to pass on him given our depleted depth chart at WR, even if Adams comes back. Many will say this isn't much of a fall....well I cannot because I think GMs are NUTS should he make it past the 20th pick in the draft.
Trevor Penning - Offensive Tackle - Northern Iowa - 6'7' 321lbs
Its a toss up on most boards who is that most likely 'last' offensive tackle on Day 1 or most likely the 4th one gone. To me that is Trevor Penning instead of Charles Cross.....and for me it is primarily due to Cross is so much young (RS Sophomore) than arguably the equivalent as far as skillset Penning. Penning is a rockwall of immovable strength against bull or power rushes from defenders....yet somehow despite not having great lateral movement is quick with his feet with the first and follow step. It appears Turner isn't going anywhere and Yosh will most likely be retained so the "need" isn't necessarily there but Penning is a out the gate starting tackle in my book and is too much to pass up.
List of guys some may want to bring up but I personally don't see a scenario they fall to us:
Treylon Burks WR
Charles Cross OT
David Ojabo EDGE
Tyler Linderbaum iOL
Devonte Wyatt - he was going to be my 6th if I made this list 6...small small chance but more than the above 4 IMO to fall. (really 7th because I cheated with Lloyd/Dean one LOL )
So who are 5 prospects I could see something similar happening and slipping to us that IMO shouldn't...of course this cannot include the surefire top guys like Hutchinson or say Ekwonu....but who is arguably that "surefire" Top 20 guy(s) that should they slip you couldn't blame Gute for drafting them - even if they don't address a glaring need:
In no specific order...
Trent McDuffie - Cornerback - Washington - 5'11' 195lbs
Cornerback is a position of immense depletion (Jaire, Stokes, SJC and Ento is whats on the shelf) BUT our top two spots are strong, and if Rasul is signed before the draft this pick would make even less sense BUT as described in the above, this is a guy that shouldn't make it to us HOWEVER, should more QBs than many think warrant it get picked above us and a small run happens on WRs or even the limited PREMIERE defensive lineman shift things a bit McDuffie is that Top 5 CB that could drop like Stokes did. People would be quite upset if this would play out (IF Rasul is signed) BUT at the same time we know how immensely important DBs are in this passing league and we would instantly IMO have a candidate for the best cornerback room in the entire league.
George Karlaftis - DE/DL/EDGE - Purdue - 6'4' 275lbs
Karlaftis to many is the #3 "edge" guy behind just Kayvon and Aidan...others argue his hybrid body type makes him a little lessor of an unknown - will he add a few pounds to play inside more or perhaps shed some and play edge more? Either way Karlaftis is a man amongst boys and made a 2021 campaign filled with tape of him beating offensive lineman in every possible way imagineable, handling double teams without giving up ground and even defeating them at times. I've heard the following pitching analogy used for Karlaftis which I think fits him amazingly well...."Of the edge guys in this draft he may not have the best pitches, but he very well may have the most." His technician like approach has led him to attacking not in the way he prefers but what is going to win out in that matchup based on tape. His role regardless if standing up on edge or sliding down and in is a position of need for the Packers, so this is where like Stokes a surprise drop could intersect with a need. Same thing as above needs to happen (run on QBs...) but also for Jermaine Johnson, David Ajabo and most likely Travon Walker to all "leap frog" Karlaftis, which isn't out of the realm of possibility. IMO he is the biggest fall out of my five listed...some may disagree but this is my list LOL
Devin Lloyd OR Nakobe Dean - ILBs - Utah (Lloyd) Georgia (Dean)
I put both of them because it won't be a situation where both fall to us, I'll write that down as impossible personally...however there is a chance one of them is there at our pick and similar to the McDuffie pick even if Campbell is retained and ERFA Barnes is back too....it would be vastly too difficult for Gute to ignore the skillset and offerings of either of these two ILB options. Just athletic, aggressive and diversely skilled linebackers that are IMO and many others the CLEAR top two and only two LBs worthy of a first round pick. This option is the opposite of the Karlaftis one, this holds the most likely chance of occurring out of the five listed.
Chris Olave - Wide Receiver - Ohio State - 6'1' 188lbs
Many remember me mocking Olave to the Packers before official declaration deadline for draft passed LAST YEAR...which ultimately of course couldn't happen as he returned to Ohio State. Honestly, I have him as the #2 WR in the draft for the Packers...would be #3 if Jameson Williams didn't have his injury. Burks is the only other receiver I have ranked above Olave....BUT numerous others believe his teammate Garrett Wilson is, and Drake London appears to be there as well. Factor in Jahan Dotson is a unique homerun weapon type WR that could cause a team to go his route over the more finesse and nuanced route runner that is Chris Olave. That all happens and some of the things talked about already Olave could be setting there available to be picked and honestly at that point it would be IMPOSSIBLE for me as a GM (IF I WERE) to pass on him given our depleted depth chart at WR, even if Adams comes back. Many will say this isn't much of a fall....well I cannot because I think GMs are NUTS should he make it past the 20th pick in the draft.
Trevor Penning - Offensive Tackle - Northern Iowa - 6'7' 321lbs
Its a toss up on most boards who is that most likely 'last' offensive tackle on Day 1 or most likely the 4th one gone. To me that is Trevor Penning instead of Charles Cross.....and for me it is primarily due to Cross is so much young (RS Sophomore) than arguably the equivalent as far as skillset Penning. Penning is a rockwall of immovable strength against bull or power rushes from defenders....yet somehow despite not having great lateral movement is quick with his feet with the first and follow step. It appears Turner isn't going anywhere and Yosh will most likely be retained so the "need" isn't necessarily there but Penning is a out the gate starting tackle in my book and is too much to pass up.
List of guys some may want to bring up but I personally don't see a scenario they fall to us:
Treylon Burks WR
Charles Cross OT
David Ojabo EDGE
Tyler Linderbaum iOL
Devonte Wyatt - he was going to be my 6th if I made this list 6...small small chance but more than the above 4 IMO to fall. (really 7th because I cheated with Lloyd/Dean one LOL )
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