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Message: <blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 769509">It's donut making time again with overthecap.com having posted T. Williams contract.  Some refinements and additional color have been added.2018overthecap.com shows $16 mil in cap space for the top 51.  spotrac.com shows $14 mil for the top 51.  These figures are before the following subtractions:- draft class:  $3 mil assuming the top 4 picks replace minimum minimum salary players- players 52 and 53:  $1 mil at the rookie minimum- practice squad:  $1 mil- PUP/IR replacements, injury settlements and replacements of released players with dead cap from now to the end of the season:  $4 mil reserveThis leaves effective remaining cap at $5 - $7 milThere is not sufficient cap for any major FA addition without cutting somebody.2019overthecap.com shows $54 mil in cap space including rollover of the $16 mil noted above assuming a flat cap at $177.2 mil.  spotrac.com shows $41 mil in cap space but evidently does not assume any rollover of the $14 mil 2018 cap space.  Adding that in brings spotrac to $55 mil including rollover.Let's assume a $10 mil bump in the cap for 2019 which brings available 2019 cap space to $64 - $65 milCurrent cap spending for 2019 in either case is for the following 30 players:<a href="https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/green-bay-packers/</a>Here are subtractions from that $64 - $65 mil:- The $9.5 mil in subtractions for 2018 noted above- The same $9.5 mil in subtractions for 2019 (higher or lower depending on draft position and cap/salary schedule increases)- Assuming the top four 2018 picks are still on the roster for 2019, subtract those players cap hits.  Those players rookie cap hits will be $5 mil in 2018 per the scale.  Second year cap hits are typically 25% above the rookie cap hit.  Let's subtract $6.5 mil.- I've included nothing for unlikely to be earned bonuses that are in fact earned- I've included no adjustment for a Rodgers cap hit less than or more than the $21.1 mil he currently counts against 2019.  If a deal gets done, I would think by the second year of a 5 year deal the number would be higher.That brings the available cap to  $38.5 - $39.5 mil with 40 players (including the top 4 picks in the 2018 and 2019 drafts and players 52 and 53 under contract), the PS and the reserve.What needs to be accomplished with that $38.5 - $39.5 mil?13 more players need to be added to the active roster.  They could be cheap rookies or cheap second year players other than the top 4 picks in each of the two previous drafts that are already accounted for.  That would bring the number of first and second year players to 21 with a bunch of cap rolled over.  I find this implausibe except in a rebuilding program.  Or it could be 18 first and second year players and 3 additional significant FA signings sucking up the cap?Bottom line:  The following players in the "win now" 2018 scenario will need to be replaced or re-signed through the next two drafts and with the $38.5 - $39.5 mil in free cap.  If "win now" doesn't work then upgrades, not in-kind replacements, will be necessary:<a href="http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/green-bay-packers/" target="_blank">http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2019/all/green-bay-packers/</a>The key to winning is not free agency where if you're lucky you get performance up to cap cost.  The key to winning is getting a sufficient number of core and impact players out of the previous 4 drafts where those players are perfoming above cap cost.  Thompson's mediocre-to-poor drafts have been an anchor and continue to be so.  And if you're going to go into free agency to fill a couple of key spots, better to sign one or two second contract guys who's value is more likely to persist beyond the immediate needs of the current year.</blockquote>

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