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15th overall pick
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<blockquote data-quote="Magooch" data-source="post: 991012" data-attributes="member: 17987"><p>I'm sure I'm repeating myself but while it's true there's no "sure things" and no guarantee that player X will be a day one impact player and player Y won't...I don't think it's a stretch to say that Gute will tend to err on the side of "value" or "ceiling" even if it takes a while to get there rather than a player who might be more day one ready who represents less value and/or lower ceiling. </p><p></p><p>Totally a hypothetical but let's pretend you can grade players on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is an all-pro star contributor and 1 is lucky to be a practice squad guy. </p><p></p><p>Now say you've got your eye on two guys in the draft. Player A is currently a 5/10, but you believe he has the potential to be a 9/10 if he's developed right. Player B is currently a 7/10, but his ceiling probably peaks at being an 8/10. Obviously it's just conjecture but IMO Gute would pick "A" over "B" every single time. Naturally "A" is going to have less of an immediate impact but could potentially be developed into a better player and would likely represent the better long-term value when you consider the end product and draft capital invested. "B" will probably be able to contribute more from day one but is already closer to their ceiling and won't improve a ton from where you're getting them.</p><p></p><p>Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong but I do think there's a case to be made when your team is more or less built around a QB like Rodgers who is already getting up there in age it perhaps would have made more sense to shade a little more towards drafting more "Player B" guys rather than the long-term "value" projects. When your star QB is 37, 38, 39, your "window" is already probably fairly small and closing fast and you should probably be in "win now" mode if you wanna maximize that window. And a lot of times that means bringing in players who can provide an immediate short-term impact, even if they don't represent the best value for money/draft investment. </p><p></p><p>Like I said, there are no guarantees, but at the same time I think we all know there are some players who are probably going to be more of a "project" than others. [USER=6578]@tynimiller[/USER] , you are a guy who does a lot of draft analysis/projection, I'm sure you know as well as anyone that there are always going to be guys that you like but can acknowledge they might take some more time and/or coaching/development/etc to "get there" than others. </p><p></p><p>I mean probably a glaring example is of course Love himself. Now if he ends up being our starting QB and turns into a great player, obviously that's a pretty decent "value" investment when you consider it "only" cost a low 1st (and etc) and minimal salary for years of development. But at the same time Love provided no (measurable) impact in the first few years and it's hard to really argue that we couldn't have gotten more immediate impact out of another player. For instance Tee Higgins was available and we needed help bad at WR; he almost certainly would've had a bigger impact than Love for us for the past couple years. But a WR is naturally a lower value commodity than a (potential) franchise QB, should it shake out as such. But on the flip side, if we draft Higgins instead of Love and that's enough to push us to a Super Bowl BUT it means we are in need of a QB a couple years down the line...is it worth it? Most would probably say yes but I guess it's up for debate. And of course that's far from guaranteed either, but hopefully you get the point - it's all that to say that in general I think we could probably all mostly agree that Gute does tend to err on the side of "projects"</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="Magooch, post: 991012, member: 17987"] I'm sure I'm repeating myself but while it's true there's no "sure things" and no guarantee that player X will be a day one impact player and player Y won't...I don't think it's a stretch to say that Gute will tend to err on the side of "value" or "ceiling" even if it takes a while to get there rather than a player who might be more day one ready who represents less value and/or lower ceiling. Totally a hypothetical but let's pretend you can grade players on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is an all-pro star contributor and 1 is lucky to be a practice squad guy. Now say you've got your eye on two guys in the draft. Player A is currently a 5/10, but you believe he has the potential to be a 9/10 if he's developed right. Player B is currently a 7/10, but his ceiling probably peaks at being an 8/10. Obviously it's just conjecture but IMO Gute would pick "A" over "B" every single time. Naturally "A" is going to have less of an immediate impact but could potentially be developed into a better player and would likely represent the better long-term value when you consider the end product and draft capital invested. "B" will probably be able to contribute more from day one but is already closer to their ceiling and won't improve a ton from where you're getting them. Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong but I do think there's a case to be made when your team is more or less built around a QB like Rodgers who is already getting up there in age it perhaps would have made more sense to shade a little more towards drafting more "Player B" guys rather than the long-term "value" projects. When your star QB is 37, 38, 39, your "window" is already probably fairly small and closing fast and you should probably be in "win now" mode if you wanna maximize that window. And a lot of times that means bringing in players who can provide an immediate short-term impact, even if they don't represent the best value for money/draft investment. Like I said, there are no guarantees, but at the same time I think we all know there are some players who are probably going to be more of a "project" than others. [USER=6578]@tynimiller[/USER] , you are a guy who does a lot of draft analysis/projection, I'm sure you know as well as anyone that there are always going to be guys that you like but can acknowledge they might take some more time and/or coaching/development/etc to "get there" than others. I mean probably a glaring example is of course Love himself. Now if he ends up being our starting QB and turns into a great player, obviously that's a pretty decent "value" investment when you consider it "only" cost a low 1st (and etc) and minimal salary for years of development. But at the same time Love provided no (measurable) impact in the first few years and it's hard to really argue that we couldn't have gotten more immediate impact out of another player. For instance Tee Higgins was available and we needed help bad at WR; he almost certainly would've had a bigger impact than Love for us for the past couple years. But a WR is naturally a lower value commodity than a (potential) franchise QB, should it shake out as such. But on the flip side, if we draft Higgins instead of Love and that's enough to push us to a Super Bowl BUT it means we are in need of a QB a couple years down the line...is it worth it? Most would probably say yes but I guess it's up for debate. And of course that's far from guaranteed either, but hopefully you get the point - it's all that to say that in general I think we could probably all mostly agree that Gute does tend to err on the side of "projects" [/QUOTE]
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