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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 833654"><p>That chart shows less of a disparity than I would have expected. Compared to the median at about 83.5%, Crosby has had 3 additional misses out of every 100, or about 1 per year.</p><p></p><p>More interesting, in a "what have you done for me lately" world, Crosby's performance in the last 6 seasons following his dreadful 2012 shows a marked improvement over his first 6 seasons. It would be interesting to see that table reconstructed for the last 6 seasons. Percentages across the league have been trending up forever, but I do not believe as markedly over the last 12 years as we see in Crosby's "first half" vs his "second half".</p><p></p><p><strong>2013 - 2018 Regular Season</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">84.2% which would rank him 18th. all time</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">76.9% from 40-49 yds. with 28.3% of his kicks from that distance</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">64.5% from 50+ with 16.8% of his kicks from that distance</li> </ul><p><strong>2007 - 2012 Regular Season</strong></p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">76.8%</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">70.4% from 40-49 yds. with 27.3% of his kicks from that distance</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">42.4% from 50+ with 16.7% of his kicks from that distance</li> </ul><p>So, besides seeing a marked increase in Crosby's overall percentage in his "second half", his make percentages from longer distances show a marked increase while a slightly higher percentage of his kicks have come from those distances.</p><p></p><p><strong>Outdoors vs. Dome</strong></p><p><strong></strong></p><p>While I don't have "first half" vs. "second half" numbers, according to pro-football-reference.com Crosby's regular season career make % outdoors is 79.9% vs. 84.1% in domes, with a 3 for 5 record in stadiums with retractable roofs:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CrosMa20/splits/" target="_blank">https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CrosMa20/splits/</a></p><p></p><p>Not all outdoor stadiums are created equal, particularly in the south and west, but there does seem to be a Lambeau factor. For what it is worth, Packer opponent FG% over the past 3 years is 74.2%:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-field-goal-conversion-pct?date=2019-02-04" target="_blank">https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-field-goal-conversion-pct?date=2019-02-04</a></p><p><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Playoffs</strong></p><p></p><p>As others have noted, his playoff performance has been impressive. His "first half" shows 10 of 12 for 83% while his "second half" shows a perfect 16 of 16. For his career, he's a perfect 59 of 59 on extra points.</p><p></p><p><strong>Where now, brown cow?</strong></p><p></p><p>Was Crosby overapaid with that 2016 contract? We'd have to say "yes" given the current state of the art and his average pay being in the top ranks. Is the $3 mil cap savings over a minimum salary rookie worth turning the page? On paper, perhaps, given his gross $3.6 mil cap savings would rank 14th. against average salaries in the league.</p><p></p><p>Given his "second half" career performance, what is he worth? For the sake of argument, let's say middle of the pack around $2.0 - $2.5 mil. While $1.0 - $1.5 mil in savings over fair value is nothing to sneeze at, it comes with risks. Considering about 2 undrafted kickers make it in the league per year, there is a lot of trial and error in finding the needles in the haystack while competing with teams with more friendly confines that would be more attractive to prospects.</p><p></p><p>The scouting of kickers appears to have been a fairly primitive affair. The Packers drafted Crosby with the assessment he had a very big leg, failing to account for the fact his college career was at altitude. Tampa drafted Aguayo in the 2nd. round in 2016, with a broad consensus he was the top kicker in the draft, some said one of the best prospects ever, with a high college make %, while failing to consider his odd mechanics and struggles from distance.</p><p></p><p>Without considering who will be on the roster come preseason and how they perform, what would the $1.0 - $1.5 mil savings over "fair value" buy you? Something, but not alot. There's your risk/reward proposition.</p><p></p><p>If Fickens, or somebody else comes along in the mean time, is striping FGs and putting KOs out of the end zone during preseason, then there's a proposition to be seriously considered. But cutting Crosby with the expectation that finding a better value is easy, without being able to tell us who that is, makes for a very risky proposition.</p><p></p><p>I get that we should not have been happy with that 2016 contract. But the adamance with which you want to cut bait without knowing who that replacement might be is simply not justified, particularly in light of Crosby's "second half" performance, playoff record, an evident Lambeau factor and not knowing whether the valued needles in the haystack would want to test their career longevity in Lambeau field.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 833654"] That chart shows less of a disparity than I would have expected. Compared to the median at about 83.5%, Crosby has had 3 additional misses out of every 100, or about 1 per year. More interesting, in a "what have you done for me lately" world, Crosby's performance in the last 6 seasons following his dreadful 2012 shows a marked improvement over his first 6 seasons. It would be interesting to see that table reconstructed for the last 6 seasons. Percentages across the league have been trending up forever, but I do not believe as markedly over the last 12 years as we see in Crosby's "first half" vs his "second half". [B]2013 - 2018 Regular Season [/B] [LIST] [*]84.2% which would rank him 18th. all time [*]76.9% from 40-49 yds. with 28.3% of his kicks from that distance [*]64.5% from 50+ with 16.8% of his kicks from that distance [/LIST] [B]2007 - 2012 Regular Season[/B] [LIST] [*]76.8% [*]70.4% from 40-49 yds. with 27.3% of his kicks from that distance [*]42.4% from 50+ with 16.7% of his kicks from that distance [/LIST] So, besides seeing a marked increase in Crosby's overall percentage in his "second half", his make percentages from longer distances show a marked increase while a slightly higher percentage of his kicks have come from those distances. [B]Outdoors vs. Dome [/B] While I don't have "first half" vs. "second half" numbers, according to pro-football-reference.com Crosby's regular season career make % outdoors is 79.9% vs. 84.1% in domes, with a 3 for 5 record in stadiums with retractable roofs: [URL]https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CrosMa20/splits/[/URL] Not all outdoor stadiums are created equal, particularly in the south and west, but there does seem to be a Lambeau factor. For what it is worth, Packer opponent FG% over the past 3 years is 74.2%: [URL]https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-field-goal-conversion-pct?date=2019-02-04[/URL] [B] Playoffs[/B] As others have noted, his playoff performance has been impressive. His "first half" shows 10 of 12 for 83% while his "second half" shows a perfect 16 of 16. For his career, he's a perfect 59 of 59 on extra points. [B]Where now, brown cow?[/B] Was Crosby overapaid with that 2016 contract? We'd have to say "yes" given the current state of the art and his average pay being in the top ranks. Is the $3 mil cap savings over a minimum salary rookie worth turning the page? On paper, perhaps, given his gross $3.6 mil cap savings would rank 14th. against average salaries in the league. Given his "second half" career performance, what is he worth? For the sake of argument, let's say middle of the pack around $2.0 - $2.5 mil. While $1.0 - $1.5 mil in savings over fair value is nothing to sneeze at, it comes with risks. Considering about 2 undrafted kickers make it in the league per year, there is a lot of trial and error in finding the needles in the haystack while competing with teams with more friendly confines that would be more attractive to prospects. The scouting of kickers appears to have been a fairly primitive affair. The Packers drafted Crosby with the assessment he had a very big leg, failing to account for the fact his college career was at altitude. Tampa drafted Aguayo in the 2nd. round in 2016, with a broad consensus he was the top kicker in the draft, some said one of the best prospects ever, with a high college make %, while failing to consider his odd mechanics and struggles from distance. Without considering who will be on the roster come preseason and how they perform, what would the $1.0 - $1.5 mil savings over "fair value" buy you? Something, but not alot. There's your risk/reward proposition. If Fickens, or somebody else comes along in the mean time, is striping FGs and putting KOs out of the end zone during preseason, then there's a proposition to be seriously considered. But cutting Crosby with the expectation that finding a better value is easy, without being able to tell us who that is, makes for a very risky proposition. I get that we should not have been happy with that 2016 contract. But the adamance with which you want to cut bait without knowing who that replacement might be is simply not justified, particularly in light of Crosby's "second half" performance, playoff record, an evident Lambeau factor and not knowing whether the valued needles in the haystack would want to test their career longevity in Lambeau field. [/QUOTE]
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