2021 Dantés Draft Thread

GleefulGary

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I don't want to speculate that his measureables ABSOLUTELY takes him off the Packers Big Board, but I believe I can say with confidence he will undoubtedly fall off of SOME teams boards....which COULD include the Packers.

I actually applaud you for doing your homework on this, because other than Steve Smith and Wes Welker, I can't think of any other WR who've even topped 500 yds rec at 5'9 or less. Smith went 74th Overall in the 2001 Draft while Welker went undrafted in 2004.

I was actually pleasantly surprised to find out Julian Edleman and Danny Amendola are 5'10 and 5'11 respectively.

Tyreek Hill is sub 5’9
 

Favre>Rodgers259

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Tyreek Hill is listed at 5"10/185 on his 2016 NFL Draft, the Chiefs website, pro-football reference, among others.
 

Favre>Rodgers259

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Ok I'll roll with it but still, we're talking a very small percentage of sub 5'9 WRs who find success in the NFL. Does Moore have the chops? Maybe, but we won't know til we see him on the field against NFL talent. He's the epitome of high risk/high reward to me.

I'd rather the Packers hedge their bets on someone else(and preferably another position), they cannot afford to have a 1st Round bust at this juncture in Rodgers career.
 

GleefulGary

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Ok I'll roll with it but still, we're talking a very small percentage of sub 5'9 WRs who find success in the NFL. Does Moore have the chops? Maybe, but we won't know til we see him on the field against NFL talent. He's the epitome of high risk/high reward to me.

I'd rather the Packers hedge their bets on someone else(and preferably another position), they cannot afford to have a 1st Round bust at this juncture in Rodgers career.

I saw him toast an Ohio State team littered with NFL players. Does that count?

I wouldn’t take him in the first round, but acting like he’s somebody we shouldn’t take period is foolish.
 
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Dantés

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I saw him toast an Ohio State team littered with NFL players. Does that count?

I wouldn’t take him in the first round, but acting like he’s somebody we shouldn’t take period is foolish.

I think, given the way that LaFleur can use players with his skill set in unique ways, I would consider Moore with their 3rd pick. But I don't think I would take him over other options at #29 or #62.
 

Favre>Rodgers259

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We can agree to disagree that's fine, we'll know one way or another eventually. @Dantés says 3rd Round, and I could live with that, although I'd prefer Day 3 if we were to go his way at all; but again, that's just my analysis of the situation. I'm not like Gute in the sense that we need to Draft these 6'5+ but I think we can find an explosive slot guy who's 6'0-6'3.
 

GleefulGary

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We can agree to disagree that's fine, we'll know one way or another eventually. @Dantés says 3rd Round, and I could live with that, although I'd prefer Day 3 if we were to go his way at all; but again, that's just my analysis of the situation. I'm not like Gute in the sense that we need to Draft these 6'5+ but I think we can find an explosive slot guy who's 6'0-6'3.

What if they’re 5’10 with longer arms than the 6’1 player?

Measurements are good. Valuable. Sometimes I think the layman concentrates too much on them though.
 

GleefulGary

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I think, given the way that LaFleur can use players with his skill set in unique ways, I would consider Moore with their 3rd pick. But I don't think I would take him over other options at #29 or #62.

That’s very fair. I wouldn’t take him at 29 either. I never really thought he was an option there, even when it was thought that he was 5’9.

Depending on who they take, and who is available, I would consider him at 62. I think he’s definitely good enough for that spot.
 

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What if they’re 5’10 with longer arms than the 6’1 player?

Measurements are good. Valuable. Sometimes I think the layman concentrates too much on them though.

An interesting scenario to say the least but arm length and height are proportional to a degree, or you could at least argue that there's a positive correlation between the two.

My question to that would be, "who uses that length better?" MVS, despite having 32.25in arms, makes a lot of body catches, compared to Adams who is 3+ inches shorter with 32.625in arms and can pluck anything out of the air.

So in this particular scenario it would prove the point you're trying to make but that boils down to the skills of each individual player no matter what.

Moore has plus balls skills I'm not questioning that, this is more about is he going to hold up to NFL punishment and be able to beat NFL cover guys who are going to be better in coverage and have possibly up to a half a foot of height advantage on average.
 
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Dantés

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So the Packers have historically been one of, if not the best OL drafting team in the NFL. They will need to continue that trend in 2021, as the OL is a need. One of the commonalities among guys they like are agility drills-- the three cone and the short shuttle.

Typically, among guys who are good on the field (i.e. this isn't in replacement of actually play), OL that are in the 7.7's or better in the three cone and 4.7's or better in the short shuttle have a higher chance of success, at least in Green Bay.

Here are the tackles that have met the thresholds so far along with their grade from Lance Zierlein.

Dillon Radunz, NDSU

6'5" 304#
4.53 SS, 7.27 3C
6.26

Samuel Cosmi, Texas

6'6" 314#
4.39 SS, 7.35 3C
6.25

Spencer Brown, N. Iowa

6'8" 311#
4.44 SS, 7.03 3C
6.25

Walker Little, Stanford

6'7" 313#
4.58 SS, 7.43 3C
6.20

Brady Christensen, BYU

6'6" 302#
4.46 SS, 7.33 3C
6.19

Josh Ball, Marshall

6'7" 308#
4.67 SS, 7.75 3C
6.16

Brenden James, Nebraska

6'5" 298#
4.51 SS, 7.51 3C
5.98
 

tynimiller

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Spencer Browns ability to move at 6'8" is almost impossible it would seem to be real.
 
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After the moves and non-moves of the first wave of free agency, this is how I'm thinking about their positional priorities in the first round.

Most Likely:
  • Cornerback: They need immediate help if they can find it, while also looking ahead to next year when the top corner other than Alexander will be... Ka'Dar Hollman?
  • Tackle: Billy Turner could probably hang in there at RT, or split the season with a rookie, but he isn't a great answer in the long or short term.
  • Interior Defensive Line: There is slightly less need here after the apparent decision to keep Lowry, but this team traditionally loves to draft interior defensive linemen. This is supposed to be a weak class, so hopefully they don't reach.
Less Likely:
  • Wide Receiver: They have zero wide receivers under contract after this season (as in, none). So immediate contributions would be great, but the future also makes it a huge priority.
  • Linebacker: Given the youth of the main pieces they have here already, a veteran would make more sense to me than a rookie; also the Packers just don't take off-ball linebackers high.
  • Safety: The right guy could easily get nabbed at #29 if the Packers plan to use a lot of 3 safety looks, but obviously with Amos and Savage in house it isn't as critical as some other spots.
Least Likely:
  • Interior Offensive Line: A long term solution at center could be pursued, or at guard if they plan to move Elgton. But the Packers are unlikely to take a guard or center in the first round.
  • Edge: They delayed the need to cut Preston by a season, but they have Gary and Za'Darius on the roster already.
  • Tight End: They may want to groom a replacement for Lewis, but not @ 29.
  • Running Back: I would love to see what would happen if they took Etienne in the 1st round.
  • Quarterback: Probably not two years in a row...
I would not be surprised if the Packers spent 3 picks on receivers in this draft, a la 2018. There could be some stiff competition for the final 3-4 spots on the depth chart.

Gutekunst joined the organization as a scout in 1998 and then as an executive in 2012. Since 2012, here is what the Packers have done in the top 3 rounds...

QB: 1 pick in the 1st round
RB: 2 picks in the 2nd round
TE: 3 picks in the 3rd round
WR: 1 pick in the 2nd; 1 pick in the 3rd
OT: 1 pick in the 2nd
iOL: 1 pick in the 2nd
iDL: 2 picks in the 1st; 1 pick in the 2nd; 2 picks in the 3rd
ED: 2 picks in the 1st; 1 pick in the 3rd
LB: 1 pick in the 3rd
CB: 2 picks in the 1st; 3 picks in the 2nd; 1 pick in the 3rd
S: 2 picks in the 1st; 1 pick in the 2nd

So the draft trends would say that they're most like to take an on-the-ball defensive player or a defensive back.
 
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Dantés

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With a couple notable OT/OL prospects measuring in lately with really short arms (Brady Christensen w/ 32.25"; Alijah Vera-Tuckey w/ 32.13"), I have been wanting to get a sense for what kind of arm length typically plays at tackle in the NFL.

Not being able to find a data base that would sort for arm length, I decided to try and put together my own sample.

Below is every starting tackle I could think of (past and present) who is either currently or who at once was at least a solid starting player. I welcome other names that I didn't come up with.

It's a sample of 50 guys:
  • David Bakhtiari: 34.08
  • Bryan Bulaga: 33.25
  • Jared Veldheer: 33.00
  • Chad Clifton: 33.00
  • Taylor Decker: 33.75
  • Riley Reiff: 33.25
  • Brian O'Neill: 34.13
  • Charles Leno: 34.38
  • Morgan Moses: 35.38
  • Alejandro Villanueva: ??
  • Marcus Gilbert: 33.50
  • Orlando Brown: 35.00
  • Ronnie Stanley: 35.63
  • Joe Thomas: 33.75
  • Jedrick Wills: 34.25
  • Jack Conklin: 35.00
  • Dion Dawkins: 35.00
  • Darryl Williams: 35.00
  • Laremy Tunsil: 34.25
  • Isaiah Wynn: 33.38
  • Trent Brown: 36.00
  • Nate Solder: 35.50
  • Sebastian Vollmer: ??
  • Mekhi Becton: 35.63
  • Tyron Smith: 36.38
  • Lane Johnson: 35.25
  • Jason Peters: 33.13
  • Anthony Castonzo: 34.25
  • Braden Smith: 32.25
  • Taylor Lewan: 33.88
  • Jake Matthews: 33.38
  • Kaleb McGary: 32.88
  • Russell Okung: 36.00
  • Taylor Moton: 34.13
  • Terron Armstead: 34.00
  • Ryan Ramczyk: 33.75
  • Donovan Smith: 34.38
  • Tristan Wirfs: 34.00
  • Andrew Whitworth: 35.00
  • Rob Havenstein: 33.75
  • Duane Brown: 34.25
  • Mike McGlinchey: 34.00
  • Trent Williams: 34.25
  • Brandon Staley: 34.25
  • D.J. Humphrey: 33.63
  • Kelvin Beachum: 33.25
  • Kolton Miller: 34.25
  • Eric Fisher: 34.25
  • Mitchell Schwartz: 33.5
  • Garett Bolles: 34.00
There are only two guys who showed up with sub 33" arms-- Braden Smith and Kaleb McGary.

That is not an encouraging outcome, as McGary only barely made this list (he may go on to prove stable, but he has one terrible year and one OK one to his name).

What these results are telling me is that betting on a guy playing tackle with sub 33" arms is a really low odds wager. There is a safety net in that guys can always slide inside, but I think the Packers should probably scratch Christensen and AVT as RT prospects.
 

tynimiller

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I was gonna say, everytime I see sub-33 I always, right or wrong, circle them as a guard move prospect.

Now I like the guys that proved Tackle able at a high level in college, yet have short arms. They typically will slide inside and yet offer Tackle option if needed or a test there given record.
 
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Brady Christensen:
  • 6'6" 302#
  • 32.25" arms
  • 34" vertical
  • 124" broad
  • 4.89 forty
  • 4.46 SS
  • 7.33 3C
Joel Bitonio:
  • 6'4" 302#
  • 33.88" arms
  • 32" vertical
  • 114" broad
  • 4.97 forty
  • 4.44 SS
  • 7.37 3C
 

tynimiller

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Brady's extremely good RAS score also helps me keep him on my draft list despite his short arms as his RAS score to me indicates a guy very capable of being a swing type lineman. Presently with reported numbers only Cosmi and Brown have better RAS scores.
 
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Brady's extremely good RAS score also helps me keep him on my draft list despite his short arms as his RAS score to me indicates a guy very capable of being a swing type lineman. Presently with reported numbers only Cosmi and Brown have better RAS scores.

He is totally draftable, just not as a tackle.

But you also have to figure in his Mormon mission. He's a 24 year old rookie.
 
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One of the most interesting players in this entire class is Walker Little, OT from Stanford.

By some outlets, he was the top recruit in the entire country when he graduated in 2017.

He started the entire season in 2018 at left tackle as a RS Fr and played very well-- was first team, all conference.

He came back and played week 1 against Northwestern in 2019 and looked to have improved even upon 2018, but he suffered a knee injury and missed the rest of the season.

Then he chose to opt out of the PAC 12's unnecessarily sloppy and truncated 2020 season.

He recently weighed in and tested at Stanford's pro day:

6'7" 313 lbs
33.75" arms
111" broad jump (83rd %)
30" vertical (62nd %)
4.58 shuttle (82nd %)
7.43 cone (89th %)

So he's an exceptional athlete, in great shape. And he crushed the agility thresholds that have traditionally helped the Packers identify successful OL (7.7's or better in the 3C; 4.7's or better in the SS).

So, on the one hand you have a guy who has played one game in two seasons. The last time he faced a live opponent was 19 months ago. We know that he was good on 8/31/19, but we don't know anything thereafter.

On the other hand, this is an elite pedigree. He was considered the best OT recruit in the nation, and he was backing it up on the field. It's like his trajectory got cut off short, but what you can see was heading straight up.

I have no idea where a guy with this kind of profile will go. 1st round would not surprise me. 3rd round will not surprise me. But I'd like to see him carrying the "G."
 

tynimiller

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Yes, Walker is 100% a guy I want. His time spent since that injury had a large part with Duke Manyweather. Little is going to start in the NFL I 100% believe that.
 

tynimiller

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@Dantés you see how short the arm measurements were for Liam Eichenberg....he no longer holds a 1st round grade from me. Didn't even flirt with 33
 
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@Dantés you see how short the arm measurements were for Liam Eichenberg....he no longer holds a 1st round grade from me. Didn't even flirt with 33

Yeah, I did. I guess his tendency to punch instead of grapple makes more sense now.
 

tynimiller

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Yeah, I did. I guess his tendency to punch instead of grapple makes more sense now.

100%.

Have you checked into Dan Moore much at all? Came to A&M as a guard, since been a tackle, seems fully capable to compete at all 5 spots. Him and Sadarius Hutcherson are two of my favorite swing guys after say middle of the 4th
 
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100%.

Have you checked into Dan Moore much at all? Came to A&M as a guard, since been a tackle, seems fully capable to compete at all 5 spots. Him and Sadarius Hutcherson are two of my favorite swing guys after say middle of the 4th

Actually, yes. And he is pretty interesting.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers waited until the middle rounds, late day 2 or early day 3, to take OL, as they’ve been so great at that and the needs aren’t necessarily immediate.

Moore would be a fit in that case.

Drew Dalman is a center who really interests me in that range.
 
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