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2014 Comp Picks

Discussion in 'Draft Talk' started by TCHickman24, Feb 5, 2014.

  1. TCHickman24

    TCHickman24 Cheesehead

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    When does the league determine each team's comp picks?
    I know GJ will give us one, but who else and the projected round(s).
     
  2. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Last year the NFL announced the compensatory picks in mid-March. I expect the Packers to get a 4th-rounder for Jennings and a 6th-rounder for Walden.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  3. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Though nobody actually knows how...
     
  4. ExpatPacker

    ExpatPacker Cheesehead

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    A 4th rounder would be pretty lame for Jennings since he was a starter for Minn and their leading receiver both in yards and in TDs (tied with Patterson).
     
  5. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    His stats aren't sexy enough, and Min didn't do well enough to land us a third. They might combine Walden and Jennings' scores to give us a 3, but if I was a GM I'd be pissed about that.
     
  6. Stevie DK

    Stevie DK Cheesehead

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    It's very difficult to project comp. picks, a couple of things factor in.

    Free agent lost and acquired in the previous year.
    The 2 large factors are playing time and avg. salary.

    If you look past the FA's signed, Greg should be a 3 rounder, Walden close to a 4th.
     
  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It is tough to predict as it seems like there´s absolutely no information about the formula used to determine these picks. But some factors let me think you´ll be disappointed by the picks the Packers will be awarded:

    The Vikings didn´t make the playoffs and while Jennings led their team in reception, yards and TDs, he finished the season only 39th in receptions, 41st in yards and tied for 57th in TDs in the league.

    Erik Walden played a lot of snaps for the Colts and they made the playoffs, so maybe that will result in a pick better than a 6th rounder.

    On the other hand I expect Seneca Wallace, Scott Tolzien and Matt Flynn, who combined to play nearly 50% of the QB snaps during the regular season, will count toward that formula in some way as well, which won´t help the Packers get great compensation picks.
     
  8. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    These guys won't count for the formula. Only guys that are signed during the free agency period count. Morevover street free agents do not count (so if a guy is cut by one team, and signed by another, that does not count for the formula).
     
  9. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Got a link to that information??? I can't find any stuff about how this formula is set up.
     
  10. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    This how the rules are quoted on a jets fan blog (best I could find within 2 minutes), so not the most reliable source, but the info seems to be correct: http://thejetsblog.com/bga/bga-2014-draft-picks-rundown/

    Summarizing the Rules

    - Teams can receive a maximum of four compensatory picks
    - The maximum value of a compensatory pick is a third rounder
    - Compensatory picks are added at the end of each round
    - You cannot trade compensatory picks
    - Only qualifying UFA losses count towards the calculation of how many picks are owed
    - Qualifying UFA gains are offset against UFA losses and picks are only awarded to the extent that losses exceed gains
    - To qualify, you must be an unrestricted free agent whose contract expired (or, in some cases, was voided) at the end of the previous season. RFA’s, even RFA’s that became UFA’s as a result of not being tendered do not qualify and neither do players who were cut, waived or released.
    - Players signed after the end of the free agent signing period (usually the last week in June, but the lockout pushed this to the end of August in 2011) and players released before week 10 by their new teams do not qualify.
    - The draft round value of the players appears to be mainly based on the annual value of their new contract, but playing time and postseason honors factor into things as well. For example, a player failing to have the required amount of playing time could become non-qualifying or a player with postseason honors might get bumped up to a higher round if they are on the bubble.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  11. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    IIRC its also only guys at the same/similar position: LB, DB, DL, OL, etc
     
  12. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    Position doesn't matter!
     
  13. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Pretty sure it was mentioned somewhere that only signings that affect the position of the player lost count against the comp pick... Could be wrong though

    Also, just wanted to point out nobody gets comps for players they cut.
     
  14. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    There is somebody that has cracked the formula and makes some very accurate predictions. Don't remember where the website was, but IIRC it had to do with the size of the contract signed relative to others at the postion and to a lesser amount, the production during the season.

    For Jennings, contract wise, he fell right inbetween the 3rd round pick and a 4th round pick so it is unknown. Because he was productive, I am hoping we get a 3rd. Its about time we get the higher of the 2 possibilities for once.
     
  15. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    That is wrong. As Luca's post above says, "Qualifying UFA gains are offset against UFA losses and picks are only awarded to the extent that losses exceed gains." The position the UFA plays has nothing to do with it.
    I remember him too and I'm pretty sure he posted on some Packers boards. I looked but can't find the poster or the site. In looking for him I think the consensus is a 4th for Jennings and a 6th for Walden.
     
  16. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    You guys are likely thinking of "Craig", aka "CT17", at bloggingthebeast.com. I posted his work last year. Here's his 2013 scorecard:

    http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

    Evidently this blog is defunct; the guy who ran it now writes for philly.com; the fate of CT17 is not immediately evident.

    Note that Flynn, despite a decent contract from Seattle, only earned a 5th. because he did not play. Evidently, Wells and Saturday washed each other out; Wells playing only 7 games for the Rams before going to IR may have been a factor.

    Update: CT17's name is Craig Turner and he's produced 2014 projections at philly.com. He projects a 3rd. for Jennings and a 6th. for Walden:

    http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/red_zone/2014-NFL-compensatory-pick-projections.html
     
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2014

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