The Pretenders of the Midway

ivo610

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While you must always support your team, you must also always give credit where credit is due. And the Bears deserve credit for their 11 wins.

and any player that has a great season. Favre had a great season last season, Suh is a beast in detroit along with megatron, and Urlacher is playing at a pro bowl level. Saying anything less makes you sound like you know nothing about football.
 

DevilDon

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Let me help you understand. Its like comparing AJ Hawk and Clay Matthews. One has more tackles, does that make him a better player? Of course not. You get all that?

Last time I read a book? You keep bringing up all these TV shows so I am sort of wondering when the last time you have? Sounds like you have a great life watching all these shows. Unemployed or retired?

I am a packer fan so I cant be a homer for the bears genius. I just give respect where respect is due. Urlacher has had a possible HOF career and has put up another stellar year. If you care to disagree put up some stats or something of substance, otherwise ****.
Let me help YOU understand. You're saying Urlacher is a god based on being seventh in tackles. That is EXACTLY my point. He's' getting tackles because their defense tries to contain runs to the inside, just like we do. That's why Hawk and Bishop and the safeties have as many tackles as they do.
But he's still no Clay. Nor is Hawk. For that matter, Charles Woodson is a CB, but he came in and stripped the ball on a run play last week right? I suppose he had no business being there, that's' not his position.
Not unemployed or retired, got injured and was on death's door for a few days, but yea, I guess I'm a bum, can't be anything honest that I catch TV can it?
You're the one who questioned if I watched TV buddy.
Last, you're one of those stat guys hey? So Eli has a Super Bowl ring, is he better than Rodgers?
And hey, telling me to **** is out of line. We're both Packer fans, I just can't stomach anybody giving props to the Bares. I respect their fans, but hate the team too much. Maybe you can start a "Bear love" string so you and your ilk can hang out and patt each other on the butt and talk about Urlacher being so good.
I like most of your posts Ivo, but don't jump on me when I talk about how our players are better than theirs. Without the injuries at inopportune times, we'd be division winners. You and I both know the Packers are better than the Bares.
 
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Justanobserver

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LTF: "But not by 20 or more like some have said."

Who, except the most optimistic (unrealistic?) would have thought we'd beat the Giants by 28?

I think we're capable of handing the Bears the same whipping that the Pats gave them a couple of weeks ago, although I'd like to delay that until next week. Any kind of win this week will do.

Listen the D they play sucks plain and simple(Lovie Smith's cover 2 prevent). Rodgers must be salivating right now. This game will be over early.
Respect is something earned and the Bears haven't really earned it yet. Look at the Pats game. It looks very similar to the blowouts from 2009 against the Cards, Ravens, Bengals. The Jets torched the Bears D just like the Packers will do and more.

The Bears don't utilize all of the talent they do have. The Packer organization is light years ahead of the Bear Organization.
Next year the Bears will be back in their rightful place...3rd or 4th....
 

red4tribe

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Listen the D they play sucks plain and simple(Lovie Smith's cover 2 prevent). Rodgers must be salivating right now. This game will be over early.
Respect is something earned and the Bears haven't really earned it yet. Look at the Pats game. It looks very similar to the blowouts from 2009 against the Cards, Ravens, Bengals. The Jets torched the Bears D just like the Packers will do and more.

The Bears don't utilize all of the talent they do have. The Packer organization is light years ahead of the Bear Organization.
Next year the Bears will be back in their rightful place...3rd or 4th....

In Rodgers' last 4 games against the Bears he has put up 17, 21, 21 and 17 points. While not terrible it certainly doesn't allow the defense room for much error. I'd be surprised if the Packers put more than 24 up.

But hey, maybe he'll surprise me. I just don't see us blowing out the Bears, Whether they're 7-9 or 11-5 they always play us tough.
 

DevilDon

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Listen the D they play sucks plain and simple(Lovie Smith's cover 2 prevent). Rodgers must be salivating right now. This game will be over early.
Respect is something earned and the Bears haven't really earned it yet. Look at the Pats game. It looks very similar to the blowouts from 2009 against the Cards, Ravens, Bengals. The Jets torched the Bears D just like the Packers will do and more.

The Bears don't utilize all of the talent they do have. The Packer organization is light years ahead of the Bear Organization.
Next year the Bears will be back in their rightful place...3rd or 4th....
You are 100% right, that D is as vanilla as they come. That's why the Pats lit them up and had such a tough time against our D. I'd like nothing more than to face them twice and kick their blue and orange azzes to the pavement in the playoffs.
 

ivo610

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Let me help YOU understand. You're saying Urlacher is a god based on being seventh in tackles. That is EXACTLY my point. He's' getting tackles because their defense tries to contain runs to the inside, just like we do. That's why Hawk and Bishop and the safeties have as many tackles as they do.
But he's still no Clay. Nor is Hawk. For that matter, Charles Woodson is a CB, but he came in and stripped the ball on a run play last week right? I suppose he had no business being there, that's' not his position.
Not unemployed or retired, got injured and was on death's door for a few days, but yea, I guess I'm a bum, can't be anything honest that I catch TV can it?
You're the one who questioned if I watched TV buddy.
Last, you're one of those stat guys hey? So Eli has a Super Bowl ring, is he better than Rodgers?
And hey, telling me to **** is out of line. We're both Packer fans, I just can't stomach anybody giving props to the Bares. I respect their fans, but hate the team too much. Maybe you can start a "Bear love" string so you and your ilk can hang out and patt each other on the butt and talk about Urlacher being so good.
I like most of your posts Ivo, but don't jump on me when I talk about how our players are better than theirs. Without the injuries at inopportune times, we'd be division winners. You and I both know the Packers are better than the Bares.

Yes I like stats, imo they tell the story sometimes that isnt always obvious, sometimes they dont. Eli better than rodgers? Not a chance, look at the stats. Bad QBs can win SBs too. Eli might be the most overpaid QB in the league. IMO only Brady is better. Several other QBs are on the same level at this point as Rodgers.

I jumped on you because you said Urlacher is done, not because I like the bears but because I really respect what Urlacher has done this year and in his career. Alot of posters on here have talked about Hawks great season, well Urlacher has 30 more solo tackles so I dont see how he is done. I respect him more than anyone else in the division that doesnt play for the packers. Before Favre was a diva I knew alot of Bears fans who really respected him and enjoyed watching him play.
 

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You are 100% right, that D is as vanilla as they come. That's why the Pats lit them up and had such a tough time against our D. I'd like nothing more than to face them twice and kick their blue and orange azzes to the pavement in the playoffs.

They must be doing something right if we're averaging only 19 points against them per game in our last four meetings.

Granted, we did shoot ourselves in the foot with penalties last game. Otherwise we dominated, offensively and defensively.
 

DevilDon

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Yes I like stats, imo they tell the story sometimes that isnt always obvious, sometimes they dont. Eli better than rodgers? Not a chance, look at the stats. Bad QBs can win SBs too. Eli might be the most overpaid QB in the league. IMO only Brady is better. Several other QBs are on the same level at this point as Rodgers.

I jumped on you because you said Urlacher is done, not because I like the bears but because I really respect what Urlacher has done this year and in his career. Alot of posters on here have talked about Hawks great season, well Urlacher has 30 more solo tackles so I dont see how he is done. I respect him more than anyone else in the division that doesnt play for the packers. Before Favre was a diva I knew alot of Bears fans who really respected him and enjoyed watching him play.
The point I"m trying to make it that stats don't tell the whole story or they do if you want to make a point. Insurance companies do it all the time to ask for more money.
Tell ya what Ivo, I'll ignore your love for Urlacher, but respect that I don't want man-love shoved down my throat, especially a Chicago Boar.
I get that you have respect for certain players, it's just completely against my fan grain to give one iota of respect to the fookin' Chi-ca-go Boars. Call me a homer, but the only Boar I've ever respected is Walter, just because he was so freaking special.
I know there was a thread about who our most hated rival was and I was stunned so many said the Vikings. I've been following the Packers since the mid 60's and nobody is even close, I hate the Bares.
Let's just kick their azzes next week and we'll be all good. And I hope and pray we face them in the playoffs to once and for ever quiet any comparison to their team this year to our overachieving heros.
 

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In Rodgers' last 4 games against the Bears he has put up 17, 21, 21 and 17 points. While not terrible it certainly doesn't allow the defense room for much error. I'd be surprised if the Packers put more than 24 up.

But hey, maybe he'll surprise me. I just don't see us blowing out the Bears, Whether their 7-9 or 11-5 they always play us tough.
I hear ya, you'd be surprised. Well, be prepared to be surprised. The one thing you can count on with MM's teams is the offense is slow to get started but lights out once they are rolling. And they are rolling.
I expect a tough game as well, it's the best rivalry in football IMO but this is a different Packers team that's facing them. And the sad truth of it for all Boars fans is that they are not nearly as diverse as the Green Bay Packers.
The defense will never be as bad as they were against Arizona last year in the playoffs, it's just not gonna happen. This D held Tom Brady to 150 yards or so of passing. Stopped the vaunted Big Blue running attack and humiliated their "elite" QB.
It's easy to see, this game could very well be a blowout. I'm not predicting it, just hoping for it as it's possible.
 

ivo610

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The point I"m trying to make it that stats don't tell the whole story or they do if you want to make a point. Insurance companies do it all the time to ask for more money.
Tell ya what Ivo, I'll ignore your love for Urlacher, but respect that I don't want man-love shoved down my throat, especially a Chicago Boar.
I get that you have respect for certain players, it's just completely against my fan grain to give one iota of respect to the fookin' Chi-ca-go Boars. Call me a homer, but the only Boar I've ever respected is Walter, just because he was so freaking special.
I know there was a thread about who our most hated rival was and I was stunned so many said the Vikings. I've been following the Packers since the mid 60's and nobody is even close, I hate the Bares.
Let's just kick their azzes next week and we'll be all good. And I hope and pray we face them in the playoffs to once and for ever quiet any comparison to their team this year to our overachieving heros.

What about Singletary, Sayers, Butkus, Ditka, and Nagurski? Just Payton?

Did you hate the packers bringing in McMahon and McMichaels?

I hate the vikings more because of the more recent rivalry and since I went to UW-Eau Claire so I have a bunch of friends who are vikings fans. Monday morning class would start with me and one of my favorite teachers jawing back and forth about packers vikings.
 

DevilDon

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What about Singletary, Sayers, Butkus, Ditka, and Nagurski? Just Payton?

Did you hate the packers bringing in McMahon and McMichaels?

I hate the vikings more because of the more recent rivalry and since I went to UW-Eau Claire so I have a bunch of friends who are vikings fans. Monday morning class would start with me and one of my favorite teachers jawing back and forth about packers vikings.
I gotta tell ya, one of my worst memories ever as a Packer fan was bringing in McMahon. I remember that he wore a Bears hat for the team photo with the president. That's the time I respected him, he was never a Packer, just a number on the team.
Nope, no love for those others, in fact, Singletary has proven to be every bit the buffoon I always thought he was. Ditka is like a poor man's version of the Jet's Ryan, fat *** goof. Lotsa talk, lean on the players to make you look good.
I forgot about Sayers, what makes it so that the Boars have good players at LB but complete knobshines, and good RB who are class guys?
I get the hate from a location standpoint, and I'm not surprised, I lived in Milwaukee for many years and Boars fans are abundant. But all things considered, I think the tradition of the franchise is the rivalry between us and the Boars. I get your ambition, but I just think of Minnesota as pitiful, even when they're good they're pitiful. The Bares on the other hand, yes, I respect them at some level, that's why I hate them so much, they play us tough each and every game. A 21 point lead isn't enough, gotta pummel them.
As much as that doesn't make sense it does, I hate the Boars because they CAN be good, you just never know when it will be. But they will never, can never, hope to be the equal of the Green Bay Packers.
 

JBlood

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So if I'm reading it right, we're 0-3 against teams with a luck rating of -1.64 or better.

Bears are -2.11

... I have a hard time swallowing that the Falcons should be 5-8 or 6-7, though.

Read the article. It's all based on efficiency ratings for passing, running, defending the pass, and defending the run.

As we all know, you can dominate in all categories and still lose a game.

I don't trust all stats, but the Bears have clearly been lucky this year by the fact that they've had essentially no injuries, if for no other reason.
 

red4tribe

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Read the article. It's all based on efficiency ratings for passing, running, defending the pass, and defending the run.

As we all know, you can dominate in all categories and still lose a game.

I don't trust all stats, but the Bears have clearly been lucky this year by the fact that they've had essentially no injuries, if for no other reason.

Does it include Special Teams?
 

JBlood

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Does it include Special Teams?

The guys that run the site also have another article on the importance of special teams. (Advanced NFL Stats: Importance of Special Teams)

In summary:

"So according to this analysis, special teams accounts for about 20% of the game in terms of winning and losing. In a way, this is disproportionately strong. ST plays comprise far fewer than 1 in every 5 plays on the field. "
 

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For all of you who discount "luck" as an important factor in the NFL, I refer you to

Advanced NFL Stats: The Randomness of Win-Loss Records

They did a recent writeup also, explaining "Big Win %" and mixing that with the "luck" factor.

Advanced NFL Stats Community: "BigWin%" Looks At the Coming Playoffs

A snippet from the article:

Yet on reflection it shouldn't have been -- nothing else seems possible, given a key fact reported on this site: half of all NFL games are decided by luck.

Say a 10-6 record is needed to make the playoffs and two teams do it. In each's 16-game schedule eight games are determined by luck and eight by merit. Team A is a bit lucky and two of its "luck" games switch to wins, so it goes 6-2 in them (instead of 4-4). In its "merit" games it need go only 4-4, 50%, for its 10-6. But Team B is a bit unlucky and two of its "luck" games switch to losses, so it goes 2-6 in them. It has to be powerful enough to go 8-0 in its "merit" games, 100%, to get to 10-6.

Head-to-head, Team B should score 75% against Team A in spite of their equal 10-6 records, because on the merits it is a 100-0 team playing a 50-50 team. (In four games versus A it should go 2-0 on merit and 1-1 on luck.)

And this points to something else: As Team B, much the better team, did worse in close games but better in one-sided ones, it is success not in close games but in one-sided games (those determined "on merit") that predicts success in the playoffs. Among teams with equal records, those that win more one-sided games and lose more close games will do better in the post season.

The article defines the Packers as this years "Team B," having more wins based on merit than on luck. After 14 games played, Green Bay ranked 3rd in big win % while Chicago is tied for 12th with Atlanta.

What it boils down to is, despite the w/l record, this is a damn good, tough football team. We can do some damage in the post season, starting by winning this week against a very solid Bears team.
 

98Redbird

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People always talk about luck this season with the Bears, and I agree they've been nutty lucky. I HATE the Bears (Mostly because of their ignorant fans) but the fact is, they won the division, we are fighting for a wild card spot. Luck or no luck, all that matters are W's and L's... We need to go get some W's...
 

SpartaChris

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People always talk about luck this season with the Bears, and I agree they've been nutty lucky. I HATE the Bears (Mostly because of their ignorant fans) but the fact is, they won the division, we are fighting for a wild card spot. Luck or no luck, all that matters are W's and L's... We need to go get some W's...

Agreed.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Yes, the Bears have had a lot of luck go their way, but they were also able to capitalize on that luck and get the wins needed to seal the deal for a division win. Call it what you will, but they're in regardless of what happens Sunday, and we're not.
 

98Redbird

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Agreed.

"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Yes, the Bears have had a lot of luck go their way, but they were also able to capitalize on that luck and get the wins needed to seal the deal for a division win. Call it what you will, but they're in regardless of what happens Sunday, and we're not.

That's one thing that the Bears have always done well, if you give them an opportunity to capitalize on a mistake, they usually don't miss. The amount of opportunities we've let slip through our fingers this year, whether it be dropped int's/dropped passes that could have gone for 6, short yardage situations, FG's, crazy special teams plays, poor clock/game management, is crazy. You very seldom see the Bears miss on those opportunities. This is a VERY good team with probably some of the best potential in the entire league, so to lose these games on missed opportunities and crap like this is beyond frustrating...

I honestly believe that this team has the talent, even with 300 guys on IR like this year to play toe to toe with ANY team in this league. We've shown it numerous time (Falcons/Patriots). But this team ALWAYS seems to have that one play where they blow their own foot clean off and it comes back to be the deciding factor.
 

ivo610

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"Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."

Thats great quote for anyone that says a team is lucky. I bet Lombardi would agree 100%

I cant say we lost the games because of bad luck. Each game had its reasons but bad luck isnt one of them.
 

DevilDon

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That's one thing that the Bears have always done well, if you give them an opportunity to capitalize on a mistake, they usually don't miss. The amount of opportunities we've let slip through our fingers this year, whether it be dropped int's/dropped passes that could have gone for 6, short yardage situations, FG's, crazy special teams plays, poor clock/game management, is crazy. You very seldom see the Bears miss on those opportunities. This is a VERY good team with probably some of the best potential in the entire league, so to lose these games on missed opportunities and crap like this is beyond frustrating...

I honestly believe that this team has the talent, even with 300 guys on IR like this year to play toe to toe with ANY team in this league. We've shown it numerous time (Falcons/Patriots). But this team ALWAYS seems to have that one play where they blow their own foot clean off and it comes back to be the deciding factor.
Well to be honest, I don't think you're talking about a "luck" factor in what you're pointing to. Luck is getting a pick because a receiver tipped it, instead of jumping a route.
The best example of luck is injuries. Our starting QB was injured vrs NE. Good luck for them, bad luck for us. There is no stat that I'm aware of that accounts for it, you just have to be familiar with their season.
Chicago has been relatively lucky with injuries while GB has been unlucky. I think you get my point.
I don't mean to dismiss your points, but those are situations that point to execution, not luck. If this team has any luck at all they'll win the game. Why they're so good is they don't get it and still win.
Great football will beat a little luck all day and the Packers play superior football to the Boars.
It's all semantics Redbird, but I think you get my gist.
 

DevilDon

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Thats great quote for anyone that says a team is lucky. I bet Lombardi would agree 100%

I cant say we lost the games because of bad luck. Each game had its reasons but bad luck isnt one of them.
BS kind of saying, how do you prepare for the lottery? Luck is it's own kinda demon. If you have it, you live by it.
The reason the Packers are so scary is they've not drank from the cup of luck all season, they do it on their own.
Coach Lombardi lost games too, he knew how dark that angel can be.
 

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A few years ago our O-linemen were laughing about the way they blocked Urlacher around like a pin ball in the run game. That was in the pre-Campen, pre-Colledge days. I don't think Urlacher has improved since then. It's more like our O-line has had many pathetic games, the most pathetic being the game in Chicago.

I think we arrived last Sunday though, handling a better D than the Bares. If that's true, then ARod gets the time to embarass the Barelys worse than NE embarassed them.

Mucho thanks to JBlood for putting up the luck post. Verrrry interesting! The luck of the bounce of the ball is central to the excitement of football.

We live in NW Wisco where the Viqueens have been the most hated team for a long time. You have to live in or near the TC to really understand and hate the Queens.

Now, however, I've had to move the Bares back into 1st place as most hated team. The Queens are laughable.
 

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What do the Bears do well??? They don't beat themselves. What do the Packers do well???? Let other teams get back in the game and fail to put the nail in the coffin. We have to get up early and put the pressure on Cutler. Our special teams better step up. Hester is not a 300 lb O-lineman if you catch my drift.
 

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