2023 Draft Talk

[Deleted member 6794]

Do you think Graham Gano, Nick Folk and Michael Badgley all be sent walking? They both had KO distance averages about the same or worse than Mason Crosby in last season.

As I have mentioned repeatedly, you need to be aware that touchbacks are scored as a 65-yard kickoff no matter how far they travelled. Therefore solely taking a look at the average kickoff distance is completely misleading.

It makes more sense to evaluate the touchback percentage for each kicker. Gano (59.5%) had a much better number than Crosby (20.3%). It doesn't make any sense to list Badgley at all, as he had a total of only five kickoffs with two of them being onside kicks and another one from the 50 which he tried to keep out of the end zone.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That’s something I’d like to address.

Do you think Graham Gano, Nick Folk and Michael Badgley all be sent walking? They both had KO distance averages about the same or worse than Mason Crosby in last season.

I could see offering him less $$. but we could do a lot worse imo and Kickers cracking the top half of the league don’t just grow on trees.

Good point. And being consistent inside the 50 on FGs is still more important, IMO, than putting kickoffs in the end zone. And long FGs - 50 to 60 - seem more rare as teams are willing to go for it on 4th down.

As long as Crosby still enjoys the grind and will take less money, that's fine. But really, how much cap space are we talking? In the scheme of things it's not a ton. If they like him, pay him.

 

[tynimiller]

Three Prospects we DON'T need but dear Lord I am a massive fan of despite us have no need for them:

Jack Campbell LB Iowa - This cat had my eye from the jump, but us not being in the game for an early LB I haven't shared a ton on him or others. Honestly, though if in the second round Campbell is still there and Gute would turn a card in with his name on it, while I don't like it for the 2023 Packers, dear lord all mighty this cat is awesome. He tested as one of the most athletic (RAS 9.98) LBs since MathBomb has been inputting players into his database which I think he went back to late 90's. Where the trend is smaller off ball guys, Campbell bucks that with coming in at 249lbs but loses nearly nothing in range and accessibility to attacking plays and coverage. Is he an ELITE coverage or deep long range speed guy, better than many but not amazing but a 4.65 forty and a 1.58 ten yard split is more than ample to cover TEs and be in position in coverages due to his high level processing ability. He is one of the most consistent presences on the field...in 2022 it wasn't a game or two of explosion that led him to racking up 125 tackles...he only had one game with less than 8 tackles and the highest (once) total in a game was 13. Just massively consistent. And it isn't just the weaker games where he shines...in 2022 against ranked opponents plus the bowl game against UK he averaged 10 tackles (5 solo). I cannot say enough though regardless of how much I love this prospect the problem with picking him is the early nature of pick it should take and that is a high pick NOT used to better fill bigger needs.

Joey Porter Jr. CB PSU - I would say in the last 5 draft cycles or so I cannot think of a CB I've liked more than Joey Porter Jr outside of Greg Newsome and Sauce Gardner. Porter has just insane length....his arms are longer than most starting OL in the league at 34 inches...he's more than 6'2'....rocked slighter frame just under 200lb...and his strength is truly exhibited at times in his jamming abilities and his ability to win tackles in the open field and even in run support. He would absolutely cost our Day 1 and even more than the Campbell pick above it arguably isn't the proper use of picks...but unlike the Campbell one Porter for sure would see a ton of snaps immediately because with Stokes out it seems at least for some time and Porter easily being a better CB IMO than Rasul...he would instantly allow Jaire to move around, or Rasul to safety which I know MLF said isn't the plan initially till Stokes returns, but I think that is the plan WITHOUT a Porter added. JP Jr isn't the best prospect in this draft, but I think he may be my favorite.

The final guy that at least in my opinion we don't need with what draft pick it would most likely take is going to seem odd but Jalen Carter. Honestly, I am just not going to beat around the bush here. I think he is a bad human, he is on my don't draft list, but dear Lord the young man is unblockable. Un-freaking-blockable. BUT I don't personally put it at better odds than 50-50 that character issues off the field or even on don't steal time from his availability in his rookie deal. Just a massively immature and low-character person it seems......BUT my word the man would be an absolute PHENOM to add to our defensive front...and truthfully would nock Wyatt's snap count down some.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Three Prospects we DON'T need but dear Lord I am a massive fan of despite us have no need for them:

Jack Campbell LB Iowa - This cat had my eye from the jump, but us not being in the game for an early LB I haven't shared a ton on him or others. Honestly, though if in the second round Campbell is still there and Gute would turn a card in with his name on it, while I don't like it for the 2023 Packers, dear lord all mighty this cat is awesome. He tested as one of the most athletic (RAS 9.98) LBs since MathBomb has been inputting players into his database which I think he went back to late 90's. Where the trend is smaller off ball guys, Campbell bucks that with coming in at 249lbs but loses nearly nothing in range and accessibility to attacking plays and coverage. Is he an ELITE coverage or deep long range speed guy, better than many but not amazing but a 4.65 forty and a 1.58 ten yard split is more than ample to cover TEs and be in position in coverages due to his high level processing ability. He is one of the most consistent presences on the field...in 2022 it wasn't a game or two of explosion that led him to racking up 125 tackles...he only had one game with less than 8 tackles and the highest (once) total in a game was 13. Just massively consistent. And it isn't just the weaker games where he shines...in 2022 against ranked opponents plus the bowl game against UK he averaged 10 tackles (5 solo). I cannot say enough though regardless of how much I love this prospect the problem with picking him is the early nature of pick it should take and that is a high pick NOT used to better fill bigger needs.

Joey Porter Jr. CB PSU - I would say in the last 5 draft cycles or so I cannot think of a CB I've liked more than Joey Porter Jr outside of Greg Newsome and Sauce Gardner. Porter has just insane length....his arms are longer than most starting OL in the league at 34 inches...he's more than 6'2'....rocked slighter frame just under 200lb...and his strength is truly exhibited at times in his jamming abilities and his ability to win tackles in the open field and even in run support. He would absolutely cost our Day 1 and even more than the Campbell pick above it arguably isn't the proper use of picks...but unlike the Campbell one Porter for sure would see a ton of snaps immediately because with Stokes out it seems at least for some time and Porter easily being a better CB IMO than Rasul...he would instantly allow Jaire to move around, or Rasul to safety which I know MLF said isn't the plan initially till Stokes returns, but I think that is the plan WITHOUT a Porter added. JP Jr isn't the best prospect in this draft, but I think he may be my favorite.

The final guy that at least in my opinion we don't need with what draft pick it would most likely take is going to seem odd but Jalen Carter. Honestly, I am just not going to beat around the bush here. I think he is a bad human, he is on my don't draft list, but dear Lord the young man is unblockable. Un-freaking-blockable. BUT I don't personally put it at better odds than 50-50 that character issues off the field or even on don't steal time from his availability in his rookie deal. Just a massively immature and low-character person it seems......BUT my word the man would be an absolute PHENOM to add to our defensive front...and truthfully would nock Wyatt's snap count down some.

I'd love to have Joey Porter Jr. And with the future play of Stokes a question mark, it would be nice to have some insurance. But yeah, the Packers have bigger needs with their first three picks, and Porter won't be among them. But the guy is incredible. If he adds another 10 lbs of muscle, he'll be an All Pro multiple times. Well, probably.......

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Three Prospects we DON'T need but dear Lord I am a massive fan of despite us have no need for them:

Jack Campbell LB Iowa - This cat had my eye from the jump, but us not being in the game for an early LB I haven't shared a ton on him or others. Honestly, though if in the second round Campbell is still there and Gute would turn a card in with his name on it, while I don't like it for the 2023 Packers, dear lord all mighty this cat is awesome. He tested as one of the most athletic (RAS 9.98) LBs since MathBomb has been inputting players into his database which I think he went back to late 90's. Where the trend is smaller off ball guys, Campbell bucks that with coming in at 249lbs but loses nearly nothing in range and accessibility to attacking plays and coverage. Is he an ELITE coverage or deep long range speed guy, better than many but not amazing but a 4.65 forty and a 1.58 ten yard split is more than ample to cover TEs and be in position in coverages due to his high level processing ability. He is one of the most consistent presences on the field...in 2022 it wasn't a game or two of explosion that led him to racking up 125 tackles...he only had one game with less than 8 tackles and the highest (once) total in a game was 13. Just massively consistent. And it isn't just the weaker games where he shines...in 2022 against ranked opponents plus the bowl game against UK he averaged 10 tackles (5 solo). I cannot say enough though regardless of how much I love this prospect the problem with picking him is the early nature of pick it should take and that is a high pick NOT used to better fill bigger needs.

Joey Porter Jr. CB PSU - I would say in the last 5 draft cycles or so I cannot think of a CB I've liked more than Joey Porter Jr outside of Greg Newsome and Sauce Gardner. Porter has just insane length....his arms are longer than most starting OL in the league at 34 inches...he's more than 6'2'....rocked slighter frame just under 200lb...and his strength is truly exhibited at times in his jamming abilities and his ability to win tackles in the open field and even in run support. He would absolutely cost our Day 1 and even more than the Campbell pick above it arguably isn't the proper use of picks...but unlike the Campbell one Porter for sure would see a ton of snaps immediately because with Stokes out it seems at least for some time and Porter easily being a better CB IMO than Rasul...he would instantly allow Jaire to move around, or Rasul to safety which I know MLF said isn't the plan initially till Stokes returns, but I think that is the plan WITHOUT a Porter added. JP Jr isn't the best prospect in this draft, but I think he may be my favorite.

The final guy that at least in my opinion we don't need with what draft pick it would most likely take is going to seem odd but Jalen Carter. Honestly, I am just not going to beat around the bush here. I think he is a bad human, he is on my don't draft list, but dear Lord the young man is unblockable. Un-freaking-blockable. BUT I don't personally put it at better odds than 50-50 that character issues off the field or even on don't steal time from his availability in his rookie deal. Just a massively immature and low-character person it seems......BUT my word the man would be an absolute PHENOM to add to our defensive front...and truthfully would nock Wyatt's snap count down some.

Honestly, this might be the Bulldog fan in me, but if Jalen Carter falls, you can't pass on him. He might be the second coming of Marcell Dareus, but from what I saw on the field, he's dominant. I think dealing with the courts and that tragedy threw a wrench into his pro day, but I could be completely wrong. Have to take the swing there I think.

 

[tynimiller]

Honestly, this might be the Bulldog fan in me, but if Jalen Carter falls, you can't pass on him. He might be the second coming of Marcell Dareus, but from what I saw on the field, he's dominant. I think dealing with the courts and that tragedy threw a wrench into his pro day, but I could be completely wrong. Have to take the swing there I think.

Oh it wasn't just his handling of well life ending decisions, but how incredibly out of shape and apparently uncommitted.....now he and his agent are refusing to even do visits with teams outside the top 10 picks....dude is just a whole slew of red flags.

BUT dear Lord he is unblockable at times that makes me want to ignore everything.

 

[tynimiller]

Let me put it this way. I believe Carter as a football player is the first non-QB I'd be willing Gute to trade the "house" for. If there were zero red flags about him and it was announced we traded with Arizona This year and next year first rounders plus something else for their pick and we took him.....I'd be so torn up over losing so many picks, but logically I couldn't argue against it. I believe he is that damn good.

 

[OldSchool101]

I truly don't understand any Packers fan thinking that way. In my opinion the last 30 years since Favre became the starter have all been fun. They might be in for some tough years starting with Rodgers not being around anymore.

I’m with Joe. I can’t remember a season I was more intrigued by seeing a new option at QB. Probably since 2008. Although I suppose I’m not a traditional fan, I love me a good underdog. There’s something about the unknown and watching a new player/team with potential develop. Especially when that player/team has been criticized in a continuum by both some fans and Media alike. Loves situation fits that. Lost his Dad and life Coach as a teenager to suicide. How can you not root for that kid. God has always backed Orphans, Widows and the underprivileged and a servant is not greater than his master. Thus it’s really quite easy for me to root for Jordan. I get tired of those that disrespect our creator, Feud with parents and take physical gifts for granted (aka Aaron Rodgers)

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Since we continue to be linked to Jalin Hyatt, did he do a three cone drill at his pro day? I've searched, but I'm not finding anything.

 

[Dantés]

Here are a few scenarios. In each, the Packers have #42 from the Jets and have swapped 1st rounders, in addition to other considerations that don't factor here.

Which one would you want?


Trade Up: Green Bay packages #13, #116, and #149 for #11

1.11: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

2.42: Keeanu Benton, iDL, Wisconsin

2.45: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State

3.78: Jartavius Martin, DB, Illinois


Trade Down: Green Bay sends #13 to the Chargers for #21 and #54

1.21: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

2.42: Kelee Ringo, DB, Georgia

2.45: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

2.54: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State

3.78: Zacch Pickens, DL, South Carolina


Stay Put:

1.13: D. Wright, OL, Tennessee

2.42: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State

2.45: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Mississippi

3.78: Jaquelin Roy, DL, LSU

 

[Dantés]

Since we continue to be linked to Jalin Hyatt, did he do a three cone drill at his pro day? I've searched, but I'm not finding anything.

I haven't seen anything.

It's possible that he started it at his pro day and hasn't finished yet.

 

[tynimiller]

Here are a few scenarios. In each, the Packers have #42 from the Jets and have swapped 1st rounders, in addition to other considerations that don't factor here.

Which one would you want?


Trade Up: Green Bay packages #13, #116, and #149 for #11

1.11: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

2.42: Keeanu Benton, iDL, Wisconsin

2.45: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State

3.78: Jartavius Martin, DB, Illinois


Trade Down: Green Bay sends #13 to the Chargers for #21 and #54

1.21: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

2.42: Kelee Ringo, DB, Georgia

2.45: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

2.54: Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State

3.78: Zacch Pickens, DL, South Carolina


Stay Put:

1.13: D. Wright, OL, Tennessee

2.42: Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State

2.45: Jonathan Mingo, WR, Mississippi

3.78: Jaquelin Roy, DL, LSU

I despise the idea of trading up but I will admit I prefer those prospects ….I would hate day 3 but purely these scenarios I’d have to pick that one.

 

[gopkrs]

I'd stay put and take O line. Though at 13, there might be another one also. Get a TE in the 2nd.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I'd stay put and take O line. Though at 13, there might be another one also. Get a TE in the 2nd.

I like the picks but would reverse the order. Take a TE in rd 1 and OT in rd 2. My concern is that there will be a run on TEs in the last half of round 1, leaving the Packers with "also rans" in rd 2, or TEs not worth a rd 2 investment.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’m going to use the trade down there.

We get a dynamic TE for once. We cover both Safety and Corner by going after CB Ringo and he’s a diversified schematically, pro typical GB size and blazing fast.
Then we go on to get a Big bodied WR to give Love a near-full arsenal of receiving targets.
We could always use depth and competition in the trenches on OL without draining massive resources there (we’ve already picked like 8 OL across 3 consecutive drafts) without succumbing to too much substantial overlap.
Then at DT we’d finally have our replacement for losing Kingsley Keke.

The trade back positions us perfectly to get our Star TE, while getting 5 dart throws inside 78 selections. We resigned Hollins and Enagbare was an ascending Rookie last year. I feel like those 2 veterans can hold the Edge rotational down for a quarter season or two, until Rashan Gary is injected back as a starter.

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as draft sleepers. Michael Wilson is a late Day 2- earlier Day 3 guy that is flying under the radar, mostly due to injury concerns and a system that was not pass friendly at all. Wilson was the leading Stanford Receiver when on the field He said to stand out at the Senior bowl He’s #7 here on the top 10 list clip. His cut ability and initial acceleration look Pro Slot ready.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

He’s also said to be a fantastic blocker, which we all know we covet.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Wilson had a relatively poor 40 time (4.58) but killed his 10 yard split (1.50). He’s bigger than a typical Slot, but I actually think he could play that role at the Pro level and he’d be a chess piece for blocking in the Run game.

 

[Dantés]

I'd stay put and take O line. Though at 13, there might be another one also. Get a TE in the 2nd.

I’m sure if they were targeting OL at #13, they would have some options. However, I wouldn’t personally want anyone but Paris Johnson or Darnell Wright.

 

[Dantés]

As far as draft sleepers. Michael Wilson is a late Day 2- earlier Day 3 guy that is flying under the radar, mostly due to injury concerns and a system that was not pass friendly at all. Wilson was the leading Stanford Receiver when on the field He said to stand out at the Senior bowl He’s #7 here on the top 10 list clip. His cut ability and initial acceleration look Pro Slot ready.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

He’s also said to be a fantastic blocker, which we all know we covet.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Wilson had a relatively poor 40 time (4.58) but killed his 10 yard split (1.50). He’s bigger than a typical Slot, but I actually think he could play that role at the Pro level and he’d be a chess piece for blocking in the Run game.

Wilson, when healthy, is a really good player. Stylistically, he’s very similar to Doubs.

 

[Dantés]

I’m going to use the trade down there.

We get a dynamic TE for once. We cover both Safety and Corner by going after CB Ringo and he’s a diversified schematically, pro typical GB size and blazing fast.
Then we go on to get a Big bodied WR to give Love a near-full arsenal of receiving targets.
We could always use depth and competition in the trenches on OL without draining massive resources there (we’ve already picked like 8 OL across 3 consecutive drafts) without succumbing to too much substantial overlap.
Then at DT we’d finally have our replacement for losing Kingsley Keke.

The trade back positions us perfectly to get our Star TE, while getting 5 dart throws inside 78 selections. We resigned Hollins and Enagbare was an ascending Rookie last year. I feel like those 2 veterans can hold the Edge rotational down for a quarter season or two, until Rashan Gary is injected back as a starter.

I also like the trade back scenario, but I’m super conflicted on Kincaid. TE in round 1 is a graveyard. But he himself looks like a stud. And if you look at the misses in the first round, most of them are swings on plus athletes who weren’t really refined players at the position. We don’t know how Kincaid would have tested, but he is certainly not raw as a flex tight end. I got back and forth.

 

[Dantés]

I like the picks but would reverse the order. Take a TE in rd 1 and OT in rd 2. My concern is that there will be a run on TEs in the last half of round 1, leaving the Packers with "also rans" in rd 2, or TEs not worth a rd 2 investment.

The quality of players at OT in round 2 will be way worse than at TE.

Just for reference, here are the number of tight ends that were gone by pick #45 in the last 10 drafts:

2022: 0
2021: 1
2020: 1
2019: 2
2018: 2
2017: 4
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 2
2013: 2

The odds that the Packers get cleaned out at tight end by the time they come up to pick in round 2 is very minimal.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And long FGs - 50 to 60 - seem more rare as teams are willing to go for it on 4th down.

There were a total of 224 field goal attempts from at least 50 yards last season. That's the highest number per average at 13.2 attempts per week in league history.

Joey Porter Jr. CB PSU - I would say in the last 5 draft cycles or so I cannot think of a CB I've liked more than Joey Porter Jr outside of Greg Newsome and Sauce Gardner. Porter has just insane length....his arms are longer than most starting OL in the league at 34 inches...he's more than 6'2'....rocked slighter frame just under 200lb...and his strength is truly exhibited at times in his jamming abilities and his ability to win tackles in the open field and even in run support. He would absolutely cost our Day 1 and even more than the Campbell pick above it arguably isn't the proper use of picks...but unlike the Campbell one Porter for sure would see a ton of snaps immediately because with Stokes out it seems at least for some time and Porter easily being a better CB IMO than Rasul...he would instantly allow Jaire to move around, or Rasul to safety which I know MLF said isn't the plan initially till Stokes returns, but I think that is the plan WITHOUT a Porter added. JP Jr isn't the best prospect in this draft, but I think he may be my favorite.

According to several reports Stokes is expected to be ready to return for training camp.

I’m with Joe. I can’t remember a season I was more intrigued by seeing a new option at QB. Probably since 2008. Although I suppose I’m not a traditional fan, I love me a good underdog. There’s something about the unknown and watching a new player/team with potential develop. Especially when that player/team has been criticized in a continuum by both some fans and Media alike. Loves situation fits that. Lost his Dad and life Coach as a teenager to suicide. How can you not root for that kid. God has always backed Orphans, Widows and the underprivileged and a servant is not greater than his master. Thus it’s really quite easy for me to root for Jordan. I get tired of those that disrespect our creator, Feud with parents and take physical gifts for granted (aka Aaron Rodgers)

Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to next season as well and will be extremely interested in Love's development. I completely disagree with the notion that any of the last 15 seasons with Rodgers starting hasn't been fun to watch though.

Since we continue to be linked to Jalin Hyatt, did he do a three cone drill at his pro day? I've searched, but I'm not finding anything.

According to RAS Football Hyatt ran a 7.06 three cone drill. I have no idea if that information is accurate.

Then at DT we’d finally have our replacement for losing Kingsley Keke.

I wasn't even aware the Packers needed a replacement for Keke

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Then at DT we’d finally have our replacement for losing Kingsley Keke.

I think Keke is out of football or at least he didn't play in 2022. The Texans picked him up the day after the Packers cut him on 1/19/22. He was then cut right after the draft and couldn't make the Cardinals squad. Appears the Packers may have made the right call on releasing him after he argued with the coaches concerning his role on the team.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

There were a total of 224 field goal attempts from at least 50 yards last season. That's the highest number per average at 13.2 attempts per week in league history.



According to several reports Stokes is expected to be ready to return for training camp.



Don't get me wrong, I'm looking forward to next season as well and will be extremely interested in Love's development. I completely disagree with the notion that any of the last 15 seasons with Rodgers starting hasn't been fun to watch though.



According to RAS Football Hyatt ran a 7.06 three cone drill. I have no idea if that information is accurate.



I wasn't even aware the Packers needed a replacement for Keke

Not great Bob... I don't where they are getting that from, but his lack of play vs. press and a 7+ 3 cone(if accurate) doesn't give the warm and fuzzies about beating press man at the next level.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The quality of players at OT in round 2 will be way worse than at TE.

Just for reference, here are the number of tight ends that were gone by pick #45 in the last 10 drafts:

2022: 0
2021: 1
2020: 1
2019: 2
2018: 2
2017: 4
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 2
2013: 2

The odds that the Packers get cleaned out at tight end by the time they come up to pick in round 2 is very minimal.

OK, well thanks and I hope you're right. In this case though the past isn't helpful. There are likely 4 TEs gone by #45 this year.

There are a lot of good TEs this year. I do agree that getting a solid OT is a priority. Even if he hadn't injured his knee, Bakh is getting on. And the Packers pick early in all rounds, I think, so maybe they get their TE in round 2.

 

[tynimiller]

The quality of players at OT in round 2 will be way worse than at TE.

Just for reference, here are the number of tight ends that were gone by pick #45 in the last 10 drafts:

2022: 0
2021: 1
2020: 1
2019: 2
2018: 2
2017: 4
2016: 1
2015: 0
2014: 2
2013: 2

The odds that the Packers get cleaned out at tight end by the time they come up to pick in round 2 is very minimal.

A buddy of mine was breaking down some historical pick trends like he does every year. He loves to establish over/unders for positions gone by Pick 50. He says it can be a massive indication of what to expect from his past observations.

They predicted an over/under line of 4.5 for TEs to be gone in top 50 which coincides with what you're saying.

Good news is most folks argue there are 5 or 6 starting caliber TEs in this draft...now some are quite TE1s out the gate but a starting level TE2 at minimum most likely:

In no particular order: Kincaid / Mayer / Washington / LaPorta / Musgrave / Kraft

Truth is UNLESS something crazy happens and a massive run on TEs happen the likelihood of two of these guys setting there for our second round pick is very high. So the question Gute would need to figure out is how far apart do I have these guys graded....how likely am I to be able to get Big Dog resigned cheap to serve alone one of these guys if I only get one.

It is honestly for this trend reasoning that unless we do a trade back, I'm less and less inclined to believe using a first rounder on a TE is the wisest of decisions.