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What should TT do?

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by AmishMafia, Nov 8, 2013.

  1. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    We have a limited amount of dollars and a few FAs coming up. Some tough decisions need to be made. Time to step in for TT and be the GM. For simplicity we will do regular contracts – no back weighted contracts or anything. I made up the dollar amounts I think these players will sign for. Tough to say – Jones is better (now) than Jennings and Jennings got $9M/year. But I doubt Jones gets that. Players like Finley will be discounted because of injury and Pickett because of age.


    Expected Cap $123M

    Current 2014 Cap # $107.5M

    2013 Cap $113M of $122M or $9M carryover

    Gives us $24.5M


    Possible Cuts:

    http://overthecap.com/teamcap.php?Team=Packers&Year=2014


    Free agents:



    Ryan Pickett NT 33 $5M

    B.J. Raji DE 27 $7M

    Jermichael Finley TE 26 $6M

    James Jones WR 29 $7M

    Sam Shields CB 25 $5M

    John Kuhn FB 31 $2M

    Evan Dietrich-Smith C 27 $3.5M

    Marshall Newhouse T 24 $1.5M

    Andrew Quarless TE 24 $3M

    Seneca Wallace QB 33 $1M

    Johnny Jolly DE 30 $6M

    Rob Francois LB 28 $1M

    Mike Neal LB 26 $3M

    James Starks RB 27 $5M

    C.J. Wilson DE 26 $2M

    RESTRICTED (2)

    *M.D. Jennings S 25 $600k

    Jamari Lattimore LB 24 $2M

    EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS (1)

    Chris Banjo S 23 0 $1M
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2013
  2. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    Here is my game plan:

    Cuts

    Tramon Williams. Sorry buddy. Unless he takes a huge cut – he is gone. Sorry – but saving $7.5M is more valuable.

    Jarrett Bush. Your getting a bit old for strictly a Special Teams guy. $1.7m savings

    Resign

    B.J. Raji $7M - Controls the line of Scrimmage.

    Sam Shields $5M - Still improving and can dominate

    Andrew Quarless $3M - Let Finley go due to injury concerns making Quarless a higher priority

    Seneca Wallace $1M - maybe I will edit this after this Sunday

    Johnny Jolly $6M - we probably get a discount here

    Jamari Lattimore $2M - This is a bargain thanks to restricted rights

    Chris Banjo $1M - Exercise our exclusive rights and get a bargain


    Thats $25M


    Leaving me with $6.7 in cap

    Meant to leave more cap space - but already made a lot of painful cuts/non-resignings
    Last edited: Nov 9, 2013
  3. ivo610
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    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    1. How many players are you planning on letting walk?
    2. How many are you signing?
    3. You are going to fill the difference in those roster spots with 1.7 mil that you had leftover, as well as your draft picks?
    4. What if you need to sign someone during the season? Make someone restructure and put off the cap hit til the future?
    5. You plan on making Raji the highest paid player at his position? Is that smart?
    6. You plan on making Jolly one of the highest paid players at his position? That seems like a huge overpayment
    7. You want to make shields one of the highest paid players at his position? That seems a bit much.
  4. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    1. Letting those I don't sign, walk
    2. Signing the ones mentioned
    3. Loss of players is inevitable. Expecting the younger players to step up.
    4. Yep. Wish I had more cap space. May have to restructure a few if more $ needed. But that wasn't in the rules of my proposal.
    5. You are right. Changed Raji to $7M per year. Seems more reasonable.
    6. Wow. I certainly thought DTs made more. CHanged Jolly as well
    7. Correct again. Moved Shields down a bit.

    Now I have 6.7M in cap space. Not bad for some manuevering.
  5. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Q: What should TT do?
    A: Pay no attention to fans' opinions.
    :D
    • Agree Agree x 3
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  6. 7thFloorRA
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    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    You have to resign EDS. I don't think he is very good but he has to be around until someone else comes in and learns the system.
  7. FrankRizzo
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    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Where the heck is James Jones?
    Continues to be under-appreciated and overlooked, even among Packer fans.
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  8. 7thFloorRA
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    7thFloorRA Cheesehead

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    Ryan Pickett NT 33 $5M Goodbye

    B.J. Raji DE 27 $7M Keep but can not overpay.

    Jermichael Finley TE 26 $6M Maybe keep because he now has zero leverage to get big money

    James Jones WR 29 $7M I think he stays at a discount after seeing Jennings in the tank with another team

    Sam Shields CB 25 $5M Must pay the man

    John Kuhn FB 31 $2M Go home for a few years and come back as a quality control coach or something

    Evan Dietrich-Smith C 27 $3.5M Keeper

    Marshall Newhouse T 24 $1.5M Cut him as soon as Sherrod shows he can play. Need his roster spot for Worthy or cobb.

    Andrew Quarless TE 24 $3M Keep on the cheap only

    Seneca Wallace QB 33 $1M Goodbye

    Johnny Jolly DE 30 $6M Must Keep

    Rob Francois LB 28 $1M Goodbye unless he shows he is 100 percent healthy before ota's

    Mike Neal LB 26 $3M Keeper

    James Starks RB 27 $5M Depends on the $. Most likely gone

    C.J. Wilson DE 26 $2M Goodbye

    RESTRICTED (2)

    *M.D. Jennings S 25 $600k Goodbye

    Jamari Lattimore LB 24 $2M Pay the man and then play the man

    EXCLUSIVE RIGHTS (1)

    Chris Banjo S 23 0 $1M[/quote] Must keep


    Additional Cuts
    Tramon
  9. FrankRizzo
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    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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  10. NelsonsLongCatch
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    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    Here are just a few thoughts:

    1) James Jones won't/shouldn't get a big contract just because of his age. 30 year-old receivers who aren't clear #1 options usually don't get big contracts. With a healthy Randal Cobb, Boykins could be the #3 receiver.

    2) Shields has earned a contract. He deserves the money even if it's at the expense of Tramon Williams. He is a guy they must resign.

    3) Finley has no leverage for anything. He'll probably sign with GB for a one year contract and try to earn a bigger contract in 2015.

    I would definitely resign:

    B.J. Raji DE 27
    Jermichael Finley TE 26
    James Jones WR 29
    Sam Shields CB 25
    Dietrich-Smith C 27
    Andrew Quarless TE 24
    Johnny Jolly DE 30
    Rob Francois LB 28
  11. AmishMafia
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    AmishMafia There's cheese under that hat

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    Raji 7M
    Finley 6M
    Jones 7M
    Shields 5M
    EDS 3.5M
    Quarless 3M
    Jolly 6M
    Francois 1M

    Thats 38.5M and we have 24.5M in cap space. Purpose of this exercise was one of practicality. I think I have reasonable salary expectations listed - so we just cant sign everyone who is a FA. Some good promising players are going to have to be let go. It should be a function of who we have; importance of the position; availability of other, cheaper players to take over. I think Jones is gone. Great to keep him, but he should get a decent contract somewhere else and we have Boykin to step up into his position.

    I do hope we keep more of these guys or get a 'home town discount'. But Jennings got 9M from the Vikings! When you are successful, individually and as a team, some GMs seem to be willing to pay a premium. There will be a few of our guys who get a contract that surprises us. Just like Jennings and that OLB who went to the Colts.
  12. Bus Cook
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    Bus Cook You're never alone with a schizophrenic

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    I assume that this is a rhetorical thread. The answer is simple. Accumulate draft picks, save cap space, trade down. History shows us that if a player is up for extension, TT signs him before he hits the market. Any of the above that aren't extended before FA opens, are gone. The only way we see any of those names resigned, after FA, is if they have a younger brother in the draft.
    • Informative Informative x 1
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  13. 13 Times Champs
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    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    I didn't know James Jones and Brad Jones were related Bus. Informative post.
  14. NelsonsLongCatch
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    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    [quote="AmishMafia, post: 522938, member: 2846" I think Jones is gone. Great to keep him, but he should get a decent contract somewhere else and we have Boykin to step up into his position.

    I do hope we keep more of these guys or get a 'home town discount'. But Jennings got 9M from the Vikings! When you are successful, individually and as a team, some GMs seem to be willing to pay a premium. There will be a few of our guys who get a contract that surprises us. Just like Jennings and that OLB who went to the Colts.[/quote]

    I'm going based off the fact that Jones got NO interest three years ago at 26/27. Now, he'll be 30. Not only will he be 30, but he's never made the Pro Bowl or been a #1 receiver (unlike Jennings). I don't see the market for Jones being very big. Nobody is going to give him #1 money and I could say that with a ton of confidence.
  15. adambr2
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    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    $6M for Johnny Jolly?? Love the guy, love his story, but I believe we are overrating him pretty excessively here. I can't see him getting more than $3M anywhere. I do want him back, though.

    I would not resign Raji. That kind of money is not worth it when we can get another big body to do the same things that he does.

    Banjo, if returned, will probably get half of that $1M as an ERFA.

    I don't think $5M for Shields is going to cut it or I think it would have already been done.
  16. Sunshinepacker
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    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Paying $7mn a year for Raji would be irresponsible to say the least. You don't pay $7mn for a player that is decent against the run and invisible against the pass. I would rather resign Jolly for $4-5mn and let Raji walk. Save the $3-4mn for Cobb or Jones and Jolly is 80% the player that Raji is. If Raji wasn't a first round pick, nobody would think he's worth $7mn in our defense.

    Pickett is more important (and cheaper) than Raji in my mind. We have guys on the team that can play DE. Pickett is the only proven NT on the roster and the 3-4 HAS to have a reliable NT to be effective. The few times that Raji has played NT, he's been pretty much awful.

    Shields will probably get a deal around $8mn per year. Could have made more but he's regressed from last year (though still much improved over 2011). Keenan Lewis left the Steeler for New Orleans this offseason and his deal averages $5.1mn; Shields is a better player.

    I doubt Finley comes back. This offense doesn't utilize the TE like others do and he'd maximize his value going to a place like New England/New Orleans/Dallas, or even Detroit where they throw the ball all over the place. Finley signs a one year deal at a place like that and gets more looks his way, he stands to make a lot more money than with the Packers where he's used in more of a short-intermediate role.

    Starks is another interesting guy. Wouldn't cost that much, he knows the offense and he's a perfect backup for Lacy since he has the same running style to punish defenses.

    Out of all the players listed, the only ones I would really try for would be Jones, Pickett and Shields. Obviously if you can get bargain prices on Raji/Jolly/EDS then I'd resign them. Don't think they're worth bringing back at a high price just because they're better than the backups. If the player isn't worth the contract, then don't spend it. Save it for a guy that is like Nelson, Cobb,....oh great, now I'm depressed, for a team that's built through the draft I can't really find anyone else that's earned a good contract.
  17. Dan115
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    Dan115 Cheesehead

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    How old is Pickett?
  18. Croak
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    Croak Cheesehead

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    I appreciate the first post. Listing out the money due and the money left certainly puts things in perspective. I'm sure glad I'm not an NFL GM.
  19. Sunshinepacker
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    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    34. However, NT doesn't need a ton of athleticism to stack the line of scrimmage and they play a relatively limited number of snaps since if you can stop the run on first down the NT is basically taken out in nickel/dime.
  20. Dan115
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    Dan115 Cheesehead

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    I bet TT lets him walk.
  21. HardRightEdge
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    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Shields, Jones and Jolly should be the priorities because they will represent good value for the money.

    Somebody mentioned Shields being an $8 million per year guy. That's quite a bit higher than what he'll be offered by anybody. He's a terrific man-to-man cover corner, but he has regular lapses in zone and is still somewhat sketchy in run support. Rightly or wrongly, his draft status (or non-draft status as it were) will hang over his negotiations; it happens so regularly in the NFL it's practically a rule. More like $5 - $6 million per year. If they get him signed, you'd have to expect Tramon Williams will be gone...the money moves to the younger, healthy guy with better skills at this point.

    Jones is a solid #2 wideout. Like the last go round, nobody will pay him #1 money, so the cost will not be exhorbitant. Boykin's decent play makes the Packers bargaining position stronger. Given the amount of 3-wide sets we run, having 4 capable-to-good WRs isn't a luxury, especially if Finley's gone. Nonetheless, I would not be shocked if Jones ends up being a cap casualty if you reckon a solid if unspectacular #2 should be worth about $4.5 mil per year to somebody else.

    If ever there was a home town discount, it should be Jolly, given the risks the team took bringing him back. Most teams would not even look at a former player in that position, let alone keeping him past the final cut. Of all the FAs, Jolly should be the best bang for the buck. He's a young 30, having missed 3 years of physical abuse.

    At my last count, there are 11 teams running a 3-4 defense. Raji doesn't even rank among the top half of starting NTs/big body 3-4 DEs. He's not been particularly effective against the pass for a couple of years now. He's OK against the run at DE, weaker at NT. There was a glimmer of hope in the Bears games...the first 40 minutes was his best play in three years with about 5 finger-wagging plays against a couple of decent OGs. Then he went back to his typically unimpactful ways. Dropping his snaps from 60 to 45 has not energized him, and he's rapidly on his way to 25 snaps with Daniels and Jones taking more of his snaps in nickel, and Worthy will be coming back for some snaps (or the job) at DE. In situations like this Philly game, where your vet defensive "stars" need to step up, where was Raji? In general, his playmaking is not particularly frequent and relatively random. What is this player profile worth? The only thing in Raji's favor is Pickett's age, and now his sore knees, but purging complacency has its benefits.

    Finley...how do you give a guy a decent contract coming off a spinal injury without first seeing if he can play? I don't think that's very smart. To state the obvious, free agent signing starts before OTAs, so any signing before or during the FA period amounts to a leap of faith. Maybe a one or two year deal with heavy game-played incentives. Nonetheless, every signing bonus $ in a new contract would be money out the window if it turns out he can't play. Somebody might take the risk and offer more; Finley strikes me as a guy who will follow the money as so many before him.

    I'd like to see Pickett back if his legs hold up. The guy is a warrior, an attribute in short supply on this defense. That's an adjective you'll never hear applied to Raji. He won't cost much at that age, and would not command more than a fairly modest one or two year deal.

    EDS and Quarless won't cost much. Quarless is a lock if they decide not to sign Finley.

    MM seems to love Neal for his athleticism and he is leading the team in that pesky "pressures" category. The problem is he's athletic enough to pressure, but not athletic enough to get home. How much is that worth? Not a lot.

    If Shields gets signed, Tramon Williams should be gone. I don't think you can keep paying the guy with his press and man-to-man cover corner skills gone with the shoulder injury.

    We'll likely keep either Bush or Kuhn, maybe both. When you have special teams loaded with youth every year; you need some kind of vet continuity and leadership. Kuhn has had a bit of a resurgency in the past few weeks with some nice blocks and a first down or two. I'd put him on the "likely to be back" list. He won't cost that much.

    Newhouse is dead weight.

    While the rest of the guys have had some moments and have shown some positive attributes, in the final analysis, they're just guys...Wallace, Francois, Wilson, Jennings, Lattimore, Banjo...when you turn over 12-15 roster spots every year these are the kinds of players that cheap rookies and practice squad buys bump off the team if not out of the league.
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2013

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