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2012 Packer Rookie of the Year?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by I_am_smoked_cheddar, Jul 17, 2012.

  1. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    I believe that Nick Perry will be the 2012 Packer Rookie of the year. He may even vie for NFL Defensive Player of the Year if his sack #'s are high enough. What do you think ?
     
  2. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Worthy
     
  3. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Daniels, McMillian, or Moses as dark horses
     
  4. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    I'll tell you by Game 16 ;) but I think it's between Perry and Worthy.
     
  5. CheeseHead87

    CheeseHead87 Cheesehead

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    Think it'll be Worthy if he can keep his 'motor' going.
     
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  6. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    Nick Perry, 2012 Packer Rookie of the Year, sounds real fine to me. ;)
     
  7. CheeseHead87

    CheeseHead87 Cheesehead

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    Nick Perry, 2012 NFL defensive rookie of the year, that doesn't sound too bad either!
     
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  8. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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  9. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I see Perry going crazy for us right out of the gate like Matthews 3 years ago, including getting some hard-hit crush shots on some marquee QB's which will make an immediate name for himself.

    I see TKO's on Cutler in week 2, Brees in week 4, and Schaub in week 6, the latter 2 games both on primetime TV.

    By then, defenses are forced to worry about him on the same scale as the other side with the Claymaker. That opens things up inside for Jarel Worthy, BJ Raji, Mike Daniels, and then the off-suspensded Anthony Hargrove. By November 25th when we travel to play the Giants, this team is #1 in the NFL in sacks, and they lick their chops heading into the Meadowlands to crush Eli Manning.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012

    On balance, SackSEER believes that 2012 will be a fairly poor year for edge rushers, with only one strong prospect and a slew of likely-to-disappoint high-round picks. Last year, SackSEER 2.0 projected eight edge rushers to hit 20.0 sacks or more, led by Von Miller, who had the seventh highest SackSEER projection of all-time. SackSEER 2.0 only projects four of this year's prospects to reach 20.0 sacks in their first five years in the league -— and they’re not necessarily the four whom you would expect.
    What follows are SackSEER projections and ratings for all of the edge rushers invited to the combine who have recorded pre-draft workout data to-date:

    #1 -Nick Perry, USC

    Proj. Round 1
    Explosion Index +1.25
    SRAM 0.59
    PD Rate 0.16
    Missed Games 1
    SackSEER Projection 28.0
    SackSEER Rating 90.6%
    Although Nick Perry is not an elite prospect in the mold of Von Miller, he is nevertheless a strong prospect that SackSEER likes more than any other in this class, regardless of draft position.
    SackSEER's optimism for Perry comes from his outstanding combine performance, where he scored highly in all of the drills that make up the explosion index. Perry recorded a 4.64 forty-yard dash, a 38.5" vertical leap, and a 10'4" broad jump. Perry's vertical leap and broad jump are a full standard deviation above the mean performance for edge rushers, and his forty-yard dash is nearly as good. These numbers are all the more impressive considering that Perry has above-average bulk at 270 pounds. Interestingly, Perry performed poorly in the short shuttle drill and slightly below average on the three-cone, so he is a great test case for SackSEER 2.0's methodological decision to drop the agility drills.
    Perry's college production is not outstanding, but it is good enough. His sack production came in peaks and valleys: he recorded an impressive 9.0 sacks as a freshman, bottomed out at 4.0 sacks as a sophomore, and bounced back to another 9.0 sack outing as a junior. A great sign of pro success is the ability to dominate early in college, much like Terrell Suggs and Aldon Smith did, but Perry's production is not quite as good as Suggs' or Smith's. Perry's pass defensed rate is just average.

    #2 -Whitney Mercilus, Illinois

    Proj. Round 1
    Explosion Index +0.11
    SRAM 0.56
    PD Rate 0.06
    Missed Games 1
    SackSEER Projection 21.5
    SackSEER Rating 51.3%
    Whitney Mercilus has average-to-good athleticism and no notable off-field or injury issues (unless you count a bizarre weight room accident that took part of his finger). However, the pattern of his production falls disturbingly close to Jamaal Anderson's. Anderson had no sacks as a freshman, four sacks as a sophomore, and then an SEC-leading 13.5 sacks as a junior before Atlanta took him with the eighth overall pick in the 2007 draft. Like Anderson, Mercilus was a non-entity as a freshman and sophomore (one sack each year), but had an amazing junior year, in which he led the NCAA in sacks with 16.0. Another good comparison for Mercilus might be Robert Quinn, who similarly had slightly above-average workouts and only one productive college season.
    Although Mercilus' lack of early career production could be attributable to being stuck behind Clay Nurse on the depth chart, that in and of itself could be part of the problem. Nurse was a marginal NFL talent that went undrafted and has never been any more than a camp body. If Illinois' coaches did not see enough from Mercilus in practice to bench Nurse for him, the chances are good that he was not playing like a future first-round pick.
    SackSEER would have more confidence that Mercilus could replicate his junior year performance at the professional level if his pass defensed rate suggested that his raw sack numbers underrepresented the extent to which he caused problems for opposing quarterbacks. However, Mercilus' pass defensed numbers suggest the opposite: he only defensed two passes in 36 games, which is well below average for a drafted edge rusher.

    #3 -Shea McClellin, Boise State

    Proj. Round 1-2
    Explosion Index +0.24
    SRAM 0.40
    PD Rate 0.16
    Missed Games 2
    SackSEER Projection 20.1
    SackSEER Rating 62.9%
    Heading into the Combine, Shea McClellin was rated as a fourth-round prospect, and he would have been an excellent bargain there. However, McClellin's stock has skyrocketed to the early first-round / late second-round range. McClellin is a nice prospect, but his SackSEER rating is just a little lower than you would like for a player who could go in the first round. Most of his hype has come from his solid 4.63 second forty-yard dash time, but his jumps were less impressive: 31.5" for the vertical and 9'4" for the broad. McClellin has only two missed games, but also has only average production.

    See the guys rated lower: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012
     
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  10. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I'll hold off my projections till after training camp and we get closer to know whose staying and going and cut....I have a dark horse I may pick, just my gut. Perry is almost in my opinion not worth picking because he "should" win it.
     
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  11. VolvoD

    VolvoD Cheesehead

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    i vote with "too early to tell"
     
  12. peteralan71

    peteralan71 Cheesehead

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    From what I see in Perry, he does not seem to round corners very well which he needs when playing against elusive QBs and quick OT's. He also plays very high. I feel like if he could play lower, get his COG lower, he would be much more effective. I really like how Jerel Worthy looks. He is a beast. Very fast off of the ball, great vision, and he tackles THROUGH the player instead of just hitting them. I think Worthy will be effective off the first whistle.
     
  13. DevilDon

    DevilDon Inclement Weather Fan

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    I like Worthy but Perry is going to get more snaps and likely more stats. Gonna take the every down guy.
     
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  14. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    78yuhf.jpg
    Hey, don't give up. Everyone hasn't posted yet!
     
  15. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Barnie, give me the bullet.
     
  16. ExpatPacker

    ExpatPacker Cheesehead

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    A couple of interesting remarks here: http://www.packersnews.com/article/20120719/PKR01/120719090

    "Perry, who’s especially thick in the shoulders and haunches, didn’t look anywhere near as smooth in coverage in non-padded offseason practices as Clay Matthews did as a rookie in 2009. "

    Is that a big concern? Probably not at this point since it's his pass rushing skills that are most important to our defense. I don't think anyone expected Perry to be as good in coverage as Matthews.
     
  17. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    imageskhgg57gf.jpg Firearms can be dangerous in the wrong hands. So let's just nip that in the bud right now !
     
  18. Vltrophy

    Vltrophy Cheesehead

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    I believe Perry as he will get the majority of the snaps. I also think he's going to be workin his tail off to get the system down. W/Perry's help Matthews at least doubles his sacks from last yr while Perry himself gets at least 5 sacks
     
  19. Vltrophy

    Vltrophy Cheesehead

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    nip it in the bud. Be carful who's bud I nip though
     
  20. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    I completely agree. Barnie, put the gun down, your hands are shaking so bad I doubt you could hit me. I'm not asking for the gun, I'm asking for the bullet. The only bullet we let you carry. Even that is too dangerous for you.
     
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  21. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    hvghv6y769.jpg

    Ok, back to the Rookies !!
     
  22. Vltrophy

    Vltrophy Cheesehead

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    If Perry gets at least 5 sacks + forces 2-3 fumbles & even falls on one of them he would have to be DRPOY.
     
  23. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Of course it's too early for this. I'll mention Casey Hayward only because his name hasn't been mentioned. What I like most about what I've read about him is he is described as having great football instincts. There was a reason Thompson traded up into the second round for him. It's crowded at CB ahead of him with Shields and House but I expect he'll get a chance to play in the nickel and dime.

    Regarding Perry I think his success depends upon how well he takes to Greene's coaching and his desire to be great. If those two things are present he's going to be very good/great even if he's not great in coverage. Since he's taking over Clay's spot from last year on the strong side, my guess is his task in coverage would be the TE and with his size I hope they have him "mug" the TE at the LOS a lot. It's a lot easier to cover someone who is on the ground. BTW, for an old-timer like me it's almost unbelievable that a kid 6-3, 270 runs a 4.64 forty.

    Certainly of the rookies, Perry and Worthy will be given every opportunity to start so they're the favorites for Packers rookie honors.
     
  24. I_am_smoked_cheddar

    I_am_smoked_cheddar Guest

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    I've picked Perry to win. Worthy to place. Hayward to show. Get your picks in now !
     

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