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2025 Draft Prospects for Packers
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 1055466" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>Backtracking to earlier a bit. </p><p></p><p>This is admittedly a more "theoretical" discussion, but I guess for me it is not so much about having a "#1" when it comes strictly to numbers but more about having a go-to guy, if that makes sense.</p><p></p><p>For instance, as above, we see this year Kelce has similar numbers to Reed. But what I mean is like...when all the chips are down and you need a guy to make ONE key play for you, would you trust Kelce or Reed more to make that play? (Maybe Kelce is not the best example *this year* as he's seemingly towards the tail-end of his career, but hopefully you get what I mean)</p><p></p><p>I still really like a lot of our guys we've got. But I guess my feeling is that we just don't really have that "take over the game" type of guy yet, you know what I mean - like we're kinda short on "game-changing" talent, if you will. I love Jacobs and he's been great (and the RB position in general does seem to be gaining back more "value" recently) but I think the current state of the game still really lends towards wanting to have that kind of option in the passing game. And I am not totally convinced at this point that anyone has really shown the qualities you would want to be that "Alpha Dog" at this point. </p><p>[SPOILER]Maybe Doubs? I don't know. I love the guy, but he feels like a James Jones type of guy to me - one who can go off and explode any given week, but also isn't going to be your week-in, week-out go-to guy[/SPOILER]</p><p></p><p>But, all that to say, this type of guy usually comes at a steep price. When I look at the top 5 passing offenses in the league (yardage) they all have a "go-to guy" and 4/5 of them spent a 1st to get that guy. The outlier is the Lions...who have St. Brown as their lead receiver with ~1,200 yards but he is followed right behind by Jameson Williams (1,000 yards), who of course was also a 1st round pick. Now that's not to say you HAVE to spend a 1st to get that "True #1," "alpha dog," "go-to guy," whatever you want to call it, but at the end of the day your odds of "hitting" on that player do increase generally with that kind of expenditure.</p><p></p><p><strong>All that to say, I am not suggesting by any means we spend our 1st on a WR this year. </strong>That's far from our biggest need, and I'm not even sure there will be a player available when we'll be picking who would represent a good value and/or projects to be that type of ready-made go-to player. I guess my point is just that...if we really do believe we are missing that type of player, I don't think spending a mid-round pick is the best way to address that "problem" - more than likely you will end up with another guy like we already have plenty of: a perfectly suitable NFL player, a great depth player, even a high-level starter, but probably not a "true #1". Yes, there are exceptions, but it's less and less likely the further out you get. If we really feel that we need a true #1 go-to target, IMO it is going to require some significant investment, whether that comes by way of high draft capital or FA spending. <strong>Again I don't think this is something that makes much sense to prioritize in this coming draft</strong>, but if we feel it is a pressing issue I don't think it is likely to be solved by trying to invest with limited expense.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 1055466, member: 17987"] Backtracking to earlier a bit. This is admittedly a more "theoretical" discussion, but I guess for me it is not so much about having a "#1" when it comes strictly to numbers but more about having a go-to guy, if that makes sense. For instance, as above, we see this year Kelce has similar numbers to Reed. But what I mean is like...when all the chips are down and you need a guy to make ONE key play for you, would you trust Kelce or Reed more to make that play? (Maybe Kelce is not the best example *this year* as he's seemingly towards the tail-end of his career, but hopefully you get what I mean) I still really like a lot of our guys we've got. But I guess my feeling is that we just don't really have that "take over the game" type of guy yet, you know what I mean - like we're kinda short on "game-changing" talent, if you will. I love Jacobs and he's been great (and the RB position in general does seem to be gaining back more "value" recently) but I think the current state of the game still really lends towards wanting to have that kind of option in the passing game. And I am not totally convinced at this point that anyone has really shown the qualities you would want to be that "Alpha Dog" at this point. [SPOILER]Maybe Doubs? I don't know. I love the guy, but he feels like a James Jones type of guy to me - one who can go off and explode any given week, but also isn't going to be your week-in, week-out go-to guy[/SPOILER] But, all that to say, this type of guy usually comes at a steep price. When I look at the top 5 passing offenses in the league (yardage) they all have a "go-to guy" and 4/5 of them spent a 1st to get that guy. The outlier is the Lions...who have St. Brown as their lead receiver with ~1,200 yards but he is followed right behind by Jameson Williams (1,000 yards), who of course was also a 1st round pick. Now that's not to say you HAVE to spend a 1st to get that "True #1," "alpha dog," "go-to guy," whatever you want to call it, but at the end of the day your odds of "hitting" on that player do increase generally with that kind of expenditure. [B]All that to say, I am not suggesting by any means we spend our 1st on a WR this year. [/B]That's far from our biggest need, and I'm not even sure there will be a player available when we'll be picking who would represent a good value and/or projects to be that type of ready-made go-to player. I guess my point is just that...if we really do believe we are missing that type of player, I don't think spending a mid-round pick is the best way to address that "problem" - more than likely you will end up with another guy like we already have plenty of: a perfectly suitable NFL player, a great depth player, even a high-level starter, but probably not a "true #1". Yes, there are exceptions, but it's less and less likely the further out you get. If we really feel that we need a true #1 go-to target, IMO it is going to require some significant investment, whether that comes by way of high draft capital or FA spending. [B]Again I don't think this is something that makes much sense to prioritize in this coming draft[/B], but if we feel it is a pressing issue I don't think it is likely to be solved by trying to invest with limited expense. [/QUOTE]
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