Will Defense improve enough?

[13 Times Champs]

We will disagree about them being a decent defense last year and thats what you are saying until the cows come home. I know what I saw and I watched every game. No amount of spin will change my mind. The Packer defense was terrible. Even Tramon Williams says they were a terrible defense.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...fident-packers-terrible-defense-will-improve/

 

[ivo610]

13th actually, according to this article http://smartfootball.com/stats/the-...ds-than-theyve-gained-but-what-does-that-mean

Great article.

 

[milani]

If Harbaugh will turn Alex Smith loose with all those weapons the 9ers could be as good or better this year.
They will be tough to contend with. They stop the run, they rush the passer and they punish you.

Our D has a long way to go. No Nick Collins is a very big hole to fill. A 50% Tramon Williams won't cut it.
Will we get any pass rush this season? Even though we sat out horses in the Lion finale last season the defense looked abysmal and very undisciplined. Lots of after the whistle nonsense. The Giant Hail Mary said it all.

We still have to score lots of points to win. ARod has to stay healthy with no Flynn behind him. And without Grant the tandem of Saine and Lewis will have step up to the NFL level. New bodies on the O-Line leave some question marks.

 

[bozz_2006]

The exact same thing happened with the Saints and Patriots last year. Teams were forced to pass pass pass against them too. It's not a coincidence. Just because you know something is coming doesn't mean you're going to stop it all game long. Pass plays tend to be big plays. If the other team hits on 2 or 3 of those (which is much easier when the defense is playing to the sidelines to keep the other team from running out of bounds to stop the clock), suddenly your defense looks a lot worse than it is. If you have a mind for statistical analysis, have a read:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/12/epx.html#more

Yep, and their defenses didn't get the job done either. I feel like you meant for this to refute my argument, but I think it reinforces my argument. Or maybe I misunderstood you?

 

[ivo610]

If Harbaugh will turn Alex Smith loose with all those weapons the 9ers could be as good or better this year.
They will be tough to contend with. They stop the run, they rush the passer and they punish you.

Our D has a long way to go. No Nick Collins is a very big hole to fill. A 50% Tramon Williams won't cut it.
Will we get any pass rush this season? Even though we sat out horses in the Lion finale last season the defense looked abysmal and very undisciplined. Lots of after the whistle nonsense. The Giant Hail Mary said it all.

We still have to score lots of points to win. ARod has to stay healthy with no Flynn behind him. And without Grant the tandem of Saine and Lewis will have step up to the NFL level. New bodies on the O-Line leave some question marks.

The 9ers lack an elite QB. It's been awhile since one has gone to the SB. Is the defense able to carry him like Balt and Tampa did early last decade? Guess well find out.

 

[HyponGrey]

If Harbaugh will turn Alex Smith loose with all those weapons the 9ers could be as good or better this year.
They will be tough to contend with. They stop the run, they rush the passer and they punish you.

Our D has a long way to go. No Nick Collins is a very big hole to fill. A 50% Tramon Williams won't cut it.
Will we get any pass rush this season? Even though we sat out horses in the Lion finale last season the defense looked abysmal and very undisciplined. Lots of after the whistle nonsense. The Giant Hail Mary said it all.

We still have to score lots of points to win. ARod has to stay healthy with no Flynn behind him. And without Grant the tandem of Saine and Lewis will have step up to the NFL level. New bodies on the O-Line leave some question marks.

1. Who's Lewis?
2. You sir have little to no confidence in the decision making ability of our team's leaders and in the ability of our coaches to develop players. Grant was mediocre, and Flynn deserved his shot.
3. You worry too much. It's a game, one you personally cannot control. I'm already strapped into this roller coaster, and I'm pretty sure they won't stop the ride for me to jump ship, so it seems I'm stuck. Might as well enjoy the ride.

The grammar police just gave me a ticket for comma abuse...

 

[GreenBlood]

Yep, and their defenses didn't get the job done either. I feel like you meant for this to refute my argument, but I think it reinforces my argument. Or maybe I misunderstood you?

Yes. You misunderstood. What you fail to recognize is how teams change how they play defense after a game is generally in the bag and out of reach (which happened frequently for the three aforementioned teams.) The priority becomes killing the clock and you do that defensively by denying the sidelines. In doing so, you tend to leave the middle open for some cheap yards. It's that simple. Not sure why you're so confused about it. That's defense 101, my friend. If you want to know how good a defense is or isn't, you judge it by how it performs when the game is still in question and in those circumstances, we were pretty much middle of the pack.

 

[GreenBlood]

If Harbaugh will turn Alex Smith loose with all those weapons the 9ers could be as good or better this year.

Alex Smith isn't a guy you want to "turn loose." They tried that for 5 years and results were not good. They improved last year because Harbaugh reigned him in. There's a reason their offense runs through Gore.

 

[Jules]

God I hope so.

And really thats all I can say at this point lol.

 

[Jules]

I don't even think it has to be as dramatic an improvement as some might think. Sure it was a huge drop off from 2010 to 2011.....clearly. But, I don't think they need to be the Niners defense or anything. Besides, I would not expect that to happen. If it did then the Packers might slide right into the SB and win it without blinking.

A top 20 D right now would seriously please me and more pressure on the QB.

I have little to no doubt the Packers will be in the playoffs barring major injury btw and I think they should be a top 2 seed. Just that the defense will probably determine if they are heading to New Orleans or getting bounced early again by some sneaky team who catches fire at the right time. (which happens more often then not lately in the NFL)

 

[bozz_2006]

you judge it by how it performs when the game is still in question and in those circumstances, we were pretty much middle of the pack.

Which is good enough for you? What confuses me is how strongly you are defending the group. Give me all the stats you want, our guys didn't pass the eye test. No pressure, broken coverages, miscommunication, missed tackles; and not just in garbage time.

 

[TJV]

We've beaten this to death or nearly so but from some of posts on this thread I think this bears repeating. As I remember it there was only one Packers fan after last season that argued the Packers defense was good or above average. (I searched for the thread he started and couldn't find it, but as I remember it he linked to one site and his conclusions were over-the-top in favor of the Packers' 2011 defense). Other than that single exception, I don't remember another Packers fan suggesting the Packers defense doesn't have to improve. I believe the argument GreenBlood is advancing, which the link he provided backs up, is not that the Packers defense was good, just that it wasn't the worst in the league by any meaningful measure. And IMO no matter how often it is used, yards surrendered by itself is not a meaningful overall measure of a defense. If only one measure has to be used, it should be points surrendered because that's how the outcome of games are determined. Also IMO it's meaningful that every website I've seen that crunches stats comes to the same conclusion: The Packers' defense was bad but not the worst. And yes, that's not even a "small comfort"; it's no comfort at all but IMO it happens to be true.

I'm not sure how to define "Significant improvement", but looking at the difference in terms of total defense…

The first thing that came to mind was what Justice Potter Stewart wrote regarding hard-core ***********: He wrote he wouldn't attempt to define it, but "I know it when I see it." I think we'll see it early with better consistent pressure on the QB.

Beyond knowing it when we see it, statistically I think (and of course hope) we'll see a reversion to the mean under Capers. His Packers defenses have been 7th, 2nd, and 19th in points surrendered in his three regular seasons. His Ds have forced 30, 25, and 31 INTs, 10, 8, and 7 fumbles. Opponent's QB ratings (OQBR) have been 74.9 (6th in the league), 67.3 (2nd in the league), and 80.5 (9th in the league). (I added the league ranking for OQBR because it's not a stat often quoted).

Average all those numbers together and you get: About 9th in points surrendered, 28-29 INTs, about 8 fumbles recovered and a OQBR of about 74. If that happens, points surrendered will obviously be in the top 10, and I'll bet so will total turnovers and OQBR. If the offense stays healthy, that'll be good enough. IOW, the D doesn't have to be the best its been under Capers, it "just" has to be its average with him as DC.

 

[bozz_2006]

The eye test is what I keep going back to, Jack, and what I'm looking for is a defense that can be counted on to bail out the offense if they have to. We didn't see that last year at all. After week 4 or 5, did any of you feel like you could count on the D for a winning performance? I know I didn't.

You can't expect any offense, even as one as amazing as last year's squad, to post 35 points or more every single week. And when it mattered most, against the Giants, the D gave up 37. That's a losing effort, even if our offense would have performed well.

 

[AmishMafia]

The eye test is what I keep going back to, Jack, and what I'm looking for is a defense that can be counted on to bail out the offense if they have to. We didn't see that last year at all. After week 4 or 5, did any of you feel like you could count on the D for a winning performance? I know I didn't.

You can't expect any offense, even as one as amazing as last year's squad, to post 35 points or more every single week. And when it mattered most, against the Giants, the D gave up 37. That's a losing effort, even if our offense would have performed well.

I'm just kind of getting curious.

I believe Greenblood and TJV are saying that the defense is not the worst in the NFL.

Are you arguing that? Saying they played poorly and can't be relied on for a winning performance - isn't an issue. I'm sure Green and TJV are with you on that.

 

[bozz_2006]

I'm not saying they're the worst in the league. The post you quoted has been my point consistently. I suppose you could take away that I think we were the worst in the league by my post saying "we basically have nowhere to go but up." I didn't mean to imply that relative to the rest of the league, there's no way any team could be worse than us.

I meant that I don't see how our guys could possibly play worse than last year, with all the talent we have. They won't allow themselves to play worse. Hence, nowhere to go but up. If so, sorry for the confusion.

 

[GreenBlood]

Which is good enough for you?

I didn't say that. I was merely saying our defense was mediocre, but not terrible like you think.

What confuses me is how strongly you are defending the group. Give me all the stats you want, our guys didn't pass the eye test. No pressure, broken coverages, miscommunication, missed tackles; and not just in garbage time.

Lead the league in turnovers, top 5 in starting field position for our offense. WINS AND LOSSES.

 

[SpartaChris]

It's simple: We were not elite, nor were we as horrible as some like to think. We did some thing very well and other things we sucked at. We were, for all intents and purposes, average.

Thus endeth the discussion.

 

[longtimefan]

It's simple: We were not elite, nor were we as horrible as some like to think. We did some thing very well and other things we sucked at. We were, for all intents and purposes, average.

Thus endeth the discussion.

that was easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[13 Times Champs]

that was easy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wanna bet?

 

[Rocky11]

I think it came down to 3rd down last year. Our defense could not get off the field. That is why people are saying "to the eye". Third down is always a critical down and we failed a lot of the time on third down.

 

[DoddPower]

My biggest point about the 2011 Packer defense is that they were not a championship defense. OK, fine, whatever, we can argue they weren't the worst in the league, weren't horrible, etc. etc. etc. None of that ultimately means much to me, though. I want/expect a championship defense (which doesn't have to be truly elite for this team, thanks to the offense. Just much better). It was painfully obvious that if the offense had a bad day, the defense wasn't likely to bail them out (although I don't think any of us expeted the type of performance the offense gave in the playoffs).

So ultimately, a mediocre defense doesn't comfort me much more than being a horrible defense (although I do tend to lean towards Tramon Williams perception of a "horrible" defense). Anything else is just something to debate and discuss while sitting at home and watching the playoffs instead of rooting for the Packer's in the Super Bowl.

I've said repeatedly I expect them to be much improved in 2012. Unfortunately, that doesn't mean anything for the 2011 season, either.

 

[FrankRizzo]

Our obvious improvements appear to be in the pass-rush area. We don't know what we will get at safety back there in place of Collins, but if the pass rush is good like we hope & expect, it will make the jobs of the DB's a lot easier in the back end.

This is why I am really hoping Anthony Hargrove beats Goodell and gets his suspension at least reduced. Hargrove has the intensity that we wish guys all had for us.

Mike Daniels and Jarel Worthy will add some spark from the DL position, and we hope and expect Nick Perry, and maybe that other guy Moses, can add another force at OLB to help Matthews....

I have pretty high expectations here... I think Thompson has done his job. Now it's up to Capers, Trgovic, Greene, and the players to do their job.

 

[757Niner]

My take on our offense is pretty much your take on your defense. We have nowhere to go but up. I dont expect us to finish as one of the worst offenses again this year. I think a complete off-season will do wonders for that side of the ball.

 

[757Niner]

Alex Smith isn't a guy you want to "turn loose." They tried that for 5 years and results were not good. They improved last year because Harbaugh reigned him in. There's a reason their offense runs through Gore.

That's not entirely true. Alex lead six 4th quarter comebacks last year. We had no problem putting the ball in Alex's hand with the game on the line and plays to be made. What Jimbaugh did was the same thing he did at Stanford. Power run game, timely passing, and a good, physical defense. Our offense wont change much, if at all. Jimbaugh had the best QB in college in Luck and he still ran more than he threw. That's who he is....a ball-control kind of coach. Doesn't matter who the QB is. I expect the conserative philosphy on 3rd down to change with the full playbook installed but overall we'll still be the same offense you saw last year. Maybe a few new wrinkles but the same philosphy will apply.

 

[GreenBlood]

That's not entirely true. Alex lead six 4th quarter comebacks last year.

That stat never impressed me. Rodgers didn't have a single 4th quarter comeback last year. But there's a good reason for that.