Reviewing Thompson's first drafts Steve Lawrence Scout.com
Packers GM Ted Thompson has hit more than he missed in the 2005 and 2006 drafts, especially last year, when he landed four legit starters in the first three rounds. If you’re going to build your team through the draft — making free agency no more than a supplementary way to improve the roster — then you had better be a pretty darned good evaluator of college talent. So, how has Ted Thompson fared during his first two drafts? Good enough that you’d have to say Thompson would be wise to stay course. Certainly, it’s a bit early to call some of the draft picks hits or misses. It’s impossible to say, for instance, whether drafting Aaron Rodgers was wise or foolish since he hasn’t had a chance. Still, it’s interesting to look back at Thompson’s first two drafts.
In 2005:
1st round: Aaron Rodgers, quarterback
2nd round: Nick Collins, safety
2nd round: Terrence Murphy, wide receiver
4th round: Marviel Underwood, safety
4th round: Brady Poppinga, outside linebacker
5th round: Junius Coston, offensive lineman
5th round: Michael Hawkins, cornerback
6th round: Mike Montgomery, defensive end
6th round: Craig Bragg, wide receiver
7th round: Kurt Campbell, linebacker
7th round: Will Whitticker, offensive lineman.
Summary: Of the five players selected in the first four rounds, four remain with the team. Only Murphy, who suffered a neck injury during his rookie season that led to fears about a long-term, catastrophic injury and, therefore, his release, is no longer on the team. Of those five, though, only Collins could be considered at least an average starter today with major upside for the future. The Packers, though, remain high on Rodgers. Poppinga had a decent year as a first-year starter last season, getting better as the year went on. Underwood was challenging Marquand Manuel for a starting job at safety before a knee injury ruined his season before it began. Of the final six picks, only Coston, Montgomery and Whitticker remain on the roster, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Montgomery is the only one to get out of this summer’s training camp. In a nutshell, this class could earn a B grade if most of the “ifs” work out in the Packers’ favor and Montgomery turns into at least a productive situational player. If not, Thompson could be in danger of landing exactly zero above-average NFL starters out of an 11-player class.
2006:
1st round: A.J. Hawk, linebacker
2nd round: Daryn Colledge, guard
2nd round: Greg Jennings, wide receiver
3rd round: Abdul Hodge, linebacker
3rd round: Jason Spitz, guard
4th round: Cory Rodgers, kick returner
4th round: Will Blackmon, defensive back
5th round: Ingle Martin, quarterback
5th round: Tony Moll, offensive lineman
6th round: Johnny Jolly, defensive tackle
6th round: Tyrone Culver, safety
7th round: Dave Tollefson, defensive end
Summary: What a draft, starting with the hard-nosed Hawk. Of the first five picks, four already are at least decent starters. This class would have to get an A-plus if Colledge and Spitz become above-average starting guards and Jennings continues to grow. From what we saw last season, that seems more likely than not. Drafting Cory Rodgers is a black mark — from the first day in camp, even a casual observer could see he couldn’t play — and it remains to be seen whether Blackmon was just snake-bit last year or whether he’s injury prone and, therefore, unreliable. Moll was a steal in the fifth round, even if he never becomes a full-time starter. Jolly and Culver seem to have futures as at least deep backups, and that’s all you can ask for out of sixth-round picks. Finding three bona fide players that late in the draft is what separates an astute evaluator like Thompson from the draftniks and mediocre general managers.
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http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/633212.html
Sydney Speaks! Don't get the wrong idea By Harry Sydney
Though PackerReport.com's Harry Sydney has been critical of Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy for their lack of aggressiveness in free agency this off-season, he explains why he has all the respect in the world for the two as well.
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/632292.html
Sydney Speaks! No one else to blame! By Harry Sydney
PackerReport.com's Harry Sydney firmly believes that the Green Bay Packers should have been a lot more active during the early part of free agency. Sydney explains why this lack of aggressiveness in pursuing players who can contribute will hurt the Packers in the long run.
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/630286.html
Sydney Speaks! Packers need playmakers! By Harry Sydney
PackerReport.com's Harry Sydney assesses Green Bay's free agency thus far and offers his thoughts on where the Green Bay Packers still need the most help.
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http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/633414.html
So what’s next? by Doug Ritchay
PackerReport.com’s Doug Ritchay reviews Green Bay’s puzzling off-season thus far, and offers his take....
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Thompson has to try something brash at some point Packerinsider.com by Cristl [gone]
Before Brett Favre ever played a down with the Green Bay Packers, the mere act of trading for him marked a watershed moment in the franchise's history. It was a bold and daring act unlike anything the Packers had done for 20 years or more. By trading a first-round draft pick for a loose-canon quarterback who had been chosen in the second round the year before and done nothing to increase his value, former general manager Ron Wolf not only staked his future on the deal, but jolted the Packers out of a perpetual state of organizational inertia. Under Tom Braatz, who ran the team's draft for five years before Wolf, there was some progress made on the personnel front.
Braatz missed big on Tony Mandarich, but also drafted Sterling Sharpe in the first round, LeRoy Butler in the second and Don Majkowski in the 10th, just to name a few. In Braatz's last draft, he snagged Tony Bennett, Butler, Jackie Harris and Bryce Paup, an impressive catch all in one year. Braatz had played in the NFL for four years and had spent more than 20 years working in Atlanta's personnel department. He had an eye for talent and also had drafted well for the Falcons, hitting the jackpot on the likes of quarterback Steve Bartkowski, tight end Junior Miller, offensive linemen Bill Fralic and Mike Kenn, and running backs Gerald Riggs and William Andrews, among others.
A perennial also-ran for the first 12 years of their existence, the Falcons made the playoffs three times in a five-year period from 1978-'82 thanks in large part to players that Braatz targeted in the draft. In 1980, the Falcons were young, talented and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, only to get bumped by Dallas, 30-27, in the divisional playoffs. And, thereafter, the Falcons just never got over the hump. A native of Wisconsin, Braatz was conservative by nature and it was reflected in how he ran a franchise. Both in Atlanta and Green Bay, he adhered to a by-the-book, build-through-the-draft philosophy.
In theory, it's the only philosophy that has ever been truly successful in the NFL since the draft came into being in 1936. That said, it's still necessary to deviate from the norm and take some chances on occasion. In other words, a team just can't build through the draft alone. Former Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson once compared the playoffs to poker. "You can not play with scared money," he said. "You play with scared money, you lose." The same applies to stocking a roster. Sometimes a general manager just has to try something brash. And if it means flying in the face of his own blueprint, so be it. Wolf did it at least twice. One was the Favre trade; the other was the Keith Jackson trade. Wolf relinquished a second-round draft pick for Jackson, who said he would rather retire than play in Green Bay and sat out three months before he finally reported. Favre led the Packers to 13 straight non-losing seasons and their first Super Bowl victory in 29 years. And the Packers won Super Bowl XXXI in Jackson's only full season with the team, which might have been more than just a coincidence.
Now might not be the time. Randy Moss might not be the player. And free agency might never be the solution. But at some point in the not too distant future, Thompson might have to target a particular player or two and go for broke. He's entering his third season as general manager and has done a good job of improving the infrastructure of his roster. But that alone won't be enough to win a Super Bowl. Most Super Bowl champions started their uphill climb after years of losing or after hitting rock bottom.
The fortunes of the reigning champion Indianapolis Colts turned around after back-to-back 3-13 seasons in 1997 and '98, the first of which yielded Peyton Manning in the draft. The Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the 1990s after finishing 3-13 in 1988 and 1-15 in 1999, and drafting Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith. It was a 4-12 finish by the New York Giants in 1980 that allowed them to draft Lawrence Taylor and a 3-12-1 finish three years later that led to the selection of fellow linebacker Carl Banks, two moves that helped propel them to Super Bowl victories in 1986 and 1990.
Before winning three Super Bowls in the 1980s, the San Francisco 49ers finished 2-14 in both 1978 and '79. They wasted their No. 1 picks both years, but also uncovered Joe Montana and five solid starters in the two drafts that followed those dismal seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers finished 1-13 in 1969 and took quarterback Terry Bradshaw No. 1 in the following draft. Bradshaw led them to four Super Bowl titles over the next decade.
The 2002 Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers were just six years removed from the last of a string of 14 consecutive losing seasons. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens were a fifth-year expansion team that had never before had a winning season. The 1999 St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl after nine straight losing years, including six in which they won five or fewer games.
The 1996 Packers started their climb four years earlier following a 24-year drought during which they had only five winning seasons. The 1966 and '67 Packers, winners of the first two Super Bowls, still had five key starters, including three Hall of Famers, who were drafted during another of the franchise's dreadful droughts in the 1950s.
There have been a handful of Super Bowl winners that never sank to the depths of the teams mentioned above, but even most of those benefited from a down year and a high draft pick. The 2005 Steelers finished 6-10 two years earlier and drafted quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The New England Patriots, winners of three Super Bowls since 2001, finished 5-11 in 2000 and selected Richard Seymour, their best defensive player during that span, with the sixth pick.
On the flip side, teams that don't sink to the cellar or experience years of losing often get stuck in ruts where they become perpetually mediocre. The Philadelphia Eagles have finished with a winning record in 17 of the last 29 seasons, but haven't won a Super Bowl. True, they fell to 3-13 in 1998 and benefited from drafting Donovan McNabb. But that was one of only two times in the last 11 years that they've had a top 10 draft pick.
The New York Jets last won a Super Bowl following the 1968 season. In the 27 years that the NFL has played a 16-game schedule, dating to 1978 minus two strike-shortened years, the Jets have won between six and 10 games 19 times. The Kansas City Chiefs last won a Super Bowl following the 1969 season. They've won between six and 10 games 20 times in the years of a 16-game schedule.
Both the Jets and Chiefs have had some talented players and also their share of high draft picks. But it's probably instructive that each team has drafted a quarterback in the top 10 only once in more than 35 years. The Chiefs took Todd Blackledge seventh in 1983; the Jets chose Richard Todd sixth in 1976. Blackledge was a bust; Todd had two good years out of six as a starter.
Should the Packers continue to hover between six and 10 wins and not get another crack or two at the top one to maybe five draft picks, Thompson, in all likelihood, is either going to have to be extremely lucky or gamble on some blockbuster move. Should he choose to do so, it won't guarantee success. The Eagles learned that in 2004 when they traded for the league's biggest pain in the you-know-what, Terrell Owens, and spent lavishly to sign free agent Jevon Kearse, although they did come a step closer to winning the Super Bowl.
And let's face it, Wolf was daring but also lucky when he traded for Favre. How many times in league history has a young quarterback with that kind of raw talent ever been available? Thompson doesn't figure to be so lucky. But it also doesn't figure that he can play it safe and only by-the-book year after year and expect to succeed.
Packers GM Ted Thompson has hit more than he missed in the 2005 and 2006 drafts, especially last year, when he landed four legit starters in the first three rounds. If you’re going to build your team through the draft — making free agency no more than a supplementary way to improve the roster — then you had better be a pretty darned good evaluator of college talent. So, how has Ted Thompson fared during his first two drafts? Good enough that you’d have to say Thompson would be wise to stay course. Certainly, it’s a bit early to call some of the draft picks hits or misses. It’s impossible to say, for instance, whether drafting Aaron Rodgers was wise or foolish since he hasn’t had a chance. Still, it’s interesting to look back at Thompson’s first two drafts.
In 2005:
1st round: Aaron Rodgers, quarterback
2nd round: Nick Collins, safety
2nd round: Terrence Murphy, wide receiver
4th round: Marviel Underwood, safety
4th round: Brady Poppinga, outside linebacker
5th round: Junius Coston, offensive lineman
5th round: Michael Hawkins, cornerback
6th round: Mike Montgomery, defensive end
6th round: Craig Bragg, wide receiver
7th round: Kurt Campbell, linebacker
7th round: Will Whitticker, offensive lineman.
Summary: Of the five players selected in the first four rounds, four remain with the team. Only Murphy, who suffered a neck injury during his rookie season that led to fears about a long-term, catastrophic injury and, therefore, his release, is no longer on the team. Of those five, though, only Collins could be considered at least an average starter today with major upside for the future. The Packers, though, remain high on Rodgers. Poppinga had a decent year as a first-year starter last season, getting better as the year went on. Underwood was challenging Marquand Manuel for a starting job at safety before a knee injury ruined his season before it began. Of the final six picks, only Coston, Montgomery and Whitticker remain on the roster, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Montgomery is the only one to get out of this summer’s training camp. In a nutshell, this class could earn a B grade if most of the “ifs” work out in the Packers’ favor and Montgomery turns into at least a productive situational player. If not, Thompson could be in danger of landing exactly zero above-average NFL starters out of an 11-player class.
2006:
1st round: A.J. Hawk, linebacker
2nd round: Daryn Colledge, guard
2nd round: Greg Jennings, wide receiver
3rd round: Abdul Hodge, linebacker
3rd round: Jason Spitz, guard
4th round: Cory Rodgers, kick returner
4th round: Will Blackmon, defensive back
5th round: Ingle Martin, quarterback
5th round: Tony Moll, offensive lineman
6th round: Johnny Jolly, defensive tackle
6th round: Tyrone Culver, safety
7th round: Dave Tollefson, defensive end
Summary: What a draft, starting with the hard-nosed Hawk. Of the first five picks, four already are at least decent starters. This class would have to get an A-plus if Colledge and Spitz become above-average starting guards and Jennings continues to grow. From what we saw last season, that seems more likely than not. Drafting Cory Rodgers is a black mark — from the first day in camp, even a casual observer could see he couldn’t play — and it remains to be seen whether Blackmon was just snake-bit last year or whether he’s injury prone and, therefore, unreliable. Moll was a steal in the fifth round, even if he never becomes a full-time starter. Jolly and Culver seem to have futures as at least deep backups, and that’s all you can ask for out of sixth-round picks. Finding three bona fide players that late in the draft is what separates an astute evaluator like Thompson from the draftniks and mediocre general managers.
_____________________________________________________________
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/633212.html
Sydney Speaks! Don't get the wrong idea By Harry Sydney
Though PackerReport.com's Harry Sydney has been critical of Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy for their lack of aggressiveness in free agency this off-season, he explains why he has all the respect in the world for the two as well.
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/632292.html
Sydney Speaks! No one else to blame! By Harry Sydney
PackerReport.com's Harry Sydney firmly believes that the Green Bay Packers should have been a lot more active during the early part of free agency. Sydney explains why this lack of aggressiveness in pursuing players who can contribute will hurt the Packers in the long run.
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/630286.html
Sydney Speaks! Packers need playmakers! By Harry Sydney
PackerReport.com's Harry Sydney assesses Green Bay's free agency thus far and offers his thoughts on where the Green Bay Packers still need the most help.
______________________________________________________________
http://story.scout.com/a.z?s=61&p=2...tedURL=http://packers.scout.com/2/633414.html
So what’s next? by Doug Ritchay
PackerReport.com’s Doug Ritchay reviews Green Bay’s puzzling off-season thus far, and offers his take....
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Thompson has to try something brash at some point Packerinsider.com by Cristl [gone]
Before Brett Favre ever played a down with the Green Bay Packers, the mere act of trading for him marked a watershed moment in the franchise's history. It was a bold and daring act unlike anything the Packers had done for 20 years or more. By trading a first-round draft pick for a loose-canon quarterback who had been chosen in the second round the year before and done nothing to increase his value, former general manager Ron Wolf not only staked his future on the deal, but jolted the Packers out of a perpetual state of organizational inertia. Under Tom Braatz, who ran the team's draft for five years before Wolf, there was some progress made on the personnel front.
Braatz missed big on Tony Mandarich, but also drafted Sterling Sharpe in the first round, LeRoy Butler in the second and Don Majkowski in the 10th, just to name a few. In Braatz's last draft, he snagged Tony Bennett, Butler, Jackie Harris and Bryce Paup, an impressive catch all in one year. Braatz had played in the NFL for four years and had spent more than 20 years working in Atlanta's personnel department. He had an eye for talent and also had drafted well for the Falcons, hitting the jackpot on the likes of quarterback Steve Bartkowski, tight end Junior Miller, offensive linemen Bill Fralic and Mike Kenn, and running backs Gerald Riggs and William Andrews, among others.
A perennial also-ran for the first 12 years of their existence, the Falcons made the playoffs three times in a five-year period from 1978-'82 thanks in large part to players that Braatz targeted in the draft. In 1980, the Falcons were young, talented and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs, only to get bumped by Dallas, 30-27, in the divisional playoffs. And, thereafter, the Falcons just never got over the hump. A native of Wisconsin, Braatz was conservative by nature and it was reflected in how he ran a franchise. Both in Atlanta and Green Bay, he adhered to a by-the-book, build-through-the-draft philosophy.
In theory, it's the only philosophy that has ever been truly successful in the NFL since the draft came into being in 1936. That said, it's still necessary to deviate from the norm and take some chances on occasion. In other words, a team just can't build through the draft alone. Former Dallas coach Jimmy Johnson once compared the playoffs to poker. "You can not play with scared money," he said. "You play with scared money, you lose." The same applies to stocking a roster. Sometimes a general manager just has to try something brash. And if it means flying in the face of his own blueprint, so be it. Wolf did it at least twice. One was the Favre trade; the other was the Keith Jackson trade. Wolf relinquished a second-round draft pick for Jackson, who said he would rather retire than play in Green Bay and sat out three months before he finally reported. Favre led the Packers to 13 straight non-losing seasons and their first Super Bowl victory in 29 years. And the Packers won Super Bowl XXXI in Jackson's only full season with the team, which might have been more than just a coincidence.
Now might not be the time. Randy Moss might not be the player. And free agency might never be the solution. But at some point in the not too distant future, Thompson might have to target a particular player or two and go for broke. He's entering his third season as general manager and has done a good job of improving the infrastructure of his roster. But that alone won't be enough to win a Super Bowl. Most Super Bowl champions started their uphill climb after years of losing or after hitting rock bottom.
The fortunes of the reigning champion Indianapolis Colts turned around after back-to-back 3-13 seasons in 1997 and '98, the first of which yielded Peyton Manning in the draft. The Dallas Cowboys won three Super Bowls in the 1990s after finishing 3-13 in 1988 and 1-15 in 1999, and drafting Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith. It was a 4-12 finish by the New York Giants in 1980 that allowed them to draft Lawrence Taylor and a 3-12-1 finish three years later that led to the selection of fellow linebacker Carl Banks, two moves that helped propel them to Super Bowl victories in 1986 and 1990.
Before winning three Super Bowls in the 1980s, the San Francisco 49ers finished 2-14 in both 1978 and '79. They wasted their No. 1 picks both years, but also uncovered Joe Montana and five solid starters in the two drafts that followed those dismal seasons. The Pittsburgh Steelers finished 1-13 in 1969 and took quarterback Terry Bradshaw No. 1 in the following draft. Bradshaw led them to four Super Bowl titles over the next decade.
The 2002 Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers were just six years removed from the last of a string of 14 consecutive losing seasons. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens were a fifth-year expansion team that had never before had a winning season. The 1999 St. Louis Rams won the Super Bowl after nine straight losing years, including six in which they won five or fewer games.
The 1996 Packers started their climb four years earlier following a 24-year drought during which they had only five winning seasons. The 1966 and '67 Packers, winners of the first two Super Bowls, still had five key starters, including three Hall of Famers, who were drafted during another of the franchise's dreadful droughts in the 1950s.
There have been a handful of Super Bowl winners that never sank to the depths of the teams mentioned above, but even most of those benefited from a down year and a high draft pick. The 2005 Steelers finished 6-10 two years earlier and drafted quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The New England Patriots, winners of three Super Bowls since 2001, finished 5-11 in 2000 and selected Richard Seymour, their best defensive player during that span, with the sixth pick.
On the flip side, teams that don't sink to the cellar or experience years of losing often get stuck in ruts where they become perpetually mediocre. The Philadelphia Eagles have finished with a winning record in 17 of the last 29 seasons, but haven't won a Super Bowl. True, they fell to 3-13 in 1998 and benefited from drafting Donovan McNabb. But that was one of only two times in the last 11 years that they've had a top 10 draft pick.
The New York Jets last won a Super Bowl following the 1968 season. In the 27 years that the NFL has played a 16-game schedule, dating to 1978 minus two strike-shortened years, the Jets have won between six and 10 games 19 times. The Kansas City Chiefs last won a Super Bowl following the 1969 season. They've won between six and 10 games 20 times in the years of a 16-game schedule.
Both the Jets and Chiefs have had some talented players and also their share of high draft picks. But it's probably instructive that each team has drafted a quarterback in the top 10 only once in more than 35 years. The Chiefs took Todd Blackledge seventh in 1983; the Jets chose Richard Todd sixth in 1976. Blackledge was a bust; Todd had two good years out of six as a starter.
Should the Packers continue to hover between six and 10 wins and not get another crack or two at the top one to maybe five draft picks, Thompson, in all likelihood, is either going to have to be extremely lucky or gamble on some blockbuster move. Should he choose to do so, it won't guarantee success. The Eagles learned that in 2004 when they traded for the league's biggest pain in the you-know-what, Terrell Owens, and spent lavishly to sign free agent Jevon Kearse, although they did come a step closer to winning the Super Bowl.
And let's face it, Wolf was daring but also lucky when he traded for Favre. How many times in league history has a young quarterback with that kind of raw talent ever been available? Thompson doesn't figure to be so lucky. But it also doesn't figure that he can play it safe and only by-the-book year after year and expect to succeed.
