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YOU are Ted Thompson... Trade up/Trade down/stay pat?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by all about da packers, Apr 20, 2007.

  1. all about da packers
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    all about da packers Cheesehead

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    You are Ted Thompson, and it is draft day (Saturady - day 1).

    You covet a player that is sure to go in the top 10 picks. You also think that the middle of round 1 has similar talent as the latter part of round 1 (IE similar types of players can be found from picks 16-28). To make things more interesting, lets say you have found out that the Bills are 100% sure to pick Lynch at #12.

    Do YOU decide to trade up, and throw together multiple picks (this years first, possibly second OR third this year and next year, maybe more) to move up into the top 10 and get a player like Adrian Peterson/Laron Landry?

    OR

    Do YOU decide to trade down, picking up extra day 1 picks (let's say a possible trading partner is the Pats, offering both of their first rounders - #24 and #28) with the hope that you kill two birds with one stone in terms of need positions?

    OR

    Do YOU keep the pick and use it?


    Please do explain why you chose what you did.
  2. Timmons
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    Timmons Cheesehead

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    If I were TT for a day, I'd call Queer Eye for the Ghostly White guy to hook me up with some fashion so I could finally ensnare the interest of a woman.

    Then I'd trade down for more day one picks. I think quantity of day one picks increases your chance of improving your depth, and it's teams with depth that win in the NFL.
  3. Tiger
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    Tiger Cheesehead

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    ROFL...yah i think we are ok we are now, i dont want to use to trade up or down on day 1. We should be able to get what we need with the picks we have.
    Be that Lynch, Miller, Tanard Jackson or Nelson, Pittman, Patrick or whatever 3 guys you want.
  4. Pack93z
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    Pack93z You retired too? .... Not me. I'm in my prime

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    It all depends how the draft unfolds, I personally believe that Johnson will go number one, which opens the door again on the Randy talks.

    If that happens, one of two players are going to slide, Thomas or Peterson in my opinion, depending how far Peterson slides, I might try to move into the late part of the top ten to grab him. I don't see Landry sliding which would fill another huge need. Of course if something really odd happens, where Johnson would fall off, well then go get him. But even a positive drug test won't have him sliding far enough for us to grab him. Other Blue Chip players don't fill a immediate need so I don't see us trading up to get one. If they were to fall to us, well we would take them I would guess.

    The issue I see with us trading down, is how much value are we going to get to move down. NE isn't going to trade both firsts to move up to 16, unless someone is sliding that they want, which they need safeties like us. The middle of round one to early part of round two have players of about equal value in my opinion, so I don't know if there will be trading partners available, again how the draft unfolds.

    To me, I would probably stay put and take the highest rated player on the board, well within reason of need. To garner exta picks or players, somehow I think KGB will be traded someplace on day one. Just have that feeling that someone running a 3-4 in need of some pass rush will make a play for him.
  5. warhawk
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    warhawk Cheesehead

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    I think it is looking increasingly more difficult to trade up and get a decent 2nd pick for doing so.

    Who is going to be there at #16 that would be worth losing a 2nd or 3rd round pick for depending how far the drop is?

    My guess is TT will not find a suitor for our first round pick and will be using it himself. After the first six or seven guys that go the next 25 or so are very close together.

    Trading down looks less likey the closer it gets.
  6. cheesey
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    cheesey Cheesehead

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    Thats the thing with the draft though. You don't really know who is gonna be gone already by the time your pick number comes up. You can't be sure Lynch will be there, OR gone until the day comes. I have NO idea who the Packers are targeting, or if the Moss issue is dead or alive. There are too many missing pieces of the puzzle in my opinion to decide which to do either way right now.
    If i was an insider, and knew what their plan of attack was, then i'd be able to make a decision of which way to go, up, down, or stand pat.
  7. Lare
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    Lare Cheesehead

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    We first need to be realistic, Ted Thompson will never trade up, especially in the first round. Never has, never will, no way, nada, ain't going to happen. So we're left with two possibilities, staying pat or trading down.

    If I had to bet, I'd say TT will stay pat and take the best player available that fits their needs. Forget BPA, it doesn't happen. I think there is a definite difference in talent from the mid-round picks to the late round picks and this player needs to produce in order for the team to improve this year. Taking guys in the first round to sit on the bench is a huge waste of money, TT learned his lesson with Rodgers.

    The only way I see anything different happen is if somebody really wants to move up and snag some player they fell in love with so they offer TT a deal he can't afford to pass up. In that case, I think he'd move down but it would have to be well worth his time.

    I'm guessing TT knows the clock is ticking on his improvement project here. By doing nothing in FA he's placed a lot of pressure on himself to get some production from this draft. As such, I don't think we'll see him trading down as much as we have in the past. Depth isn't going to get this team any more victories and do anything for TT's job security.
  8. Since69
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    Since69 Cheesehead

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    Trade down into the 22 - 28 range, draft S Michael Griffin and use the extra third on QB John Beck or RB Michael Bush.
  9. packedhouse01
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    packedhouse01 Cheesehead

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    Everything depends upon who is gone, or who is still there when it comes to their pick. If it looks like there are players who can play right away at 16 you might want to stay there, if you think you can get the player you want later in the draft, you might be willing to make a trade down and pick up another draft choice or a player. I don't think I'd trade up unless you could move up to the top five.
  10. cheesey
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    cheesey Cheesehead

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    Yup.....thats pretty much what i'm saying.
    I don't think there's much sense in trading up unless you can grab one of the top 5 too. And i really doubt theres a team out there that wants to give up one of those picks. Plus the cost would probably be too high.
  11. uwbadger12000
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    uwbadger12000 Cheesehead

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  12. retiredgrampa
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    retiredgrampa Cheesehead

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    I find it interesting that Corey Williams has yet to be extended. This makes him cheap if he's used in a trade. Lots of teams need an improving DT in their plans. It might be of interest to Carolina(Jenkins) except that they seem to be loaded at DT. I feel that this is the last year that KGB might be of benefit to another team in a trade scenerio. His production is dropping. I'm usually for trading down in a year like this where the talent is level after #10. But the talent available after #10 will likely not improve us enough to impact our 8-8 record. Our #16 leaves us in limbo, IMO, unless a solid S can be drafted. We're screwed at TE now and the draft is sub-par in that area. I like our young talent at WR, believe it or not. RBs aplenty are available in this draft. The OL is key there, as always.
  13. uwbadger12000
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    uwbadger12000 Cheesehead

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    Really? I think it is more likely now.
  14. dhpackr
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    dhpackr Cheesehead

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    Stay at 16 and draft Jarrett
  15. Zombieslayer
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    Zombieslayer Cheesehead

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    Agreed, except we don't need a QB, so I'll go with Griffin and Bush.
  16. porky88
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    porky88 Cheesehead

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    I’ll give two scenarios that I would like to see.

    1st Round

    Draft Marshawn Lynch, RB, California with the 16th pick in the Draft. Doctors seem to think his back will be a non factor so that’s a plus and after the first two backs the drop off is huge.

    Round 2

    Trade Down in Round 2 and pickup an extra 3rd rounder. A team like the Jets would have the ammo to move up for somebody they want.

    With the late 2nd round pick I would select Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware

    Round 3

    With my first 3rd round pick I would use it to select a safety. Either Aaron Rouse of Virginia Tech, Sabby Piscitelli, of Oregon State or Josh Gattis of Wake Forest would be ideal picks. My best guess would be Rouse because he is the most likely of the three to be there in my opinion.

    With my other 3rd round pick I would pick Michael Bush, RB, Louisville if he’s there. With Bush and Lynch the Packers could adopt a Two Back system and they could let Herron or Morency walk. It intrigues me but the upside of having two solid running backs has proven to be tremendous in the NFL. Just look at the four teams who played in the conference championships this year.

    My other scenario which is probably more of the wishful one is

    Send the 16th pick in the Draft and a 3rd round pick to the San Diego Chargers for Running Back Michael Turner and the 30th overall pick. The Chargers would consider parting with Turner if they can get a swap and a 3rd round pick at the same time. I’m not crazy about Turner like some people but he does have the potential to be a very good back. He also ran at Northern Illinois so he’d fit in just fine in the Midwestern culture of Northeast Wisconsin.

    With the 30th pick of the Draft select Eric Weddle, S, Utah. He’s been climbing draft boards like crazy. He very possibly could in the 1st round to a team like the Patriots who like smart and versatile players. For the sake of discussion let’s say he is on the board. I’ll grab Weddle and complete my Defense.

    Round 2

    Trade down in Round 2 and obtain either two 3rds or a late 2nd and a 3rd.

    With the 2nd round pick select Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware.

    3rd Round

    Traded one to the chargers already but we have another one because we made the deal with let's say the Jets.

    Select Rhema McKnight WR Notre Dame. He’s a late 3rd to early 4th rounder in my opinion. People who dislike ND will hate the pick but he caught 15 touchdowns last year and the Packers need someone that can score in the red zone.
  17. warhawk
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    warhawk Cheesehead

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    My point is you need a partner to trade with. Who is going to trade UP for the #16 and what would they be willing to give?

    What I see is that what we can get at #16 is not that much more than what we could get at #22 to #25. If this is true why would a team trade with us and lose a pick doing it?

    I mean if I can see that I'm pretty sure all the GM's out there do as well.

    A very special player is going to have to be sitting there when it's our turn to prompt a team to trade. I was on this bandwagon earlier but looking at it realistically I don't see it happening.
  18. warhawk
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    warhawk Cheesehead

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    And listen to everyone say the Packers made the longest reach of the first round.

    Because that is exactly what that would be.
  19. net
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    net Cheesehead

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    Trade down. Comparable players are available late in round one or round two for both running back and wide receiver.

    There's about 6 'can't miss' types and beyond that, 7-25 are about the same, gradewise.

    Also, the likely Moss deal is part of it as I stated in the "Breaking News" thread.
  20. Timmons
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    Timmons Cheesehead

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    Porky for GM. I like his approach.
  21. spardo62
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    spardo62 Cheesehead

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    Probably trade down. I would only trade up for Peterson or Johnson and this would be too expensive for a team with still many needs. Staying put might be where I end up if a trading partner cannot be found. Ideally, I would drop 5-8 spots in round 1 to pick up an extra 3rd and 4th. This will allow me to further address depth or make a trade for a Moss, etc and not totally empty the cupboard of draft picks.
  22. HatestheEagles084
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    HatestheEagles084 Cheesehead

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    I am Ted Thompson...meaning that I think a lot like he does

    Everyone should know how the draft works by now...some top 10-15 prospect is gonna slip and be available when we are on the clock...Ted knows that a team is gonna want this player (whether it be Alan Branch, Patrick Willis, etc.) should they myseriously fall...and Ted's gonna get us an extra pick...I go the less-hassled route and just draft Reggie Nelson
  23. jhensiak
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    jhensiak Cheesehead

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    What I would do and bet TT will do is 1st rd. take a Strong safety, then the rest of draft best offensive player available while snatching a corner when the opportunity of value arises.
  24. Arles
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    Arles Cheesehead

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    Trade down. Try to get 4 picks in the first day and maybe move one of the thirds for Moss. This draft is very deep from pick 15-90, we should try and get as many choices in that range as we can. I would look at moving down to KC in round 1 (S Nelson, Griffin or WR Bowe) and again down in round 2 (look for RB Brandon Jackson). Then, we could move one of our 3s for Moss (obtained in trade down in round 1) and grab a TE (Ben Patrick or Matt Spaeth) or S if we didn't get one in round 1 (Sabby Piscitelli would be best).

    IMO, here's the perfect draft:

    Trade down to 23 with KC (pick up a 3rd) and take S Michael Griffin
    trade down from 47 to 57 with Philly (they may want to move up and get Leonard). We pick up a 4th and take RB Brandon Jackson.
    With our 3rd rounder, grab TE Ben Patrick.
    Trade the third from KC for Moss

    So, we would come out with Griffin, Jackson, Patrick and Randy Moss after the first day.

    An alternative would be taking WR Dwayne Bowe at 16, trading down for Jackson again and grabbing S Sabby Piscitelli in round 3. That wouldn't be bad either but I like the first case the best.
  25. Arles
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    Arles Cheesehead

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    Well, we got Jackson and Patrick is still on the board. Rouse is very similar to Sabby, so I think we did pretty well.

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