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Raptorman

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The talk around the campfire is that there will be a more "vertical" attack but we'll have to wait and see if Alex Smith can shed his "Captain Check-down" label just yet. Frankly, I think the WR's that we got are just there to keep teams honest and not necessarily a change of offensive philosophy. Harbaugh's run roughly 60% of the time anywhere he's been, even with Luck at Stanford. We'll see.
I read you "Captian Check-down" comment with interest. So I did a little number crunching. Smith does not appear to be the "Captain Check-down" as much as people think. Now, there are some small problems with the following numbers. If a pass was less than 10 yards in the air but went for more than 10 YAC it was included in the 10+ numbers. I used Rodgers as a comparison only because they are playing the Packers.

Smith. 38 games 2009-2011
Pass completions under 10 yards. 415 57.6% 10.9 per game
Pass completions over10 yards. 306 42.4% 8.1 per game

Rodgers 46 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 526 52% 11.4 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 485 48% 10.2 per game

Brady 48 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 580 52% 12.1 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 536 48% 11.2 per game

There is one more interesting thing about Smith. Last year, 2011, his pass completions under 10 yards dropped to 54% of his passes. So either he is going deeper more, or his WR's are getting more YAC.

Edit. Added last sentance.
 

HyponGrey

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OK Pack fans,
Someone's looking for trouble.
U speak of balance offensively, but no offense, even the Saints can be a balanced unit vs our defense. Each and every team to face us including teams with elite running backs give up on the run and become pass heavy or unbalanced as some like to say.
Wow, way to tout your superiority. Could that be because they were behind? Pack no know, Pack confused. Pack intimidated.[/quote]
To beat us, GB will have to pass the ball 50 to 60 times and do so without error or turnover or fumble.
We can do that. We can do that with just 40 throws.
Cedric Benson we faced last year and held him under 4yds per carry. We stuff every rushing attack en route to the passer without ever having to stack the box. This allows our DBs to completely immerse themselves in pass defense not having to worry about leakage up front. A passing team is what we want and we give up yards but not points while forcing a very high amount of turnovers on error and on downs. Then to cap things off, our ST is the league's best so when you have an elite defense and ST, you win the field position battle decidedly.
All valid points. Please try to remember we don't use our run game in the conventional manner.
As for us being run heavy, that is what we do but this year we have playmakers at WR (not as good as yours) and at TE(VD and Walker are better than yours) to force teams to cover them so they can't stack the box to slow down Frank and Kendall. A defense like ours could stop the run with less than 8 in the box but one like yours simply cannot so you will be faced with a quandary stack up or get smacked up.
We'll get stacked up. You've admitted that we practice against better WR than yours on a routine basis.[/quote]
And Benson had a lot of yardage over the years but he appeared to have stayed healthier than Gore with a lot more attempts with less than 4ypc whereas Frank has been a 5ypc RB most of his career. And you have 1 quality RB as to us having a stable along with a better run blocking OL and TEs that block better than anyone.
Wait, we can run block? Or are you saying that you can't but it doesn't matter. Either way your O line was built to Maul.
You will not stuff our run and get us off the field without loading up and even then we will make plays in space. The Pack defense just can't cut it and we won't turn it over because we don't make ill advised gunslinging throws. This game will be more likely a battle of attrition and I like our chances.
I don't think we can run stuff much anyway. Just like you claim to be, we are a red zone D. You know, where space becomes limited? I do however love your endorsement of your QB's decision making. Every fan should believe in his QB
And you quote the great Bill Walsh which every packer fan should since Holmgren but I was around when the Dallas Cowboys beat us when we had basically the same team GB had and Dallas had a team similar to ours. The sentiment around here was that DAL would not stop our offense and that we were too explosive, well it turned out to be the other way around. We could not score all those TDs we dreamed of because Emmitt and DAL OL was dominating us all game and when we overcommitted Irvin and Novacek were gashing us. They beat us in the trenches for 2 years straight OL and DL until we bought the Super Bowl in 94. We plan on doing the same thing to GB this year.
Good to know your gameplan. I would also add that the Cowboys had a little help back then when winning games. A lot like the Raiders did back in the 80's. I expect you guys to be above such?
 

49erMike

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Life time 49er fan here, just wanted to add some friendly chat to the basket. I'm sure you're all going as crazy as I am to get this season started.

It's going to be one tough game and it could go either way! Should be a great measuring stick for both teams. I'd like to say good luck, but nah.... lol
 

RonnieLott42

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I read you "Captian Check-down" comment with interest. So I did a little number crunching. Smith does not appear to be the "Captain Check-down" as much as people think. Now, there are some small problems with the following numbers. If a pass was less than 10 yards in the air but went for more than 10 YAC it was included in the 10+ numbers. I used Rodgers as a comparison only because they are playing the Packers.

Smith. 38 games 2009-2011
Pass completions under 10 yards. 415 57.6% 10.9 per game
Pass completions over10 yards. 306 42.4% 8.1 per game

Rodgers 46 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 526 52% 11.4 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 485 48% 10.2 per game

Brady 48 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 580 52% 12.1 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 536 48% 11.2 per game

There is one more interesting thing about Smith. Last year, 2011, his pass completions under 10 yards dropped to 54% of his passes. So either he is going deeper more, or his WR's are getting more YAC.

Edit. Added last sentance.
Interesting numbers to be sure Raptorman. I found this article that ties into our conversation-
http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2011/05/10/going-deep/
 

757Niner

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I read you "Captian Check-down" comment with interest. So I did a little number crunching. Smith does not appear to be the "Captain Check-down" as much as people think. Now, there are some small problems with the following numbers. If a pass was less than 10 yards in the air but went for more than 10 YAC it was included in the 10+ numbers. I used Rodgers as a comparison only because they are playing the Packers.

Smith. 38 games 2009-2011
Pass completions under 10 yards. 415 57.6% 10.9 per game
Pass completions over10 yards. 306 42.4% 8.1 per game

Rodgers 46 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 526 52% 11.4 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 485 48% 10.2 per game

Brady 48 games
Pass completions under 10 yards. 580 52% 12.1 per game
Pass completions over 10 yards 536 48% 11.2 per game

There is one more interesting thing about Smith. Last year, 2011, his pass completions under 10 yards dropped to 54% of his passes. So either he is going deeper more, or his WR's are getting more YAC.

Edit. Added last sentance.

Excellent post. Its sad that a Packer fan shows more insight to our QB than most Niner fan. The thing about Alex is his greatest strength, and it is a great strength, is also his biggest weakness. He is extremely cautious, to a fault at times, but he will not panic/choke and throw the ball up for grabs trying in desperation to thread a needle into a rock. Unlike almost all other QBs in the league, and certainly unlike most who are considered 'elite' in this game, Smith doesn’t force throws and that drives fans crazy. But as a fan, nothing drives me more crazy as forcing the ball and throwing INTs. One of the first thing Harbaugh's teaches his QB's is to value the football. It's a big sticking point with him.

He only had one healthy receiver last year in Crabtree. And Crabs is more of a glorified possession receiver. He doesn't scare a opposing secondary. Pretty much all year last year, most any team had to do was double cover Crabs and VD on any 3rd & long the team faced last year. But instead of trying to be the Greatest American Hero every 3rd down, Alex kept his head, threw the ball away or took the checkdown. Everyone booed. But the team lived to see another series. And Alex has shown that he CAN take chances when he absolutely has to – his many 4th quarter wins, and not just the ones from last year, show that – but overall he stays calm, runs plays and protects the ball.

Last year’s defense was excellent, but they were also helped very much by almost never being forced to defend a short field, almost always facing an offense backed up deep in their own territory needing to drive the whole field, and much of that was because Smith didn’t panic on 3rd down and throw INTs, desperately trying to “make a play”. Excellent special teams/punt coverage was a big part of that too, but that doesn’t work if the QB is throwing INTs.

Smith is not a superstar and he doesn’t throw impressive darts all over the field, but he has clearly shown that he is a calm, collected, intelligent player who can run an offense under pressure and hit open receivers; it’s on the coaching staff to design and call plays that will work and on the receivers to actually get open. If those two things improve, so will the 3rd down stats. Staying calm under the biggest pressure is one of the most important traits a QB can have, and it cannot be taught. It doesn’t always look pretty, and it can lead to lots of punts and grumbling, but like it or not Smith has proven time & again that he has that trait, and it was that ability to keep his head as much any other single thing that happened on the field that lead to a 14 – 4 record last year. (Which of course would certainly have been a 15 – 4, or possibly a 16 – 3 record if Kyle Williams had done even a high schoolers job against the Giants. Smith didn’t flub those punts, and his team was winning the game late in the 4th quarter when K-10 screwed up the first one, and they were holding their own – not panicking/choking – in overtime, until Williams killed them again.
 

bobgodd

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Ah, yeah, I would go with that.

About Hutson....

Don't think anyone has broken thost records yet. And, he retired in 1945.
Well for what it's worth, I won't cheapen any of those records. I also would challenge anyone to say that there is a fair comparison between the two; what kind of athletic competition did he face in the 40's? Football players back then for the most part, weren't supremely athletic and skilled, they were just better than what else was available. None of those players would even sniff a practice squad against today's players - who are all bigger, stronger, and faster.
 

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Well for what it's worth, I won't cheapen any of those records. I also would challenge anyone to say that there is a fair comparison between the two; what kind of athletic competition did he face in the 40's? Football players back then for the most part, weren't supremely athletic and skilled, they were just better than what else was available. None of those players would even sniff a practice squad against today's players - who are all bigger, stronger, and faster.
I disagree with your statement about the athletic abilities of players from the past. Not only was Hutson a WR but he also played safety and had over 30 interceptions. Many players on those teams played both offense and defense. Name one player today that even sniffs that idea on a regular basis. Oh yeah, he was also the Packers kicker/punter.
Hutson was 6-1 183 pounds, Rice 6-2 200 pounds. Rice also had the advantage of the newer rules for WR's not being mugged while going out for a pass. I wonder how well Rice would have done with a DB hanging on him while trying to make his cuts.
 

ivo610

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Well for what it's worth, I won't cheapen any of those records. I also would challenge anyone to say that there is a fair comparison between the two; what kind of athletic competition did he face in the 40's? Football players back then for the most part, weren't supremely athletic and skilled, they were just better than what else was available. None of those players would even sniff a practice squad against today's players - who are all bigger, stronger, and faster.

What are you basing that off of? Just assumptions? Or have you studied film?
 

ivo610

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Even in Rice's prime he had an equal. Sterling sharpe was just as good. No one was even in Hutsons league.

Most people have been fed the line that rice is hands down the greatest of all time by tv announcers and espn. And when someone challenges what they held as true for so many years, they reject it immediately without listening to the evidence presented.

Tony Gonzalez is the greatest TE in nfl history. I fully believe that, but would love to hear an argument otherwise that might change my mind.
 

longtimefan

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OK Pack fans, U speak of balance offensively, but no offense, even the Saints can be a balanced unit vs our defense. Each and every team to face us including teams with elite running backs give up on the run and become pass heavy or unbalanced as some like to say. To beat us, GB will have to pass the ball 50 to 60 times and do so without error or turnover or fumble. Cedric Benson we faced last year and held him under 4yds per carry. We stuff every rushing attack en route to the passer without ever having to stack the box. This allows our DBs to completely immerse themselves in pass defense not having to worry about leakage up front. A passing team is what we want and we give up yards but not points while forcing a very high amount of turnovers on error and on downs. Then to cap things off, our ST is the league's best so when you have an elite defense and ST, you win the field position battle decidedly.

As for us being run heavy, that is what we do but this year we have playmakers at WR (not as good as yours) and at TE(VD and Walker are better than yours) to force teams to cover them so they can't stack the box to slow down Frank and Kendall. A defense like ours could stop the run with less than 8 in the box but one like yours simply cannot so you will be faced with a quandary stack up or get smacked up. And Benson had a lot of yardage over the years but he appeared to have stayed healthier than Gore with a lot more attempts with less than 4ypc whereas Frank has been a 5ypc RB most of his career. And you have 1 quality RB as to us having a stable along with a better run blocking OL and TEs that block better than anyone. You will not stuff our run and get us off the field without loading up and even then we will make plays in space. The Pack defense just can't cut it and we won't turn it over because we don't make ill advised gunslinging throws. This game will be more likely a battle of attrition and I like our chances.

And you quote the great Bill Walsh which every packer fan should since Holmgren but I was around when the Dallas Cowboys beat us when we had basically the same team GB had and Dallas had a team similar to ours. The sentiment around here was that DAL would not stop our offense and that we were too explosive, well it turned out to be the other way around. We could not score all those TDs we dreamed of because Emmitt and DAL OL was dominating us all game and when we overcommitted Irvin and Novacek were gashing us. They beat us in the trenches for 2 years straight OL and DL until we bought the Super Bowl in 94. We plan on doing the same thing to GB this year.

Will you be back if Pack win?
 

GreenBlood

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I disagree with your statement about the athletic abilities of players from the past. Not only was Hutson a WR but he also played safety and had over 30 interceptions. Many players on those teams played both offense and defense.

Speaking of that era, who is the only player to lead the NFL in pass yards, passes intercepted and net punt average in the same season? Should be fairly easy for the seasoned NFL fan.
 

5x49er

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SF Offense >GB Defense
SF Defense = GB Offense
SF Special teams >GB special team

First off you must stop Frank and Kendall and combat our Jumbo sets, shifts, and 2 TE sets. I don't see you stopping us from running unless you overload like everyone else and when you try you leave Vernon Davis or Randy Moss in single coverage. You will get owned if you do sooner or later because no single DB will stop Vernon Davis and anything less than an 8 man front won't slow Frank Gore.

No team runs up the score on our defense unless it is the Saints and that is because they have an offense that is multifaceted. They run and they pass well whereas all GB does well is pass the football. That is what we want defensively. We take away your run to make you 1 dimensional in order to get you off the field with either a turnover or a punt. We bend but don't break and give you 3 points if that, we hit your QB and take away his scramble with our LBs, we strip your ball carriers and take away the pill, we rule field position on special teams and convert every kick. We make you score from 85 yds out then we take the ball, pound the rock and sit your QB by the Gatorade for 35+ mins of the game.

GB will be at home and pumped for the opener, but we will be hungry for respect. Should be a good game, but just as our QB has been less than elite, the same can be said for GB defense and running game last season. I do however expect Aaron Rodgers to be as always, out to let us know that we should have drafted him and try and stick it to his childhood team of choice that he so desperately wanted to play for but is thankful he didn't yet it must eat away at him in seeing our success last year knowing that if he were here and not Alex we should have won. I expect Alex to also want to put up a good showing in his own way and that being walking out with a win by any means necessary. But I do know that Aaron will be playing with that chip but I am looking for our defense to play with one also.





Its simple we win.
Iwont bother to try to predict a score .
Instead ill predict a letter....W.... 49ers
 

HyponGrey

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SF Offense >GB Defense
SF Defense = GB Offense
SF Special teams >GB special team

First off you must stop Frank and Kendall and combat our Jumbo sets, shifts, and 2 TE sets. I don't see you stopping us from running unless you overload like everyone else and when you try you leave Vernon Davis or Randy Moss in single coverage. You will get owned if you do sooner or later because no single DB will stop Vernon Davis and anything less than an 8 man front won't slow Frank Gore.

No team runs up the score on our defense unless it is the Saints and that is because they have an offense that is multifaceted. They run and they pass well whereas all GB does well is pass the football. That is what we want defensively. We take away your run to make you 1 dimensional in order to get you off the field with either a turnover or a punt. We bend but don't break and give you 3 points if that, we hit your QB and take away his scramble with our LBs, we strip your ball carriers and take away the pill, we rule field position on special teams and convert every kick. We make you score from 85 yds out then we take the ball, pound the rock and sit your QB by the Gatorade for 35+ mins of the game.

GB will be at home and pumped for the opener, but we will be hungry for respect. Should be a good game, but just as our QB has been less than elite, the same can be said for GB defense and running game last season. I do however expect Aaron Rodgers to be as always, out to let us know that we should have drafted him and try and stick it to his childhood team of choice that he so desperately wanted to play for but is thankful he didn't yet it must eat away at him in seeing our success last year knowing that if he were here and not Alex we should have won. I expect Alex to also want to put up a good showing in his own way and that being walking out with a win by any means necessary. But I do know that Aaron will be playing with that chip but I am looking for our defense to play with one also.
Wow, seems like you know how to do everything but shut up and be humble. Let the field work speak for itself and let not him who dons his pads boast like him who takes them off.
 

longtimefan

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SF Offense >GB Defense
SF Defense = GB Offense
SF Special teams >GB special team

First off you must stop Frank and Kendall and combat our Jumbo sets, shifts, and 2 TE sets. I don't see you stopping us from running unless you overload like everyone else and when you try you leave Vernon Davis or Randy Moss in single coverage. You will get owned if you do sooner or later because no single DB will stop Vernon Davis and anything less than an 8 man front won't slow Frank Gore.

No team runs up the score on our defense unless it is the Saints and that is because they have an offense that is multifaceted. They run and they pass well whereas all GB does well is pass the football. That is what we want defensively. We take away your run to make you 1 dimensional in order to get you off the field with either a turnover or a punt. We bend but don't break and give you 3 points if that, we hit your QB and take away his scramble with our LBs, we strip your ball carriers and take away the pill, we rule field position on special teams and convert every kick. We make you score from 85 yds out then we take the ball, pound the rock and sit your QB by the Gatorade for 35+ mins of the game.

GB will be at home and pumped for the opener, but we will be hungry for respect. Should be a good game, but just as our QB has been less than elite, the same can be said for GB defense and running game last season. I do however expect Aaron Rodgers to be as always, out to let us know that we should have drafted him and try and stick it to his childhood team of choice that he so desperately wanted to play for but is thankful he didn't yet it must eat away at him in seeing our success last year knowing that if he were here and not Alex we should have won. I expect Alex to also want to put up a good showing in his own way and that being walking out with a win by any means necessary. But I do know that Aaron will be playing with that chip but I am looking for our defense to play with one also.





Its simple we win.
Iwont bother to try to predict a score .
Instead ill predict a letter....W.... 49ers


All that from watching pre season football?

If your team had a D that has been around like Pitt, or Balitmore, then okay..But your D hasnt been that good for that long..

Just dont assume your D will be the same as last year..It SHOULD be, but you jkust never know
 

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I disagree with your statement about the athletic abilities of players from the past. Not only was Hutson a WR but he also played safety and had over 30 interceptions. Many players on those teams played both offense and defense. Name one player today that even sniffs that idea on a regular basis. Oh yeah, he was also the Packers kicker/punter.
Hutson was 6-1 183 pounds, Rice 6-2 200 pounds. Rice also had the advantage of the newer rules for WR's not being mugged while going out for a pass. I wonder how well Rice would have done with a DB hanging on him while trying to make his cuts.
The reason that he was able to play offense and defense (in my opinion) is because the lack of athletic talent surrounding him. I won't take away anything from the man, he was probably ahead of his time... But to say that he was so good he played safety AND receiver is only part of the tale. Rice's rules might have been better than in the 40's but they're not the same pass-happy offense-first rules that we have to endure in the NFL today.

Not to say that popularity is the measure of a great player, but I must ask; when the mention of the best WR ever comes about, why is Rice always the conclusion? There's no incentive for people to pick Jerry Rice over anyone else... They don't get extra raffle tickets or anything...
 

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I won't take away anything from the man, he was probably ahead of his time...
IMO this reveals you know nothing about him: "Probably" ahead of his time? Don Hutson invented the modern WR position. His numbers compare to his contemporaries the way Babe Ruth's home run numbers compare to his contemporaries.
 

ivo610

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The reason that he was able to play offense and defense (in my opinion) is because the lack of athletic talent surrounding him. I won't take away anything from the man, he was probably ahead of his time... But to say that he was so good he played safety AND receiver is only part of the tale. Rice's rules might have been better than in the 40's but they're not the same pass-happy offense-first rules that we have to endure in the NFL today.

Not to say that popularity is the measure of a great player, but I must ask; when the mention of the best WR ever comes about, why is Rice always the conclusion? There's no incentive for people to pick Jerry Rice over anyone else... They don't get extra raffle tickets or anything...

Rice is the auto pick when it comes to the espn viewers. The people that really know football? The joe horrigans, Peter kings, dr Z's, and such will say its Don Hutson.

People pick rice bc at that position it's easy to look at the numbers and see such a margin between the two. It's not like that at QB otherwise Favre would be rated #1. It's about championships (Bart Starr gets the shaft bc he won 3 titles before the SB existed). Running back is a little different. The experts say Jim brown bc he held a record for so long and dominated (just like Hutson). People like to say Barry sanders bc of the highlights and very few say Emmitt Smith even though he had a career like Rice's
 

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First of all I get tired of hearing this one-dimensional thing all the time. To end up where we end up every year offensively and to win as many games as we win how accurate can that be? McCarthy has said over and over that it's not necessarily the YPC but the number of carries that really matters in this offense. In other words he doesnt' LET the game get one dimensional where they put it up 50 or 60 times.

If they run it 26 times for 92 yards and win by two touchdowns is that considered a "one dimensional" performance?
I don't think so. If it were truly one dimensional the Packers wouldn't finish near the top in offense would it?

Look, I would rather play a team like San Francisco then a high powered offense with a decent D. Early like this with verdict still out on the D I would be more worried about a game where we get into a whoever has the ball last type game.

It's not like Rodgers has never faced a good defense before and won. History shows he, along with the rest of the offense, is better than any D he faces. I mean he carves Pittsburgh up like a pig and they have a pretty good defense don't they? One team he seems to have trouble with is the Bears but that just makes my point further in that even though he struggles against them at times they still put up W's.

In fact I see this as a Bears type game where Rodgers might not put up lights out numbers and he has to run for a few 1st downs and long drives are hard to come by but we get the W.
 

5x49er

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Wow, seems like you know how to do everything but shut up and be humble. Let the field work speak for itself and let not him who dons his pads boast like him who takes them off.



I do apollogize if im coming off as a troll, that is not my intent, I come in peace im not here to stir up any trouble with the locals.
 

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