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The problem of franchising Flynn.

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Raptorman, Jan 20, 2012.

  1. AaronShockley
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    AaronShockley Cheesehead

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    If Jenkins stayed we would have been fine. I think the Secondary is fine as is when we get Collins back (if he is healthy) Burnett is good, he's just young, and still needs to improve, I would say give him one more year and see where he is.
  2. FrankRizzo
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    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Ye of such little faith in Ted. Come on.


    The tag & trade is looking like a real possibility!

    A front-office executive for an NFL team said the league doesn’t discourage tag-and-trade strongly enough to prevent the Packers from doing it with Flynn if they think it’s their best move. Another NFL scout said he thinks some team will trade a decent draft pick and pay Flynn a good enough contract to swing the deal, even though the quarterback has started only two NFL games.

    “I definitely think he’s going to get paid; he’s going to get paid like a franchise guy,” the scout said. “He’s had two really good bodies of work (i.e., games) when he’s been called on, against good teams.”

    The Packers have until March 5 to decide whether to designate Flynn their franchise player, and Thompson and his top scouts no doubt are talking with teams at the NFL scouting combine this week to gauge interest

    The team to watch closest in the pursuit of Flynn is the Miami Dolphins, whose new coach is former Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin. Unlike the other teams, the Dolphins can judge Flynn on more than two regular-season games.
    “The guy (Flynn) did an awesome job, but (two games) is a small body of work to look at,” the scout said. “A guy like Philbin, having seen him every day in practice, he’d have a better gauge of what he thinks (Flynn) really is as opposed to everyone else looking at game film. Philbin was there looking at him every day in practice, going to quarterback school with him.”

    If the Packers tag Flynn and he doesn’t agree to a contract with a trade partner, the Packers would be on the hook for the $14.4 million. But the Packers might be working with Flynn’s agent to see if the quarterback will agree to a contract with a new team before the March 5 tag deadline. Then the tag-and-trade would be risk free.

    packersnews.greenbaypressgazette.com/article/20120223/PKR01/120223107/NFL-franchise-tag-looks-like-real-possibility-for-Green-Bay-Packers-backup-QB-Matt-Flynn
  3. Croak
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    Croak Cheesehead

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    Aaannnddd TT is non-committal.

    “Matt is a professional. Our policy is to try to keep all of our players. I’m not going to tell the other 31 teams what I think of Matt Flynn,” Thompson said.

    Flynn is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent on March 13. The contract tight end Jermichael Finley[​IMG] signed on Thursday has caused speculation the Packers might use the franchise tag on Flynn, to retain his rights.
    “I wouldn’t speculate on what our plans would be,” Thompson said.

    http://www.packers.com/news-and-eve...nn-needs/c4106b08-03b1-4aac-a8ae-95174f4d8292

    Ted speaks, but he says nothing....
  4. FrankRizzo
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    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Ted, and every other GM. is not supposed to reveal any ideas, plans, pre-conceived notions.
    Ted never leaked his trade idea for, or his love for Matthews.

    Trying to cash in Matt Flynn at this point is time is the wise thing to do. Chances like this don't come along often, if ever.
    Let's cash him in for a LB or DE.
  5. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    To add more to my original post. Another problem in franchising Flynn follows. Sorry if I have posted some of this before but I just want to get it in one post.

    Cap space. The Packers are bumping up against the cap. They have to be below the cap on March 13. Free agency starts on March 13th. First the Packer would have to cut or redo the contracts of several players. The 2 mentioned in the press are Driver and Clifton. This apparently would give them the cap room to franchise Flynn. Say the Packers do this, now with FA agency starting the Packers are at the cap. The problems is they can't sign or make offers to other FA's that would put them over the cap amount. Any offer to a player counts against the cap when it is made. So if the Packers are $2 million under the cap and want to offer a player a deal that pays $3 million in the first year they can't do it. So by being up against the cap the Packers would be limiting themselves in playing in the FA period until they get rid of Flynn. Not that Ted does a whole lot in FA anyway. But if they want to keep Wells or other of their FA's, it may influence that decision.

    Now, I don't see getting rid of Flynn as being much of a problem. But if it ties the Packers hands for the first few days of FA it could become and issue. As to making a deal for Flynn before FA. Technically it is against the tampering rules to make deals before FA begins. I know it happens and things are discussed. But if the Packers tag Flynn and have a deal to trade him to the Browns 5 minutes after FA begins, and other teams didn't get a chance make a bid on him I think the NFL may take a look at it. The Packers got away with it when the did it to Corey Williams but everyone thought the Packers tagged him to keep him. Everyone knows that the Packers are tagging Flynn to trade him. So I would think they would wait until FA begins before talking to teams.

    Now if they do tag him what do they get in return? Depends on who they trade him to. With a team like the Browns I could see them getting a swap of firsts (the lower one) and a second or third. I don't see anyone giving up a top 10 pick for him. He just does not have the playing time needed for a first pick. I also believe the Kolb trade may temper teams willing to give up a lot of picks for Flynn. Then you have the combine, if guys like Tannehill start showing teams some good stuff teams may take a chance on them rather than losing picks. I don't see to many teams getting into a bidding war to get him. I think most team would make and offer and that would be it. Either they get him or not. But that's just my opinion, I could be wrong.
  6. weeds
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    Good posting throughout this thread, Raptorman.

    Let's say the Packers DO tag Flynn (I don't see it personally) and DO exceed the imaginary line in the sand known as "the cap" and then trade him. I mean, the Pack can tag him, but without a contract in place until they trade him, how can a cap number be assigned to Flynn? Without a contract in place, TECHNICALLY, the Pack have NOT exceeded the cap number...and if they do, what is the penalty? I couldn't imagine Jerry Jones and Daniel Snyder and Kraft making a deal out of it in that their organizations are all as slippery as a bucket full of hog livers themselves.
  7. 7thFloorRA
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    Sherman is trying his best to screw this thing up. STFU about your qb from Texas A&M already. He should be lucky he even has a job after his track record of sucking the last 1O years.
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  8. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    weeds, the Packers have to clear cap space before they tag Flynn because he can sign the tender immediately and if he does the $14.4M counts against the cap when he signs it.

    Regarding Raptorman, IMO he has brought up some salient issues and posts in a reasonable and rational way, but he’s also brought up a couple issues that don’t have merit. For example, he’s posted that Flynn could refuse to sign the franchise tag tender for months and thereby prevent a trade. While that’s possible, what would motivate Flynn to do that? First by signing the tag he’s immediately guaranteed about $14.4M for one year’s work. Second, by signing the tag and cooperating with the trade he becomes a starting NFL QB and will most likely be offered a contract with at least $14.4M guaranteed dollars with an opportunity to make much more. If Flynn is motivated by the desire to be a starting NFL QB, he cooperates with a trade. If he’s motivated more by money, he signs the tag. And if he sits “in limbo” through the draft teams will likely make other plans and the Packers could withdraw the tag and Flynn would be in a much worse position. And if it appears to other teams that he would be happy to sit on the bench behind Rodgers, even though he'd be making a ton of money, that lessens his value league-wide IMO.

    Raptorman has also posted about tampering being a large obstacle to a tag and trade deal but seems to have relented some on that point in his most recent post. The latest issue he’s brought up with which I disagree is the “problem” that Thompson won’t be able to be aggressive in the first few days of free agency. That’s at least a little humorous on its face, isn’t it? IMO that shouldn’t even appear last on a list of concerns since we aren’t talking about Dan Snyder’s team. If a tag and trade happens I expect it to happen something like this: The Packers waive Clifton and either re-do Driver's deal or waive him. Perhaps they re-do Woodson’s deal to create cap space. They tag Flynn because before March 13th they know two or three teams would like to trade for him. If Thompson believes the timing of the trade is an issue the Packers could spend three or four days fielding offers from the teams interested in Flynn. They could wait a week or more before completing the trade. That scenario wouldn’t hurt the Packers at all. If there is a free agent they’re interested in, most likely it won’t be a top UFA and they could let his agent know they’ll make an offer after the Flynn trade is done. If the player can’t wait that long perhaps he would have used Green Bay for leverage anyway. And at that point it wouldn’t be tampering to have a handshake deal with that player before he signs.
  9. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    According to the CBA any amounts tendered to players count against the cap whether signed or not. This is designed, in my opinion, to prevent teams from tendering several players at once and then whomever signs first they pull the other tenders back. So teams will only tender players they really want. IF teams could do it, you know they would.
  10. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Jack, you have to understand who has the negotiating rights with the franchise tag. If the player signs the tag, the team owns him. He has no say in which team he is traded to. The players only leverage at this point is his willingness to redo the one year $14 million contract. If the Player does not sign the tag, he can negotiate with any team he wishes, the caveat being that the new team would be willing to give up 2 first round picks or his old team being willing to negotiate a different set of draft picks.

    The reason the Packers would not be able to be aggressive in FA if they tag Flynn is if they are up against the cap. Players are not going to wait for the Packers to strike a deal on Flynn to free up money to sign them . Nice idea but in the real world not going to happen. Any amount tendered is counted against the cap right away. From what I understand on the new CBA is that teams are no longer allowed to go over the cap at any time during the league year. I don't see this as a big issue unless the Packers feel the need to resign some of their own current FA.
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  11. realcaliforniacheese
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    realcaliforniacheese A-Rods Boss

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    Bottom line would be does TT see enough interest in Flynn that he would believe he could tag him and get a deal from someone, And he doesn't intend on diving into the early hi priced FA market where he would need that Cap room immediately. Lot of risk reward decisions.
  12. ivo610
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    Anyone that has followed ted long enough knows that to be true. Not that Im complaining in the least.
  13. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    In a nutshell, thats it. The driving factor is that he Cap is a hard cap they may not go over.
  14. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I do understand who has the negotiating rights and while you seem to have a handle on the details of the tags, IMO you seem to be having trouble with the practical applications of the process. For example, you say Flynn “has no say in which team he is traded to”. That’s technically true, but practically yes he does because just as no team will trade 2 first rounders for him (and would have to come to agreement with the Packers on compensation), no team will trade for him if he doesn’t agree to a longer-term contract with that team.


    Again IMO you are technically correct but missing the bigger, practical picture. The basic reason the Packers not being a player in the first week or two - or more - of the free agency period isn’t a concern is Ted Thompson is unlikely to be one no matter what. But assume for a moment there is a UFA Thompson wants to acquire. It is not unreasonable to believe the Packers could come to an understanding with that player before a contract is signed and before Flynn is traded. Why would the player wait? For two reasons: We have to assume he would want to join the Packers under the terms offered and more importantly, Thompson won’t do the tag and trade unless the Flynn trade will happen relatively quickly so the player wouldn’t have to wait long. And if it happens, look at the result: The Packers will have freed up at least $14.4M cap space to do the tag and trade and afterwards, they will have that amount of cap space to extend other players or sign the hypothetical UFA.
  15. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    But you also have to remember players are in it to get paid. Here you have Ted telling a player we want you but you have to wait until we trade Flynn, and the player has a written offer from another team for the same amount. Why would that player take Teds word on it? Ted can't give him a written offer because then it counts against the cap. I don't see it as a big issue because Ted does not play much in the FA market anyway, and because if Flynn is tagged I would expect a deal to be done in the first few days of FA. Like I said, not a big issue but one that the Packers have to think about.

    IF Ted does not tag Flynn, a lot of fans are going to be asking why. These issues that I am bringing forth are just some of the things the team has to deal with. Many fans don't think about the "big picture" as to how the tag influences the entire FA market for the Packers. If the Packers were $30 million under the cap it would not even be an issue, and I would not have brought it up.
  16. ThxJackVainisi
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    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    What if the offers are the same but the hypothetical UFA prefers to join a team with a chance at winning it all? What if the Packers offer is higher than any other offer he received? And why would the player and his agent trust Thompson, Ball and the Packers? Because they have an excellent reputation and if they reneged on the deal, the agent would spread that around the league and they would no longer enjoy that reputation. Reneging on the offer would be foolish and Thompson and staff are not foolish.
  17. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    Possible, I will agree with you. Players may wait. Players may not. Anything is possible. After all, before free agency begins teams are not supposed to talk with the agents about players not on their team, but everyone knows it's going on right now in Indy. It's the tampering the NFL has no way to control.
  18. FrankRizzo
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    What is Flynn's "Value"?
    Let's argue that.

    I would say his "Value" is about a #20 pick. Or higher based on what he's gonna be paid by his next team who and however he gets there.
  19. ivo610
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    I think you could move up 10-15 spots in the first round with trading Flynn.

    That being said, at this point I don't expect him to be traded. If driver and Clifton are cut I might change my mind
  20. Croak
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    I get what you are saying Raptor. It seems folks trust their "feelings" more than the facts in a lot of this. We are die hard Packer fans and have a hard time thinking Ted Thompson won't do exactly what the fans think. But here's a good article that gives another angle on what you are saying. McCarthy would probably try to keep Flynn, but it's not TT's way. He'll probably let him walk.

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.co...-mccarthy-take-different-approaches-on-flynn/
  21. Bagadeez04
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    I can't believe we're seriously discussing that a reason "tag and trade" wouldn't happen is because it would hurt Ted's ability to go after UFA. The guy surely won't be doing anything in FA the first week, might show some interest in the left-overs after a week or two...but even then he's probably not going to do anything.

    The reason he's not getting into free agency is driven by having to re-sign his own guys over the next several years...not because Flynn would count $14.4 million against the cap for a couple weeks.

    There are legitimate reasons why this thing wouldn't happen...this is not one of them.
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  22. FrankRizzo
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    Opportunities like this (a QB who is better than any QB in the draft other than the guys gonna be going #1 & #2) do not come along often.
    Mr Thompson would be foolish to let a chip like this go away uncashed.

    Is there some risk involved? Probably.
    Is there risk involved drafting Justin Harrell at pick #16?
    Is there risk drafting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round when Rodgers is about to take over?
    Is there risk letting Cullen Jenkins go with hopes that the brittle Mike Neal will fill his shoes?
    Is there risk taking a mediocre Ryan Tannehill in the 1st round like some desperate team is gonna do in April?
    Was there risk signing Charles Woodson when Oakland spit him out?
  23. fettpett
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    fettpett Cheesehead

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    there are risks, then there is stupidity

    Harrell was stupid, had plenty of reasons not to take him till maybe the second round while trading the pick to the Browns for their #1 the next year and the #2 that year

    Brohm good choice considering...sucks he didn't pan out, would have been good trade bait at lest.

    Jenkins was dumb, would have been cheap and easy to keep him, but understand the reasoning behind it.

    Tannehill....either the 'Phins will be stupid and draft him at the #8 spot or they will get him in the 2nd or 3rd round (or someone else will).

    Woodson...well he's that risk that proves to that taking risks are hell of a good reason to try, with in reason. (Risking an entire draft on Ricky Williams was not, Dika)
  24. Raptorman
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    Raptorman Vikings fan since 1966.

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    A draft pick is only good if he turns out to be a good NFL player. Any player no matter were they are picked is a a risk. IF the Dolphins pick Tannehill at 8 and he brings them 3 Lombardi's while Luck gets stuck with none, it will be seen as a good pick while Luck will be considered a bust. Fact is, only about half of the first round QB's ever become good QB's in the league, no matter if they were number 1 or number 22.
  25. realcaliforniacheese
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    Hottest topic in town. Here's another link to an article about the unlikelihood of Flynn being franchised.
    http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/corp/page/02%2F25%2F12_Packers_unlikely_to_tag_Flynn/479?feed=2
    in it they point out what I said earlier in this thread.
    tagging Flynn would violate the spirit of the franchise tag. Tagging a player with the sole intention of trading him, while not technically against league rules, is frowned upon.
    “(The Packers) don’t do business that way,” one NFL source said at the NFL Scouting Combine.

    plus a number of other reasons. he tagged and traded Joey Galoway back in 01 but that was an entirely different set of circumstances.

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