2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[tynimiller]

Some of that is a reflection of Watson and some of it is a reflection of Love and the Packers offense. So while I am not saying that Watson isn't a good WR, I just think a lot of that production would be there with or with Watson. You just have to decipher how much Watson adds over another WR. For instance if you had to choose between keeping Doubs or Watson, and Doubs wanted $17M and Watson wanted $35M, who would you choose? Does Watson give you $18M more in production over Doubs?

Again no one is getting $35M though in the deal. Even JSN isn't hitting Seahawks truly for likely more than around $25M a year during the years of that contract which will actually happen.

Doubs deal right now that he inked - people see $17M a year deal....while yes the totality of the $68M deal divided by 4 is that figure in truth it is very likely that Doubs sees two years which will cost the Patriots $27.2M or $13.6M a year....after which the Patriots save $12.4M to cut or realease him.

Your vein of thought is correct though Poker and above is more for those that don't see or look deeper at contracts than gross figures.

I'll be honest what Watson can provide and Doubs can provide to me has at least about a 30%-40% value higher for Watson....so if you agree with Doubs deal is his market value I guess extracted that would mean I for sure think Watson's should be in the $17.4M range a year of actual likely spent or around $95.2M/4 year deal or $24M/yr gross roughly....which is not far from Pierce's too terribly much.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Again no one is getting $35M though in the deal. Even JSN isn't hitting Seahawks truly for likely more than around $25M a year during the years of that contract which will actually happen.

Doubs deal right now that he inked - people see $17M a year deal....while yes the totality of the $68M deal divided by 4 is that figure in truth it is very likely that Doubs sees two years which will cost the Patriots $27.2M or $13.6M a year....after which the Patriots save $12.4M to cut or realease him.

Your vein of thought is correct though Poker and above is more for those that don't see or look deeper at contracts than gross figures.

I'll be honest what Watson can provide and Doubs can provide to me has at least about a 30%-40% value higher for Watson....so if you agree with Doubs deal is his market value I guess extracted that would mean I for sure think Watson's should be in the $17.4M range a year of actual likely spent or around $95.2M/4 year deal or $24M/yr gross roughly....which is not far from Pierce's too terribly much.

Most definitely it boils down to non-guarantees and such. However, when you do sign a player like JSN to THAT big of a deal, you are either planning on cutting/trading him or trying to renegotiate a new deal with him. So while I get your point, as we have seen with some of our top players, huge contracts can be costly to get out of early and costly to extend.

So in the case of JSN, his contract may appear to only "cost" the Seahawks $25M/season for 4 years, due to the cap hits in those 4 years, it is a guaranteed $125M, so getting out of it after 4 years, adds another
$6.25M/year to that $25M number, via a dead cap hit of $32M.

I know that math doesn't look right, but his actual cap hits for the first 4 years would be $95,439,325M.

I guess what I am trying to say is this. When you dole out a huge contract, with huge guarantees, getting out of said contract is hugely costly. Whereas throwing the kind of money Doubs got at him, is substantially less costly for the Patriots on the front and back end. I just don't see Watson as that kind of WR that I want to tie that kind of future cap to.

 

[OldSchool101]

Just for the record. Initial reports for Smith Njigba are a 4yr Guaranteed contract at “over” $120mil guaranteed. Let’s just say it’s $121mil for practical purposes. That’s at minimum $30.25Mil yearly no matter. That’s best case. If he plays 3yrs and gets traded it’s $40.33Mil yearly. We’re talking including hiding cap inside future methods like voids or under rocks or between the felt and cotton in mattresses etc and good chance he stays 4 years and it’s restructured or similar and ends up being $35Mil++ yearly.

 

[tynimiller]

Most definitely it boils down to non-guarantees and such. However, when you do sign a player like JSN to THAT big of a deal, you are either planning on cutting/trading him or trying to renegotiate a new deal with him. So while I get your point, as we have seen with some of our top players, huge contracts can be costly to get out of early and costly to extend.

So in the case of JSN, his contract may appear to only "cost" the Seahawks $25M/season for 4 years, due to the cap hits in those 4 years, it is a guaranteed $125M, so getting out of it after 4 years, adds another
$6.25M/year to that $25M number, via a dead cap hit of $32M.

I know that math doesn't look right, but his actual cap hits for the first 4 years would be $95,439,325M.

I guess what I am trying to say is this. When you dole out a huge contract, with huge guarantees, getting out of said contract is hugely costly. Whereas throwing the kind of money Doubs got at him, is substantially less costly for the Patriots on the front and back end. I just don't see Watson as that kind of WR that I want to tie that kind of future cap to.

Oh I know what the four year cap hit is and I know that after those four years his base salary explodes and his savings to cut/release is crazy high and only hits the cap for $19M vs the $48.8M it otherwise would. Everyone bakes numbers into base salary growth just to hit the overall gross figure even though both sides know it is erroneous in nature and rarely happens.

 

[tynimiller]

Just for the record. Initial reports for Smith Njigba are a 4yr Guaranteed contract at “over” $120mil guaranteed. Let’s just say it’s $121mil for practical purposes. That’s at minimum $30.25Mil yearly no matter. That’s best case. If he plays 3yrs and gets traded it’s $40.33Mil yearly. We’re talking including hiding cap inside future methods like voids or under rocks or between the felt and cotton in mattresses etc and good chance he stays 4 years and it’s restructured or similar and ends up being $35Mil++ yearly.

Nope. Because it was an extension and due to at signing time he still had 2026 and 2027 remaining on his rookie deal (inclusive of 5th year option)...so while he signed a 4 year contract extension...due to at signing when he did they could spread that bonus money across 5 years instead of four and they did $2.5M voided into 2032.

It is a case of where if a team believes this dude is part of the future for sure and he still has a year or two on his rookie deal, just jump at the chance to extend them now and have more years to spread across than wait and not have that luxury.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Nope. Because it was an extension and due to at signing time he still had 2026 and 2027 remaining on his rookie deal (inclusive of 5th year option)...so while he signed a 4 year contract extension...due to at signing when he did they could spread that bonus money across 5 years instead of four and they did $2.5M voided into 2032.

It is a case of where if a team believes this dude is part of the future for sure and he still has a year or two on his rookie deal, just jump at the chance to extend them now and have more years to spread across than wait and not have that luxury.

*Head spinning now*

Right but what is JSN's new guaranteed money and how long do you expect his new contract to be in effect?

I am seeing $120M+ guaranteed new money. Any way you slice or dice that, it ends up being at least $30M per year, over 4 years. Not to mention that as you said, they still had him in 2026 on his rookie deal and 2027 on a 5th year option. So now you are looking at years 3 and 4 being REALLY expensive and more than $30M+/year.

Honestly, I hope the Seahawks get bit in the backside on the deal. I also hope Gute and the Packers don't give Watson anywhere near that much guaranteed money.

Maybe I need to avoid reading about football during this time of year. I am tired of teams feeling like they have to crumble to a guy that isn't happy about making "only" $17M/year, despite signing a contract to do so. I'm just throwing that number out, has nothing to do with JSN.

Yeah, yeah, I know, its the way of the NFL and other Professional and amateur (NCAA) money printing businesses.

 

[tynimiller]

*Head spinning now*

Right but what is JSN's new guaranteed money and how long do you expect his new contract to be in effect?

I am seeing $120M+ guaranteed new money. Any way you slice or dice that, it ends up being at least $30M per year, over 4 years. Not to mention that as you said, they still had him in 2026 on his rookie deal and 2027 on a 5th year option. So now you are looking at years 3 and 4 being REALLY expensive and more than $30M+/year.

Honestly, I hope the Seahawks get bit in the backside on the deal. I also hope Gute and the Packers don't give Watson anywhere near that much guaranteed money.

Maybe I need to avoid reading about football during this time of year. I am tired of teams feeling like they have to crumble to a guy that isn't happy about making "only" $17M/year, despite signing a contract to do so. I'm just throwing that number out, has nothing to do with JSN.

Yeah, yeah, I know, its the way of the NFL and other Professional and amateur (NCAA) money printing businesses.

Look at his current construction of contract on spotrac and what I said will make more sense.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nope. Because it was an extension and due to at signing time he still had 2026 and 2027 remaining on his rookie deal (inclusive of 5th year option)...so while he signed a 4 year contract extension...due to at signing when he did they could spread that bonus money across 5 years instead of four and they did $2.5M voided into 2032.

It is a case of where if a team believes this dude is part of the future for sure and he still has a year or two on his rookie deal, just jump at the chance to extend them now and have more years to spread across than wait and not have that luxury.

Ok I didn’t realize it was an extension. It’s a good way to look at it dividing across 6 years from a cost to the team view. Technically either is still correct because his current contract was already in force. I’m trying to compare it to Watson and he does not have a 5th year option here. I do see the advantage of an extension because as I said earlier, by the time his increase hits in 2 years inflation and capital increases are in play. Meaning $30.25Mil annual probably “feels” like $25-27Mil range would today. Plus a lengthy contract allows flexibility in spreading a portion of cap $$ well into the future.

Just another remark. Smith-Ngigba is another level of player over Watson. He broke the Seahawks franchise record (1,793 receiving yards) and has amassed 3,000 All purpose yards across the last 2 seasons. That’s #1 across 51 years of WR’s in Seattle
Watson across in that span has logged 1,275 all purpose. I’m also glad you brought up TD’s. JSN has 16 TD’s across the last 2 seasons to Watson’s 8 TD’s.

All this is not to infer Watson is a bad player. It’s to show there’s a tremendous disparity between Watson and Ngigbs to this point. I think it would be very dangerous to hand out a contract to Watson that bore any resemblance to 120Mil guar. Just my opinion.

 

[milani]

Anything over $300K per year is too big in my book You, I and everybody else don't make a dime coming here to entertain everyone and we don't complain.

In all seriousness though, I am trying to stop comparing NFL money to real person money. It's best to put it inside a vacuum, and focus on it as just a number and how it pertains to the other numbers in the cap equation.

So if you assign 1 unit/$1M, its easier for me to stomach and also dumbed down for conversations. Each team can have 301 units count against their cap in 2026. Watson at 35 units/year, is equivalent to 11% of those units. Which is also equivalent to 2 Romeo Doubs or about 41 UDFA players/year. You play 4-5 WR's per game and you pretty much have to bank on injuries and having to dig deeper and go to 6-8 WR's suiting up for your team every season. That is a lot of units to put into just ONE player, in a game where you need at least 3-4, each game, at that position. For me, it just isn't enough bang for the buck/unit.

Now I know, you can play the shifting around the units and make them less hurtful one year, and more painful in the next years, but depending on the contract and the guarantees, you still have to look at how those units and how they effect building your roster this season and for seasons to come.

Honestly, I wouldn't have much of a problem with big contracts, even for Watson, if they didn't involve outrageous guaranteed money. The only thing guaranteed is that you have to account for ALL of that money, there is no guarantee on a players health or abilities. The Packers have seen big guaranteed contracts sting in the last 5 years with Bahk, Rodgers, Jaire and Gary, just to name a few. I really don't like seeing that kind of money tied up in a WR, especially one that has suffered quite a few injuries in his 4 years in

What I meant to offer is the Packers were still vying for a Division title until the last couple weeks of 2025. We also went in limping to Soldier field and nearly upset them without a roomful of our best talent. That’s called Win Now imo. I’m ok with pushing a reasonable contract into the future if it means we get 2-3 more years of High Octane play in a Win Now.

My prayer going forward is I Hope Van Ness gets more playing time than his own thread gets his name mentioned!

Well, he needs it and he needs to deliver. Folks tend to make more of him than he is. The team expects him to help fill the void that is left.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Agree with most of this. Initially there was numbers being tossed around and guaranteed that is in sniffing range to Micah Parsons ($120Mil guar) Due to the Njigba contract. I think that’s where the separation comes in for me. I think Ty or someone said the actual contract won’t be that bad. That’s fine if he’s $20mil actual yearly. Especially if we get him on a longer 4yr type deal.
$20mil today and $20mil in year 4 are completely different deals. These contracts are compounding and so $20Mil average today on a 4yr deal probably feels more $16-18Mil impact over the long term. We almost always push a chunk off into future where it has less immediate bearing.

Yeah so much of this is hypothetical because Watson has not had a (mostly) healthy system. But when he does play, they guy makes a big difference.

And that's why this year is so big. I would absolutely love it if he stayed healthy and put up the numbers we know he can put up. If he does that, I don't think he gets Jefferson or Chase numbers, but it would be somewhere around $25 mil/AAV. Now if someone offers him $40 mil/AAV as a FA, well we can discuss that if and when it happens. And if he does stay healthy and puts up 1300 plus yards, 10-15 TDs, well he's gonna get paid, and the Packers will have cap room.

Bottom line is - I like Watson and without the injuries, he would likely be considered a top 10 WR.

That's a big "if" so he really has to put it together this year. I think he can. It seems he has fixed that chronic hamstring problem. I don't recall the last time he missed a game because of it - hell I don't remember the last time it was mentioned. The ACL tear ws a freak, one-off but major injury - and he recovered incredibly well. The missed game last seasson for the shoulder doesn't bother me.

Go get em CW! (And no, not Caleb Williams......)

 

[Heyjoe4]

What I meant to offer is the Packers were still vying for a Division title until the last couple weeks of 2025. We also went in limping to Soldier field and nearly upset them without a roomful of our best talent. That’s called Win Now imo. I’m ok with pushing a reasonable contract into the future if it means we get 2-3 more years of High Octane play in a Win Now.

My prayer going forward is I Hope Van Ness gets more playing time than his own thread gets his name mentioned!

LVN is going to have a make-or-break year. Does he stay in the middle as far as performance or does he use Gary;s and Parsons' absences to step up big time? Can he stay heathy? I mean damn he looks the part of an elite Edge - he has to either work on hip flexibility, or come up with moves that will quickly get him around OTs, given stiff hips.

I'm certainly pulling for the guy. Stars are aligned for a big year for LVN.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Some of that is a reflection of Watson and some of it is a reflection of Love and the Packers offense. So while I am not saying that Watson isn't a good WR, I just think a lot of that production would be there with or with Watson. You just have to decipher how much Watson adds over another WR. For instance if you had to choose between keeping Doubs or Watson, and Doubs wanted $17M and Watson wanted $35M, who would you choose? Does Watson give you $18M more in production over Doubs?

Interesting thought experiment. Doubs is a known quantity IMO and worth $17 mil AAV. Watson has the potential to be much better - but he has to stay healthy and put up elite numbers to get close to $35 mil/AAV. He's not there. I hope he achieves that. He has to prove it this year. He'll get another contract - and how much he gets paid is gonna ride on his performance in 2026-2027.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Imagine paying Christian Watson the same as Justin Jefferson.

What is JJ being paid? I don't know the guaranteed/signing bonus money, but thought he was in the $40-$45 mil/AAV range. I think J Chase is a little higher than that.

As for paying Watson those $$$ - well not unless he 1) stays healthy and 2) puts up Jefferson and Chase numbers. Even at that, signing him anywhere near $35 mil/AAV is a risk, buit someone will pay it. In that case, I'd rather the Packers paid him.

Based on other comments I think you've made Poker, it seems crazy to pay any WR $40 mil or $40 mil plus AAV. WR isn't like QB or even upper-tier Edge guys - the WR group has a lot of guys and injuries are common.

But none of that matters becasue some team, some where, will pay those numbers. As for Watson, pay him if he produces. Still a gamble, but all contracts carry risk.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Again no one is getting $35M though in the deal. Even JSN isn't hitting Seahawks truly for likely more than around $25M a year during the years of that contract which will actually happen.

Doubs deal right now that he inked - people see $17M a year deal....while yes the totality of the $68M deal divided by 4 is that figure in truth it is very likely that Doubs sees two years which will cost the Patriots $27.2M or $13.6M a year....after which the Patriots save $12.4M to cut or realease him.

Your vein of thought is correct though Poker and above is more for those that don't see or look deeper at contracts than gross figures.

I'll be honest what Watson can provide and Doubs can provide to me has at least about a 30%-40% value higher for Watson....so if you agree with Doubs deal is his market value I guess extracted that would mean I for sure think Watson's should be in the $17.4M range a year of actual likely spent or around $95.2M/4 year deal or $24M/yr gross roughly....which is not far from Pierce's too terribly much.

Yeah your reasoning on the type of contract Watson could expect is very, well, reasonable. Hard to say if one, healthy season (assuming that happens) will make up for many years where injury played a big role.

IMO Watson has gotten stronger and better since fixing his hamstring/leg-strength disparity. ACL is a freak injury, but it takes a lot of time off the clock. Once he returned last year, he was mostly healthy and very productive.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

What is JJ being paid? I don't know the guaranteed/signing bonus money, but thought he was in the $40-$45 mil/AAV range.

Jefferson's contract averages $35M/year. But as @tynimiller will point out, the amount the Vikings intended to pay him was probably far less. That said, with the way JJ's contract is structured, along with the new contracts WR's are being given, the Vikings will be up against a big JJ decision after this season. Restructure his current contract or be prepared to take almost a $50M cap hit in 2027. They could try to trade him after this season and deal with the $67M dead cap hit.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

Interesting thought experiment. Doubs is a known quantity IMO and worth $17 mil AAV. Watson has the potential to be much better - but he has to stay healthy and put up elite numbers to get close to $35 mil/AAV. He's not there. I hope he achieves that. He has to prove it this year. He'll get another contract - and how much he gets paid is gonna ride on his performance in 2026-2027.

Overpaying on potential is the NFL GM trap that I would like to see the Packers avoid. Especially when that payment requires a large sum of guaranteed money. I understand that it is an investment in the future of a player/team, but for me there are too many variables that can make that guaranteed amount come back to bite a team.

Rashan Gary is a classic example of this. The chatter was always about Gary\s "potential" and the Packers ended up giving him a pretty sizeable second contract based on that. It never happened and now they are paying for it.

Since this is an LVN thread, I will throw his name into the hat too. There is no way Gute and the Packers should give LVN a new contract at this time, based off of his potential.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Look at his current construction of contract on spotrac and what I said will make more sense.

I did before I posted that. Something interesting and a bit confusing about JSN's contract, at least how Spotrac shows it. Look at the Dead Cap hit. It is listed to currently be at $71M. Which isn't technically correct, because if you add up all his guaranteed money its over $120M, as Spotrac says "with a little over $120M guaranteed for practical purposes."

Anyway, to come up with his actual per year salary, your baseline is that $120M divided by how many actual seasons he plays for the Seahawks. Also, keep in mind that along the way, he picks up bonuses and non-guaranteed money, that aren't in that $120M, so they would have to get added to it.

Long story short, I believe JSN will be making far more than what you posted:

That means $23-$24M a year for him for four years. SIGN ME UP

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[Pokerbrat2000]

All this contract talk has reaffirmed my theory on guaranteed money. I understand that the nature of top professional sports markets have evolved towards large amounts of it being doled out, especially in the NBA and MLB. However, those 2 sports have a much different cap structure than the NFL and thus, I think it is much harder for NFL teams to navigate around these huge guarantees, especially when they go south. I also don't see as many NBA and MLB players suffer career ending injuries that suddenly leave a team paying players that aren't playing and not being able to pay new talent.

Those problems don't seem to have stopped NFL teams from doing it and guarantees have been drastically rising since about 2022. As I have said in the past, NFL teams pretty much print their own money, are required to spend a minimum/maximum amount it and all is well. It may sound funny, but I think it is us the fans that pay the price for these huge guarantees when they go south. How? Higher ticket prices, higher product costs and higher merchandise cost. Not to mention having to watch a team suffer through the consequences of its own bad contract decisions, by putting a more diluted team on the field.

 

[OldSchool101]

The other aspect of paying any player Top 5 area $$ for their position. It opens up a world of choices. Next year FA aren’t limited to Christian Watson as our choice.
Davante Adams pacing 959-17 TD’s
George Pickens 1,429-9 TD’s
Drake London paced 1,302-13 TD’s
Chris Olave 1,163-9 TD’s
Christian Watson pacing 1,081 10 TD’s
Quentin Johnston pacing 977-10 TD’s.
Zay Flowers 1,211 yards 5 TD’s.

Now not all these guys will flip teams. Yet when we start tossing around
$30-40mil annually they just might. This list doesn’t include other good receivers that provide a deep threat OR who are currently pacing in the moderate 750+ yards 5-7TD’s etc. some of which will offer slightly less projection but at 50% of the Cap hits of these league leaders. Just food for thought is all. There are at least a dozen other FA Wideouts I’d be looking at when we start talking $30mil++ annual because I can likely find one in the same neighborhood production for much less than $30Mil average guarantee. Several have a very similar resume (non complete seasons to injury history) that could be 50% of these guarantees.

GB should have EIGHT draft selections between RD2-5 season. Kinda like the idea of swapping bottom 51 contracts and for near net ZERO Cap hit at WR by drafting a pair of Wideouts to start 2027– (RD2/RD5 OR RD3/RD4).

 

[Heyjoe4]

The other aspect of paying any player Top 5 area $$ for their position. It opens up a world of choices. Next year FA aren’t limited to Christian Watson as our choice.
Davante Adams pacing 959-17 TD’s
George Pickens 1,429-9 TD’s
Drake London paced 1,302-13 TD’s
Chris Olave 1,163-9 TD’s
Christian Watson pacing 1,081 10 TD’s
Quentin Johnston pacing 977-10 TD’s.
Zay Flowers 1,211 yards 5 TD’s.

Now not all these guys will flip teams. Yet when we start tossing around
$30-40mil annually they just might. This list doesn’t include other good receivers that provide a deep threat OR who are currently pacing in the moderate 750+ yards 5-7TD’s etc. some of which will offer slightly less projection but at 50% of the Cap hits of these league leaders. Just food for thought is all. There are at least a dozen other FA Wideouts I’d be looking at when we start talking $30mil++ annual because I can likely find one in the same neighborhood production for much less than $30Mil average guarantee. Several have a very similar resume (non complete seasons to injury history) that could be 50% of these guarantees.

GB should have EIGHT draft selections between RD2-5 season. Kinda like the idea of swapping bottom 51 contracts and for near net ZERO Cap hit at WR by drafting a pair of Wideouts to start 2027– (RD2/RD5 OR RD3/RD4).

Very interesting stuff OS, thanks. I had no ideas these guys may be available after the season.

It's certainly better to keep a player that's been around, like Watson. But he has to have a relatively injury-free year with top 10 WR numbers to get a big second contract. IMO he'll be fine. Yes, injuries are unpredictable and it's unfortunate he has to avoid them to book a big year. The chronic, soft-tissue problem with his hamstring is apparently in the past, and that's a big injury to overcome.

But if things don't work out, there are options.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's certainly better to keep a player that's been around, like Watson. But he has to have a relatively injury-free year with top 10 WR numbers to get a big second contract.

This is the Catch-22 of a lot of contract sistuations. If you wait on a guy to "prove" he can stay healthy (for that season) and his production (for that season) goes up, his asking numbers go up. Let's just say that Watson produces numbers similar to JSN in 2026, is he suddenly "worth" as much as JSN?

Personally, if a guy is under contract for another season, I don't like signing them to another contract too early. I think the risk of injury and performance drop offsets the risk of having to pay him more at the end of the season. I also think not having a new big contract, with guarantees, motivates a player to play harder and hungrier.