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20% Roster Turnover

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by FrankRizzo, Jan 17, 2013.

  1. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Listening to McCarthy's presser the other day and reading thru it, they say they typically have about a 20% roster turnover.
    That's at least 10 spots, maybe closer to 12, 13.
    Pick 12 guys on the roster now who won't be back.

    Jennings, Driver, Saturday are the easiest 3.
    Tons of guys on the IR like Saine, Benson, I don't think they're back.
    Crabtree sucks.
    He's not a good blocker based on the data I saw at Pro Football Focus. And he sure can't catch.
    At least 1 DL will be gone. Zombo and Walden gone.
    ILB? That's an ugly spot for me to look at.


    Which spots do we need upgraded the most?

    Of our preferred starters (and this will include the guys we will get back off IR), here's how I rank them:

    Safety
    ILB
    Center
    DL
    OT

    With Bishop back, and Jerel Worthy back, I think we need upgrades there still, but we tend to only carry 5 DL. We'll have: Raji, Neal, Worthy, Daniels, and Wilson back, or Pickett also. I love Pickett, but he can't move. He just takes up space. He's great in short yardage running situations. Great. But it would be nice to have a guy who can move faster.... at least one of: Daniels, Wilson, Pickett needs to be upgraded.

    Why do some people love Morgan Burnett so much? Is he great at being an in-the-box run stuffer? Obviously not.
    Is he a great ball hawk back there a la an Ed Reed or Nick Collins? I haven't seen that.
    I hold out hope for Jerron McMillian as he's the only guy with a man's build back there.

    But the spark that Vikings rookie Harrison Smith gave that defense this year, we could sure use that. If a solid safety is there in Rd 1, I'd like to see him. We could have gotten LaRon Landry pretty economically last off-season. He's a guy with some physicality to him which this defense, especially backfield, lacks. He's not perfect of course, but he at least is a thumper. And a thumper or two, three, is what the defense needs.

    Bishop is the only thumper we have and it will be nice to have him back.
    That pre-season injury in game 1 in San Diego was nasty, and terrible luck for us. He tore the hamstring.... can he return to 100% ever from that? Not all bad injuries allow you to be back to the same.... I don't know about rookie ILB Terrell Manning. Teddy liked him enough to reach up and go and get him last draft. But he had that weird sickness thing and lost some weight.

    Hawk has been serviceable, reliable. But he's just a body in there. He's never ever made big plays other than one a year maybe.
    Where was he on Kaepernick? Where was Brad Jones? Those guys, neither, are better than "just guys", and neither one has any fire, any intensity.

    Did you used to bitch about Nick Barnett's antics, his sword, his yelling after plays? Me too. But I think we need that, especially at ILB.... in this Capers' 3-4 defense, a lot of pressure falls on those 2 linebackers, and these guys failed big time too often this year, clearly.
    Vontaze Burfict would have been a nice steal last year at this position. A gift almost. An attitude sure, but this defense could use some of that.

    The center position is interesting. Jeff Saturday is on his way to Hawaii to wear the yellow Packers helmet over there. But that will be the last time that he wears it on a field.
    The team seems to like EDS (Evan Dietrich-Smith) as a center.
    Many fans want a new center early, but I suspect the coaches are comfortable going forward with EDS.
    Their OL was not the problem at the end of the year. They ran pretty well, and Rodgers was protected as well as you can hope against the 49ers & Vikings late.

    I like Nick Perry at OLB... physically he's great. Mentally? Not sure. I wish he had the motor, the fire that Matthews does. He could get there. He could become a fixture there a la a Lamar Woodley.
    And I also like Dezman Moses a lot. Erik Walden looks the part, but as ProFootballFocus & FootballOutsiders showed, he was a serious liability there... but then again, he should not have been starting. He should be a backup.
    I would expect, and hope, that he and Franky Zombo are upgraded.

    Here's who I hope we get in the first 5 rounds of the draft to upgrade this roster:

    ILB Alec Ogletree, Georgia; 6-3, 235
    Safety Matt Elam, Florida; 5-10, 202
    DE Bennie Logan, LSU; 6-3, 205
    ILB Jon Bostic, Florida; 6-1, 244
    TE Levine Toilolo, Stanford; 6-8, 265

    Elam is not tall, but he's strong, and a good hitter. He had over 75 tackles each of the past 2 years. He also has 6 Ints the past 2 seasons. We need tackling.

    Our ILB's are shameful as we put Gore, Peterson, and Kaepernick into Canton with our Ole' run defense this year. Good ILB's will stop that. Somewhat. So will a safety-in-the-box.
     
  2. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    You can't say "crabtree sucks" just because he isnt the best blocker out there. The guy plays tough as nails when they give him touches. He runs hard and plays hard, I like that aspect. And for someone who is not in there play after play, he sure does a good job of running his route when asked to do so. If it wasnt for him this season, chalk up a lose to the bears for us.......
     
  3. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    This is mainly why I said that about Crabtree:
    http://packersinsider.com/2013/01/key-upgrades-for-packers-in-2013/

    Of course I don't have the film to evaluate the blocking matchups, but apparently PFF does that?
     
  4. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    13 players on the current roster who won't be on the opening day roster 2013:
    Woodson
    Hawk
    Driver
    Grant
    Jennings
    Saine
    Saturday
    Zombo
    Benson
    Powell
    Nixon
    Miller
    Bostick

    We need offensive linemen, defensive linemen, linebackers, safeties, and a couple of receivers. Personally, I'd draft the best linebacker available, but the best player on the board would work. Thompson knows what he's doing.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  5. Oshkoshpackfan

    Oshkoshpackfan YUT !!!

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    ^ thought AJ Hawk was still under contract for 1 more year?

    IDK about others, but i think he stepped it up a couple of notches this year, he did lead in tackles and was overall productive.
     
  6. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    My guess as to 12 players who won't be on the opening day roster 2013:
    Francois
    JD Williams
    Driver
    Grant
    Jennings
    Saine
    Saturday
    Zombo
    Lattimore
    Starks
    Walden
    Miller
    I would not be surprised if some of these guys don't make it either. Most if not all should be back.
    Kuhn, Brad Jones. Tramon, Woodson, Hawk
    Finley, Benson, Van Rotten, Bush, Harrell
    Crabtree, Boykin, Quarless, Ross, Boykin
    Worthy (depending on severity of leg injury, may be on PUP list)
    Bulaga (depends on recupe time from Hip fracture. PUP list)
    EDS may get a too good to turn down offer to play elsewhere but I doubt it.
     
  7. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    That is a really good list. I agree with Hawk, Driver, Grant, Jennings, Saturday, Benson and Zombo for sure. I could see Woodson staying if he agrees to take a serious pay cut. Starks is always a candidate to be cut.
     
  8. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    3 more years. 1 more before it becomes feasible to release him.

    My guess as to 14 (20% of 70) who will not be on the roster next year:
    1 Donald Driver
    2 Greg Jennings
    3 Cedric Benson
    4 Ryan Grant
    5 Micah Johnson
    6 Jordan Miller
    7 Garth Gerhart
    8 Chaz Powell
    9 Frank Zombo
    10 Sean Richardson
    11 Brandon Saine
    12 Erik Walden
    13 Greg Van Roten
    14 John Kuhn
     
  9. 7thFloorRA

    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    I like Kuhn......but he is a waste of a roster spot. The td's he gets I think anyone could suit up and get. He isn't a very good lead blocker and he can't get it done in short yardage. All he is these days is familiar.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  10. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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    I have to agree. He is not a true lead back. A better 3rd down back should be available. The Packers running game went down hill after they got rid of any true FB on the roster and went with the H-back and Kuhn as the lead blockers.
     
  11. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Good call on Kuhn.
    He'll end up a Steeler I predict.
     
  12. lambeaulambo

    lambeaulambo Cheesehead

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    No one is predicting Tramon Williams will be cut? Based on what I have seen this season, he should be.
     
  13. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    He shouldn't be the #1 corner but he shouldn't be cut either.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  14. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    The Packers' website lists 70 players on the active roster.

    IMO the following players could be gone:

    OL: Saturday (old), OC Garth Gerhart, OG Joe Gibbs, Van Roten or Datko
    TE: Brandon Bostick, Finley ($$), Crabtree, Quarless (recovered?), Taylor or DJ Williams
    WR: Driver (old), Jennings ($$), Boykin
    QB: Harrell or Coleman
    RB: Grant (old), Benson (old), White, Saine, Starks, FB Kuhn (doubt it)
    ST: Crosby (doubt it)
    DL: DT Jordan Miller, Wilson or Neal
    LB: Micah Johnson, Francois, Jones, Zombo, Lattimore, Walden, Hawk (doubt it)
    DB: S Chaz Powell, CB James Nixon, MD Jennings, Richardson, Bush (doubt it), Woodson (doubt it but he's close to retiring)

    That's half of the players on the roster (alternatives like Van Roten or Datko count as one). Obviously most listed will still be on the roster next September. For example, the Packers aren't going to get rid of all 6 TEs on their roster but all are vulnerable IMO.

    They'll have plenty of room to add youngsters and even a veteran FA or two. Last off season they drafted eight players and kept four UDFAs. I think they'll have more room than that this coming season.
     
  15. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    If we get rid of Jennings & Driver, we're down to 3 solid guys in Jones, Jordy, Cobb. As knicked up as Jordy has been, we could be down to 2 a lot of the time.... you have to keep Boykin, as well as Ross.
    It's not like Boykin will cost a lot.
     
  16. JBlood

    JBlood Cheesehead

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    Boykin catches everything within reach. He'll see a lot of time as a wideout next year I suspect.
     
  17. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I hope this doesn't become another Tori Gurley thing
     
  18. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    We don't overreact... Much. Based on what I saw this season he he's one of the better man corners, but really only effective in passing downs. Still his skills are pretty rare, bench him, cut his pay, but don't cut him.
     
  19. HyponGrey

    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    But Boykin beat Gurley, and Gurley blocked kicks
     
  20. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    There is a good reason no one mentioned waiving Tramon Williams: It’s a ridiculous idea. Honestly, I don’t know what you’re watching if you think he should be waived.

    Unless we’re all surprised and somehow the Packers keep G. Jennings, I think there’s a very good chance Thompson will use a pick in the first three rounds on a WR. And he’ll probably pick up a total of two or three, including UDFAs. Jarrett Boykin has good size and potential but that’s all at this point – the league is littered with similar players. IMO he is a long way from securing a roster spot. In spite of the fumbled punt I like what Ross showed – he has a shot too but only that IMO (he should be on my list above). I hope both work like their futures depend on it this off season and I also hope the Packers aren't counting on either.
     
  21. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Obviously correct on Tramon. Now it would be nice to send a message to these thin frail CB's that we need to toughen up, but he's done as good a job on Calvin Johnson, all in all, of anyone who has to face him twice a year.

    Boykin has more than size and potential.
    He's shown something, both in practices and in preseason.
    Remember in week 17, big game, they had him in there and went to him on 4th down.
    They like him.
     
  22. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Boykin appeared in 5 games as a WR, caught 5 balls for 27 yards. While I hope he's the next Jerry Rice, right now all he has is NFL potential. I agree the Packers like him, but remember the Packers were so high on Diondre Borel and Tori Gurley that they increased their pay so they'd stay on the practice squad.
     
  23. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    He was a great kick blocker
     
  24. Poppa San

    Poppa San SB I trophy First of four Staff Member Moderator

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