2016 Adjusted Games Lost

[XPack]

I seriously doubt if Rollins and Randall have been healthy all season, the result would have been any better. We are what we are and the injuries only serve to postpone proof the deficiencies of our young CB corps. Rollins, Randall and Gunter all should not be ranked better than #3 CBs in depth charts.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Hmmm..... I thought I saw it the exact same way.
Of course, Thompson should have been clairvoyant and had cheap veteran studs stacked 6 deep at both of those positions that also could play special teams, linebacker and TE as well like the other 31 teams do so well.

Having un-proven UDFA's being forced to play in the secondary as well as at RB didn't help either. When you are looking at having to play Herb Waters, an UDFA rookie WR at CB towards the end of the season, I think it's fair to say you didn't handle the position or the injuries well. Had Montgomery not proven to be adequate in his quick transformation from a WR to a full time RB, I don't even want to think how that position would have panned out by the end of the year. No, you can't have 6 veteran guys at every position, but you can have a few more vets spread across the roster and less UDFA development guys. Also, when a player like Sam Shields goes down early in the season and nobody behind him is picking up the slack, you get busy looking for someone who can.

 

[brandon2348]

He could have went out and got a suitable replacement for Sam Shields after Week 1, but declined to do so. I don't think any of us quite realized how much Shields held that secondary together.

It's simple. Thompson does not exhaust options and resources that potentialy help the team win now. He might just be the most conservative GM in all of sports.

Throw in the fact that he hasn't been drafting that well on the defensive side of the ball over the last few years and you have a talent issue on the roster.

 

[Dantés]

He could have went out and got a suitable replacement for Sam Shields after Week 1, but declined to do so. I don't think any of us quite realized how much Shields held that secondary together.

He could have gotten a #1 corner after week 1?

 

[Dantés]

I seriously doubt if Rollins and Randall have been healthy all season, the result would have been any better. We are what we are and the injuries only serve to postpone proof the deficiencies of our young CB corps. Rollins, Randall and Gunter all should not be ranked better than #3 CBs in depth charts.

Maybe this is true, but I can't figure out why this assumption makes sense. Like, what makes you think this? The way I look at it, they're young, they didn't have a ton of corner experience coming out, they were still well regarded as talents, Randall has a high end athletic profile and Rollins hits the minimums you want, and they played fine as rookies. So why, after injury marred 2nd seasons, does it just make sense to assume they simply stink?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

He could have gotten a #1 corner after week 1?

Depends how you define #1 CB While I didn't need see the need to do that after week #1, it became pretty obvious after the Lions game in week 3, that the Packers were in trouble at the position and whether it was a Free Agent or a Trade, something needed to change.

 

[brandon2348]

Meanwhile the Patriots are interested in Lynch. BB just never stops while Thompson can't find the gas peddle.

 

[Dantés]

Depends how you define #1 CB While I didn't need see the need to do that after week #1, it became pretty obvious after the Lions game in week 3, that the Packers were in trouble at the position and whether it was a Free Agent or a Trade, something needed to change.

So who were they supposed to go get? I mean, people talk about the Eric Rowe trade, but that happened before week 1. I think it's super easy to say "he should have gotten a suitable replacement" but to actually do that in-season is near impossible. Teams aren't throwing corners of that caliber around. I share the opinion that TT should use other avenues to improve the team, but some people have pretty unrealistic expectations.

 

[XPack]

Maybe this is true, but I can't figure out why this assumption makes sense. Like, what makes you think this? The way I look at it, they're young, they didn't have a ton of corner experience coming out, they were still well regarded as talents, Randall has a high end athletic profile and Rollins hits the minimums you want, and they played fine as rookies. So why, after injury marred 2nd seasons, does it just make sense to assume they simply stink?

Fair points. Maybe I should have added a "for now" at the end of the para. What I've seen of Randall for now points to a blow hot blow cold type of player who comes up with a play now and then but sorely lacks consistency. Both him and Rollins have always been a step behind the WRs they were supposed to be covering. Maybe that's due to their lack of experience or maybe they are not just good enough, time will tell. But as of now they definitely are not good enough for primary coverage. I don't expect them to improve drastically this season and should only be used for rotational purposes.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

So who were they supposed to go get? I mean, people talk about the Eric Rowe trade, but that happened before week 1. I think it's super easy to say "he should have gotten a suitable replacement" but to actually do that in-season is near impossible. Teams aren't throwing corners of that caliber around. I share the opinion that TT should use other avenues to improve the team, but some people have pretty unrealistic expectations.

Want my honest answer? At least in regards to the CB spot, TT did absolutely nothing, because he had faith in his current group of CB's. Do you know how I know this? What has he done since the 2016 season to address the need at CB? Davon House isn't that great of an answer IMO. To say he couldn't do anything is far different than he didn't try. While I am open to think that maybe he tried to work a trade for a CB before the Nov. deadline. But given his current stance, I don't think it was on his radar. At least he tried that at RB with grabbing Davis and Michaels, but in the end it boiled down to not having a deeper experienced roster and relying too much on undeveloped inexperienced guys to try and fill holes.

 

[Dantés]

Want my honest answer? At least in regards to the CB spot, TT did absolutely nothing, because he had faith in his current group of CB's. Do you know how I know this? What has he done since the 2016 season to address the need at CB? Davon House isn't that great of an answer IMO. To say he couldn't do anything is far different than he didn't try. While I am open to think that maybe he tried to work a trade for a CB before the Nov. deadline. But given his current stance, I don't think it was on his radar. At least he tried that at RB with grabbing Davis and Michaels, but in the end it boiled down to not having a deeper experienced roster and relying too much on undeveloped inexperienced guys to try and fill holes.

Yes, I think you're right. It would not be his M.O. to be working the phones for a trade. And that's part of where he ought to improve-- using all avenues to try and improve. Don't get me wrong here-- I'm not saying that TT was trying to drum up a trade like a mad man and one just wouldn't materialize.

What I am saying is that the expectation that he would be able find a suitable replacement for a corner of Shields' caliber during the season is quite unrealistic. I mean, the Rowe trade was a big deal by NFL standards and that guy was the Patriot's 3rd cornerback. Where was Thompson supposed to come up with a #1 or anyone even close?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yes, I think you're right. It would not be his M.O. to be working the phones for a trade. And that's part of where he ought to improve-- using all avenues to try and improve. Don't get me wrong here-- I'm not saying that TT was trying to drum up a trade like a mad man and one just wouldn't materialize.

What I am saying is that the expectation that he would be able find a suitable replacement for a corner of Shields' caliber during the season is quite unrealistic. I mean, the Rowe trade was a big deal by NFL standards and that guy was the Patriot's 3rd cornerback. Where was Thompson supposed to come up with a #1 or anyone even close?

This question was debated in a thread during the 2016 season and names of both FA's and potential trades were thrown around. You are right blockbuster big trades are not that common midseason, but just because they aren't doesn't mean you can't. In 1983 the Raiders traded with New England for disgruntled CB Michael Haynes. The trade helped put the Raiders over the top; they won the Super Bowl that season. Was such a trade or free agent available to the Packers? Maybe, maybe not and we probably will never know. But I do know the need to do something was there and so far, TT has shown us that it probably wasn't viewed as a need by him.

 

[Dantés]

This question was debated in a thread during the 2016 season and names of both FA's and potential trades were thrown around. You are right blockbuster big trades are not that common midseason, but just because they aren't doesn't mean you can't. In 1983 the Raiders traded with New England for disgruntled CB Michael Haynes. The trade helped put the Raiders over the top; they won the Super Bowl that season. Was such a trade or free agent available to the Packers? Maybe, maybe not and we probably will never know. But I do know the need to do something was there and so far, TT has shown us that it probably wasn't viewed as a need by him.

We basically agree, but I would just say "maybe, but almost certainly not."

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

We basically agree, but I would just say "maybe, but almost certainly not."

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[Deleted member 6794]

Its not the number of injuries its the number of injuries to a key position. We lost several key players on Defense and we had sub par players at a critical position. That made opposing offenses attack that and had success.

Thompson was responsible for having to play subpar players at cornerback though.

Hmmm..... I thought I saw it the exact same way.
Of course, Thompson should have been clairvoyant and had cheap veteran studs stacked 6 deep at both of those positions that also could play special teams, linebacker and TE as well like the other 31 teams do so well.

The cornerback position was a perceived strength entering the 2016 season but once the only veteran on the unit in Shields was lost for the entire year it became abundantly clear it was in dire need of an upgrade. At that point it was obvious that Thompson standing pat would not cut it this time yet the general manager decided it was the right move. Unfortunately that more than anything else resulted in the team falling short.

But his top two receivers weren't out there for much of the game and were limited by injuries when they were. Towards the beginning of the game, that was the big limiting factor.

Crosby missing a field goal and Ripkowski fumbling were the main reasons the Packers were in a huge hole early in the game.

What I am saying is that the expectation that he would be able find a suitable replacement for a corner of Shields' caliber during the season is quite unrealistic.

It might have been close to impossible to find a suitable replacement for Shields during the season but Thompson should have been able to acquire a veteran that woukd have been an upgrade over Randall, Rollins and Gunter and provided much needed leadership as well.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Here's a look at adjusted games lost by units. Interestingly there were four teams that suffered more injuries in the secondary than the Packers.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit

 

[Poppa San]

Here's a look at adjusted games lost by units. Interestingly there were four teams that suffered more injuries in the secondary than the Packers.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2017/2016-adjusted-games-lost-unit

And NONE of them made the playoffs. The two healthiest teams were in the AFCCG. The top 3 were three of the final four in the AFC. #11 & 12 were one side of the NFC division bracket. I notice a trend.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

And NONE of them made the playoffs. The two healthiest teams were in the AFCCG. The top 3 were three of the final four in the AFC. #11 & 12 were one side of the NFC division bracket. I notice a trend.

Arizona and Washington managed to allow less points than the Packers though. In addition the Giants, Cowboys and Ravens finished the season within the top 10 scoring defenses despite suffering a similar amount of injuries in the secondary.

 

[Poppa San]

How proficient were the Arizona and Washington offenses and what kind of leads were they trying to protect?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

How proficient were the Arizona and Washington offenses and what kind of leads were they trying to protect?

Well, the Packers scored more points in 2016 than Arizona and Washington. According to Football Outsiders Capers' defense took the field with a larger lead on average than both teams.

 

[PikeBadger]

He could have gotten a #1 corner after week 1?

Only in a trade that would have created a gaping hole somewhere else on the roster. There are less than 20 successful #1 corners in the NFL imo. The other 12+ are struggling or failing.

Many here apparently think there is a plentiful supply of them hanging out that know the Packers playbook and can immediately step in. Some of these very same people think we should have had veteran depth sprinkled throughout the roster. And now, these very same people say that there is no one left in FA and will not be others that will become available later when they become cap casualties that can be signed to provide roster depth.

I admit it. I have a very difficult time understanding this line of thinking. That type of rationale doesn't make sense to me. When it's sprinkled in with venom towards Thompson and his philosophy, it sounds more like a vendetta.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Only in a trade that would have created a gaping hole somewhere else on the roster. There are less than 20 successful #1 corners in the NFL imo. The other 12+ are struggling or failing.

Many here apparently think there is a plentiful supply of them hanging out that know the Packers playbook and can immediately step in. Some of these very same people think we should have had veteran depth sprinkled throughout the roster. And now, these very same people say that there is no one left in FA and will not be others that will become available later when they become cap casualties that can be signed to provide roster depth.

Thompson trading for a cornerback during last season wouldn't have created a huge hole on the roster as he could have used draft picks to make a move.

While it might have taken an incoming veteran player some time to learn the Packers defensive scheme that was true for rookies already on the roster as well. It's ridiculous to suggest there wasn't any better option available than Thompson relying on Gunter, Goodson, Hawkins, Dorleant and Waters to fill in.

 

[Dantés]

Thompson trading for a cornerback during last season wouldn't have created a huge hole on the roster as he could have used draft picks to make a move.

While it might have taken an incoming veteran player some time to learn the Packers defensive scheme that was true for rookies already on the roster as well. It's ridiculous to suggest there wasn't any better option available than Thompson relying on Gunter, Goodson, Hawkins, Dorleant and Waters to fill in.

I know you're replying to Pike, but my point was that while there may have been trade options, there was certainly no suitable replacement for Shields. That's an unrealistic expectation. If people think it was a dereliction not to make a trade, that's fine. I don't see how we could know what the options even were. However, I would at least advise some realistic expectations of what could have been had in a trade.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I know you're replying to Pike, but my point was that while there may have been trade options, there was certainly no suitable replacement for Shields. That's an unrealistic expectation.

I agree that it would have been close to impossible to acquire a suitable replacement for Shields but Thompson certainly should have been able to add a cornerback more talented than Gunter and the other JAGs at the position.

 

[PikeBadger]

Thompson trading for a cornerback during last season wouldn't have created a huge hole on the roster as he could have used draft picks to make a move.

While it might have taken an incoming veteran player some time to learn the Packers defensive scheme that was true for rookies already on the roster as well. It's ridiculous to suggest there wasn't any better option available than Thompson relying on Gunter, Goodson, Hawkins, Dorleant and Waters to fill in.

Well we've been through all this before but after week 1 no one knew what Shields status was and I'd be very interested to learn just exactly who is gonna be willing to put their season in jeopardy on September 15 by trading away their #1 CB for draft picks.