2023 Draft Talk

[Pokerbrat2000]

The Bears have a brutal schedule remaining after Sunday. I only see them as having a slight chance of beating the Lions @Detroit, otherwise they play the Eagles, Bills and Vikings.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm thinking an equal chance that we lose 1 or both games too.

I was pulling for the Packers to win on Sunday night, but at this point, losses mean better draft picks (in all rounds), so I am ok with the losses. I don't believe that wins in 2022 translate to motivation in 2023. Actually, now that I really think about it, losing might be the motivation that the FO and MLF need to make coaching changes, as well to let some of these players know, improvement is needed. The worse thing that happens to the Packers is a 5 game winning streak and complacency sets in and no changes are made.

I personally don't think running the table and having 9 wins does anything but hurt stock. The amount of other games that have to go our way is insane...and just not feasible IMO. IT would be a miracle.

The Cowboys are at least winning 2 more with likes of the Colts, Texans, Jags and Commanders on their schedule.
Giants win two more they hit 9 and have tie break...they have Commanders twice yet, and the Colts.
Commanders win two more they have tie break...they have Falcons, Giants twice and Browns...

One of these two win their division...the other may not get in depending.
Seahawks win four of their remaining they hit 10 and they have Panthers, Rams x2, Jets, 49ers, KC
49ers need three more to hit 10...they have Dolphins, Buccs, Seahawks, Commanders, Raiders and Cardinals.


The NFC South leaders are only at 5 wins....and we are still behind both of them ATL and BUCCS for WC spots.

 

[Magooch]

FiveThirtyEight currently puts us as just 0.5 point favorites vs the Bears; they have it as a win probability of 52% for GB and 48% for CHI.
By the same measure we are currently favored by 4 points against the Rams, 63%-37% but obviously that could change depending on the results of the next couple of weeks.

In general I would say we should probably win both but if I had to guess my completely non-scientific take on it would have me thinking it's probably about equally likely we go 1-1 in those two games as it is we go 2-0 (and if we're being honest it would not be shocking to see 0-2 either, would it?)

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I personally don't think running the table and having 9 wins does anything but hurt stock. The amount of other games that have to go our way is insane...and just not feasible IMO. IT would be a miracle.

The Cowboys are at least winning 2 more with likes of the Colts, Texans, Jags and Commanders on their schedule.
Giants win two more they hit 9 and have tie break...they have Commanders twice yet, and the Colts.
Commanders win two more they have tie break...they have Falcons, Giants twice and Browns...

One of these two win their division...the other may not get in depending.
Seahawks win four of their remaining they hit 10 and they have Panthers, Rams x2, Jets, 49ers, KC
49ers need three more to hit 10...they have Dolphins, Buccs, Seahawks, Commanders, Raiders and Cardinals.


The NFC South leaders are only at 5 wins....and we are still behind both of them ATL and BUCCS for WC spots.

Totally agree with running the table or even winning any games doesn't do anything but hurt their draft position.

I think I read that the Packers odds of making the playoffs is around 2%. I'd throw money into the lottery right now than bet on that. I don't see the Packers beating either the Dolphins or Vikings.

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[tynimiller]

Totally agree with running the table or even winning any games doesn't do anything but hurt their draft position.

I think I read that the Packers odds of making the playoffs is around 3%. I'd throw money into the lottery right now than bet on that. I don't see the Packers beating either the Dolphins or Vikings.

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I will go as far as to say this....playing Rodgers the rest of this year is a bigger mistake by Gute than them deciding to draft Love when they did.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

From
@ESPNStatsInfo
: ESPN Analytics gives the Packers a 2% chance to make the playoff.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I will go as far as to say this....playing Rodgers the rest of this year is a bigger mistake by Gute than them deciding to draft Love when they did.

Fully agree.

I don't know who's decision it will be, I assume MLF's, but it is time to see what they have in Love and not taking that opportunity, would just be beyond stupid.

 

[Magooch]

FiveThirtyEight currently puts us as just 0.5 point favorites vs the Bears; they have it as a win probability of 52% for GB and 48% for CHI.
By the same measure we are currently favored by 4 points against the Rams, 63%-37% but obviously that could change depending on the results of the next couple of weeks.

In general I would say we should probably win both but if I had to guess my completely non-scientific take on it would have me thinking it's probably about equally likely we go 1-1 in those two games as it is we go 2-0 (and if we're being honest it would not be shocking to see 0-2 either, would it?)

To expand on this...we are currently picking 8th, and if I'm reading it properly it looks like the teams ahead of us are Houston, Chicago, LAR, Denver, Carolina, New Orleans, and Arizona?

Just going off the FiveThirtyEight projections for their remaining games.
The Texans are more or less a lock for #1. They're projected to lose all of their remaining games (Browns, Cowboys, Chiefs, Titans, Jaguars, Colts), giving them a final record of 1-15-1.
Chicago are also projected to lose all of their remaining games (GB, Philly, Buffalo, Detroit, and Minnesota); that would see them finish at 3-14 and just about guaranteed #2.
Rams game vs the Raiders is currently given as a pick 'em, it's a wash. They're projected to lose to us, beat the Broncos, and lose to the Chargers and Seahawks (twice). So that's a best-case scenario of 2 wins, 4 losses but you could also call it 1 win and 5 losses. They're looking at then 5-12 or maybe 4-13.
Broncos have projected a loss to the Ravens, a loss to the Chiefs, toss-up with the Cardinals, loss to the Rams, another loss to the Chiefs, and a loss to the Chargers: 1 win, 5 losses, or perhaps 0-6. So they'd be 3-14 or maybe 4-13.
The Panthers are projected to lose to Seattle, beat the Steelers, beat the Lions, lose to the Buccaneers, and lose to the Saints to go 2-3. That'd put them at 6-11.
They have the Saints losing to the Bucs, beating the Falcons, losing to the Browns, losing to the Eagles, and beating the Panthers, so 2-3 for them and a 6-11 finish as well.
The Cardinals then are projected to beat the Patriots, toss-up with the Broncos, lose to the Bucs, lose to the Falcons, and lose to the 49ers, so they are looking at 2-3 or maybe 1-4, although it should be noted that the games vs the Bucs and Falcons are virtually toss-ups too. It wouldn't be a shock to see a 4-1 finish out of them really. But as far as the projections go that would put them at 6-11 as well, maybe 5-12.
And finally you've got us. As before we're narrowly favored over the Bears, projected to beat the Rams, lose to the Dolphins and Vikings, and beat the Lions. 3 wins, 2 losses, for a final record of 7-10 based on their projections.

SO that's all a roundabout way of saying that if everything goes as is presently projected we stay pretty close to where we are. But we're only barely favored to beat the Bears, and some of the teams ahead of us presently have some pick 'ems or otherwise close ones that could go their way, too.
"Best-case" scenario (hereby meaning highest draft position) if I had to guess would probably have us about 5th or 6th. Houston and Chicago are pretty much locks for the top spots if I had to guess, and I don't see us finishing worse than the Rams or Broncos by a degree great enough to leapfrog them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

To expand on this...we are currently picking 8th, and if I'm reading it properly it looks like the teams ahead of us are Houston, Chicago, LAR, Denver, Carolina, New Orleans, and Arizona?

Just going off the FiveThirtyEight projections for their remaining games.
The Texans are more or less a lock for #1. They're projected to lose all of their remaining games (Browns, Cowboys, Chiefs, Titans, Jaguars, Colts), giving them a final record of 1-15-1.
Chicago are also projected to lose all of their remaining games (GB, Philly, Buffalo, Detroit, and Minnesota); that would see them finish at 3-14 and just about guaranteed #2.
Rams game vs the Raiders is currently given as a pick 'em, it's a wash. They're projected to lose to us, beat the Broncos, and lose to the Chargers and Seahawks (twice). So that's a best-case scenario of 2 wins, 4 losses but you could also call it 1 win and 5 losses. They're looking at then 5-12 or maybe 4-13.
Broncos have projected a loss to the Ravens, a loss to the Chiefs, toss-up with the Cardinals, loss to the Rams, another loss to the Chiefs, and a loss to the Chargers: 1 win, 5 losses, or perhaps 0-6. So they'd be 3-14 or maybe 4-13.
The Panthers are projected to lose to Seattle, beat the Steelers, beat the Lions, lose to the Buccaneers, and lose to the Saints to go 2-3. That'd put them at 6-11.
They have the Saints losing to the Bucs, beating the Falcons, losing to the Browns, losing to the Eagles, and beating the Panthers, so 2-3 for them and a 6-11 finish as well.
The Cardinals then are projected to beat the Patriots, toss-up with the Broncos, lose to the Bucs, lose to the Falcons, and lose to the 49ers, so they are looking at 2-3 or maybe 1-4, although it should be noted that the games vs the Bucs and Falcons are virtually toss-ups too. It wouldn't be a shock to see a 4-1 finish out of them really. But as far as the projections go that would put them at 6-11 as well, maybe 5-12.
And finally you've got us. As before we're narrowly favored over the Bears, projected to beat the Rams, lose to the Dolphins and Vikings, and beat the Lions. 3 wins, 2 losses, for a final record of 7-10 based on their projections.

SO that's all a roundabout way of saying that if everything goes as is presently projected we stay pretty close to where we are. But we're only barely favored to beat the Bears, and some of the teams ahead of us presently have some pick 'ems or otherwise close ones that could go their way, too.
"Best-case" scenario (hereby meaning highest draft position) if I had to guess would probably have us about 5th or 6th. Houston and Chicago are pretty much locks for the top spots if I had to guess, and I don't see us finishing worse than the Rams or Broncos by a degree great enough to leapfrog them.

I like the fact that a lot of these "losing teams" are playing each other in the final 6 weeks, but that is the same for the Packers (Bears, Rams, Lions). I think "best case" scenario for Packers is actually the #2 spot. Losing to the Bears this weekend, helps with that.

According to the chart below, the Packers have the 20th toughest schedule remaining, but I like their position over most of the 3-6 game winners that they will be "competing with" for draft position.

NFL Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon

Shows the remaining strength of schedule for NFL teams based on the winning percentage of the opponents left on their schedule.

www.tankathon.com

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'm thinking an equal chance that we lose 1 or both games too.

I was pulling for the Packers to win on Sunday night, but at this point, losses mean better draft picks (in all rounds), so I am ok with the losses. I don't believe that wins in 2022 translate to motivation in 2023. Actually, now that I really think about it, losing might be the motivation that the FO and MLF need to make coaching changes, as well to let some of these players know, improvement is needed. The worse thing that happens to the Packers is a 5 game winning streak and complacency sets in and no changes are made.

Good point. Well we'll see how it goes. I expect they'll win 2 or 3, and not because of or in spite of Love. Rather because of the lousy coaching of the D.

 

[Todd Princl]

I am seeing Skoronski listed as a possible tackle to draft, and I know that arm length doesn’t seem to be taken as seriously as it used to, but man he only has 32 inch arms.
What about a guy like Paris Johnson who hasn’t given up a sack and is listed as a top 10 pick. He has good arm length at 35 and 1/2.

 

[tynimiller]

I am seeing Skoronski listed as a possible tackle to draft, and I know that arm length doesn’t seem to be taken as seriously as it used to, but man he only has 32 inch arms.
What about a guy like Paris Johnson who hasn’t given up a sack and is listed as a top 10 pick. He has good arm length at 35 and 1/2.

I've not heard confirmation of that figure being a measurement recently taken. I have Paris high than him.

 

[Todd Princl]

I hope it is okay putting this post amongst all this schedule talk. I didn’t know where to put it.
If we are going to draft a tackle, I would like him to have tackle credentials. Even though Johnson played some guard he seems more like the prototype.

 

[Packerbacker1996]

I will go as far as to say this....playing Rodgers the rest of this year is a bigger mistake by Gute than them deciding to draft Love when they did.

Depending on Rodgwrs decision to play another year or retire this should go like this
Math eliminated from playoffs.
Ridgers retiring = Love rest of the way full time.
Rodgers coming back or maybe coming back = Rodgers & Love split play time 50/50 rest of season.
(The Why) Rodgers needs to continue to work with Watson, Doubs and Toure to develop chemistry and timing.

Love plays the other 50% to be assessed and raise trade value most likly or become an expensive backup for another year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Depending on Rodgwrs decision to play another year or retire this should go like this
Math eliminated from playoffs.
Ridgers retiring = Love rest of the way full time.
Rodgers coming back or maybe coming back = Rodgers & Love split play time 50/50 rest of season.
(The Why) Rodgers needs to continue to work with Watson, Doubs and Toure to develop chemistry and timing.

Love plays the other 50% to be assessed and raise trade value most likly or become an expensive backup for another year.

The problem with that way of thinking, the Packers and probably Rodgers himself, don't know what he is doing in 2023. He may retire, be a Packer or play in another uniform.

The other thing in play here and it is the supposed reason that Rodgers doesn't play in the preseason is injury. With that in mind and the fact that the Packers have a 2% chance of making the playoffs, this talk of Rodgers playing until that number is zero, is rather silly to me. Especially, when you factor in just how valuable those 5 games would be to Love and the Packers organizations future.

 

[Pkrjones]

The other thing in play here and it is the supposed reason that Rodgers doesn't play in the preseason is injury. With that in mind and the fact that the Packers have a 2% chance of making the playoffs, this talk of Rodgers playing until that number is zero, is rather silly to me. Especially, when you factor in just how valuable those 5 games would be to Love and the Packers organizations future.

Exactly! The organization needs to do what's in their best interest, and evaluating Love is THE #1 priority now that the season isn't ending in a SB. If AR won't "gracefully" sit down & heal Gute needs to IR him & take that "option" away from AR. I totally understand AR doesn't want to turn over the team to Love (& get "Bledsoed" - relinquish the QB role in GB)... but the organization needs to do what's best for itself & see what Love can do by starting & playing 5 regular season games.

 

[Mondio]

I have zero issue playing to win at any point in the regular season. not putting forth your best effort from preparation to game day is a recipe for a long stretch of losing. So, if the chance is .0005% we make the playoffs, but we're still in it, I have zero issue with playing our best players.

The Love stuff will get sorted out when it gets sorted out.

I have a feeling if the players had a quarter as much animosity towards each other and their coaches and people on here seem to think is this team would have imploded a long, long time ago.

 

[tynimiller]

I have zero issue playing to win at any point in the regular season. not putting forth your best effort from preparation to game day is a recipe for a long stretch of losing. So, if the chance is .0005% we make the playoffs, but we're still in it, I have zero issue with playing our best players.

The Love stuff will get sorted out when it gets sorted out.

I have a feeling if the players had a quarter as much animosity towards each other and their coaches and people on here seem to think is this team would have imploded a long, long time ago.

I've come around on the logic of playing Rodgers if there is a chance merely for the locker room reasoning. Do I think it is the smartest decision on every front - no, I'll argue that till I'm blue in the face. BUT I have come down from their is zero logic to playing him because team mentality and if you lose too much this year that could impact the 2023 season as well.

 

[Packerbacker1996]

The problem with that way of thinking, the Packers and probably Rodgers himself, don't know what he is doing in 2023. He may retire, be a Packer or play in another uniform.

The other thing in play here and it is the supposed reason that Rodgers doesn't play in the preseason is injury. With that in mind and the fact that the Packers have a 2% chance of making the playoffs, this talk of Rodgers playing until that number is zero, is rather silly to me. Especially, when you factor in just how valuable those 5 games would be to Love and the Packers organizations future.

They can split halfs for the rest of the season if Rodgers is fairly sure he is coming back or alternate games.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course Rodgers is older and has his contract to contend with but it's not like Wilson was *dramatically* better before being traded - and in general I think just about everyone would agree that Rodgers is viewed as the better player overall at the end of the day.

Rodgers would count only $16 million towards the cap in 2023 for a team trading for him. While that number would increase to $32 million in 2024 that would still not be outrageous.

Giants win two more they hit 9 and have tie break...they have Commanders twice yet, and the Colts.
Commanders win two more they have tie break...they have Falcons, Giants twice and Browns...

As mentioned in another thread the Packers could win a tiebreaker over both the Giants or Commanders if the Seahawks end up with the same record as well.

I will go as far as to say this....playing Rodgers the rest of this year is a bigger mistake by Gute than them deciding to draft Love when they did.

In my opinion there's absolutely no truth to that statement at all.

 

[tynimiller]

Rodgers would count only $16 million towards the cap in 2023 for a team trading for him. While that number would increase to $32 million in 2024 that would still not be outrageous.



As mentioned in another thread the Packers could win a tiebreaker over both the Giants or Commanders if the Seahawks end up with the same record as well.





In my opinion there's absolutely no truth to that statement at all.

On the last point I have came around and down off the ledge if you will some one that.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

In my opinion there's absolutely no truth to that statement at all.

As someone who has been so critical of the Love selection, I would think that you of all people, would be wanting to see if you are actually right and he was a wasted pick? Maybe you fear that if he did play, he would prove you and others wrong?

So yes, there is some truth to how important playing Love is during games that have no meaning for the season and a potential ton of meaning for the Packers future.

 

[OldSchool101]

My guess is we finish either 6-11 or 7-10.

The league uses SOS to determine tiebreaker and we have a leaning more difficult than average season schedule overall. Meaning that part does not bode well in a tie record and we’ll be passed in the draft by a few identical record teams.

My current guess:

if we play Rodgers well finish 7-10 and we pick #10-12 overall.

If we play Love we’ll finish 6-11 and we’ll pick #7-9 overall.
Outliers draft:
We finish 8-9 and we pick #13-16
overall.
We finish 5-12 and we pick #5-6 overall

We can comfortably be looking in that top #11 area.

 

[tynimiller]

My guess is we finish either 6-11 or 7-10.
That should be somewhere in that #5-#

Concur. I think 6 is most likely if I were to lay a bet down.

That still puts us in a wheel house spot for a team to possibly do a BIG trade if someone loves the third QB prospect and doesn’t think they’ll make it to them if they fall to us. OR that is easily a spot for a blue chip Tackle, DB and you could push more chips into offensive skill spots and go TE (Mayer) if there or probably first or second WR.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

My guess is we finish either 6-11 or 7-10.

The league uses SOS to determine tiebreaker and we have a leaning more difficult than average season schedule overall. Meaning that part does not bode well in a tie record and we’ll be passed in the draft by a few identical record teams.

My current guess:

if we play Rodgers well finish 7-10 and we pick #10-12 overall.

If we play Love we’ll finish 6-11 and we’ll pick #7-9 overall.
Outliers draft:
We finish 8-9 and we pick #13-16
overall.
We finish 5-12 and we pick #5-6 overall

We can comfortably be looking in that top #11 area.

You forgot to mention finishing 4-13 and having one of the top 2 or 3 picks in the first 6 rounds.