Would you lose your mind?

Dylan Hoppe

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Barclay
Boykin
Bulaga
Bush
Cobb
Fynn
Guion
Harris
House
Kuhn
Lattimore
Nelson
Raji
Richardson
Sherrod
R. Taylor
T. Williams

Just a fun prediction. Pick 8 you'd resign if it was up to you.

My list:

Boykin
Bulaga
Nelson
Cobb
Barclay
Lattimore
Flynn
Raji or guion all depending on this season


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D

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Just a fun prediction. Pick 8 you'd resign if it was up to you.

My list:

Boykin
Bulaga
Nelson
Cobb
Barclay
Lattimore
Flynn
Raji or guion all depending on this season

There´s no way I would give Raji a long term deal after the way he performed in a contract year in 2013. IMO he´s gone after next season no matter how he ends up playing.
 

Dylan Hoppe

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Is anyone else considering peppers a FA after this season? I know he's not technically and yes, I know there is some dead money in his deal.. But I think he's basically a FA as much as anyone else just not in literal terms


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Is anyone else considering peppers a FA after this season? I know he's not technically and yes, I know there is some dead money in his deal.. But I think he's basically a FA as much as anyone else just not in literal terms

I would be shocked if the Packers bring him back in 2015 for a $12 million salary cap hit.
 

AmishMafia

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Who are you talking about? And do you think Thompson drafts the BPA?
I do not recall. It was maybe 6 or 7 years ago. It could have been bleacher report, but my money would be on packerchatters - some of the regular posters would post 'articles'. I used to post there, but left a long time ago.

And yes, I do believe the Packers draft BPA.
 
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TJV

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And yes, I do believe the Packers draft BPA.
Purely BPA or how do you define it? I only ask because I don't believe there is a single GM in the league that purely drafts the BPA, nor should there be.
 

Dylan Hoppe

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Purely BPA or how do you define it? I only ask because I don't believe there is a single GM in the league that purely drafts the BPA, nor should there be.

I think TT kind of ranks by position. For example this year, rounds 1-3: Safety, D Line, CB, ILB, OLB, WR,
TE, Center maybe

Rounds 4-7: all of the above, plus maybe back up quarterback competition

He will take the BPA that will still impact the team. Bridgewater could be the BPA when we select in the first but we won't take him because he wouldn't ever impact the team unless we had a catastrophe with Rodgers, (knock on wood)



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HyponGrey

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I think TT kind of ranks by position. For example this year, rounds 1-3: Safety, D Line, CB, ILB, OLB, WR,
TE, Center maybe

Rounds 4-7: all of the above, plus maybe back up quarterback competition

He will take the BPA that will still impact the team. Bridgewater could be the BPA when we select in the first but we won't take him because he wouldn't ever impact the team unless we had a catastrophe with Rodgers, (knock on wood)
I don't think Ted ranks WR in the 1st ANY year.
 

AmishMafia

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Purely BPA or how do you define it? I only ask because I don't believe there is a single GM in the league that purely drafts the BPA, nor should there be.

I think that any GM who reaches for need in the draft is not a GM for very long. By definition you are filling your roster with inferior players than other teams. If you do that with any regularity, you will quickly have a team that is inferior.

I think I have described my opinion on what TT's MO is regarding BPA and draft strategies.
 

Dylan Hoppe

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I don't think Ted ranks WR in the 1st ANY year.

Or maybe there's just never a WR outranking the other positions when he's picking in the first. Most WRs who are definite 1st round projections and know it, have a me-first-attitude. That will factor into his teamwork and locker room status which, IMO affects his BPA status. Already having the performers we do on offense we can't afford to have someone who complains about target numbers and catches.


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And yes, I do believe the Packers draft BPA.

It is really not that hard to understand that position of need factors into a draft pick. Otherwise some teams would end up with four or five QBs during some drafts.
 

AmishMafia

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It is really not that hard to understand that position of need factors into a draft pick. Otherwise some teams would end up with four or five QBs during some drafts.
Let me ask you, do you believe that the Packers will rank every player from 1-400 and will definitively determine that Player X (CB) ranked #162 is "1" better than Player Y (OT) so Player Y is #163? Do you think they are so methodical and precise in their evaluations that they will assign scores for physical skills, heart, adaptability, leadership, injury risk, and others with a precision to 2 decimal points, so that they can determine a 'score' for Player X at 73.24 which proves he is better than Player Y at 73.16, but not quite as good as Player W at 73.26?

If you answer 'yes' to the above, then what you are saying is a good point.
 
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AmishMafia

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I believe the Packer board looks something like this, organized in 'Talent Tiers'. I have never seen the Packers board, but I have inferred a few things based on interviews over the years.


Tier 1
------------------------
1. Clowney

Tier 2
-----------------------
2. Mack
3. Matthews
4. Robinson
5. Watkins

Tier 3
---------------------

6. Mosley
7. Denard
8. Barr
9. Lewan
10. Donald
11. Evans
12. Ebron
13. Dix

Tier 4
-------------------------------
14. Lee
15. Beckham
16. Gilbert
17. Martin
18. Nix
19. Ealy
20. Carr
21. Ealy
22. Pryor
23. Amaro
24. Bortles
25. Fuller
26 Attachu
27. Tuitt
28. Van Noy
29. Robinson
30. Shazier


Tier 5
-------------------
20 guys


Now. At 21 the Packers should be in the midst of Tier 4. All of these players are ranked about the same. If they are selecting, do they take Carr? Or do they take Pryor, a position of greater perceived need? QBs are usually drafted higher than they should, so it is rarely an issue. What if Barr is sitting there at 21 - the last player from Tier 3? Take him! That is BPA! Even though OLB is much lower on the need list than S, MLB, and TE. What if all the players in 3 and above are gone and there are still 10 players from tier 4 available and a team wanting to trade up 7 picks is on the phone? Take it! Unless the 'need' positions are starting to run slim, you maximize value by trading back and you still getting a player of the same value and you still maintain BPA.
 
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Let me ask you, do you believe that the Packers will rank every player from 1-400 and will definitively determine that Player X (CB) ranked #162 is "1" better than Player Y (OT) so Player Y is #163? Do you think they are so methodical and precise in their evaluations that they will assign scores for physical skills, heart, adaptability, leadership, injury risk, and others with a precision to 2 decimal points, so that they can determine a 'score' for Player X at 73.24 which proves he is better than Player Y at 73.16, but not quite as good as Player W at 73.26?

If you answer 'yes' to the above, then what you are saying is a good point.

I think that teams rank players first because of their talent and than position of need, scheme fit and character are taken into consideration. So while a player could be more talented than some others (BPA) he could still end up lower on a team's board because of various reasons (BVA).

I don't think a team has prospects ranked from 1-400, but they will have a pretty detailed grade for everyone on their board.
 

AmishMafia

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I think that teams rank players first because of their talent and than position of need, scheme fit and character are taken into consideration. So while a player could be more talented than some others (BPA) he could still end up lower on a team's board because of various reasons (BVA).

I don't think a team has prospects ranked from 1-400, but they will have a pretty detailed grade for everyone on their board.
So, you think they rank players independently of scheme and character? I would think the scheme and character are critical elements in their rankings, as well as motor, attitude, etc. It is all a part of determining how good a player is. I would think that scheme and character could change someone from top 10 to mid 3rd round. Something that impactful needs to be considered primarily and not a late 'tweek'.

It is my contention that 'need' only plays a role, and it should only play a role, when the pick comes up and there are several players ranked equally.

But whatever. This same conversation has been going on for a few years and we can only speculate. Whether it is semantics or a disagreement, I don't think either of us is going to convince the other one way or the other.

So with that, take care and after the draft I suspect we will both look at the picks and say, 'See! I was right!'
:)
 
D

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But whatever. This same conversation has been going on for a few years and we can only speculate. Whether it is semantics or a disagreement, I don't think either of us is going to convince the other one way or the other.

So with that, take care and after the draft I suspect we will both look at the picks and say, 'See! I was right!'
:)

I think this discussion is actually a lot about semantics. I agree that we don't have any idea what's going on inside a draft room and we can only speculate on what's going on.

We'll revisit the topic on Saturday. ;)
 

HyponGrey

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I believe the Packer board looks something like this, organized in 'Talent Tiers'. I have never seen the Packers board, but I have inferred a few things based on interviews over the years.


Tier 1
------------------------
1. Clowney

Tier 2
-----------------------
2. Mack
3. Matthews
4. Robinson
5. Watkins

Tier 3
---------------------

6. Mosley
7. Denard
8. Barr
9. Lewan
10. Donald
11. Evans
12. Ebron
13. Dix

Tier 4
-------------------------------
14. Lee
15. Beckham
16. Gilbert
17. Martin
18. Nix
19. Ealy
20. Carr
21. Ealy
22. Pryor
23. Amaro
24. Bortles
25. Fuller
26 Attachu
27. Tuitt
28. Van Noy
29. Robinson
30. Shazier


Tier 5
-------------------
20 guys


Now. At 21 the Packers should be in the midst of Tier 4. All of these players are ranked about the same. If they are selecting, do they take Carr? Or do they take Pryor, a position of greater perceived need? QBs are usually drafted higher than they should, so it is rarely an issue. What if Barr is sitting there at 21 - the last player from Tier 3? Take him! That is BPA! Even though OLB is much lower on the need list than S, MLB, and TE. What if all the players in 3 and above are gone and there are still 10 players from tier 4 available and a team wanting to trade up 7 picks is on the phone? Take it! Unless the 'need' positions are starting to run slim, you maximize value by trading back and you still getting a player of the same value and you still maintain BPA.
I think Ted looks at every prospect, weighs injury, fit, measurables, skillset, etc, and assigns each prospect a point value, a "grade" if you will. Then he takes the prospects that don't fit his standards off the board, and we call the clusters left "tiers".
 

Carl

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Or maybe there's just never a WR outranking the other positions when he's picking in the first. Most WRs who are definite 1st round projections and know it, have a me-first-attitude. That will factor into his teamwork and locker room status which, IMO affects his BPA status. Already having the performers we do on offense we can't afford to have someone who complains about target numbers and catches.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I believe the Packer board looks something like this, organized in 'Talent Tiers'. I have never seen the Packers board, but I have inferred a few things based on interviews over the years.


Tier 1
------------------------
1. Clowney

Tier 2
-----------------------
2. Mack
3. Matthews
4. Robinson
5. Watkins

Tier 3
---------------------

6. Mosley
7. Denard
8. Barr
9. Lewan
10. Donald
11. Evans
12. Ebron
13. Dix

Tier 4
-------------------------------
14. Lee
15. Beckham
16. Gilbert
17. Martin
18. Nix
19. Ealy
20. Carr
21. Ealy
22. Pryor
23. Amaro
24. Bortles
25. Fuller
26 Attachu
27. Tuitt
28. Van Noy
29. Robinson
30. Shazier


Tier 5
-------------------
20 guys


Now. At 21 the Packers should be in the midst of Tier 4. All of these players are ranked about the same. If they are selecting, do they take Carr? Or do they take Pryor, a position of greater perceived need? QBs are usually drafted higher than they should, so it is rarely an issue. What if Barr is sitting there at 21 - the last player from Tier 3? Take him! That is BPA! Even though OLB is much lower on the need list than S, MLB, and TE. What if all the players in 3 and above are gone and there are still 10 players from tier 4 available and a team wanting to trade up 7 picks is on the phone? Take it! Unless the 'need' positions are starting to run slim, you maximize value by trading back and you still getting a player of the same value and you still maintain BPA.

Why do you think they have Mosley so high?
 

TJV

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Here’s the best evidence that the pick of Aaron Rodgers was a value pick much more than a need pick presented by someone in the war room, Andrew Brandt. http://mmqb.si.com/2014/05/07/nfl-draft-war-rooms/
A true trust The Board moment came in the drafting of Aaron Rodgers.

In 2005, we had approximately 20 players rated above the first-round line. When we arrived at our pick, at No. 24, the only name left above that line was Rodgers, who played the same position as one of the most durable players in NFL history: Brett Favre. … As we stared at Rodgers’ name, there were murmurs in the room from those concerned with the short-term, realizing we may well use our first-round pick on a player who would probably not get in a game that year (or perhaps the next, or even the year after that … or possibly never in a Packers uniform). …Ted wanted to see if an offer for extra picks would come while we were on the clock. The room and the phone lines were eerily silent—with all eyes on Ted and on me holding the phone—as everyone waited for the decision. Finally, after 10 minutes that seemed like 10 hours, Ted gave the go-ahead: We were taking Aaron.
If Thompson had viewed backup QB as an immediate or critical need there would be no reason for him to wait 10 minutes – he would have jumped at the chance to grab Rodgers. Brandt tells us there was one player from the top-20 tier left at pick #24. It was not unanimous in the room that Rodgers should be the pick but it was Thompson who had the “true trust The Board moment”.
 
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