When will Packer fans learn?

[13 Times Champs]

didnt their defense get much worse in 2011? I mean you might as well list Babin as well. But if the product on the field is a disaster what difference does it make?

As did ours.

 

[ivo610]

As did ours.

???
The discussion was the impact the Free Agents had on the Eagles, while successful individually as a whole they were a disaster, so your response doesnt really seem to fit.

 

[13 Times Champs]

???
The discussion was the impact the Free Agents had on the Eagles, while successful individually as a whole they were a disaster, so your response doesnt really seem to fit.

Well then maybe this does:
From the Green Bay Press Gazette:
"This season(i.e 2011), according to STATS, Jenkins had 17½ knockdowns and hurries, which ranked No. 7 among defensive tackles.

“(Jenkins’) ability to get after the passer is a statistic that’s underrated,” linebacker Desmond Bishop said. “(Sacks are) one of the biggest correlations between winning and losing, close to turnovers. (His absence) kind of took away from Clay’s production and the production of the defense as a whole.”

He did have a positive impact on the Philly defense and his loss was a negative impact on ours.

 

[AmishMafia]

Taking a look at Free Agency:

Plus
Provides a player at a position of need
Known commodity of football performance (although if its the first big payday there is danger of 'easing up' or 'freeman-ing it'

Negative
Stunts growth of youth by taking away snaps
Economics: TT is competing against teams that have to turn a profit. Signing FAs generates excitement and ticket sales. A FA is worth more to Washington or Philly.
Cap limit, in a cap limity economy this reduces your options for other positions
Disrupts chemistry - players will want money based on bar set by FA
Unknown commodity - locker room character - why exactly did his former team not resign him? Draft allows you to rid yourself of bad team mates before too much is invested.

Its not impossible, but you have to be extremely selective. Who are 2 of the Packers team leaders? Pickett and Woodson, 2 free agents and very high character guys. I don't think they come available very often. In Oakland Al was senile at the point he let Woodson go. In St Louis they had a regime change and Pickett was miscast. He also was drafted very young and still developing.

I think what fans of FA signings don't get is the importance of chemistry/team work in the success of a team. They see the talent of a TO and they imagine him on the field. What they don't see is the discention and animosity he created within the team. I believe every team he went to after SF; Cowboys, Eagles, and Bengals all did worse after signing him. Yet his numbers weren't bad with those teams. So, on the surface, FA looks like a good solution, in practice, the negatives far outweigh the positives.

TT has built a Superbowl champion and a team that went 15-1. We are all dissappointed in not winning the SB and in the performance of our defense. Scrapping the method that got us to this point is utterly foolish. Folks must remember that the Lombardi Dynasty did not win every game or even every championship. And that was when there were only 14(?) teams competing. Winning is not a simple task in this NFL. We don't need to knee jerk after a stumble. I know 'worst pass defense in NFL history'. But 2010 was the #3(?) ranked defense with nearly the same personel.

You can throw out examples either way for teams and FA. But I think the most successful teams in the past 10 years rarely sign FAs. The example of NE is interesting. They dove in big a few years back with Moss and a few others. Had a great season but lost the SB. Since then, they have been loading up on draft picks. Trading players like Cassell and the DT for picks. Trading back and picking up more picks (thanks for CM3 you idiots!), and now they are having success again.

In short, it should be business as usual for TT. FA is very risky and more often than not, makes a team worse. Packers are in an excellent situation with a very bright future using the proven TT system.

 

[El Guapo]

There have been some great points made. First, Reggie White was the blockbuster trade that started off the free agency era. However, Wolf was a middle-of-the-road FA player after that big signing. Sherman was a moron. TT did bring in two fantastic free agents in Woodson and Pickett. Those guys were just like that Patriots mold, of good players for the right price.

I get the feeling in this thread, that (like politics) people are indirectly accusing one another of being either totally for the big splash in free agency or completely tight pursed. The reality is that all of us fall somewhere in the between. TT certainly falls more to the tight purse side, but he does make moves.

In the early years of TT, I argued with a recognizable Press-Gazette sportswriter about how to use free agency. His argument prior to that 2007 season was that you a team needed to use free agency to keep the fan base happy when the team is bad. TT proved him wrong. However, the sportswriter's other comment was that Ron Wolf was a master at plucking mid-season free agents off the market and filling holes that developed during the year. He was correct.

Howard Green is a great example of TT following in Wolf's footsteps last year. The flip side of the coin would be to argue about his lack of going after a RB - the Marshawn Lynch scenario. TT prefers to force his draft picks to step up versus throwing money at short-term solutions. I think that you'll see GB make a move in free agency, but it won't be too major. He's got to see the right price and the right player for it to happen. You can't force it if the right players aren't available...and that might be what gets other GM's into trouble. Forcing a FA move for the fans because their is a personnel hole, versus only doing it if you can find the right player.

 

[13 Times Champs]

There are plenty of guys who hit the free agent market that are high character guys. I'm sure a list of those type of guys can also be started. How about this Justin Smith guy that plays for the 49ers for a start. You can also get problem players through the draft. Many times these young guys are immature and full of themselves. Some here readily point the finger at Finley as an example.

The point is the two are no different if you do your homework and go after high character guys. I believe the draft is the primary way to build a team but ignoring free agency is not utilizing an important tool available. It has been shown that bringing in a Woodson and a Pickett pays huge dividends.

 

[AmishMafia]

13, what FAs did you want to sign last year? A cb? An olb? An OT? Would the packers have won the SB if they did? I'm not so sure. With the way we were decimated by injuries, character and chemistry were vital. Who is not going to get extended this year because of those lost cap dollars? Would any of the teams FAs be wanting more because of the FA money those signings got? Would Raji want to rework his deal because your free agent is making 2x what he is? Would there be an iota of dissention among the players of jealousy and an attitude of an outsider who is jumping in now for the success but wasn't here for the building? Those feelings and attitudes exist.

 

[JoshuaRHuffman]

They need to worry about re-signing their guys first. Then they can worry about free agents with whatever money they have leftover.

 

[ivo610]

Well then maybe this does:
From the Green Bay Press Gazette:
"This season(i.e 2011), according to STATS, Jenkins had 17½ knockdowns and hurries, which ranked No. 7 among defensive tackles.

“(Jenkins’) ability to get after the passer is a statistic that’s underrated,” linebacker Desmond Bishop said. “(Sacks are) one of the biggest correlations between winning and losing, close to turnovers. (His absence) kind of took away from Clay’s production and the production of the defense as a whole.”

He did have a positive impact on the Philly defense and his loss was a negative impact on ours.

Again you fail to address how to weigh individual stats in the grand scheme of having terrible defense. If player x goes to the Texans and is a pro bowler but the team turns into a terrible defense is that really a positive?

Desmond Bishops opinion is noted but I take a players opinion with a grain of salt. Most of them have X's and O's knowledge but very little idea of what it takes to build a winner and let their emotions guide them. Payton Manning is a good example recently.

 

[13 Times Champs]

Again you fail to address how to weigh individual stats in the grand scheme of having terrible defense. If player x goes to the Texans and is a pro bowler but the team turns into a terrible defense is that really a positive?

Desmond Bishops opinion is noted but I take a players opinion with a grain of salt. Most of them have X's and O's knowledge but very little idea of what it takes to build a winner and let their emotions guide them. Payton Manning is a good example recently.

Well I'll take a players opinion every time over a poster. You ask what Jenkins contributed to the Eagles and I told you what it was. He was a productive player for them and I gave you his stats for 2011. So as far as I'm concerned I've addressed your comment and trying to draw a nebulous connection to the entire Eagles defense doesn't work for me. He did his part for them as he had for us. Carry on.

 

[13 Times Champs]

13, what FAs did you want to sign last year? A cb? An olb? An OT? Would the packers have won the SB if they did? I'm not so sure. With the way we were decimated by injuries, character and chemistry were vital. Who is not going to get extended this year because of those lost cap dollars? Would any of the teams FAs be wanting more because of the FA money those signings got? Would Raji want to rework his deal because your free agent is making 2x what he is? Would there be an iota of dissention among the players of jealousy and an attitude of an outsider who is jumping in now for the success but wasn't here for the building? Those feelings and attitudes exist.

I wanted them to keep Cullen Jenkins.

 

[Southpaw]

Taking a look at Free Agency:

Negative
Economics: TT is competing against teams that have to turn a profit. Signing FAs generates excitement and ticket sales. A FA is worth more to Washington or Philly.

I don't get what this has to do with anything

Signing a Free Agent will only turn a profit if that player is attributing to your team winning. And a Free Agent who can help your team win is not a bad thing. A free agent's worth is based on what he does for your team on the field.

Cap limit, in a cap limity economy this reduces your options for other positions

Once again Free Agency is gone about different ways by organizations.

When people on here think of Free Agency after seeing what Ted likes to do, they think of Free Agency as this kiss of death.

People here like the think of FA involves finding the best player available in Free Agency and regardless of his off the field issues, whether he fits into their scheme or hew old he is and they pay him a ridiculous amount of money.

But not every team does this.

You can still sign Free Agents to your squad, that can help your team and not have to pay very much. We like to pride our organization on having a great eye for talent, but yet we still look at Free Agency like we are emptying our pockets and killing our team and our future.

Does anybody see what the Patriots do? They build through the draft and sign cheap Free Agents that deliver for their team and they aren't burning money, killing their locker room or giving up their draft picks.

Disrupts chemistry - players will want money based on bar set by FA

Once again, this is false and really only applies to the BPA in Free Agency. Not every player in Free Agency is going to be demanding a big contract and if you are a good negotiator you can get them at a reasonable price.

Plus, if you have a winning team or your team is going places, you have a higher chance of getting a player at a lower price.

Players go to the Redskins to get paid, not to play football. The Redskins suck, but Free Agents know that Dan Snyder will pay them whatever they want if they sign there.

Players know that if they sign with the Patriots or Packers, they know they are going to be part of a winning organization that has a high probability of winning a superbowl and thus, I think more players would be willing to negotiate

Unknown commodity - locker room character - why exactly did his former team not resign him? Draft allows you to rid yourself of bad team mates before too much is invested.

How are Free Agent additions any more of unknown commodities than Draft Picks?

If anything you'll know more about a Free Agent than a Draft Pick. At least Free Agents are used to a professional NFL locker rooms.

Some college players coming into the pro's don't know how to handle adjusting to the Pro's.

And once again a good talent scout will know how a player will fit into your team, whether he is a team player, has a good attitude or what have you

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

While Reggie White was a home run, were all the other players considered great pick ups? Fast forward to now, where does Howard Green land? He was very important to the SB last season in a couple games but has been for the most part, useless this season

Howard Green wasn't a free agent signing... They guy was picked up midseason due to injuries. That's like saying Erik Walden was a free agent signing.

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

Not trying to speak for anyone else but Walker was one of the worst Free Agent signings in history (Oakland)

We can't take Al Davis serious (RIP). He drafted JaMarcus Russel because he could throw a ball 50 yards from his knee.

 

[AmishMafia]

I don't get what this has to do with anything
Signing a Free Agent will only turn a profit if that player is attributing to your team winning. And a Free Agent who can help your team win is not a bad thing. A free agent's worth is based on what he does for your team on the field.

Its really simple.
A player is available who is good. The Packers can sign him and he will provide a small boost in the power rankings. The Redskins can sign him and he will provide the same small boost AND the excitement will sell 2000 season tickets at $2.5k each or about $5M per year added income. The Packers are sold beyond the expected lifetime of this player, let alone his football playing days. There is no added income for the Packers. To whom is this player worth more? Packers or Redskins?

You can still sign Free Agents to your squad, that can help your team and not have to pay very much. We like to pride our organization on having a great eye for talent, but yet we still look at Free Agency like we are emptying our pockets and killing our team and our future.

I don't think a low priced FA can come on this team and be much of an improvement.

Does anybody see what the Patriots do? They build through the draft and sign cheap Free Agents that deliver for their team and they aren't burning money, killing their locker room or giving up their draft picks.

Yes, I have seen what the Patriots have done. They went after a lot of FAs a while back. They slowed down their FA acquisitions and they have improved.

I don't watch much Patriot football, but here are what I believe are the starters or 'stars': Brady, Green-Ellis, Welker, Gronkowski, Hernandez, Mankins, McDonald, Light, Soldier, Vollmer, Brace, Ellis, Wilfork, Mayo, McCourty, Molden, Mark ANderson, and Spikes.

Of these only Anderson and Ellis were FAs - to the best of my memory. All the stars, Brady, Gronk, Hernan, Mankins, Wilfork, Mayo, McCourty are all draft picks. Welker, of course, was a trade.

Their FAs of the past year or so Ochosinco, Moss, Hayensworth, ? ? ? are either not with the team anymore or playing much.

How are Free Agent additions any more of unknown commodities than Draft Picks?

If anything you'll know more about a Free Agent than a Draft Pick. At least Free Agents are used to a professional NFL locker rooms.

College kids new to a program are screened well through the interview process. Those who TT is wrong about, get cut. It is a huge difference if you have a young NT come in and start complaining about the system. It is another matter if you sign Al Hayensworth and he comes in and starts whispering things about the practices being to hard; how this player or that is getting screwed on thier contract, how . . . . Yes, you can cut him, but already the seeds of dissension are sown.


We probably are not going to agree on this issue, and that all right by me. I am very happy with how TT has put together this team. There are at least 25 teams' fans who would swap rosters or front offices in a heart beat. The other 6 are delusional.

 

[JacobInFlorida]

I wanted them to keep Cullen Jenkins.

I wanted them to keep him too, but I understand why they didn't. Jenkins had hard time playing 16 games in a season. That takes value away from him. They thought the best value was with the replacements they had. Obviously they overestimated the replacements. With the cap carry over this year into next and so many of our young players due for paydays, it made sense to try everything to get the most value.

 

[ivo610]

We can't take Al Davis serious (RIP). He drafted JaMarcus Russel because he could throw a ball 50 yards from his knee.

Several scouts have said Russell was the best work out they had ever seen. After him I will never put weight into a workout unless the player shows up drunk or horribly out of shape.

 

[ivo610]

Howard Green wasn't a free agent signing... They guy was picked up midseason due to injuries. That's like saying Erik Walden was a free agent signing.

I believe he was technically a FA but the player is irrelevant, I'm just wondering a player in that situation, almost opposite of Cullen Jenkins, where do you put him at? A good signing or a bad signing? Not very clear cut for me but wondering your thoughts

 

[ivo610]

Well I'll take a players opinion every time over a poster. You ask what Jenkins contributed to the Eagles and I told you what it was. He was a productive player for them and I gave you his stats for 2011. So as far as I'm concerned I've addressed your comment and trying to draw a nebulous connection to the entire Eagles defense doesn't work for me. He did his part for them as he had for us. Carry on.

Where did I ask for stats? Yeah I can google as well as the next guy. I didn't ask what he did I wanted to know if in your opinion it's still a success if the offense or defense gets much worse with a players signing.... But I think you were just trying to say you value the stats more so than his impact directly to the W Column. Carry on...

For me there are several posters opinions I value more than any of the current players. Maybe thats Favres fault though, his GM like comments always looked terrible a few years later. we also have some excellent posters around here, to give credit where credit is due.

 

[ExpatPacker]

Packers have too many of there own young players who will need to be resigned in the next 2 years. TT will not pursue any notable FA's this year. He needs to hit some home runs in the draft this year. The pass rush HAS to be improved.

And what if that isn't possible through the draft alone? If we can do a sign-and-trade with Flynn and if we can package some late-round draft picks for earlier ones, then we may be able to get what we want through the draft. The key word is "if". The Packers do not have the personnel right now to fill the many holes in the defense. DE (Neal, etc), OLB (Walden), ILB (Hawk), Safety (Peprah), CB (Williams)--all 5 are weaknesses and the only place where we have players ready to step in are at ILB, Francois or DJ Smith.

Sure, you can always dream that we'll get an OLB, and DE and a safety or CB from the draft who will be able to make an immediate impact. Frankly if we can get 2 draftees like that I'd say we had a good draft. (I'm still plugging for Mark Barron at Safety and either Andre Branch, Nick Perry, Jared Crick or Vinny Curry at DE/OLB.) But if a proven pass rusher like Mathis or Avril is available for us to go after, it's silly to just ignore them.

Unless you get a dream draft the Packers will probably not be able to significantly improve their defense through the draft alone.

 

[bozz_2006]

It'll be interesting to see the kind of money that Avril gets, and Where he goes. I'd love it if we could pick him up. I think he's an excellent player.

 

[13 Times Champs]

Where did I ask for stats? Yeah I can google as well as the next guy. I didn't ask what he did I wanted to know if in your opinion it's still a success if the offense or defense gets much worse with a players signing.... But I think you were just trying to say you value the stats more so than his impact directly to the W Column. Carry on...

For me there are several posters opinions I value more than any of the current players. Maybe thats Favres fault though, his GM like comments always looked terrible a few years later. we also have some excellent posters around here, to give credit where credit is due.

So you don't like stats to reinforce a position. Sorry you don't like the use of them in a debate. Like I said he did his part for the Eagles defense. Last time I checked there were 11 players on defense. You seem to be saying that every free agent guy that goes to another team should automatically result in that defense making a jump upwards. Depends on the overall talent of the team. It might make a huge difference to a team that needs a piece or two or very little to a talent poor team.

I don't automatically disregard a players comments as invalid. Bishops comments were pretty relevant in my opinion. They shouldn't be dismissed simply because they don't fit within ones argument. They play the game and know a lot more about football than arm chair QB's imo.

 

[ivo610]

So you don't like stats to reinforce a position. Sorry you don't like the use of them in a debate. Like I said he did his part for the Eagles defense. Last time I checked there were 11 players on defense. You seem to be saying that every free agent guy that goes to another team should automatically result in that defense making a jump upwards. Depends on the overall talent of the team. It might make a huge difference to a team that needs a piece or two or very little to a talent poor team.

I don't automatically disregard a players comments as invalid. Bishops comments were pretty relevant in my opinion. They shouldn't be dismissed simply because they don't fit within ones argument. They play the game and know a lot more about football than arm chair QB's imo.

I dont think you are even on the same page as me. Its not about the stats reguardless of how good they are. Its if the stats are good and the teams result is bad where do you place ... Nevermind I can only ask you so many times, I give up. Never said I didnt like stats. Its just that the individuals stats (whomever it is) is irrelevant to the question.

I didnt dismiss them bc they dont fit into an argument, I dismissed them because I dont think players are a good judge of talent or know much outside of the Xs and Os as I said before. Most base things off of emotion, and need years in a front office to understand everything else about football, as they only see it as black n white.

 

[13 Times Champs]

I dont think you are even on the same page as me.

I addressed your comment by more than just stats. ditto on not being on the same page and the giving up.

 

[TJV]

IMO when most of us talk about Thompson not using UFA we mean the well known and high priced UFAs that are pursued in the first hours and days of UFA. Thompson’s analysis over the years shows him teams are much more likely to make a huge mistake – money-wise, cap-wise, and team chemistry-wise - during that period than they are to “strike gold”. But that doesn’t mean Thompson doesn’t use UFA: Every time a Packers player tests the market and signs with the Packers, IMO that’s an UFA signing. Clifton and Jones are recent examples. But that’s not very exciting, is it? Thompson has also done well in UDFA – undrafted free agency – but for those who think the draft itself isn’t enough, the “leftovers” of the draft can hardly suffice. And he uses “traditional” UFA occasionally as well – like signing Chillar in 2008 as Kevin Seifert recently noted LINK. Seifert added, “in the past two seasons the Packers have won 29 of 37 games without tapping the quick fixes available in the free agent market.” That’s a 78% winning percentage and includes a title. Do you think that makes it more or less likely Thompson will change his ways?

ExpatPacker asks what if it’s not possible to fix the pass rush through the draft alone and that’s a fair question. I think Thompson would say UFA isn’t a sure fix for it, either. Don’t get me wrong, I’d get excited about a big splash in UFA just like almost all Packers fans. I just think that’s an unrealistic expectation because Thompson’s success at building the roster without high-priced UFAs reinforces his method of team building. As for whether or not the draft can fix the pass rush: IMO for next year’s D to improve, it will require more than talent acquisition: It’ll take better play from players already on the roster like Raji, Hawk (or his replacement), Williams and Shields in addition to an infusion of talent. To me the point about Jenkins and the other UFAs the Eagles signed is it’s an obvious example of UFAs not always being the solution, even if a team makes several “big splashes” in UFA. I previously made the point about the Packers finding a pass-rushing DE and/or OLB in the first 92 picks in the draft, but of course it’s possible they will find one later in the draft. Sometimes “pure pass rushers” fall in the draft because they aren’t “complete” players.

BTW, Howard Green was a waiver wire pickup. All the teams ahead of the Packers passed on him so he was awarded to the Packers. If you go to the “How Built” link under TEAM on the Packers’ website, you’ll see 35 draftees, 30 free agents (the site says 29 but doesn’t count the new QB Hill), 3 waiver pickups and one trade. BTW, all but three of the draftees were picked by Thompson. I’ve read (again) that Thompson won’t keep Driver and/or Clifton and/or Wells because he prefers “his guys”. I don’t think that’s correct: Thompson’s bias is toward youth IMO, not his ego. Of the recent free agents, IMO So’oto, Lattimore and perhaps a healthy Zombo have a chance of filling the void at ROLB and improving the pass rush. A healthy Neal has a chance of contributing to it, too. None of those players should be counted upon but each has a chance IMO. However without “internal improvement” talent acquisition alone isn’t going to be enough IMO even if Thompson signs UFAs. And if everything else on D would have been the same this past season with the only exception being Jenkins was still a Packer, IMO the Packers would still be sitting at home (or in Hawaii), licking their wounds.

BTW II: I respect Desmond Bishop’s opinion, but regarding talent acquisition and building a team, I respect Ted Thompson’s opinion much, much more.