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Would you lose your mind?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by ivo610, Apr 20, 2014.

  1. Dylan Hoppe
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    Dylan Hoppe Cheesehead

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    Just a fun prediction. Pick 8 you'd resign if it was up to you.

    My list:

    Boykin
    Bulaga
    Nelson
    Cobb
    Barclay
    Lattimore
    Flynn
    Raji or guion all depending on this season


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  2. captainWIMM
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    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    There´s no way I would give Raji a long term deal after the way he performed in a contract year in 2013. IMO he´s gone after next season no matter how he ends up playing.
  3. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Boykin is a RFA, so no need to re-sign.
  4. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Ask me after the draft.
  5. captainWIMM
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    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Well, we have to tender him though and if another team signs him to an offer sheet we have to match it.
  6. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    So put a 2nd on him and wish him well.
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  7. Dylan Hoppe
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    Dylan Hoppe Cheesehead

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    Is anyone else considering peppers a FA after this season? I know he's not technically and yes, I know there is some dead money in his deal.. But I think he's basically a FA as much as anyone else just not in literal terms


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  8. captainWIMM
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    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I would be shocked if the Packers bring him back in 2015 for a $12 million salary cap hit.
  9. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    I do not recall. It was maybe 6 or 7 years ago. It could have been bleacher report, but my money would be on packerchatters - some of the regular posters would post 'articles'. I used to post there, but left a long time ago.

    And yes, I do believe the Packers draft BPA.
    Last edited: May 4, 2014
  10. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Purely BPA or how do you define it? I only ask because I don't believe there is a single GM in the league that purely drafts the BPA, nor should there be.
  11. Dylan Hoppe
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    Dylan Hoppe Cheesehead

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    I think TT kind of ranks by position. For example this year, rounds 1-3: Safety, D Line, CB, ILB, OLB, WR,
    TE, Center maybe

    Rounds 4-7: all of the above, plus maybe back up quarterback competition

    He will take the BPA that will still impact the team. Bridgewater could be the BPA when we select in the first but we won't take him because he wouldn't ever impact the team unless we had a catastrophe with Rodgers, (knock on wood)



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  12. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    I don't think Ted ranks WR in the 1st ANY year.
  13. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    I think that any GM who reaches for need in the draft is not a GM for very long. By definition you are filling your roster with inferior players than other teams. If you do that with any regularity, you will quickly have a team that is inferior.

    I think I have described my opinion on what TT's MO is regarding BPA and draft strategies.
  14. Dylan Hoppe
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    Dylan Hoppe Cheesehead

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    Or maybe there's just never a WR outranking the other positions when he's picking in the first. Most WRs who are definite 1st round projections and know it, have a me-first-attitude. That will factor into his teamwork and locker room status which, IMO affects his BPA status. Already having the performers we do on offense we can't afford to have someone who complains about target numbers and catches.


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  15. captainWIMM
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    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It is really not that hard to understand that position of need factors into a draft pick. Otherwise some teams would end up with four or five QBs during some drafts.
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  16. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    Let me ask you, do you believe that the Packers will rank every player from 1-400 and will definitively determine that Player X (CB) ranked #162 is "1" better than Player Y (OT) so Player Y is #163? Do you think they are so methodical and precise in their evaluations that they will assign scores for physical skills, heart, adaptability, leadership, injury risk, and others with a precision to 2 decimal points, so that they can determine a 'score' for Player X at 73.24 which proves he is better than Player Y at 73.16, but not quite as good as Player W at 73.26?

    If you answer 'yes' to the above, then what you are saying is a good point.
    Last edited: May 5, 2014
  17. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    I believe the Packer board looks something like this, organized in 'Talent Tiers'. I have never seen the Packers board, but I have inferred a few things based on interviews over the years.


    Tier 1
    ------------------------
    1. Clowney

    Tier 2
    -----------------------
    2. Mack
    3. Matthews
    4. Robinson
    5. Watkins

    Tier 3
    ---------------------

    6. Mosley
    7. Denard
    8. Barr
    9. Lewan
    10. Donald
    11. Evans
    12. Ebron
    13. Dix

    Tier 4
    -------------------------------
    14. Lee
    15. Beckham
    16. Gilbert
    17. Martin
    18. Nix
    19. Ealy
    20. Carr
    21. Ealy
    22. Pryor
    23. Amaro
    24. Bortles
    25. Fuller
    26 Attachu
    27. Tuitt
    28. Van Noy
    29. Robinson
    30. Shazier


    Tier 5
    -------------------
    20 guys


    Now. At 21 the Packers should be in the midst of Tier 4. All of these players are ranked about the same. If they are selecting, do they take Carr? Or do they take Pryor, a position of greater perceived need? QBs are usually drafted higher than they should, so it is rarely an issue. What if Barr is sitting there at 21 - the last player from Tier 3? Take him! That is BPA! Even though OLB is much lower on the need list than S, MLB, and TE. What if all the players in 3 and above are gone and there are still 10 players from tier 4 available and a team wanting to trade up 7 picks is on the phone? Take it! Unless the 'need' positions are starting to run slim, you maximize value by trading back and you still getting a player of the same value and you still maintain BPA.
  18. captainWIMM
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    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I think that teams rank players first because of their talent and than position of need, scheme fit and character are taken into consideration. So while a player could be more talented than some others (BPA) he could still end up lower on a team's board because of various reasons (BVA).

    I don't think a team has prospects ranked from 1-400, but they will have a pretty detailed grade for everyone on their board.
  19. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    So, you think they rank players independently of scheme and character? I would think the scheme and character are critical elements in their rankings, as well as motor, attitude, etc. It is all a part of determining how good a player is. I would think that scheme and character could change someone from top 10 to mid 3rd round. Something that impactful needs to be considered primarily and not a late 'tweek'.

    It is my contention that 'need' only plays a role, and it should only play a role, when the pick comes up and there are several players ranked equally.

    But whatever. This same conversation has been going on for a few years and we can only speculate. Whether it is semantics or a disagreement, I don't think either of us is going to convince the other one way or the other.

    So with that, take care and after the draft I suspect we will both look at the picks and say, 'See! I was right!'
    :)
  20. captainWIMM
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    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I think this discussion is actually a lot about semantics. I agree that we don't have any idea what's going on inside a draft room and we can only speculate on what's going on.

    We'll revisit the topic on Saturday. ;)
  21. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    I think Ted looks at every prospect, weighs injury, fit, measurables, skillset, etc, and assigns each prospect a point value, a "grade" if you will. Then he takes the prospects that don't fit his standards off the board, and we call the clusters left "tiers".
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  22. Carl
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    Carl Cheesehead

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    Why do you think they have Mosley so high?
  23. HyponGrey
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    HyponGrey Caseus Locutus Est

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    Because he's solid at everything but catching the football, very complete player. The only thing keeping him out of the top 15 is a shoulder injury.
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  24. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    I just threw names on there to illustrate talent tiers.
  25. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Here’s the best evidence that the pick of Aaron Rodgers was a value pick much more than a need pick presented by someone in the war room, Andrew Brandt. http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-war-rooms/
    If Thompson had viewed backup QB as an immediate or critical need there would be no reason for him to wait 10 minutes – he would have jumped at the chance to grab Rodgers. Brandt tells us there was one player from the top-20 tier left at pick #24. It was not unanimous in the room that Rodgers should be the pick but it was Thompson who had the “true trust The Board moment”.

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