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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 779294"><p>A note on TV ratings and revenue:</p><p></p><p>The ratings for the last couple of Olympics were disappointing and the network rebates to advertisers were well publicized. What I don't recall reading is whether the Olympic committee in turn had to pay rebates back to the networks in kind though one would expect networks to try to negotiate that point.</p><p></p><p>I have not heard of NFL networks rebating advertisers and the chart in the following link explains why, at least for the 2016 season:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.recode.net/2017/9/6/16260498/nfl-season-2017-advertising-ads-prices-decreased-viewership" target="_blank">https://www.recode.net/2017/9/6/16260498/nfl-season-2017-advertising-ads-prices-decreased-viewership</a></p><p></p><p>While the regular season ad spend declined in 2017 by 1.2%, that's far less than the 2 year decline in ratings would justify.</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.fiercecable.com/video/nfl-tv-ad-spending-down-1-2-for-2017-season" target="_blank">https://www.fiercecable.com/video/nfl-tv-ad-spending-down-1-2-for-2017-season</a></p><p></p><p>And that's just the regular season. The playoffs and especially the Superbowl may have put the ad spend in positive territory.</p><p></p><p>Even with a decline in viewership, there isn't much argument that the NFL remains the most valued property in all of broadcast media. While the slowing growth in ad spend would be concerning, there isn't much to suggest the NFL is being impacted with yet another $10 billion growth in cap. If memory serves, the players share is heavily skewed toward TV revenue, which further reinforces that picture. Given the high demand for NFL rights, it would not surprise me if the there are no NFL rebate provisions in these contracts if ad spend slides.</p><p></p><p>Cord cutting is such a threat to cable and dish business models, I would not be surprised if they would tolerate this property as a loss leader if it means slowing the bleed in subscribers.</p><p></p><p>Then there are new sources of revenue. As noted in passing in a previous post, new money from on-line and mobile is coming in. Check out this $500 million per year deal reported toward the end of the the 2-year lackluster ratings period:</p><p></p><p><a href="https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-verizon-agree-to-monstrous-new-deal-that-should-make-mobile-streaming-easier/" target="_blank">https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-verizon-agree-to-monstrous-new-deal-that-should-make-mobile-streaming-easier/</a></p><p></p><p>Even if the NFL is paying some rebates to networks they're making it up and then some in other areas.</p><p></p><p>Also, there's the question of whether the NFL will be able to extract licensing fees from the newly authorized nationwide legalized betting. Even if the bookies balk, expect the NFL to take them to court. Extracting an additional pound of flesh may be in the works.</p><p></p><p>Add it all up and it looks like free sailing into the post-2020 CBA.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 779294"] A note on TV ratings and revenue: The ratings for the last couple of Olympics were disappointing and the network rebates to advertisers were well publicized. What I don't recall reading is whether the Olympic committee in turn had to pay rebates back to the networks in kind though one would expect networks to try to negotiate that point. I have not heard of NFL networks rebating advertisers and the chart in the following link explains why, at least for the 2016 season: [URL]https://www.recode.net/2017/9/6/16260498/nfl-season-2017-advertising-ads-prices-decreased-viewership[/URL] While the regular season ad spend declined in 2017 by 1.2%, that's far less than the 2 year decline in ratings would justify. [URL]https://www.fiercecable.com/video/nfl-tv-ad-spending-down-1-2-for-2017-season[/URL] And that's just the regular season. The playoffs and especially the Superbowl may have put the ad spend in positive territory. Even with a decline in viewership, there isn't much argument that the NFL remains the most valued property in all of broadcast media. While the slowing growth in ad spend would be concerning, there isn't much to suggest the NFL is being impacted with yet another $10 billion growth in cap. If memory serves, the players share is heavily skewed toward TV revenue, which further reinforces that picture. Given the high demand for NFL rights, it would not surprise me if the there are no NFL rebate provisions in these contracts if ad spend slides. Cord cutting is such a threat to cable and dish business models, I would not be surprised if they would tolerate this property as a loss leader if it means slowing the bleed in subscribers. Then there are new sources of revenue. As noted in passing in a previous post, new money from on-line and mobile is coming in. Check out this $500 million per year deal reported toward the end of the the 2-year lackluster ratings period: [URL]https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-verizon-agree-to-monstrous-new-deal-that-should-make-mobile-streaming-easier/[/URL] Even if the NFL is paying some rebates to networks they're making it up and then some in other areas. Also, there's the question of whether the NFL will be able to extract licensing fees from the newly authorized nationwide legalized betting. Even if the bookies balk, expect the NFL to take them to court. Extracting an additional pound of flesh may be in the works. Add it all up and it looks like free sailing into the post-2020 CBA. [/QUOTE]
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