2025 Roster - Semi Live Thread

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wow: "the decision to go for it on 4th-and-8 early in the fourth quarter against the Panthers on Sunday was the worst decision to keep an offense on the field that LaFleur has ever made in his coaching career."

Not sure it was his worst, but definitely a head scratcher in my book.

 

[tynimiller]

Super Bowl!

Packers are signing WR Michael Woods II to the Practice Squad.

Who TF is he?

Only WR Michael Woods I remember was from 2022 or 2021 draft class and was a middle of the road WR in that Day3 maybe realm. Bounced around but ended I believe at Oklahoma and didn't really put up big numbers after coming there from like Nebraska or Arkansas I think.

 

[Magooch]

Not sure it was his worst, but definitely a head scratcher in my book.

I think they were meaning in terms of estimated win percentage swing it was the most "damaging" overall. Contextually, I don't know if I'd call it "worst" either but yeah, baffling. Definitely felt like one of those situations where he'd already decided it was 4-down territory no matter what and didn't want to consider otherwise.

Relatedly another unfortunate stat I saw posted in the comments:

Over the last 6 games, 25% of Love's pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage. That's 2nd highest in the league behind only Kyler Murray.
In the same span on 13% of his attempts have been in the intermediate (10-19 yd) range, which is 3rd lowest in the league. That's a big problem as IMO Love thrives the most in that intermediate passing zone. This also calls to mind that - I think I posted about it in another thread a day or two ago - the screen game's USAGE is trending upwards somehow, but it's SUCCESS rate is trending downward and appreciably so. The WR screen in particular is a very "low percentage" play in terms of a successful EPA outcome, and in particular when facing a blitzing defense the WR screen is quite literally the worst possible play in football in terms of EPA per play in those situations. Calling up screens and especially when you're facing a blitz is more likely to produce a negative outcome than ANY other playcall. We have got to get away from that!

 

[OldSchool101]

Since we are in between games, I will put this here.

Pretty good article on MLF and his 4th down decisions being based more on his gut feeling than numbers. After reading this, I am more convinced, then I ever was, that Matt needs to give up play calling. Or more than likely, if his HC days are numbered, just be an OC for a team. He doesn't seem to do both efficiently IMO.

This article confirmed to me that Matt is often coaching by the seat of his pants and bases a lot of decision off of his emotions. Most of the rest of the NFL is relying on analytics and probabilities.

Matt LaFleur’s 4th down strategy is no numbers, just vibes

Good luck trying to predict what LaFleur will do on 4th downs in 2025.

www.acmepackingcompany.com

I’d hire someone who specializes in risk and is a probability wizard. Some HC’s just have a feel for these situations and don’t need one. The most notable are Bill B, Andy Reid and Mike Vrabel. They just stand out as masters of clock management rarely making critical mistakes. Often that strength is what makes great HC (Matt) into an Elite HC. That or an average HC into a good one.


When we get to a juncture where casual idiot fans like myself are picking up on mistakes in real time? Houston. There’s a problem! Bring the Shuttle back quick I didn’t mean to press LAUNCH. I thought it said LUNCH!! I was so hungry I’m so sorry

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Only WR Michael Woods I remember was from 2022 or 2021 draft class and was a middle of the road WR in that Day3 maybe realm. Bounced around but ended I believe at Oklahoma and didn't really put up big numbers after coming there from like Nebraska or Arkansas I think.

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Well done, your prize will be waiting for at the door. You have won a game day jock, once worn by Tony Mandarich.

 

[tynimiller]

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Well done, your prize will be waiting for at the door. You have won a game day jock, once worn by Tony Mandarich.

LOL

I vaguely remember wondering if he'd become more a TE in the league.

 

[Magooch]

Another really damning part mentioned there is talking about the Cardinals game where it looked like we were going to take the FG and then decided to keep the offense out and go for it and that's what won us the game - it's got Matt quoted as saying "...I looked up at the clock and saw how much time was left" and THEN changed his mind. I'm hoping it's just that he misspoke or didn't communicate it properly but that implies he was not entirely aware of the time/game situation when he initially called for FG. That is VERY alarming to me if that is the case. I would say that at bare minimum we need to have someone who is 100% on top of those things, even if it's not the HC, but unfortunately to us that probably falls to the assistant head coach, and, well....

 

[tynimiller]

We are bringin in a very athletic profile TE from few draft classes ago. McCallen Castles (Sa-WEEEEEET name I couldn't forget)....but be cautiously optimistic folks, he is a 2026 beyond project. Was not drafted but killed it in limited chances with Tennessee his final year on just 22 receptions put up 283 yards and 5 TDs.

Hasn't seen playing time in the league

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[Pokerbrat2000]

I think they were meaning in terms of estimated win percentage swing it was the most "damaging" overall. Contextually, I don't know if I'd call it "worst" either but yeah, baffling. Definitely felt like one of those situations where he'd already decided it was 4-down territory no matter what and didn't want to consider otherwise.

Relatedly another unfortunate stat I saw posted in the comments:

Over the last 6 games, 25% of Love's pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage. That's 2nd highest in the league behind only Kyler Murray.
In the same span on 13% of his attempts have been in the intermediate (10-19 yd) range, which is 3rd lowest in the league. That's a big problem as IMO Love thrives the most in that intermediate passing zone. This also calls to mind that - I think I posted about it in another thread a day or two ago - the screen game's USAGE is trending upwards somehow, but it's SUCCESS rate is trending downward and appreciably so. The WR screen in particular is a very "low percentage" play in terms of a successful EPA outcome, and in particular when facing a blitzing defense the WR screen is quite literally the worst possible play in football in terms of EPA per play in those situations. Calling up screens and especially when you're facing a blitz is more likely to produce a negative outcome than ANY other playcall. We have got to get away from that!

Good numbers and yes, for whatever reason(s) the short screens have been mostly duds this year. I cringe anytime I see them setting up for one. Much like the Jet Sweep or putting Savion behind center in the wildcat, Matt is the only one getting fooled on those calls.

Speaking of Savion, is it just me, or is the 2025 draft class really quiet for us? Out of the 8, well 7, since Robinson is no longer with us, who is the rookie of the year?

 

[OldSchool101]

Super Bowl!

Packers are signing WR Michael Woods II to the Practice Squad.

Who TF is he?

I thought TF was an Actor?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Another really damning part mentioned there is talking about the Cardinals game where it looked like we were going to take the FG and then decided to keep the offense out and go for it and that's what won us the game - it's got Matt quoted as saying "...I looked up at the clock and saw how much time was left" and THEN changed his mind. I'm hoping it's just that he misspoke or didn't communicate it properly but that implies he was not entirely aware of the time/game situation when he initially called for FG. That is VERY alarming to me if that is the case. I would say that at bare minimum we need to have someone who is 100% on top of those things, even if it's not the HC, but unfortunately to us that probably falls to the assistant head coach, and, well....

If memory serves me correct, it was Love that convinced MLF to go for it in that Cardinals game?

 

[tynimiller]

Good numbers and yes, for whatever reason(s) the short screens have been mostly duds this year. I cringe anytime I see them setting up for one. Much like the Jet Sweep or putting Savion behind center in the wildcat, Matt is only one getting fooled on those calls.

Speaking of Savion, is it just me, or is the 2025 draft class really quiet for us? Out of the 8, well 7, since Robinson is no longer with us, who is the rookie of the year?

We've proven elsewhere the Jet Sweep has actually been very productive this year - I know folks hate it and get sick of seeing so much but it truly is being quite productive.

 

[Voyageur]

I'd argue this, he signed a contract that stated the team had high hopes that a college prospect without a single NFL snap could do that. Zero guarantees with college prospects.

Musgrave is absolutely going to be our TE1 moving forward this season, I don't think anyone expets otherwise, it would be a second or third tier level type TE we add if we do. Whyle will be promoted for sure and we likely fill PS with someone out there.

Yes. We were blessed having two quality TEs on the roster. We had the #3 rated TE to date as far as stats, and nobody else in the top 50. That's what happens when you have a guy whose numbers pop out like Tucker's did. You use him.

the teams with two top 50 TEs are as follows:

New England 12 &33
NY Jets 20 & 43
Pittsburgh 26 & 35
Cleveland 14 & 19
Tennessee 17 & 32
Kansas City 1 & 42
NY Giants 21 & 31
Chicago 23 & 36
Seattle 22 & 34
LA Rams 37 & 40 & 44
San Francisco 27 & 41

Nobody else has two in top 44. The reality is, the TE position is not considered a necessity for the passing game with most teams. Only two teams with a TE ranked in the top 10 has two receivers in this 44. KC has Kelce and their second TE has less than 100 yards receiving and only rang up numbers when Kelce was injured to get into the mix. Next is Arizona who has Trey McBride who's ranked #4, and their #2 has 132 yards.

This is the team TE stats to date for the leaders.

Rank	Team	Receiving Yards
1	Cleveland Browns	616
1	Buffalo Bills	616
3	Kansas City Chiefs	572
4	Green Bay Packers	547
5	Indianapolis Colts	542
6	Arizona Cardinals	541
7	Los Angeles Chargers	511
8	New England Patriots	471
9	Tennessee Titans	444
10	Pittsburgh Steelers	436
11	New Orleans Saints	423
12	New York Giants	413
13	Detroit Lions	399
14	Dallas Cowboys	397
15	Las Vegas Raiders	395
16	Baltimore Ravens	384
17	Seattle Seahawks	364
18	Carolina Panthers	359
19	Houston Texans	358
20	San Francisco 49ers	352
21	Atlanta Falcons	339
22	New York Jets	338
23	Denver Broncos	336
24	Philadelphia Eagles	335
25	Miami Dolphins	334

There is no way that Musgrave and a pair of guys who can block can't muster another 400 yards during the next 9 games to hit the average of the entire league. That's less than 45 yards per game and in the Packer offense the TE is a check-down receiver more often than anyone else. Musgrave alone will hit that number, the rest will be gravy.

The loss of Kraft is devastating but it's not the end of the world. Next Sunday the Packers will take the field and we can expect them to use Musgrave the same way they did Kraft.

 

[OldSchool101]

We've proven elsewhere the Jet Sweep has actually been very productive this year - I know folks hate it and get sick of seeing so much but it truly is being quite productive.

Yes. Just don’t do that on the edge of FG range at the CAR36 on 3rd n 2. THAT drives me bonkers
Avoid the long developing 30 yard throw (-8 Sack)
Avoid the -5 screen
Avoid the handing off -6 yards in the backfield.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I thought TF was an Actor?

I think you are getting him confused with Michael Meyers?

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or maybe the cyclist, Michael Woods?

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[OldSchool101]

I think you are getting him confused with Michael Meyers?

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or maybe the cyclist, Michael Woods?

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I’m going to borrow his helmet so I can bang my head against the wall for a minute

 

[Magooch]

The jet sweeps/end arounds are kind of a mixed bag.

On one hand yes - it is generally more successful than a "traditional" run call

But on the other hand, it is significantly LESS successful than *any* passing play call

(This is broadly speaking what I was getting at regarding screens, too. When not facing a blitz, screen passes are marginally more effective than run calls...but much less effective than non-screen pass calls. When the opponent blitzes, screen passes are less effective than both screen passes and run calls)

Of course, sample size and all that - overall even if it's at a higher clip than many teams, screens and jet sweeps/end arounds make up a significantly smaller portion of the offense than "traditional" runs and non-screen passes. But I suspect if we utilized them at a higher rate we would likely see their per-play success rate go down rather than up. Just my speculation though...

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’m going to borrow his helmet so I can bang my head against the wall for a minute

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[milani]

I’d hire someone who specializes in risk and is a probability wizard. Some HC’s just have a feel for these situations and don’t need one. The most notable are Bill B, Andy Reid and Mike Vrabel. They just stand out as masters of clock management rarely making critical mistakes. Often that strength is what makes great HC (Matt) into an Elite HC. That or an average HC into a good one.


When we get to a juncture where casual idiot fans like myself are picking up on mistakes in real time? Houston. There’s a problem! Bring the Shuttle back quick I didn’t mean to press LAUNCH. I thought it said LUNCH!! I was so hungry I’m so sorry

Speaking of Houston did you see the Broncos coach Sean Payton out on the field just before Will Lutz was about to kick the game winner? He motioned and yelled to him " RIGHT THROUGH! "
I liked that. Maybe MLF should try it with McManus.

 

[Voyageur]

We've proven elsewhere the Jet Sweep has actually been very productive this year - I know folks hate it and get sick of seeing so much but it truly is being quite productive.

The jet sweep is an important play. Even when we don't gain yardage with it, the defense can't pinch in because they know we can get outside containment using it. My only problem with using it is the timing that Matt has. You need to use it when you don't have to rely on getting positive yardage not when it's essential. He's not following that lead.

As for when it's productive it's when we don't need that yardage and the defense is playing off the line of scrimmage.

 

[gopkrs]

The sweep has been a very good piay in our games. Too damn bad it's mostly when we are on defense.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Interesting article on the Packers wanting to sign Asante Samuel.

He wanted to wait until after November 4th to sign. That way he could pick the team that provided the best situation for him to play and show off his abilities. Possibly a big 2nd contract ahead for him,

"Hey Asante, you couldn't get a better situation than what's going on in Green Bay!"

Trade deadline is past...who is he signing with?

Report: Packers interested in signing CB Asante Samuel Jr.

Look for a reunion between CB Asante Samuel Jr. and Green Bay passing game coordinator Derrick Ansley on the horizon.

www.acmepackingcompany.com

 

[tynimiller]

Interesting article on the Packers wanting to sign Asante Samuel.

He wanted to wait until after November 4th to sign. That way he could pick the team that provided the best situation for him to play and show off his abilities. Possibly a big 2nd contract ahead for him,

"Hey Asante, you couldn't get a better situation than what's going on in Green Bay!"

Trade deadline is past...who is he signing with?

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/green-bay-packers-new73961ers asante-samuel-jr-rumors-free-agency-roseeose cter-updato playte-green-bay

I think he will find it uphill sledding if he desires to sign a multi-year. Dude literally had spinal fusion surgery. IF he is healthy and regains what he was, he absolutely will play in the league and start for someone. Is he an amazing stud....not in my opinion. Would he instantly if as good as he was pre-injury be our best corner...arguably yes.

Gute and Co know the window for sure is open - being the highest bidder for half a season of him for a run is something we can and arguably should do at this point.

I'm also curious if there is any older veterans that we might see released since no suitors were found...CB is not usually the position group this happens with but always something to keep eye for too

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think he will find it uphill sledding if he desires to sign a multi-year. Dude literally had spinal fusion surgery. IF he is healthy and regains what he was, he absolutely will play in the league and start for someone. Is he an amazing stud....not in my opinion. Would he instantly if as good as he was pre-injury be our best corner...arguably yes.

Gute and Co know the window for sure is open - being the highest bidder for half a season of him for a run is something we can and arguably should do at this point.

I'm also curious if there is any older veterans that we might see released since no suitors were found...CB is not usually the position group this happens with but always something to keep eye for too

I got the impression from the article that he isn't looking for the highest bidder and a long term contract. What he is looking for is the best situation to sign and play in, for the remainder of this season. Then he hopes to sign a long term deal.

I may be bias. but Green Bay is screaming "Great opportunity!"

 

[tynimiller]

I got the impression from the article that he isn't looking for the highest bidder and a long term contract. What he is looking for is the best situation to sign and play in, for the remainder of this season. Then he hopes to sign a long term deal.

I may be bias. but Green Bay is screaming "Great opportunity!"

Oh absolutely...Green Bay currently offers a guy not just a starting chance, but a HIGH probablity of playoff chance given their record.