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2019 UDFA NEWS and Signings
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 833816"><p>After this excruciatingly exhustive and exhusting analysis of a place kicker having been overpaid by about $1.5 mil per year in a risk averse approach, I'd like to turn my attention to another player who has been a frequent target in these pages for more substantial cap saving this offseason: Tramon Williams who I will argue is a solid value proposition.</p><p></p><p>What else is there to talk about except the next guy who might bump somebody off the #90 spot the roster on yet another of many rainy days here in Western New York? <img src="/styles/default/xenforo/smilies/thumbsdown.png" class="smilie" loading="lazy" alt=":tdown:" title="Thumbs Down :tdown:" data-shortname=":tdown:" /></p><p></p><p>Now that serious draft capital has been spent on a free safety, do we put Williams on the bubble as I have placed Daniels? I think not now with $3.75 mil in cap savings nor before with pre-roster bonus and pre-Savage cap savings at $4.75 mil.</p><p></p><p>Under the best case scenario, which is what many tend to look at, Williams will take 10% dime snaps behind the the "starting" nickel defense of Alexander-King-Jackson-Amos-Savage. That would make Williams a poor value proposition. But what are the odds of a best case scenario? Non-zero, which is a way of putting a tiny hedge on "not at all".</p><p></p><p>To start, the Lake Woebegone scenario where all the children are above averge, is far from certain:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">King has had performance issues to go along with his chronic shoulder dislocations, the latter perhaps the cause of some (but not all) of the former. I maintain he's mastered little of zone defense play in 2 years. Even if he's able to make every snap, he could be wearing 2 shoulder harnesses which certainly would not help with performance issues. This guy is a big pile of question marks without much rope left.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Jackson was up and down as a rookie, with some question as to whether he's a good fit at either perimeter or slot, kind of a tweener. He needs a second year jump which experience tells us is far from certain.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">I liked the Savage pick at that spot. I see him as the best true back end defender prospect in this draft, a classic free safety type even if he doesn't provide the positional flexibility. We have Amos for that. He's going to play, rookie lumps and all if it comes to that. But there are no guarantees he will not cause sufficient problems that he might not be benched in a strech run. "Stretch run" is perhaps the one overly optimistic phrase in these observations of glasses containing 50% of capacity, not half full or half empty.</li> </ul><p>But lets put performance issues aside and assume all 5 nickel starers perform at the high end of potential. Would Williams still be worth it? Sure he would:</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">What the odds that the 5 nickel starters go 80-for-80 in starts, free of injuries serious enough to put them on the game inactive lists? That's another one of those non-zero probablilities. What's a reasonable number of missed starts? 5 would be very optimistic. Maybe 10 as a baseline? More if somebody goes to IR for a chunk of the season.</li> </ul> <ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Here's the critical point: Williams is the first guy off the bench if an injury hits at 4 of the 5 nickel positions as a decent to serviceable backup. That's pretty valuable on a 45 man game day roster. He's the first backup at perimeter corner and free safety; he'd be the backup at slot corner or take the perimeter spot with one of the perimeter starters moving to the slot. </li> </ul><p>The Packers have cited his intangible value as a seasoned vet in a young position room. Is there anybody else on the defensive side of the ball with the institutional memory of the Super Bowl win? I don't think so. He's also an example to the many young players on the bubble that if you "do things the right way" you have a chance to make it in this league.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 833816"] After this excruciatingly exhustive and exhusting analysis of a place kicker having been overpaid by about $1.5 mil per year in a risk averse approach, I'd like to turn my attention to another player who has been a frequent target in these pages for more substantial cap saving this offseason: Tramon Williams who I will argue is a solid value proposition. What else is there to talk about except the next guy who might bump somebody off the #90 spot the roster on yet another of many rainy days here in Western New York? :tdown: Now that serious draft capital has been spent on a free safety, do we put Williams on the bubble as I have placed Daniels? I think not now with $3.75 mil in cap savings nor before with pre-roster bonus and pre-Savage cap savings at $4.75 mil. Under the best case scenario, which is what many tend to look at, Williams will take 10% dime snaps behind the the "starting" nickel defense of Alexander-King-Jackson-Amos-Savage. That would make Williams a poor value proposition. But what are the odds of a best case scenario? Non-zero, which is a way of putting a tiny hedge on "not at all". To start, the Lake Woebegone scenario where all the children are above averge, is far from certain: [LIST] [*]King has had performance issues to go along with his chronic shoulder dislocations, the latter perhaps the cause of some (but not all) of the former. I maintain he's mastered little of zone defense play in 2 years. Even if he's able to make every snap, he could be wearing 2 shoulder harnesses which certainly would not help with performance issues. This guy is a big pile of question marks without much rope left. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Jackson was up and down as a rookie, with some question as to whether he's a good fit at either perimeter or slot, kind of a tweener. He needs a second year jump which experience tells us is far from certain. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]I liked the Savage pick at that spot. I see him as the best true back end defender prospect in this draft, a classic free safety type even if he doesn't provide the positional flexibility. We have Amos for that. He's going to play, rookie lumps and all if it comes to that. But there are no guarantees he will not cause sufficient problems that he might not be benched in a strech run. "Stretch run" is perhaps the one overly optimistic phrase in these observations of glasses containing 50% of capacity, not half full or half empty. [/LIST] But lets put performance issues aside and assume all 5 nickel starers perform at the high end of potential. Would Williams still be worth it? Sure he would: [LIST] [*]What the odds that the 5 nickel starters go 80-for-80 in starts, free of injuries serious enough to put them on the game inactive lists? That's another one of those non-zero probablilities. What's a reasonable number of missed starts? 5 would be very optimistic. Maybe 10 as a baseline? More if somebody goes to IR for a chunk of the season. [/LIST] [LIST] [*]Here's the critical point: Williams is the first guy off the bench if an injury hits at 4 of the 5 nickel positions as a decent to serviceable backup. That's pretty valuable on a 45 man game day roster. He's the first backup at perimeter corner and free safety; he'd be the backup at slot corner or take the perimeter spot with one of the perimeter starters moving to the slot. [/LIST] The Packers have cited his intangible value as a seasoned vet in a young position room. Is there anybody else on the defensive side of the ball with the institutional memory of the Super Bowl win? I don't think so. He's also an example to the many young players on the bubble that if you "do things the right way" you have a chance to make it in this league. [/QUOTE]
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