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2013 needs
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<blockquote data-quote="HardRightEdge" data-source="post: 476560"><p>First, there is never just one position of need. The salary cap makes it so. If there's a glaring need at a particular position there might be some stretch, but you don't want to be taking a #60 talent with #30 pick just to fill a hole.</p><p> </p><p>Second, you can't define need just by who's on the roster now. Teams have to plan roster formation a couple of years out, particularly with skill positions. It takes 3 years to properly train a QB (unless you land Andrew Luck) and 2 years to train a WR (Cobb is still missing obvious reads).</p><p> </p><p>It's easy to say we didn't need Cobb when we picked him, but it is not entirely coincidence that going into his third year, when he should be fully formed, Jennings is on the FA bubble.</p><p> </p><p>Just as teams look at salary cap considerations several years out, so too with roster formation considerations, particularly at skill positions and positions filled by aging starters. Cap planning and roster planning go hand in hand.</p><p> </p><p>To take one particular position as an example, NT does not appear to be a particular need for 2013. Raji's up and down but established, Pickett's playing well, and there are more obvious problems elsewhere.</p><p> </p><p>However, Pickett's contract is up after 2013 and he will turn 35 in the 2014 season; Raji's deal is up at the end of 2014 and may command more in the free agent market than his performance justifies. We do not have another true NT on the roster. So, the need for one big man in the next two drafts is likely, two of them in the next three drafts is a strong possibility. Given that decent NTs are hard to find (bulk + strength + agility) and the 3-4 philosophy pivots off the NT position, I would expect the Packers to have their eyes on an NT who, if he falls to a point where he present good value, will be snapped up. Keep in mind that teams scout multiple college classes...if this year looks to be deep in NTs that present good value and the next year not so much, that might be a factor in tipping the scales.</p><p> </p><p>A similar case can be made at TE. Finley's foothold is tenuous given the $, and while the other guys have their virtues, Crabtree and Taylor are not 3 down players, and Quarless can't get healthy and wasn't very impressive when he was. If the Packers decide not to pay Finley's $3.5 mil roster bonus in March, TE will launch toward the top of the needs list. If they pay him, the need is still there, though not so acute, because of his FA status after 2013.</p><p> </p><p>It's a weighting of need (looking out a couple of years), with the value propositions that present themselves at the time. In some cases the cost of filling a secondary need is so prohibitive as to rule out a pick no matter how good the guy is. For example, we will not be taking a QB in the first round, no matter who he is.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="HardRightEdge, post: 476560"] First, there is never just one position of need. The salary cap makes it so. If there's a glaring need at a particular position there might be some stretch, but you don't want to be taking a #60 talent with #30 pick just to fill a hole. Second, you can't define need just by who's on the roster now. Teams have to plan roster formation a couple of years out, particularly with skill positions. It takes 3 years to properly train a QB (unless you land Andrew Luck) and 2 years to train a WR (Cobb is still missing obvious reads). It's easy to say we didn't need Cobb when we picked him, but it is not entirely coincidence that going into his third year, when he should be fully formed, Jennings is on the FA bubble. Just as teams look at salary cap considerations several years out, so too with roster formation considerations, particularly at skill positions and positions filled by aging starters. Cap planning and roster planning go hand in hand. To take one particular position as an example, NT does not appear to be a particular need for 2013. Raji's up and down but established, Pickett's playing well, and there are more obvious problems elsewhere. However, Pickett's contract is up after 2013 and he will turn 35 in the 2014 season; Raji's deal is up at the end of 2014 and may command more in the free agent market than his performance justifies. We do not have another true NT on the roster. So, the need for one big man in the next two drafts is likely, two of them in the next three drafts is a strong possibility. Given that decent NTs are hard to find (bulk + strength + agility) and the 3-4 philosophy pivots off the NT position, I would expect the Packers to have their eyes on an NT who, if he falls to a point where he present good value, will be snapped up. Keep in mind that teams scout multiple college classes...if this year looks to be deep in NTs that present good value and the next year not so much, that might be a factor in tipping the scales. A similar case can be made at TE. Finley's foothold is tenuous given the $, and while the other guys have their virtues, Crabtree and Taylor are not 3 down players, and Quarless can't get healthy and wasn't very impressive when he was. If the Packers decide not to pay Finley's $3.5 mil roster bonus in March, TE will launch toward the top of the needs list. If they pay him, the need is still there, though not so acute, because of his FA status after 2013. It's a weighting of need (looking out a couple of years), with the value propositions that present themselves at the time. In some cases the cost of filling a secondary need is so prohibitive as to rule out a pick no matter how good the guy is. For example, we will not be taking a QB in the first round, no matter who he is. [/QUOTE]
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